Blog posts of '2025' 'April'

Gold swings wildly on Trump tariff plan as uncertainty prevails

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: On Wednesday afternoon, President Trump announced sweeping new tariffs, stoking global growth, inflation, and trade war worries. Uncertainty prevails, leaving markets in turmoil.

Trump promised that the tariffs would bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S., boost national security, and shrink the trade deficit. While he listed a host of companies that have already pledged significant investments in America, investors clearly have their doubts.

Fitch Ratings calculates that the average tariff rate charged on goods imported into the U.S. is increasing from 2.5% to 22%. “You can throw most forecasts out the door, if this tariff rate stays on for an extended period of time,” said Olu Sonola, head of U.S. economic research at Fitch, in an AP article.

Therein lies the rub. Nobody quite knows what the global impact of these new trade policies will be. Business decisions will be delayed until the dust settles. Investors will continue to migrate to safety.

Let the negotiations begin. It certainly behooves U.S. trading partners to do what's reasonable to maintain access to the world's largest consumer market. Let's hope calmer heads prevail, common ground is found, and deals are struck.

I heard a small business owner on the radio this morning say she has no idea how companies in her supply chain are going to be impacted by these new tariffs. That means she has no idea how her input costs might change, which makes business planning all but impossible.

Challenger Layoffs surged 103.2k to 275.2k in March, versus 172.0k in February. Announced government layoffs were 154.7k as DOGE cuts bite.

Trade Deficit narrowed by 6.1% to -$122.7 bln in February, outside expectations of -$109.0 bln, versus a revised -$130.7 bln in January (was -$131.4 bln).

Initial Jobless Claims fell 6k to 219k in the week ended 29-Mar, below expectations of 225k, versus 225k in the previous week. Continuing claims jumped 56k to1,903k in the 22-Mar week, versus 1,847l in the previous week.

Services PMI was revised up to 54.4 for March, versus a preliminary read of 54.3 and 51.0 in February. Prices went unrevised at 53.5, up from 51.6 in February.  

Services ISM fell 2.7 points to 52.8 in March, below expectations of  53.5, versus 53.5 in February. Prices moderated to 60.9 from 62.6 in February.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: -$30.02 (-0.96%)
5-Day Change: +$52.19 (+1.71%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,3,164.72
52-Week Range: $2,270.21 - $3,164.72
Weighted Alpha: +37.30

Gold reached a record high of $3,164.72 in Asian trading, driven by the initial reaction to President Trump's tariff announcement. However, as equities and the broader commodities market sold off, deleveraging pressures drove the yellow metal to a new low for the week at $3,061.72 before renewed buying interest developed.



Gold and other precious metals were specifically excluded from Trump's tariffs, which has led the contango in the futures market to nearly halve overnight. "The premium of Comex futures over London spot prices was last at around $20 per troy ounce compared with $43 on Wednesday. Usually, it is below $10," according to a Reuters article.

Gold stored in Comex warehouses surged to a record-high 44.5 Moz in recent months, a 2.6x increase over the 17.1 Moz held back in November. Flows to the U.S. were initially driven by tariff fears, but then became a self-perpetuating arbitrage.

Given the ongoing uncertainty, I don't know that gold is going to start flowing out of Comex any time soon. However, a diminished tariff threat and lower futures premiums should slow the inflows.

The climb in U.S. trading back above $3,100 takes some of the pressure off the downside. The midpoint of today's $103 range comes in at $3,113.22, and it was exceeded along with the 61.8% retracement level at $3,125.27.

While it's premature to suggest the corrective low is in, I find myself leaning in that direction. A breach of Tuesday's high at $3,147.41 would boost my confidence as it would also exceed the 78.6% retracement level.

At that point, I'd look for a retest of today's high and a continuation of the march toward $3,500. Today's setback allows us to refine short-term targets based on Fibonacci analysis to $3,192.74, $3,228.37.

Today's low at  $3,061.72 now protects Friday's low at $3,054.50. The 20-day MA at $3,022.46 stands in front of key short-term support at $3,003.62/$3,000.00.

Silver plunged in reaction to yesterday's tariff news, weighed by fears of a global trade war and mounting growth risks. The white metal was down more than 6% at one point and set a four-week low at $31.833. It was the biggest one-day (open to low) percentage drop since 4-Aug'24.



While gold has recovered more than half of the intraday losses as safe-haven seekers stepped back in to buy, silver, which derives most of its demand from industry, remains on the ropes. At this point, it will probably take fresh record highs in gold to provide some underpinning for silver.

The white metal took out both the 20- and the 50-day moving averages, leaving the downside vulnerable. Scope is seen for additional losses toward $31.658 (78.6% retrace of the rally from $30.873 to $34.543) and 31.454/31,386, where the 100-day and 20-week moving averages converge.

A climb back above $33 is needed to ease pressure on the downside. The midpoint of today's range is at $32.919, and the halfway back point of the whole decline from last week's high at $34.543 comes in at $33.188.

Silver was also excluded from tariffs, and like gold, the futures premium over spot has collapsed. The contango in front-month (May) silver futures is just 5¢ currently. It was 84¢ a week ago.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver consolidate ahead of tariff announcement

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Markets are eagerly awaiting the latest tariff announcement from the White House. Reciprocal tariffs have been priced in, but President Trump is thought to be considering more sweeping levies that could further escalate trade tensions.

A delay of new tariffs or a more measured announcement, potentially stemming from concessions made by U.S. trading partners, could temper market uncertainty and boost risk appetite. Risk-off sentiment prevails ahead of the announcement, scheduled for 4:00 PM EDT today.

Russia is calling up 160,000 new conscripts to its military, raising the upper age threshold from 27 to 30. The implication is that Russia is anticipating that the war in Ukraine will continue.

Finland has announced that it will join other countries neighboring Russia and pull out of the Ottawa Convention that bans anti-personnel mines, suggesting heightened worries about Russian aggression. President Alexander Stubb said Finland would also boost defense spending over the next several years from 2.4% to 3.0% of GDP.

Meanwhile, China concluded two days of war games around Taiwan that included live-fire exercises. The 'Strait Thunder' war games coincided with U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's first visit to the region.

MBA Mortgage Applications fell 1.6% in the 28-Mar week, weighed by both purchases and refis. The 30-year mortgage rate ticked down to 6.70%.

ADP Employment Survey showed private payrolls rose by 155k in March, above expectations of +110k, versus a revised +84k in February (was +77k). The beat implies modest upside risk for Friday's NFP report.

Factory Orders rose 0.6% in February, above expectations of +0.4%, versus a revised +1.8% in January (was +1.7%). The ex-trans increase was 0.4%. Inventories rose 0.4%.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: -$0.15 (0.0%)
5-Day Change: +$101.60 (+3.36%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,147.41
52-Week Range: $2,268.72 - $3,147.41
Weighted Alpha: +38.05

Gold is consolidating within Tuesday's range ahead of President Trump's latest proclamation on tariffs. Having set a new all-time high just yesterday, the bias remains to the upside.  



Ongoing uncertainty on trade is clouding the picture for growth, inflation, and, by extension, Fed policy. Investors have been leaning into that uncertainty in favor of safe-haven assets such as gold and Treasuries.

Something beyond the reciprocal tariffs already signalled by Trump, such as sweeping 20% tariffs on most goods imported into the U.S., would be viewed as another step toward an all-out trade war. Many trading partners have already indicated they would deploy retaliatory measures if warranted.

A breach of chart/Fibonacci resistance at $3,147.41/$3,149.84 would shift focus to $3,200 initially. Further out targets at $3,300 and $3,500 would also gain credence.

Yesterday's higher high and lower close constitute a simple reversal day. Additional corrective action is a possibility given the overbought condition of the market and the outside chance that the White House sets forth a more measured approach to trade.

Keep an eye on closeby supports at $3,106.06/$3,105.29 and $3,100. Sendonday supports are defined by Monday's low at $3,078.93 and Friday's low at $3,054.50. The 20-day MA at $3,012.43 now stands in front of the more important $3,003.62/$3,000.00 zone.

Brace yourselves, things could get interesting this afternoon. Regardless of the tariff news, the dominant trend remains decisively bullish. Setbacks are likely to be viewed as buying opportunities.

Silver is trading higher for the first session in four, but remains confined to Tuesday's range, awaiting this afternoon's tariff announcement. The white metal continues to be underpinned by strength in gold and copper, rising rate cut expectations, and a generally soft dollar.



The U.S. imports a significant amount of silver from Mexico and Canada. Silver is largely a byproduct of copper mining.

Levies on silver, or copper for that matter, could impact both the supply and the demand side of the equation. If record-high copper prices are sustained, one might expect more will be mined, resulting in greater silver supply. At the same time, higher silver (and copper) prices will temper demand in some segments of the market.

The technical bias for silver remains to the upside in the wake of recent five-month highs. A breach of last week's peak at $34.543 would clear the way for a challenge of the multi-decade high at $34.853 that was set in October.

Initial chart support at $33.549/$33.521 is bolstered by the 20-day moving average at $33.490. A breach of the latter would leave the low from 21-Mar at $32.767 vulnerable to a test. Below that, the 50-day MA comes in at $32.423.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold eases from another record high as market awaits tomorrow's tariff announcements

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Market angst remains elevated amid worries that President Trump will announce levies that are broader than the targeted reciprocal tariffs previously threatened. Trump says Wednesday is America's "Liberation Day," but many view sweeping tariffs as a significant escalation of a developing trade war.

There is still lingering hope that U.S. trade partners will make concessions to avoid or minimize tariffs. However, headlines about planned retaliations abound.

Risk appetite has rebounded modestly as mounting growth risks lift rate cut expectations. Even though inflation risks are also rising, Fed funds futures are now pricing in just over 75 bps in easing by December.

Prospects for Fed easing and safe-haven demand for Treasuries are weighing on yields more broadly, which is capping the upside in the dollar. The dollar index is consolidating just off five-month lows set on 18-Mar at 103.20.

Manufacturing PMI for March was revised up to 50.2 from a preliminary print of 49.8, versus 52.7 in February. That leaves the indicator in expansion territory for a third straight month. Input prices rose to a 31-month high of 66.0 from 62.1 in February.

Manufacturing ISM fell to a four-month low of 49.0 in March, below expectations of 50.2, versus 50.3 in February.  Prices paid surged 7.0 points to a 33-month high of 69.4 from 62.4 in February. Employment slid -2.9 points to 44.7, the lowest since September.

JOLTS Job Openings declined 194k to 7,568k in February, below expectations of 7,630k, versus an upward revised 7,762k in January ( was 7,740k).

Construction Spending rose 0.7% in February, better than the +0.2% the market was expecting, versus a revised -0.5% in January (was -0.2%).

RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index fell 1.4% to a six-month low of 49.1 in April, below expectations of 50.1, versus 49.8 in March. "As consumer confidence declines even a little, it's not unreasonable to wonder if the source of reduced confidence can be found in Washington, D.C," said John Tamny, the editor of RealClearMarkets.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: +$9.25 (+0.30%)
5-Day Change: +$106.85 (+3.54%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,3,147.41
52-Week Range: $2,248.01 - $3,147.41
Weighted Alpha: +38.41

Gold reached a record high of $3,147.41 in overseas trading to begin Q2, driven by persistent haven demand. However, the yellow metal backed off from that new high on profit taking ahead of tomorrow's expected tariff announcements.



Despite today's setback, the fundamentals remain broadly supportive for gold. In fact, it's a bit of a perfect storm.

The threat of a trade war is stoking fears of a recession and prompting a rotation out of stocks to safe havens. Rate cut expectations are on the rise and weighing on the dollar, even as concerns about inflation are ratcheting higher.

The war in Gaza is back underway, while hopes for a ceasefire in Ukraine have dimmed.

An FT article notes that "investors have poured more than $19.2bn into gold-backed exchange traded funds during the first quarter." That's the biggest inflow since the pandemic.

“Uncertainty is one of the main factors that has led to a renewed interest in gold,” said Krishan Gopaul, senior analyst at the World Gold Council. If there is one thing we seem to have in spades since the beginning of the year, it's uncertainty.

If President Trump backs off from tariffs again, or U.S. trading partners make concessions, we could see a multi-session correction in gold. However, pullbacks are still likely to be viewed as buying opportunities as the aforementioned uncertainty persists.

A minor chart point mentioned is yesterday's commentary at $3,105.29 marks first support and protects the $3,100.00 level. More important supports are defined by Monday's low at $3,078.93 and Friday's low at $3,054.50. The 20-day MA now bolsters the $3,003.62/$3,000.00 zone.

Today's high at $3,147.41 was just shy of the $3,149.84 Fibonacci objective, reinforcing this level as good resistance. An eventual breach of this level would target $3,200 initially, but would lend additional credence to the scenario that suggests potential to $3,500.

Silver is trading lower for a third consecutive session as mounting trade and growth risks stoke worries about demand destruction. While the retreat in gold is seen as corrective, it does apply some additional weight to the white metal. The same can be said for copper's drop from last week's record high.



Minor chart support at $33.521 (26-Mar low) is bolstered by the 20-day moving average at $33.431 today. A breach of the latter would leave the low from 21-Mar at $32.767 vulnerable to a test. Below that, the 50-day MA comes in at $32.423.

A climb back above $34 is needed to revive confidence in the anticipated challenge of the multi-decade high at $34.853. Last week's high at $34.543 now defines a solid intervening upside barrier.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.