Blog posts tagged with 'copper'

While the #gold market forged a quasi-upside breakout yesterday the market has fallen back into a building consolidation zone largely situated between $2352 and $2285.

In general, we suspect gold and #silver will continue to benefit from geopolitical flight to quality buying (especially with the Israelis launching their attack on the southern city of Rafah) and somewhat less from the dovish pivot in sentiment toward US interest rates following last week's data.

However, the bull camp should be very discouraged with the lack of gains in gold and silver this morning given the Israeli offensive...[MORE]

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With relative calm in the Middle East apparently poised to end soon with an Israeli attack on the southern Gaza city of Rafah, it is not surprising to see gold and silver leap higher to start the new week.

While overnight news coverage of the markets suggests gold is rising off US rate cut hopes for later this year, we suspect rate cut hopes are a minimal portion of the fuel for this morning's gains.

Classic demand signals were present overnight with the Perth mint April gold sales doubled from March sales while silver sales declined to their lowest level since December...[MORE]

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With a downside breakout in the dollar index overnight to the lowest level since April 12th, a portion of the bear camp should be discouraged.

However, gold has clearly established a pattern of lower highs and remains within the lower quarter of the range of the last 30 days in a fashion that favors the bear camp.

Furthermore, gold ETF holdings yesterday declined by a VERY significant 193,328 ounces for a 0.2% daily decline, with silver ETF holdings declining by 4.3 million ounces in the last two days...[MORE]

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With the gold and silver markets spiking higher following the Fed policy decision and press conference, the bulls showed some control as the trade was able to discount disappointment over another delay in cutting rates and instead embraced relief that the Fed was not in a mode to consider rate hikes!

However, given a significant jump in ISM Manufacturing prices-paid earlier this week that should be seen as a sign that inflation lives on in various sectors of the economy.

Unfortunately for the bull camp, we think that "dovish spin" will have a short shelf life, especially if today's US unit labor costs report matches expectations of a gain of 3.2% compared to last month's gain of 0.4%...[MORE]

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The deck is stacked against the bull camps in gold and silver today, with an upside breakout in the dollar, signs of higher treasury yields, fear of a hawkish Federal Reserve statement, and a lack of support from Chinese and European buyers overnight due to the May Day holiday.

However, the gold market should derive some underpin from World Gold Council projections of continued brisk global central bank purchases, and signs of positive gold demand from India and China.

It should also be noted that Indian gold demand increased by 8% during the January through March timeframe with gold jewelry demand in India increasing by 4% and amounting to a significant percentage of total world gold demand...[MORE]

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While the net spec and fund long in gold (adjusted for the $30 rally into Friday's high) suggest the market is heavily overbought, we suspect technical signals will take a backseat to classic flight to quality headline news flow.

However, with the post-COT report rally, the net spec and fund long in gold is likely the longest in two years, and therefore any sign of a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas could result in a massive correction.

Gold positioning in the Commitments of Traders for the week ending April 23rd showed Managed Money traders net bought 3,296 contracts and are now net long 176,157 contracts...[MORE]

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Once again noted strength in gold and silver prices appears to be taking place in a vacuum, with little change in US interest rates, the dollar, and energy prices overnight.

However, the bull camp is likely benefiting from a surprise jump in Chinese first-quarter gold consumption which increased by 5.9% from year-ago levels.

Apparently, mainland China's March gold imports through Hong Kong increased by 40% from February giving credence to news earlier this month that Chinese investors were seeking to hold gold to avoid weakness in the domestic currency...[MORE]

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With the gold market over the last 72 hours settling within a range bound by $2350 and $2300, it is possible that some form of value has been found ahead of what is likely to be a key fork in the road for prices.

Fortunately for the bull camp, the dollar is showing signs of tracking lower this morning as the aggressive liquidation this week has clearly rocked the bull camp back on its heels.

While the February to April rallies in gold and silver were not fueled by definitive inflows to ETF holdings, both gold and silver holdings continue to decline in a sign that small investors have not been enticed by the second half of April setback...[MORE]

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In retrospect, the gold trade was unsure of the primary source of the massive April upside extension of the historic gold rally which began early last October.

While the trade remains vulnerable to additional stop-loss selling today from very large net spec and fund positioning, further extraction of war premium is also expected with the gold futures and options positioning (adjusted into the recent highs) likely at three year highs!

However, Bloomberg overnight carried a story suggesting a large portion of the gold rally was sparked by aggressive buying at the Shanghai futures exchange...[MORE]

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