Blog posts of '2026' 'April'

Gold and silver rise for a fourth straight session on de-escalation hopes

Outside Market Developments: Optimism about the potential wind-down of U.S. military operations in the Middle East has stoked risk appetite, knocking oil off its recent war-driven highs. President Trump has signaled that the U.S. offensive could end within 2-3 weeks, and he will address the nation this evening.

De-escalation prospects in the Middle East eased energy supply concerns and will erode stagflation fears. Treasury yields retreated modestly, while the U.S. dollar came under pressure for a second straight session. Odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut later this year edged higher, though the shift was not meaningful.

U.S. stocks ended March with significant losses; the S&P 500 declined about 5.1%, the DJIA fell 5.4%, and the Nasdaq dropping 4.8%, as the Middle East conflict drove surging oil prices, heightened volatility, and significant deleveraging. Despite the rebound on the final day of the month, Q1'26 marked the worst start to a year for equities since 2022.

Today's U.S. data added to the risk-on theme. The ADP report revealed that U.S. private employers added 62k jobs in March, beating expectations of 41k and extending a modest hiring pace, with job gains driven mainly by small employers while pay growth held steady. Meanwhile, retail sales rose 0.6% in February on expectations of +0.5%, versus -0.1% in January. Retail sales accelerated to a +3.7% annualized pace, from 3.2% in January.

The ADP print implies that Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report will likely show modest private-sector hiring around or above consensus (~50k-60k). That would temper the concerns of a sharp labor market slowdown that arose after February's -92k print. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.4%, while average hourly earning rising 0.3%.

With the long holiday weekend ahead, position squaring could lead to volatility into Thursday's close. Most major markets will be closed on Good Friday, and some, including London, will be closed on Easter Monday as well.

GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$64.43 (+1.38%)
5-Day Change: +$249.24 (+5.53%)
YTD Range: $4,100.32 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $2,961.83 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +52.52

Gold is trading higher for a fourth consecutive day, buoyed by hopes that the Iran war and the attendant oil shock are winding down. The yellow metal suffered its worst monthly performance in over 17 years in March, dropping more than 11% amid fading rate-cut hopes, dollar strength, and deleveraging pressures. Despite the slide, gold still managed to notch a nearly 8% gain in Q1, thanks to strong gains early in the year. 



One never quite knows what President Trump might say when he addresses the nation, but the supposition is that he will lay out his plan for concluding U.S. military action against Iran. That could perpetuate the rally into the final session of the week on Thursday. On the other hand, something unexpected from the President could send markets reeling once again.

For now, falling oil prices are easing inflation concerns, driving a retreat in Treasury yields and weighing on the dollar – both of which are providing fresh support to gold. A constructive message from President Trump on de-escalation could prompt markets to begin pricing in a Fed rate cut later this year, though expectations are likely to remain anchored toward the back half of 2026.

Tuesday's close back above the 100-day moving average provided some technical encouragement, leading to today's upside follow-through. The falling 20-day moving average is just above $4,800 and has come within striking distance. A close above the 20-day would shift focus to the halfway-back point of the entire decline from January's record high at $5,595.02. A short-term move into the upper half of this year's broad range would bode well for a return to the $5,000 zone.

On the downside, today's Asian low at $4,662.65 should help keep the market above the 100-day $4,648.06. If the 100-day can't be sustained on a close basis, lows from earlier in the week at $4,484.51 and $4,420.80 would be in play.

I expect position squaring ahead of Thursday's close, with traders reluctant to hold positions into the long weekend, especially with NFP out on Friday. We may start higher tomorrow, but look for prices to ease into the close. 


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.245(-0.33%)
5-Day Change: +$4.083 (+5.73%)
YTD Range: $61.036 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +135.96

Silver is also up for a fourth session in a row, but negligibly so today. While underpinned by stronger gold and a weaker dollar. Lingering growth risks appear to be providing some headwind for the predominantly industrial metal.



The white metal has not been able to punch convincingly back above its 100-day MA, and the declining 20-day is moving in to bolster resistance, leaving the upside limited for now. I'd really like to see a rebound above $80 to set a more favorable tone.

An NFP beat on Friday could lay the groundwork for such a move. An 80-handle would bode well for further retracement toward the $84.183 Fibonacci level.

Failure to register a close above the 100-day could hasten the bulls back to the sidelines ahead of the holiday weekend. I suspect they're headed there anyway, and that could also explain silver's lag today. The risk associated with a long weekend and a jobs report when markets are closed is just too great in light of the recent extreme volatility.

Wednesday's Asian low at $73.792 marks first support and protects the trendline off last week's low that comes in around $70.460. A breach of the trendline would favor a retreat below $70 and a retest of Monday's low at $67.742.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

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