Blog posts tagged with 'gold'

Gold edges lower as warmer inflation weighs on rate cut expectations, boosts dollar

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Consumer inflation picked up in June, although it was largely in line with expectations. Headline CPI accelerated to 2.7% from 2.4% in May, while core CPI edged up to 2.9% from 2.8%.

U.S. yields are mostly higher as expectations for Fed easing later in the year ebb. This has pushed the dollar index to three-week highs.

Treasury Secretary Bessent noted on X that at least core inflation has come in at or below expectations since the Trump term began.

Speaking on Bloomberg TV earlier today, Bessent acknowledged that the process has begun to find a replacement for Jerome Powell. While Powell's term as Fed Chair doesn't end until May 2026, his position on the Board of Governors extends until January 2028.

Bessent reaffirmed that the White House is “not looking to fire” Powell, despite President Trump's regular denigration. However, Trump would like to see Powell resign once his term as chair expires.

“There’s been a lot of talk of a shadow Fed chair causing confusion in advance of his or her nomination, and I can tell you, I think it would be very confusing for the market for a former Fed chair to stay on," Bessent said.

Market attention remains fixed on tariff developments after this week's escalations, but risk appetite remains elevated. That suggests the trade remains optimistic that deals will be struck, and/or worries about tariff-driven inflation are waning.

Fiscal worries associated with the OBBB also seem to be waning. Custom duty collections hit a record $27.2 bln in June, surpassing the previous records from May ($22.3 bln) and April ($16.5 bln). The total for the fiscal year reached a record high $113 bln, an increase of 86% versus the same period last fiscal year. 

The tariff revenue helped produce a surprise $27 bln budget surplus for the month. It was the first monthly budget surplus since September that wasn't associated with an April tax revenue influx.

The September 2024 surplus may have been the result of a shift in the timing of outlays that artificially boosted the fiscal position in September. The next monthly surplus (not an April) was in January 2022.

CPI rose 0.3% in June, in line with expectations, versus +0.1% in May; 2.7% y/y, up from 2.4% in May. Core +0.2%, below expectations of +0.3%, versus +0.1% in May; 2.9% y/y, versus 2.8% in May. 

Empire State Index rebounded 22 points to a five-month high of 5.5 in July, above expectations of -8.5, versus -16.0 in June. "The prices paid index rose nine points to 56.0, pointing to a pickup in input price increases, while the prices received index held steady at 25.7, suggesting that selling price increases remained moderate," according to the NY Fed report.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$18.63 (+0.56%)
5-Day Change: +$50.47 (+1.53%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,354.48 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +38.75

Gold eased back toward the midpoint of the range after this morning's warmer inflation reading tempered rate cut expectations and boosted yields and the dollar. I consider the CPI data as largely benign and therefore not the catalyst for a range breakout we needed.



PPI comes out tomorrow, and import/export prices on Thursday. I'm not expecting anything disruptive in either case, suggesting the range is likely to hold.

The chart pattern that has emerged over the past couple of months is indicative of a symmetrical triangle, which is a continuation pattern. The technician in me continues to favor an eventual upside breakout.

The World Gold Council's Mid-Year Outlook seems to come to a similar conclusion, suggesting "gold may move sideways with some possible upside – increasing an additional 0%-5% in the second half." However, the WGC notes that increased safe-haven demand could push gold up an additional 10-15% from here if "economic and financial conditions deteriorate, exacerbating stagflationary pressures and geoeconomic tensions."

"On the flipside, widespread and sustained conflict resolution – something that appears unlikely in the current environment – would see gold give back 12%-17% of this year’s gains," according to the report.

Resilient risk-on sentiment and buoyant gold suggest the market may have a slightly different take. Regardless of shifts in risk appetite, central banks are likely to continue buying gold as reserve diversification. That has contributed to the heightened awareness of gold as portfolio diversification among individual investors.

A climb above $3,400 is needed to reinvigorate the bull camp, but Monday's high at $3,374.11 stands in the way. More importantly, penetration of the 16-Jun high at $3,449.14 is needed to put the record high at $3,500 back in play.

However, the consolidative tone is trying the patience of the bulls. This may prompt some short-term liquidations, which could drive gold back to the lower limit of the range-within-the-range at $3,256.02 (30-Jun low). Intervening support is marked by triangle support around $3,300 and last week's low at $3,284.61.

The 100-day (~$3,218) and 20-week (~$3,237) moving averages have climbed above $3,200, which should help keep the low end of the primary range at $3,127.12 at bay. Dips within the range should continue to be viewed as buying opportunities.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.170 (+0.46%)
5-Day Change: +$1.512 (+4.01%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $39.119
52-Week Range: $26.524 - $39.119
Weighted Alpha: +35.74

Silver is trading lower on the week after failing to sustain yesterday's surge to 14-year highs above $39. The market was certainly overextended at the highs yesterday, so it was not surprising to see a pullback. Softer gold and a firmer dollar are adding some additional weight today.



The latest Trump tariff threats played a role in silver's recent price surge, although there hasn't been any official indication that the white metal's exempt status will be changed. That probably factored into selling interest above $39. I continue to believe threatened copper tariffs will be walked back.

Even with the retreat, silver is still up 30% YTD, modestly outpacing gold's performance so far this year. Strong industrial and investment demand, along with a persistent supply deficit, remain broadly supportive for silver.

Yesterday's breach of the $38.750 Fibonacci objective bodes well for a push to $40. Beyond the latter, the next Fibonacci target is $41.610 (78.6% retracement of the entire decline from $49.752 to $11.703).

Thus far, losses have stalled shy of the previous cycle high at $37.288. Below that, the $37.198/$36.956 zone protects the 20-day moving average at $36.693. 


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold sets two-week highs on rising trade tensions, as silver surges to 14-year highs

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Trade tensions are back on the upswing after President Trump announced 35% tariffs on Canadian imports would go into effect on August 1. ″[Canada] has many Tariff, and Non-Tariff, Policies and Trade Barriers, which cause unsustainable Trade Deficits against the United States ... The Trade Deficit is a major threat to our Economy and, indeed, our National Security,” according to the letter sent to Canadian PM Mark Carney.

Trump also believes Canada is not doing enough to halt the flow of fentanyl. He went on to warn Canada not to retaliate. “If for any reason you decide to raise your Tariffs, then, whatever the number you choose to raise them by, will be added onto the 35% that we charge,” he wrote.

The S&P 500 and NASDAQ have retreated from Thursday's record highs as diminished risk appetite prompts profit taking ahead of the weekend. Gains in the DJIA this week stalled ahead of 45,000, leaving the Nov/Jan double top at 45,0054/071 intact.

The Administration also escalated pressure on the Fed and Chairman Powell this week. “The president is extremely troubled by your management of the Federal Reserve system,” wrote Russel Vought, the director of the Office of Management and Budget, in a letter to Powell.

With inflation in check despite trade uncertainties, and the economy and labor market resilient, Trump believes the Fed funds rate is 300 bps too high. However, markets are signalling a far less dovish reality, with Fed funds futures pricing just under 50 bps in cuts by year-end.

There's quite a bit of FedSpeak on tap next week, and the Beige Book comes out on Tuesday. Arguably, the two most dovish FOMC members are Governor Waller and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, but nobody is even close to being on board with what President Trump is asking for.

"I think we're too tight, and we could consider cutting the policy rate in July," Waller said on Thursday. Fed funds futures suggest there's just a 6.7% chance of a 25 bps cut at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting.

After this week's thin economic calendar, the market is eagerly looking ahead to next week's inflation data. Expectations suggest both CPI and PPI will remain subdued with scope for modest downticks in annualized inflation rates.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$21.66 (+0.65%)
5-Day Change: +$13.59 (+0.41%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,354.48 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +38.82

Gold is setting new highs for the week, as heightened trade tensions spurred safe-haven demand. While the yellow metal appears poised for a second straight higher weekly close, gains above last week's high at $3,364.27 have been limited.

 

A more convincing breach of that level would bode well for a move back above $3,400. Penetration of the 16-Jun high at $3,449.14 would put the record high at $3,500 back in play.

The dollar index is trading higher for a ninth consecutive session, providing a headwind for gold. However, momentum on dollar upticks has been lackluster, and I still see the gains as corrective.

I also believe the recent consolidation in gold is a mere pause in the long-term uptrend. Price action since mid-May has formed a symmetrical triangle. An eventual upside breakout would project gold to new record highs.

When asked about a bear case for gold, the World Gold Council's Ray Jia thinks the yellow metal could face short- to mid-term pressure if:  

• Geopolitical or trade risks ease – cooling risk and uncertainty, or
• The dollar strengthens and yields rise – higher opportunity costs, or
• Gold investment demand (central bank purchases, or ETF buying, or retail bullion demand) slows – weakening momentum.

While hopes for a ceasefire in Gaza remain elevated, meaningful progress toward a ceasefire and peace deal in Ukraine has been elusive. President Trump seems pretty committed to creating a path to peace for both conflicts.

Despite recent upticks, the dollar index set a more than three-year low just last week. Meanwhile, global central banks remain tilted toward easing, and the Fed is widely expected to resume rate cuts later this year.

Central bank gold demand remains robust amid U.S. fiscal worries and ongoing de-dollarization. There is no indication that it will change anytime soon.

Global ETFs saw H1 inflows of $38 bln (322 tonnes), the strongest first half performance since H1'20, driven by geopolitical risks, trade war worries, and dovish central bank policies. Total global AUM hit a record $383 bln with holdings at 3,616 tonnes, the highest in 34 months.

On the downside, the important 30-Jun low at $3,256.02 (30-Jun low) is now well protected by tiers of support at $3,323.20 (today's low), and Wednesday's low at $3,284.61.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.519 (+1.40%)
5-Day Change: +$0.748 (+2.03%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $37.682
52-Week Range: $26.524 - $37.682
Weighted Alpha: +28.70

Silver has surged to 14-year highs above $38, shrugging off any headwind provided by a firmer dollar. The white metal is being spurred by firmer gold prices and this week's record highs in copper.

 

I have maintained that the supply and demand fundamentals remain broadly supportive. The proliferation of computers and cell phones over the past decade drove a 78% surge in silver demand for electronics from 272 Moz in 2015 to 486 Moz in 2024. Solar demand surged 289% over the same period.

Meanwhile, demand has exceeded available supply since 2021. This year's deficit is expected to be 149 Moz, marking the fifth consecutive year of supply deficit. 

The Silver Institute notes that silver ETPs saw inflows of 95 Moz in H1, surpassing the total for all of last year. Total global holdings reached 1.13 Boz, within striking distance of the COVID-era high at 1.21 Boz.

Clearly, investors are taking a heightened interest in silver both as a strategic investment and a safe-haven alternative to gold. Silver tends to perform well during periods of uncertainty, high inflation, and currency depreciation.

The long-standing Fibonacci objective at $38.750 is within striking distance. Above that, the $40 level attracts. Beyond the latter, the next Fibonacci target is at $41.610.

Former resistance at $37.288/198 now marks first support, and protects today's overseas low at $36.956. The 20-day moving average has been an important support over the past week and comes in at  $36.556 today.

Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver remain well contained within their ranges, awaiting fresh inputs

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Copper is back pressuring record highs after President Trump clarified that 50% tariffs will take effect on Aug 1. While consistency and clarity have not been hallmarks of the Administration's trade policy, U.S. companies will likely accelerate stockpiling over the next several weeks.

Hoarding, associated with tariff front-running, has been driving up the price of copper ever since President Trump first launched an investigation into copper imports early in his term. At the first mention of 50% tariffs early this week, copper surged to record highs near $6.

Trump threatened Brazil with tariffs of 50%, even though the U.S. has carried a trade surplus with the country. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has said that he will retaliate with reciprocal 50% tariffs. 

Trump has a beef with President Lula, after former President Jair Bolsonaro, a Trump ally, was charged with an attempted coup. "This is nothing more, or less, than an attack on a Political Opponent — Something I know much about!," wrote Trump on TruthSocial.

Despite Trump dialing up the pressure on trading partners that have not yet struck deals, the trade remains tilted toward risk-on. The resilience of the U.S. economy, expectations that the Fed will resume easing later in the year, optimism that trade deals will be worked out, and hopes for a Gaza ceasefire are all underpinnning risk appetite.

The minutes from the June FOMC meeting came out yesterday afternoon, and as expected, they didn't provide any new insights. The Fed remains on hold amid trade policy uncertainties and generally balanced price and growth risks.

Initial Jobless Claims fell 5k to 227k in the week ended 5-Jul, below expectations of 234k, versus a revised 232k in the previous week (was 233k). Continuing claims rose 10k to 1,965k in the 28-Jun week, versus 1,955k in the previous week.   

GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$12.77 (+0.39%)
5-Day Change: -$6.44 (-0.18%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,352.28 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +37.06

Gold is trading modestly higher for a second straight session, even as the dollar index edged to a two-week high. The yellow metal continues to straddle the midpoint of the range at $3,311.51, awaiting fresh impetus.

 

The dollar index rebounded from yesterday's intraday losses, notching a seventh consecutive higher close, and seems to be on track for an eighth. However, the DX is less than 1.5% above the more than three-year low set last week. Recent dollar gains appear to be corrective.

The dearth of U.S. economic data this week has the trade looking ahead to next week's inflation and retail sales reports. CPI is out on Tuesday (+0.3% expected), PPI on Wednesday (+0.2% expected), and retail sales on Thursday (+0.1% expected).

While gold remains entrenched in its range, the chart pattern that has developed over the past couple of months appears to be a continuation pattern. This favors an eventual upside breakout and resumption of the dominant uptrend.

A breach of Tuesday's high at $3,344.27 would clear the way for probes back above $3,400. More substantial resistance marked by the 16-Jun high at $3,449.14 must be exceeded to put the record high at $3,500 back in play.

Yesterday's low at $3,284.61 protects the more important 30-Jun low at $3,256.02. The 100-day moving average has risen to the $3,200 zone, which should keep the range low at $3,127.12 (15-May) at bay.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.362 (+0.99%)
5-Day Change: -$0.186 (-0.50%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $37.288
52-Week Range: $26.524 - $37.288
Weighted Alpha: +23.91

Silver is recovering somewhat from three days of losses, after failing to sustain Monday's probe back above $37. The white metal is being helped by a second day of gains in gold and ongoing strength in copper.



Market focus remains on trade developments, and copper has become an increasingly significant piece of that puzzle. As silver has migrated in recent decades from a monetary metal to an industrial metal, it has become less correlated with gold and arguably more correlated with copper.

The gold/silver ratio has traded above 100 in recent years, rising from a historic average of 15, to a 100-year average of 40, to a 25-year average of 68. The copper/silver ratio has been in a fairly stable 0.3/0.1 range throughout much of history, but more recently has been confined to the lower half of that range.

Tuesday's high at $36.864 has been slightly penetrated, and a more convincing breach would bode well for further probes above $37. The more substantial  $37.198/288 zone must be negated to bolster confidence in previously established upside objectives at $38.750 (Fibonacci) and $40 (psychological).

On the downside, the 20-day moving average ($36.453) has provided decent support over the past week and should help keep Monday's low at $36.201 at bay. More substantial support at $35.369 (24-Jun low) is considered well protected at this point.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver remain range-bound, with focus still on tariff developments

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Markets remain focused on tariff developments. The previously announced 90-day pause in tariffs was set to expire today, but President Trump pushed the trade deal deadline back to August 1.

Notices were sent to numerous countries warning that reciprocal tariffs would take effect on August 1, and the President vowed that the deadline would not be extended. Nonetheless, some degree of optimism remains that deals will be struck with major trading partners.

Trump shocked the market late on Tuesday when he said. “I believe the tariff on copper we’re going to make it 50%.” Spot copper surged to a record high of $5.870. Front-month copper futures reached a record high of $5.9535, and the spread between London and New York futures widened to 26%.

President Trump signed an executive order in February that launched an investigation into copper imports, noting that "The United States faces significant vulnerabilities in the copper supply chain, with increasing reliance on foreign sources for mined, smelted, and refined copper."

It's prudent for the U.S. to take strides to boost mining, smelting, and refining capacity to shorten and harden the copper supply chain. However, this is a long-term proposition.

The price of copper is up nearly 40% year-to-date, with significant implications for the construction, power generation/transmission, auto, aircraft, and defense sectors. It strikes me that the threat of a 50% tariff on copper could be another negotiating ploy.

Russia launched another record drone attack against Ukraine, although Ukraine said most were shot down. The attack came hours after President Trump announced the U.S. would be sending more defensive weapons to Ukraine. This is likely a significant setback to ceasefire negotiations.

Hopes for a ceasefire and hostage release deal between Israel and Hamas remain elevated. "I think we're getting closer to a deal," said President Trump after meetings with Israeli PM Netanyahu.

The minutes from the June FOMC meeting come out today. I don't expect any great revelations as the central bank remains on hold amid tariff uncertainty. The doves are already on the ropes after better-than-expected June jobs data.

Today's $39 bln 10-year reopening was well received, thanks largely to the direct bid. The indirect bid, a reflection of foreign interest, was moderate. Nonetheless, bids totaled $101.8 bln for a solid 2.61 cover, and a high yield of 4.362%.

MBA Mortgage Applications rose 9.4% in the week ended 4-Jul, versus +2.7% in the previous week. The 30-year mortgage rate fell to a 13-week low of 6.77%, versus 6.79% in the previous week.

Wholesale Sales declined 0.3% in May, versus a revised unch in April (was +0.1%). Inventories fell 0.3% on expectations of +0.2%, versus +0.2% in April.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$5.37 (-0.16%)
5-Day Change: -$50.96 (-1.52%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,354.48 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +36.28

Gold set a new low for the week at $3,284.61, but remains confined to last week's range and right around the midpoint ($3,311.51) of the broader range that has been in place since mid-May. In the absence of significant U.S. data this week, the yellow metal is consolidating as it awaits fresh impetus.



Good interest in today's 10-year auction saw yields moderate somewhat, providing an intraday bid for the yellow metal. The dollar index eased slightly after six straight sessions of gains.

Price action since May still appears to be a large continuation pattern, favoring an eventual upside breakout and resumption of the dominant uptrend. Bank of America sees gold reaching $4,000 over the next year, driven largely by U.S. fiscal worries.

Passage of President Trump's signature 1BBB is expected to add trillions to the already bloated national debt over the next decade, further eroding confidence in Treasuries and the dollar. This ongoing trend has already increased the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset.

A sustained move above the midpoint of the range at $3,311.51 would return focus to yesterday's high at $3,344.27. Penetration of the latter would clear the way for probes back above $3,400. More substantial resistance marked by the 16-Jun high at $3,449.14 must be cleared to put the record high at $3,500 back in play.

Today's early U.S. low at $3,284.61 now provides a good intervening barrier, protecting the more important 30-Jun low at $3,256.02. The 100-day moving average has risen to the $3,200 zone, which should keep the $3,127.12 range low (15-May) at bay.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.138 (-0.38%)
5-Day Change: -$0.154 (-0.42%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $37.288
52-Week Range: $26.524 - $37.288
Weighted Alpha: +22.70

Silver remains defensive within the range established on Monday, but gold's turn higher on the day, a slightly easier dollar, and yesterday's record highs in copper provide some underpinning. The 20-day moving average has provided support so far this week.



While silver is underperforming today, this week's move in the gold/silver ratio below 90 constituted the first breach of the 50-day MA since December. That suggests potential in the ratio to the 85 zone.

As long as Monday's low at $36.201 is intact, I think the downside is well protected. This level also corresponds closely with the midpoint of the $37.288/$35.369 range.

Today's Asian high $36.757 and yesterday's high at $36.864 now protect the $37 level. The more substantial  $37.198/288 zone must be cleared to set new cycle highs and bolster confidence in previously established upside objectives at $38.750 (Fibonacci) and $40 (psychological).


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold eases on trade and ceasefire optimism, firmer dollar

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Israeli PM Netanyahu met on Monday with President Trump, stoking optimism about a ceasefire in Gaza. Both Israel and Hamas have reportedly accepted a US-sponsored framework that begins with a 60-day ceasefire, but progress toward a permanent end to the fighting remains elusive.

As long as the two combatants are talking in Qatar, there is reason for hope. “I don’t think that I can give any timeline at the moment, but I can say right now that we will need time for this,” said Qatar’s foreign ministry spokesperson.

With the July 9 tariff deadline looming, the White House has ramped up pressure on trading partners that have not yet struck deals, but also provided additional time for negotiation. President Trump sent letters to at least 14 countries on Monday, including Japan and South Korea, notifying them that tariffs will take effect on August 1.

More letters are expected to go out this week. And Trump has vowed that there will be no extensions beyond August 1. We'll see...

The EU is rushing to make a preliminary trade deal with the U.S. this week to avoid a jump in tariffs from 10% to 50%. However, there are some disagreements within the bloc, as some member countries will benefit more than others.

Markets seem optimistic about an EU deal and liked that the deadline was pushed back several weeks. However, a fair amount of uncertainty prevails.

That uncertainty factored into the RBA's decision to buck expectations and hold steady on rates. "While the final scope of US tariffs and policy responses in other countries remains unknown, financial market prices have rebounded with an expectation that the most extreme outcomes are likely to be avoided," according to the policy statement.

Fed rate cut expectations have been tempered since last week's release of better-than-expected U.S. jobs data for June. While easing is still likely to resume later in the year, 50 bps of cuts are no longer fully priced in for year-end.

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index slipped 0.2 points to 98.6 in June, versus 98.8 in May.

Small business optimism remained steady in June while uncertainty fell. Taxes remain the top issue on Main Street, but many others are still concerned about labor quality and high labor costs. – NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg

GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$12.41 (-0.37%)
5-Day Change: -$11.52 (-0.35%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,352.28 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +36.65

Gold edged below $3,300, weighed by optimism on trade, potential for a ceasefire in Gaza, and a firmer dollar. However, price action remains well contained within last week's range and the broader consolidative pattern.



Secondary support at $3,256.02 (30-Jun low) may be the short-term attraction. The 100-day moving average has risen to the $3,200 zone, providing good intervening support ahead of the range low at $3,127.12 (15-May low).

However, ongoing central bank and investor demand underpins the market. Global ETFs saw 26.1 tonnes of inflows in the week ended 27-Jun. North American investors continue to lead the charge, adding 13.8 tonnes to holdings.

 

According to the World Gold Council, collective ETF holdings rose 397 tonnes to 3,616 tonnes in the first six months of the year. Total AUM surged 41% to $383 bln in H1.

Meanwhile, central banks bought a net total of 427 tonnes of gold in the first half of 2025. While that's slower than the record 483 tonnes bought in H1'24, official sector demand remains robust, and a recent survey of central bankers suggests that will continue.

A rebound above the midpoint of the range at $3,311.51 would return focus to today's overseas high at $3,344.27. Penetration of the latter would bode well for tests above $3,400. However, the 16-Jun high at $3,449.14 must be cleared to put the record high at $3,500 back in play.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.037 (+0.10%)
5-Day Change: +$0.691 (+1.92%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $37.288
52-Week Range: $26.524 - $37.288
Weighted Alpha: +24.23

Silver dropped back to the 20-day moving average, weighed by the retreat in gold and a firmer dollar. However, optimism on trade provides some underpinning, and price action has been confined to Monday's range thus far. The gold/silver ratio remains near recent lows, just above 90.



Yesterday's failure to sustain gains above $37 presents some risk of a double top, but the confirmation point for that pattern is well protected at $35.369 (24-Jun low). Intervening support is marked by Monday's low at $36.201, which is fairly close to the midpoint of the recent range.

A move back above today's overseas highs at $36.864 would favor further tests above $37. The more substantial  $37.198/288 zone must be negated to bolster confidence in previously established upside objectives at $38.750 (Fibonacci) and $40 (psychological).


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.