Blog posts of '2026' 'May'

Gold and silver poised for first higher weekly closes in three

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: U.S. and Iranian forces exchanged fire in the Strait of Hormuz on Friday as three U.S. Navy warships transited the waterway. "No U.S. assets were struck. U.S. Central Command eliminated inbound threats and targeted Iranian military facilities responsible for attacking U.S. forces including missile and drone launch sites; command and control locations; and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance nodes," according to CENTCOM.

Iran accused the U.S. of initiating the clash by targeting its vessels and coastal areas, calling it a ceasefire violation. President Trump described the incident as minor and said the fragile ceasefire remains in effect. “They trifled with us today. We blew them away,” said Trump.

Iran is still reviewing the latest U.S. peace proposal. Trump continues to say that talks are “going very well,” but need to conclude quickly.

April nonfarm payroll rose by 115k, beating consensus expectations of around 60k, with gains led by health care, transportation/warehousing, and retail trade. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, while wage growth remained modest at +0.2% m/m, painting a picture of a resilient labor market and underpinning risk appetite.

Job market resilience generally makes the Fed more comfortable holding interest rates steady, allowing it to continue focusing on fighting sticky inflation. The central bank can afford to wait for clearer signs that inflation is easing without risking a significant rise in unemployment.

Markets will be focused on inflation data in the week ahead. April CPI comes out on Tuesday, and PPI is up on Wednesday. These inflation readings, alongside housing data and FedSpeak, will shape expectations for the path of interest rates, while ongoing developments around the U.S.-Iran ceasefire and oil supply risks will keep geopolitical risks in play.

Additionally, the term of Fed chair Powell ends on 15-May. He is widely expected to be replaced by Kevin Warsh, pending final Senate confirmation. Powell could stay on as interim chair if necessary. I'm not expecting anything definitive on policy from Warsh until after he's presided over his first FOMC meeting.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$32.70 (+0.70%)
5-Day Change: +$100.86 (+2.19%)
YTD Range: $4,100.32 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,127.12 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +38.50

Gold heads into the weekend with a bit of a bid, and appears poised for its first higher weekly close in three. The yellow metal has been underpinned by optimism around Middle East de-escalation, lower oil, and a weaker dollar, allowing it to largely shrug off the most recent clash in the Strait of Hormuz and stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data.



The previous two closes have been right around the 20-day MA. I'd like to see a more convincing close above the 20-day to set up upside follow-through in the week ahead to challenge the 100-day MA at $4,783.91. Intervening resistance is noted at the convergence of this week's high and the 50-day MA at $4,764.57/$4,768.85.

An eventual convincing breach of the 100-day MA would bode well for a short-term retest of the mid-April high at $4,886.18. Penetration of that high would favor further retracement toward the $5,000 level.

However, price action will continue to hinge on Middle East headlines. If gold can't sustain the move above the 20-day MA, look for a retest of the $4,600 zone. A retreat below $4,600 would leave Monday's low at $4,503.02 vulnerable to a challenge.

While gold is entrenched within the range that formed earlier in the year, the long-term outlook remains structurally bullish. Most major banks are forecasting prices to climb toward $5,400 – $6,300 by the end of 2026 – 2027, with potential as high as $7,000 – $10,000 by 2030, driven by sustained central bank accumulation, investor diversification away from the dollar, elevated geopolitical risks, and persistent global debt and inflation concerns.

Incrementum noted in its latest IGWT Report: "[G]old ETFs recorded one of the largest monthly outflows in recent years, totaling 85 tonnes in March, while COMEX gold deliveries continued to decline from recent highs. Together, these dynamics point to easing speculative activity, a development that bodes well for the health and sustainability of the long-term gold bull market."


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$2.097 (+2.67%)
5-Day Change: +$5.091 (+6.76%)
YTD Range: $61.036 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $31.701 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +130.30

Silver continues to probe above the 100-day moving average and appears on track for its first higher weekly close in three. The white metal is being buoyed by the de-escalating situation in the Middle East and a weaker dollar, leading to a three-week high on Thursday, and what looks like it will be a more than 6% gain for the week.



Strong tech/AI earnings in recent weeks are contributing to the bid. They reinforce confidence in sustained heavy spending on cloud infrastructure, data centers, and AI hardware – sectors that are driving accelerating industrial silver demand for servers, electronics, connectors, and thermal management.

Industrial applications now make up nearly 60% of total silver demand (a record share). While overall industrial fabrication dipped slightly last year due to solar cutbacks, non-PV sectors continue showing structural, inelastic growth, contributing to persistent market deficits. This shift toward high-tech, hard-to-substitute uses underpins silver’s strong industrial floor.

While silver remains in the lower half of the wide $121.630/$61.036 range from Q1 of this year, the supply/demand equation remains broadly constructive. A convincing close above the 100-day at $80.633 would bode well for a retest of the mid-April high at $83.046. Above the latter, the midpoint of that wide range at $91.333 would be a logical attraction.

The convergence of the 50- and 20-day moving averages at the $76.798/$76.475 zone will be the important support zone to watch in the week ahead. Intervening supports are marked by today's low at $78.341 and Thursday's low at $77.005.

If silver can't hold above the 20-day, further consolidating in the lower half of the range would become likely. Potential would initially be back to this week's low at $72.264.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver rebound on de-escalation optimism, weaker dollar

Outside Market Developments: President Trump posted that Project Freedom in the Strait of Hormuz will be paused for a brief period to see if a final agreement to end the war can be achieved. "Great Progress has been made toward a Complete and Final Agreement," wrote Trump.

The post revived hopes that an end to the war may be near. This optimism is in sharp contrast to events earlier in the week when the fragile ceasefire seemed on the verge of collapse as both sides were shooting at each other.

Oil prices eased, moderating inflation risks. While Fed funds futures reflect a modestly more dovish tilt, expectations are still that the central bank is on hold for the remainder of the year. Nonetheless, the dollar index eked out a 10-week low.



Trump followed up with a fresh threat to resume the bombing of Iran "at a much higher level and intensity," if Tehran doesn't make a deal. This signals that the temporary de-escalation is conditional and that the U.S. is prepared to escalate significantly if talks fail.

Today's ADP report showed that U.S. private employers added 109k jobs in April, above expectations of +99k, versus a revised 61k in March. The report suggests continued labor market resilience and generates some optimism heading into Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, where consensus is +60k jobs.

Hopes for peace, lower energy prices, the ADP beat, and solid tech/AI earnings are all contributing to risk-on sentiment.
Markets will remain firmly in the grip of Middle East headlines.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$160.78 (+3.53%)
5-Day Change: +$145.29 (+3.20%)
YTD Range: $4,100.32 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,127.12 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +37.39

Gold jumped to new highs for the week on fresh optimism about progress toward a U.S.-Iran peace deal. Oil prices fell, relieving some inflationary pressure, and the dollar retreated.



The probe above the 20-day moving average is encouraging, but last week’s high at $4,729.72 remains intact, as early signs of de-escalation were quickly followed by threats of renewed bombing. Middle East headlines will remain the dominant driver of market direction.

A close above the 20-day and a breach of $4,729.72 would bode well for an upside extension to challenge the $4,776.75/$4.790.35 zone, where the 100- and 50-day MAs are converging. Above that, the mid-April high at $4,888.18 would be back in play.

On the downside, intraday support at $4,661.89 is bolstered by former resistance at $4,659.44. A move back below this area would suggest potential back below $4,600, leaving Monday's low at $4,503.02 vulnerable to a retest.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$4.791 (+6.58%)
5-Day Change: +$5.832 (+8.18%)
YTD Range: $61.036 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $31.701 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +117.50

Silver has surged more than 6% intraday, buoyed by optimism over Middle East de-escalation, a weaker dollar, and better-than-expected April jobs growth. Strong earnings from tech/AI companies provide additional support for the white metal, reinforcing the narrative of ongoing robust AI infrastructure spending.



While silver remains entrenched in the lower half of the broad range established earlier in the year, today's tests above the 20- and 50-day moving averages offer encouragement to the bull camp. A close above those key indicators would bode well for a short-term push back above $80 to challenge the rising 100-day MA at $80.372. Above the latter, focus would return to the 17-Apr high at $83.046.

The 20-day MA at $76.098 marks first support, which protects today's early U.S. low at $75.845. If silver can't hold above the latter, the lows for the week at $72.658/264 would be back in play, with potential for a challenge of the $70 zone.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver weighed by rising Middle East tensions

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: The week begins with heightened Middle East tensions. Iran claims that it struck a U.S. Navy warship in the Strait of Hormuz with missiles. CENTCOM confirmed Iran launched an attack, but said, “No U.S. Navy ships have been struck.”

U.S. forces retaliated, destroying six Iranian small boats that were involved in the attack. While the ceasefire has not been formally ended, with both sides firing on the other, the trade is understandably concerned.

 With passage through the Strait being actively challenged by Iran, and the U.S. continuing its blockade, oil prices remain elevated near four-year highs. Brent crude continues to test above $120 per barrel.

Persistent inflation concerns are keeping dovish Fed bets in check, underpinning yields and the dollar. The greenback is also garnering safe-haven interest. 

On Friday, President Trump threatened to raise tariffs on cars and trucks imported from Europe from 15% to 25%. This reamplifies trade uncertainty, adding to the bid in the dollar.

Markets will continue to react to Middle East headlines. Focus this week will also be on U.S. jobs data, culminating in Friday's nonfarm payrolls report for April. Consensus is currently +60k payrolls with the jobless rate steady at 4.3%.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$52.78 (-1.14%)
5-Day Change: -$158.01 (-3.38%)
YTD Range: $4,100.32 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,127.12 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +30.72

Gold is under pressure to begin the week amid heightened Middle East tensions, higher oil prices, and a stronger dollar. The yellow metal has notched a fresh four-week low but remains above the midpoint of the range that has emerged since the March low was established at $4,100.32.

 

With gold well below the 20-, 50-, and 100-day moving averages, the downside is seen as more vulnerable. If the midpoint of the range-within-the-range at $4,494.25 gives way, look for additional retracement to the 4,401.28 level. Below the latter, the rising 200-day MA at $4,299.85 and the $4,268.92 Fibonacci level would be in play.

While the short-term technical picture has deteriorated in recent weeks, the yellow is still up nearly 40% from a year ago. 
Longer-term bullish factors such as central bank buying, structural demand, and de-dollarization persist, leading many analysts to target significantly higher prices later in the year.

The World Gold Council noted last week that central banks bought 244 tonnes of gold on a net basis in Q1, a rise of 3% y/y. Bar and coin demand surged 42% y/y to 474 tonnes, the second-highest quarter on record. Global ETF buying increased by 62 tonnes, tempered by sizable outflows from U.S. funds in March. Demand for gold used in technology grew by 1% to 82 tonnes, "fuelled largely by the continued growth in AI infrastructure."

Investment demand for gold now significantly exceeds fabrication demand. Weaker jewellery consumption, combined with surging investor interest, has markedly shifted the composition of global gold demand in recent years, according to the WGC, with investors playing a much larger role relative to traditional fabrication uses.

Given the record-high gold prices, jewellery demand faced pressure with volumes declining 23% year-over-year. However, total consumer spending on gold jewellery rose sharply by 31%, indicating strong positive sentiment and a willingness among buyers to purchase higher-value pieces even at elevated prices.

Overall, gold demand (including OTC) rose 2% to 1,231 tonnes in Q1. "This modest growth in volumes combined with gold’s exceptional price rise, generated a 74% jump in the value of quarterly demand to a record US$193bn, said the WGC.

Gold must regain the 100-day MA at $4,770.43 to set a more favorable tone within the range. Intervening barriers are marked by today's overseas high at $4,628.92, Friday's high at $4,659.44, and the declining 20-day MA at $4,709.44


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$1.996 (-2.65%)
5-Day Change: -$2.385 (-3.16%)
YTD Range: $61.036 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $31.701 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +101.97

Silver has retreated, weighed by heightened inflation concerns, dimming hopes for a Fed rate cut later in the year, a firmer dollar, and multi-week lows in gold. Gains late last week were limited by the 20-day moving average, leaving the white metal well contained within its recent range.



Silver notched its second consecutive lower weekly close on Friday, and April was the second straight lower monthly close. Given that silver remains below the 20-, 50-, and 100-day MAs and the positioning of those indicators relative to each other, the market remains vulnerable.

A retest of last week's low at $70.893, and a downside extension to the $70 zone must be considered. However, revived hopes for the ceasefire and peace process between the U.S. and Iran could change that quickly. Middle East headlines will continue to drive the market.

A short-term close above the 20-day MA would shift focus to last week's high at $76.950. A breach of this level would bode well for a challenge of the 100-day MA at $80.172.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.