Blog posts tagged with 'gold'

Gold and silver higher for a second straight session, but remain vulnerable in this short holiday week

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: The Iran situation remains the dominant macro driver and continues to produce volatile price action across all asset classes. The war, now in its 30th day, is highlighted by continued airstrikes and missile exchanges across the region.

Israel and the U.S. have targeted Iranian missile production facilities, nuclear sites (including the Arak heavy-water plant), and defense infrastructure. Iran continues to hit back, launching multiple waves of ballistic missiles at Israel – hitting areas near Beersheba and Tel Aviv – and striking a U.S. radar aircraft at a base in Saudi Arabia.

The conflict has widened as Iran-backed Houthis fired their first missiles at Israel from Yemen. Additionally, Israeli PM  Netanyahu announced Sunday that the IDF will widen its invasion of southern Lebanon to push Iranian proxy Hezbollah forces northward, expanding the existing security strip. Meanwhile, the U.S. has deployed thousands more troops to the region, and President Trump has spoken about potentially seizing Iran’s Kharg Island oil terminal, heightening speculation of possible ground operations.

President Trump continues to claim talks with Iran are progressing “extremely well” and notes some oil tankers are moving through the Strait of Hormuz. However, Iran has rejected key U.S. demands and insists on its own conditions (including sovereignty over the strait). Both sides appear to be balancing military pressure with back-channel outreach to prevent further escalation.

Heading into month-end and quarter-end, the stagflation narrative is entrenching itself as the other key macro factor. The war-related oil shock has pushed energy prices significantly higher, feeding into broader consumer prices while weighing on spending, business activity, and GDP growth.

The Fed faces a classic stagflation conundrum with no painless option. Raising rates to combat inflation could further slow the economy and increase unemployment, whereas holding rates steady or cutting them to support growth could allow inflation to become more entrenched.

The Fed is widely expected to hold steady at the next FOMC meeting on 29-Apr. The only other move in play based on Fed funds futures is a 25 bps hike, although the chances are scant at 2.6%.

While the outlook for rate hikes has ebbed somewhat from last week, the likelihood that the Fed is at least on hold for the foreseeable future, along with the war-related haven bid, continues to underpin the greenback. The dollar index extended to fresh 10-month highs above 100.48 (16-Mar high), suggesting scope for additional gains to 101.00 and 101.55.

March employment data comes out on Friday, although most major markets will be closed in observance of Good Friday. Consensus is for +55k nonfarm payrolls. After February's terrible -92k print, a downside miss on Friday would reinforce the stagflation theme, especially if hourly earnings beat on the upside.

Negotiations to end the partial government shutdown remain stalled after House Speaker Mike Johnson rejected a Senate-passed deal to fund most of DHS (including TSA) while excluding certain immigration functions. House Republicans are pushing full funding bills that Democrats adamantly oppose. Lawmakers are in recess for Easter, with no immediate resolution in sight.

Travelers have faced significant airport delays as TSA staff went unpaid, leading to hundreds quitting. However, the AP reported this morning that most TSA workers got paid today on at least two missed paychecks courtesy of a Trump executive order. Perhaps there is some relief for travelers in sight.

GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$38.80 (+0.86%)
5-Day Change: +$114.87 (+2.61%)
YTD Range: $4,100.32 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $2,961.83 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +42.33

Gold is trading modestly higher for a second straight session, though gains remain limited amid persistent U.S. dollar strength and lingering investor uncertainty following last Monday’s volatility. With a shortened holiday week ahead and key U.S. jobs data due on Friday, caution and risk management remain the dominant themes.



A breach of last week's high at $4,601.07 (25-Mar) would be somewhat encouraging to the bull camp, but the rising 100-day moving average at $4,637.29 (on a close basis) and the 38.2% retracement level at $4,671.30 are the more important levels to watch this week. Penetration of the latter would shift focus to the convergence of the falling 20-day MA and the 50% retracement level at $4843.50 /$4,847.67.

The recovery from last Monday's low at $4,100.32, at least initially, has the look and feel of an ascending wedge, suggesting further tests of the downside can not be ruled out. Failure to sustain gains above $4,500 would put today's low at $4,420.80 in jeopardy. Additional tiers of support at $4,377.08 (27-Mar low), $4,352.04/$4,350.69 (26-Mar low and Fibonacci), $4,308.83 (24-Mar low), and $4,291.61 (Fibonacci) all protect the range low.

While gold bulls have certainly been tested this year, many analysts continue to view this year's drop as a correction and liquidity-driven event rather than a fundamental breakdown in gold’s long-term bull case. Central bank and investor demand is expected to remain robust, driven by ongoing dedollarization, concerns over record global debt, U.S. political uncertainty ahead of midterm elections, and persistently high geopolitical risks. All of these factors are separate from the Iran headlines and unlikely to reverse regardless of how the war is ultimately resolved.

JP Morgan correctly predicted late in 2025 that the "rally in gold has not, and will not, be linear," but I doubt they would have imagined at the time that gold was in for a nearly $1,500 retreat. As of February of this year, JPM was still quite bullish, forecasting gold to $6,300 by year-end 2026.

I'm more inclined to take the remainder of the year a step at a time. If gold can regain the $5,000 level, which I believe is likely. New all-time highs above $5,595.02 would be very much in play in the latter half of the year. New record highs would reconfirm the $6,000 objective, and beyond that, $6,300.

SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.989 (+1.42%)
5-Day Change: +$1.509 (+2.18%)
YTD Range: $61.036 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +116.14

Silver is relatively tame within a $4 range to start the week, in sharp contrast to last Monday's riotous session. I think the trade is happy for a little relief and a holiday-shortened week to reacclimate to the new range.



Silver has lost nearly half its value since hitting an all-time high of $121.53 in January, in one of the more violent collapses in the precious metal's modern history; a selloff driven by liquidity-driven unwinds, stagflation fears hammering industrial demand expectations, and forced selling as leveraged longs met margin calls across the board. It's been a rout, and I'm not convinced it's over.

And yet, a case can still be made that the underlying fundamentals remain supportive. The market is on track to notch its sixth straight annual supply deficit. The Silver Institute projects the shortfall to be 67 Moz. Industrial demand is expected to remain robust through 2026, driven in part by strong growth in the solar panel sector, with global photovoltaic capacity expected to reach a record high 2,849 gigawatts by year-end.

Meanwhile, global mine production is forecast to rise just 1% to 820 million ounces in 2026. Silver recycling is growing faster, up about 7%, but anecdotal evidence suggests this source of supply is now largely maxed out. Record-high prices earlier this year flooded the recycling channel, and while some refiners are expanding capacity, many are reluctant to commit significant capital expenditures for fear of ending up with excess capacity once the market returns to more normal conditions.

Bottom line: Demand will continue to outstrip supply.

Last week's high at $74.554 is protected by the $72.192. A short-term close back above the 100-day moving average at $75.162 would give the bull camp some hope.

On the downside, supports at $67.742 (today's low), $67.489 (27-Mar low), $66.763 (26-Mar low), $66.030 (24-Mar low) protect the spike low from a week ago at $61.036.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver plunged to new lows for the year as war escalation sparked broad deleveraging

Outside Market Developments: Over the weekend, Iran launched two long-range ballistic missiles targeting the U.S.-U.K. joint base on Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, over 2,500 miles away. One missile failed mid-flight, and the other was shot down by a U.S. warship, but the attempt displayed a heretofore unknown Iranian capability.

Israeli officials described the missiles as a two-stage system with intercontinental potential that could be used to threaten Europe and a wider array of distant U.S. assets. While the eastern seaboard of the U.S. is far beyond this demonstrated range, the intelligence failure is understandably concerning.

On Saturday evening, President Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face consequences. "The United States of America will hit and obliterate [Iran's] various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST," warned Trump.

In response, Iran threatened to completely close the Strait – or even mine the entire Persian Gulf – if the U.S. attacks its power plants or energy infrastructure. The latest round of saber-rattling initially reinforced mounting concerns about a protracted conflict, with elevated energy prices creating broad inflation and growth risks.

However, on Monday, Trump extended the deadline for five days, citing "very good and productive conversations." Iran's Foreign Ministry called those claims "falsehood and psychological warfare." While the walking back of the imminent threats calmed markets, the trade remains on edge and tilted toward risk-off.

That risk aversion is underpinning the dollar, as the trade seeks maximum liquidity. The dollar index remains within striking distance of the 10-month high set a week ago.



The dollar is drawing additional support from fading expectations of Fed easing, which has helped push Treasury yields higher. Mounting inflation risks from volatile – and persistently elevated – oil prices amid the Iran conflict have led markets to price in the Fed remaining on hold well into 2027. Talk that the Fed's next move could be a hike has intensified over the past week.

Markets this week will focus on Tuesday's flash S&P Global PMIs (manufacturing, services, and composite for March) for early signals on private-sector activity and resilience; Tuesday's final Q4 productivity and unit labor costs revisions, which could influence wage-inflation views; Wednesday's February import/export price indexes and Q4 current account balance, highlighting trade dynamics and inflation pass-through from higher energy costs.

Traders will scrutinize these releases for any indications of economic softening or persistent inflationary pressures that could influence Fed rate path expectations. However, headline developments from the Middle East are likely to continue dominating overall market sentiment.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$225.85 (-5.02%)
5-Day Change: -$583.45 (-11.65%)
YTD Range: $4,100.32 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $2,961.83 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +37.15

Gold plunged to new lows for the year in overseas trading after a significant escalation of the Iran war over the weekend. While most of those losses were subsequently retraced, and the yellow metal is once again higher YTD, considerable technical damage has been done.



Deleveraging certainly contributed to the strong selling pressures. Faced with margin calls from equity/bond losses, gold often gets sold off rapidly, even if the underlying fundamentals remain broadly supportive. The high to low move so far this year is now nearly $1,500 (-26.7%).

The breach of the previous corrective low at $4,406.69 cleared the way for a challenge of the $4,200 zone. However, the market extended another $100 beyond that to put the 200-day moving average at  $4,101.83 to the test.

The longs have been rocked once again, reviving the trepidations from earlier in the year. Look for short-term conditions to remain volatile as the trade adjusts to the new range.

Gold hasn't traded below the 200-day since October 2023. The 200-day containing the downside and the subsequent $400+ rebound to trade back above $4,500 give the long-term bulls something to hang their hat on. It's also worth noting that gold is quite oversold. October 2023 is also the last time the 14-day RSI has been this low.

A breach of today's highs at $4,511.50/$4,534.96 would shift focus to the rising 100-day MA at $4,613.75. A short-term close about the latter would provide further encouragement to the bull camp. The midpoint of the new range is currently well protected at $4,847.67.

A failure to stay back above $4,400 would put intraday support at $4,352.57 back in play. Below that, focus would return to the $4,305.91/$4,300.00 area. 


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$3.936 (-5.79%)
5-Day Change: -$12.514 (-15.50%)
YTD Range: $61.036 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +88.62

Silver extended to the downside in overseas trading on Monday, establishing a new low for the year at $61.036 amid broad deleveraging and a resilient dollar. However, the white metal was able to regain its footing and appears poised to close higher on the day.



Similar to gold, I think the latest plunge and recovery have reignited fears of extreme volatility on both sides of the market. Traders will be quick to cash in on profits, and equally quick to rein in losses, leading to choppy conditions.

A breach of the early-U.S. high at $70.757 would bode well for a test of the 100-day MA at $74.092. An eventual close above the latter would shift focus to the halfway back point of the most recent leg-down at $78.715. The midpoint of the broader range is at $91.333, and out of play for the time being.

Intraday support at $67.536/38 stands in front of last week's low at $65.637, which is a diminished level ahead of today's low at $61.036. Below that, $60 protects the rising 200-day MA at $57.827.

These are all wide levels to be sure. Warranted by the realities of this market.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver set for third straight lower weekly closes

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: The U.S.-Israel joint military campaign against Iran is on the verge of entering its fourth week. U.S. and Israeli forces expanded strikes deep into Iranian territory, targeting naval assets, defense industries, ballistic missile production, internal security forces, and key energy infrastructure, including the South Pars gas field.

Iran has retaliated with repeated ballistic missile barrages on Israel and attacks on Gulf energy facilities in neighboring countries. Kuwait's Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery, capable of processing around 730,000 barrels of oil per day, was hit by a multi-wave drone attack.

With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, and both sides increasing attacks on energy infrastructure targets, oil prices remain well above $100. U.S. strikes on Iran's Kharg Island have avoided the key oil export terminal thus far, but one would imagine that it becomes an increasingly tempting target as the war drags on. However, the more infrastructure is destroyed, the longer oil prices will remain elevated, even after the war ends.

American aircraft also reportedly struck Iranian hardened missile sites along the coastline near the Strait of Hormuz using 5,000-pound deep-penetrator munitions. Meanwhile, President Trump has had some success in rallying naval support from NATO members, European nations, Japan, and others to help reopen and secure the Strait of Hormuz.

The Pentagon announced today the accelerated deployment of the USS Boxer amphibious assault ship, along with two other amphibious warships and approximately 2,500 Marines from the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit. While President Trump reiterated there would be "no boots on the ground" in Iran, bolstering amphibious capabilities in the region provides the options for limited coastal operations to deter Iranian interference with global energy supplies without committing to a full-scale ground invasion.

Seven major central banks announced policy this week. Most held steady, amid data-dependent uncertainty. However, hawkish tilts associated with energy-driven inflation risks were evident.

The RBA was the exception, raising its cash rate by 25 bps to 4.10% (second consecutive hike). "While inflation has fallen substantially since its peak in 2022, it picked up materially in the second half of 2025. Information since the February meeting suggests that some of the increase in inflation reflects greater capacity pressures. In addition, the conflict in the Middle East has resulted in sharply higher fuel prices, which, if sustained, will add to inflation," according to the policy statement.

The prospects for Fed rate cuts this year have steadily eroded as inflation remains stubbornly high. This week's hotter-than-expected February PPI release (+0.7% MoM and 3.4% YoY headline) heightened concerns further, as the data –largely compiled before the late-February escalation of the U.S.-Israel war with Iran – already captured elevated prices for wholesale goods and services without the full impact of surging energy prices that have since driven oil sharply higher.

Fed funds futures are currently not pricing in any rate cuts in 2026. In fact, there doesn't seem to be much of a chance of easing through H1'27. Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that the possibility of the next move being an increase "did come up at the meeting, as it did at the last meeting," though he stressed it's not the base case for the "vast majority" of officials.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$8.02 (-0.17%)
5-Day Change: -$456.40 (-9.09%)
YTD Range: $4,310.83 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $2,961.83 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +45.99

Gold has traded lower every day this week, down more than 9% from last Friday's close. The yellow metal is poised for its third consecutive lower weekly close, weighed by generally hawkish tilts by a number of major central banks, amid rising concerns about energy prices and inflation.



While safe-haven interest and a modestly weaker dollar provide some underpinning, this week's losses put gold decisively back in the lower half of the $5,595.02/$4,406.69 range that formed earlier in the year. The 100-day moving average was meaningfully penetrated on Thursday, and it looks like today we'll see our first close below the 100-day since late 2024.

Note that in 2024, the 100-day caught up with the market during a consolidative period, and it did not signal an end to the long-term uptrend at all. The foray below the 100-day MA  back then was brief, and the uptrend ultimately resumed.

That's what is happening now, although the range is far broader this time around. Arguably, the range low at $4,406.69 will be vulnerable to a test next week. However, evidence that efforts to secure the Strait of Hormuz will be successful could relieve some of the upward pressure on oil, stemming concerns about higher-for-longer rates and providing a headwind for the dollar.

If $4,406.69 does give way, focus would shift initially to the 31-Dec'25 low at $4,275.24. Below the latter, $4,200 would be in play.

A rebound above $4,800 is needed to truly ease pressure on the downside and revive confidence that the corrective low is in place. Intervening resistances are noted at $4,612.81 and Friday's high at $4735.31.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$1.149 (-1.58%)
5-Day Change: -$11.162 (-13.85%)
YTD Range: $64.140 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +99.34

Silver traded below $70 on Friday for a second straight session, weighed by concerns about central bank hawkishness. While the dollar index is lower on the week, it remains up more than 2% in March, near the 100 level. Like gold, the white metal is on track for a third straight weekly loss. 



The magnitude and momentum of this week's losses raise serious doubts that the $64.140 range low will hold. The bull camp's confidence remains rattled from the crazy volatility earlier in the year, and they know that follow-through below $64.140 will be measured in dollars.

Emboldened shorts, on the other hand, are keen to run the stops below the range low. If $64.140 gives way, potential would be to the $60 zone.

A rebound above $70 would take some of the pressure off the downside, but the midpoint of the range (if it holds) at $80.267 is the more important level when it comes to returning some measure of confidence to the underlying uptrend. Intervening resistances are noted at 74.535 (20-Mar high) and 76.690 (19-Mar high).


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold consolidates, awaiting fresh inputs

Outside Market Developments: The ongoing war in the Middle East, now in its 12th day, continues to drive uncertainty and risk aversion. The U.S. reportedly destroyed 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, in an effort to keep the critical oil chokepoint open. Meanwhile, Iran continued to launch missile and drone strikes on Israel, Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, and multiple commercial ships in or near the Strait.

While oil prices have moderated from Monday's spike high near $120, Brent crude is still trading more than $20 higher than a year ago, despite the IEA announcement of an emergency reserve release of 400 million barrels. This marked the largest coordinated stock release in the IEA's history, unanimously agreed upon by its 32 members to address unprecedented supply challenges caused by the ongoing U.S.-Iran war.

Securing and fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz is a primary objective of the U.S. military. "If Iran does anything that stops the flow of Oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far," President Trump posted on TruthSocial earlier in the week.

One might think that the huge reserve release would quell immediate supply concerns, but some argue that it's suggestive of preparations for a prolonged war. However, President Trump said today that the war will end "soon" because there is "practically nothing left to target."

Securing and fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz is a primary objective of the U.S. military. "If Iran does anything that stops the flow of Oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far," President Trump posted on TruthSocial earlier in the week.

Today's consumer inflation report was largely benign. Headline CPI rose 0.3% in February, in line with expectations, versus +0.2% in January. The annualized rate was steady at 2.4%. Core CPI was +0.2%, in line with expectations, versus +0.3% in January; +2.5% y/y, unchanged from January.

Focus now shifts to Friday's PCE report for January, which includes the Fed's favored measure of inflation. Market expectations for this pre-war period are generally neutral, even as price risks have soared more recently.

The dollar is trading higher today amid those inflation concerns and expectations that the Fed will remain on pause into Q4. The next 25 bps rate hike isn't fully priced until December.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$6.70 (-0.13%)
5-Day Change: +$34.74 (+0.68%)
YTD Range: $4,310.83 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $2,910.24 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +76.97

Gold is trading modestly lower with price action confined to Tuesday's range. The safe-haven bid associated with the war and broad trade and geopolitical uncertainty is being offset by inflation concerns that have dimmed prospects for Fed easing this year and lifted the dollar.



pent the majority of the week in the lower half of the range that was established on Monday and Tuesday. The inability to sustain those initial tests above $5,400 sets up the yellow metal's first lower weekly close in five weeks.

With the $5,000 support zone considered intact and the 20-day moving average continuing to attract buying interest, the technical bias remains bullish. As long as the war is ongoing, the downside is seen as limited.

Evidence that Iran's ability to project power and harass shipping in the Straits has been eliminated (or significantly degraded) would signal that U.S. military action in the Middle East could begin winding down. This would weigh on gold initially, potentially leading to a retest of the $5,000 level.

The midpoint of the range-within-the-range comes in at $4,912.76. This level protects the $4,847.74 low from 17-Feb, which corresponds closely with the 50-day MA. Below that, the $4,800/$4,793.33 would be in play.

However, signs that the war is wrapping up would also push oil prices lower, diminishing inflation risks. Fed easing expectations would rebound, and the dollar would retreat, ultimately providing renewed lift for gold.

A breach of last week's high at $5,418.84 and a minor chart point at $5,450.83 (30-Jan high) would clear the way for a retest of the record high at $5,595.02. Ultimately, the dominant trend is still seen as bullish, and the magnitude of the retracement already seen strongly suggests the corrective low is in at $4,406.69.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$1.782 (-2.02%)
5-Day Change: +$1.831 (+2.19%)
YTD Range: $64.14 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +165.81

Silver was unable to sustain tests in the Asian session above $90, as volatility persists. The white metal remains confined to last week's range, underpinned by haven interest, but with pared rate cut bets and a firmer dollar providing headwinds.



The market is still reeling from the extreme volatility seen earlier in the year, where the sharp run-up to record levels above $120 significantly disrupted the global supply chain. The subsequent near halving of the price over the course of just six sessions has everyone a little gun-shy.
 
Nonetheless, the fundamental backdrop remains bullish. The Silver Institute projects the market to post its sixth consecutive annual supply deficit of around 67 Moz this year, despite a stronger supply picture. An aproximately 1% rise in mine production to 820 Moz will help boost global supply by 1.5% to a decade-high of 1.05 Boz.

As the dust continues to settle, I expect the bulls to be increasingly emboldened as downside risk points within the broad range become more apparent. I continue to watch the rising 20-day MA on a close basis. The significance of the $80 zone was reinforced by Monday's low at $79.767, providing good protection in front of last week's low at $78.092.

A sustained move above $90 is needed to return focus last week's high at $96.393. The $90.980/$91.322 area now marks good intervening resistance.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver recover from overseas tests of the downside

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: The escalating Middle East conflict continues to weigh on risk appetite as the week begins. The U.S. continues to strike Iranian oil facilities, military sites, and cities like Tehran and Qom. In response, Iran has intensified retaliatory missile and drone barrages targeting Israel, Gulf states, and U.S. assets across the region.

Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was formally appointed as Iran's new Supreme Leader on Sunday. The new leader is widely regarded as an anti-Western hardliner who is even more ideologically rigid and confrontational than his father. He likely already has a target on his back.

Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz through threats and attacks on shipping, spiking global oil prices above $100–$120 per barrel and broadening the conflict into a multi-front regional energy and military crisis. Beyond the mounting geopolitical risks, soaring energy prices have stoked broader inflation concerns.

Mounting price risks have weighed on rate cut expectations, pushing the likelihood of further easing deeper into H2. Currently, a 25 bps cut isn't fully priced until October.

Prospects for U.S. yields to remain higher for longer and risk-off rotations out of stocks have buoyed the dollar. While the dollar index eked out a new 14-week high in Asian trading, selling interest emerged subsequently, leaving the 100 level protected. Note the potential double top.



Recent U.S. economic data show a slowdown in labor market momentum, with nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly declining by 92k in February, well below expectations of +59k, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. Persistently soft retail sales and the limited government shutdown pose growth risks and another level of uncertainty.

Focus this week will be on U.S. inflation data. Annualized CPI and core CPI inflation are expected to hold steady at 2.4% and 2.5% respective. However, PCE inflation readings are projected to accelerate modestly.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$85.54 (-1.65%)
5-Day Change: -$226.10 (-4.25%)
YTD Range: $4,310.83 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $2,882.53 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +73.19

Gold began the week on the offer, slipping to test the $5,000 zone in overseas trading, as dollar, inflation, and deleveraging dynamics eclipse ongoing haven interest. Last week, the yellow metal posted its first lower weekly close since the week ended 30-Jan.



Besides the war in the Middle East, there are plenty of other uncertainties that suggest the downside in gold is probably limited. The approach of $5,000 attracted some buying interest, with the 20-day MA continuing to generally hold on a close basis.

North American investors were big sellers of ETFs last week, accounting for 33.8 tonnes of outflows. However, investors in other regions took advantage of last week's initial price drop, adding to holdings. Asian investors bought 10.3 tonnes. Nonetheless, the -20.3 tonne net was the largest weekly outflow since May.

  

Today's overseas low at $5,016.24 reinforces the $5,000.00/$4,997.76 support level. Penetration of the latter would return focus to the rising 50-day MA at $4,881.85 and the more important 17-Feb low at $4,847.74.

If gold can hold above $5,000, further tests above $5,200 become likely. Penetration of $5,206.10 (4-Mar high) would bode well for additional retracement to $5,249.54 (24-Feb high), with potential back to last week's high at $5,418.84.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$1.321 (-1.56%)
5-Day Change: -$5.685 (-6.36%)
YTD Range: $64.140 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +158.49

Silver has recovered from the intraday drop below $80 to trade higher on the day, but inflation concerns, less dovish Fed expectations, and mounting worries about the overvaluation of tech/AI shares are seen as headwinds. The white metal remains quite volatile in the lower half of the broad $121.63/$64.140 range.



AI is extraordinarily energy-intensive, so the surge in energy costs assuredly has the finance teams doing some recalculating. Additionally, the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates could slow planned capex spending, impacting industrial demand for silver, copper, and a host of other commodities.

Today's intraday low at $79.767 lends significance to the $80 zone, providing a good interevening barrier ahead of last week's low at $78.092. Below the latter, the 61.8% retracement level of the rebound off the $64.140 low comes in at $74.461.

Heightened concerns about recession, and the AI theme will weigh more heavily on silver, so I do expect the white metal to underperform. Further tests above 70 in the gold/silver ratio seem likely.  However, the longer-term outlook for silver remains positive due to the persistent supply deficit, now in its sixth straight year.

If silver can mount a convincing move back above $90, a more favorable tone within the range would be evident. That would shift focus to the 3-Mar high at $91.322 and last week's high at $96.393. Obviously, we're still talking very wide ranges, so volatility will remain high. Keep an eye on the closes this week in relation to the 20- and 50-day moving averages for additional technical clues.  


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.