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Blog posts tagged with 'copper'

Zaner Daily Precious Metals Commentary

In retrospect, the action in gold and silver this week has been nothing short of stellar given periodic adversity from strength in the dollar.

Furthermore, gold managed to shrug off headwinds from signs of slowing in the US and European economies especially with gold at times over the last several weeks seemingly benefiting from "hope" of a recovery in physical/industrial gold demand following a global macroeconomic euphoria wave.

Apparently, the gold trade interpreted yesterday's US PCE report result as a sign inflation was slowing which apparently keeps US rate cut hopes alive...[MORE]

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Zaner Daily Precious Metals Commentary

Not surprisingly, the markets expected to be impacted by today's critical US inflation reading (PCE) and they have forged tight trading ranges again overnight as many traders avoid implementing fresh positions in front of what could be a critical trend-deciding report in the form of US PCE later today.

Fortunately for the bull camp, open interest in gold has come down significantly since the middle of last month, potentially suggesting the market found solid value earlier this month around $2,000.

Unfortunately for the bull camp, a US PCE reading above +0.3% will likely relaunch the dollar sharply higher and set the stage for a return to $2,000 in April gold in the coming sessions...[MORE]

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Zaner Daily Precious Metals Commentary

With an upside breakout in the US dollar overnight surprisingly forged in the wake of a series of soft US data points over the last 5 sessions, the markets are expecting today's US GDP report to partially right the ship of the US economy.

However, it is also possible the dollar is feeding higher off persistent hawkish views from Federal Reserve members which could be expected to reach a fever pitch just before midsession today with the Fed's Bostic, Collins, and Williams speaking just ahead of midsession.

Expectations for US GDP call for no revision in a previous growth rate of 3.3%. While not a definitive bullish impact, a Russian gold mining group indicated last year's gold production declined by 6.8% on a base output of 412,500 Troy ounces...[MORE]

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Zaner Daily Precious Metals Commentary

With a three-day low in the dollar extending a lower high and lower low pattern and US treasuries posting early gains, gold and silver bulls have an edge from outside market action.

The dollar was clearly undermined by disappointing US new home sales readings for January yesterday, and we suspect the trade saw some anticipatory selling ahead of what is expected to be a very soft US durable goods report today (expectations -4.5%).

While we think softer economic activity will undermine gold and silver prices because of the recent focus on the potential for improved physical demand, it is possible a very disappointing US durable goods report will knock the dollar sharply lower and in turn help gold and silver find firm support...[MORE]

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Zaner Daily Precious Metals Commentary

The action in gold this morning should be concerning to the bull camp as the dollar remains vulnerable on its charts with five straight days of lower highs.

While not a major supportive development, treasury prices have added to last week's late rebound early today.

With a lack of global economic data overnight, generally lower equities, and a veritable avalanche of US scheduled data ahead this week some gold longs might be taking profits and moving to the sidelines temporarily...[MORE]

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Zaner Daily Precious Metals Commentary

Fortunately for the bull camp in gold, today's US economic reports slate is empty which could tamp down revived interest in the dollar following yesterday's flow of very favorable US housing and jobs data.

In retrospect, the higher high in April gold early Thursday was heavily dependent on the sharp washout in the dollar.

Unfortunately for the bull camp, the dollar staged a significant recovery and US treasury yields reached higher highs off further erosion of hope for a US rate cut...[MORE]

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Zaner Daily Precious Metals Commentary

While the press continues to tout flight to quality buying interest in gold from events in the Middle East, we are highly suspicious of that argument and think the ebb and flow of the dollar index trade is the primary focus of the gold trade.

Therefore, with the downside breakout/plunge in the dollar to the lowest level since February 2nd overnight, US treasury yields potentially capping out just below three-month highs, and broad-based risk-on sentiment from good Nvidia earnings the bull camp has several credible themes.

While it is possible that gold is deriving some investment support from surging Harmony gold mining shares, the company also predicted their production would increase by 14% and they recorded higher grades of ore than year-ago levels which are limiting gold futures prices...[MORE]

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Zaner Daily Precious Metals Commentary

With a higher high for the move overnight April gold has extended a slight bullish edge into another trading session.

Surprisingly April gold managed the higher high despite a measure of strength in the dollar.

However, a very minor and indirect negative impact on gold overnight came from a very hot New Zealand producer price index reading which for some keeps fear of global inflation in place.

In today's early action traders will be confronted with a US Fed speech, a 20-year US treasury bond auction, and perhaps most importantly the release of the FOMC meeting minutes from the Fed's most recent meeting...[MORE]

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Copper, gold to get 'largest immediate' boost from Fed easing, Goldman says
Feb 21 (Reuters) - Copper and gold are expected to see the largest immediate price boost in the commodities sector from potential U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, analysts at Goldman Sachs said.
 
"The immediate price boost from a Fed driven 100 basis point decline in U.S. 2-year rates is the largest for metals, especially copper (6%), and then gold (3%), followed by oil (3%)," Goldman Sachs said in a note dated Feb. 20...[LINK]
Zaner Daily Precious Metals Commentary
Fortunately for the bull camp in gold and silver, the dollar has remained near five-day lows as the US economic outlook has deteriorated which has kept some measure of rate-cut hopes alive for the first half of 2024.
 
Indirectly the gold market should see minimal support from the very aggressive cut in the Chinese mortgage reference rate overnight as that tamps down fear of a Chinese collapse and global deflation.
 
Unfortunately for the bull camp, gold ETF holdings continue to decline with an outflow last week of 550,951 ounces bringing the year-to-date outflow to 3.1% in less than two months...[MORE]
 
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