Gold and silver consolidate Friday's gains, look to fresh inputs to clarify Fed policy path
OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Speaking at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday, Fed Chairman Powell hinted that a September interest rate cut may be appropriate. "[W]ith policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance."
While markets reacted to the statement, Fed funds futures suggest the probability of a 25-bps cut at the September FOMC meeting hasn't changed significantly. Those odds currently stand at 83.1%, compared to 82.7% a week ago.
The trade will be paying close attention to the second reading on Q2 GDP on Thursday and the PCE report on Friday. An upward revision to GDP or signs of accelerating inflation would temper September rate cut expectations.
The dollar index reached a three-week low on Friday, after forays into the upper half of the recent range sparked selling interest. The dominant trend in the dollar remains bearish.
Vice President JD Vance told Meet the Press on Sunday that Russian President Putin has made some concessions concerning the war in Ukraine. Putin told Trump he would respect the territorial integrity of Ukraine after the fighting ends, but it remains likely that Kyiv will have to give up some territory to get to that point.
“They’ve recognized that they’re not going to be able to install a puppet regime in Kyiv, and importantly, they’ve acknowledged that there is going to be some security guarantee to the territorial integrity of Ukraine,” Vance said.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Moscow views Ukraine's Zelenskyy as “illegitimate,” dimming hopes for a summit between Putin and Zelenskyy. “Irrespective of when this meeting might take place, and that must be very well prepared, the issue of who is going to sign the deal on Ukrainian side is a very serious issue,” Lavrov claimed.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index ticked down 0.01 points to -0.19 in July, versus a revised -0.18 in June (-0.10).
New Home Sales ebbed to a 0.652M pace in July, above expectations of 0.635M, versus a revised 0.656M in June (was 0.627M).
Dallas Fed Index fell 2.7 points to -1.8 in August, versus 0.9 in July. The July print was the only positive reading since January.
Today was the Summer Bank Holiday in the UK. Markets were closed, and there were no fixes.
GOLD
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$6.54 (-0.19%)
5-Day Change: +$36.30 (+1.09%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,474.08 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +32.57
Gold remains range-bound, although Powell's dovish comments on Friday prompted a test of the upper limits of the symmetrical triangle. The trade now awaits further inputs to gauge the likelihood that the Fed will resume its easing campaign.
As the yellow metal approaches the apex of that triangle pattern, we are also approaching the traditional end of the "summer doldrums." Historically, investors become reengaged at the end of the summer, and we start to see buying in advance of Diwali and the Indian wedding season.
I believe gold will ultimately break out to the upside and resume its bullish trend. However, I wouldn't be surprised by a headfake to the downside to first shake out weak longs.
The 100-day moving average has provided good support in recent weeks and corresponds closely with Friday's low at $3.322.00. Last week's low at $3,311.66 provides an additional intervening barrier ahead of more important lows at $3,270.50 (30-Jul) and $3,256.02 (30-Jun).
Friday's convincing breach of the 50- and 20-day moving averages at $3,346.57/48.53 bodes well for renewed short-term tests above $3,400. Penetration of the 8-Aug high at $3,403.42 would shift focus to $3,435.01 (23-Jul high).
SILVER
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.196 (-0.50%)
5-Day Change: +$0.741 (+1.95%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $39.517
52-Week Range: $27.732 - $39.517
Weighted Alpha: +36.22
Silver is consolidating Friday's knee-jerk reaction to Powell's comments. While lower on the day, the white metal is trading at the high end of Friday's range.
While tests above $39 have been unsustained thus far, with the 78.6% Fibonacci objective exceeded, a retest of the 14-year high at $39.517 (23-Jul) looks likely. Beyond the latter, $40 attracts.
Today's earlier U.S. low at $38.578 now protects the midpoint of Friday's range at $38.383. The 20-day moving average is well protected at $37.893.
Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com
Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.
Gold set for lower weekly close on dimmed rate cut expectations, Alaska summit hopes
OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: All eyes are on Alaska today as Presidents Trump and Putin meet to try to hash out a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Before leaving Washington, DC, acknowledge the importance of the meeting, posting “HIGH STAKES!!!” on TruthSocial.
U.S. trade price inflation warmed in July, led by a 0.4% rise in the import price index. This heightened worries that tariffs may be stoking inflation following Thursday's much hotter-than-expected PPI print.
Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee told CNBC that this week's inflation data “put in a note of unease.” Goolsbee is a centrist hawk and would like to see another month of data to confirm that the economy remains on the “golden path” of moderating inflation and a stable labor market.
While hopes for a 50 bps Fed rate cut in September have faded, the market continues to believe a 35 bps cut is in the offing. Fed funds futures put the probability at 90.6%. Just over 50 bps of cuts are priced in by year-end.
Retail sales rose for a second straight month. While encouraging after the weakness seen in the spring, consumers remain cautious compared to last year. Ongoing uncertainty about trade policies and inflation is certainly a contributing factor.
Markets are tilted toward risk-off today, but the DJIA still reached a record high. Profit-taking is evident in the S&P500 and NASDAQ, after those indexes set record highs earlier in the week.
Retail Sales rose 0.5% in July, in line with expectations, versus a positive revised +0.9% in June (was +0.6%). Ex-auto +0.3%, in line wth expectations, versus a revised +0.8% (was +0.5%).
Empire State Index rose 6.4 points to a nine-month high of 11.9 in August, above expectations of -1.0, versus 5.5 in July. "New orders and shipments increased. Delivery times lengthened significantly, and supply availability worsened somewhat," according to the report.
Import Price Index +0.4% in July, above expectations of UNCH, versus a revised -0.1% in June (was +0.1%). Ex-petro +0.3% versus a revised -0.2% in June (was UNCH).
Export Price Index +0.1% in July, above expectations of UNCH, versus +0.5% in June.
Industrial Production slipped 0.1% in July on expectations of UNCH, versus a revised +0.4% in June (was +0.3%). Capacity utilization edged down to 77.5% from 77.7%.
Business Inventories +0.2% in June, in line with expectations, versus UNCH in May.
Michigan Sentiment (prelim) fell to 58.6 in August, below expectations of 62.2, versus 61.7 in July.
GOLD
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$1.90 (+0.06%)
5-Day Change: -$55.43 (-1.63%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,451.50 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +31.91
Gold remains entrenched within the range that has dominated since May. The yellow metal is holding above the midpoint of that range but appears poised for its first lower weekly close in three.
Gold softened this week as inflation readings caused rate cut expectations to ebb, providing some support for the dollar. However, the dollar index is set to close lower on the week, and the threat of revived inflation should help underpin gold.
If President Trump can secure a ceasefire in Ukraine, gold would see additional selling pressure. If the Alaska summit stokes hopes for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, more intense selling would be likely as safe-haven positions get unwound.
Thursday's low at $3,332.10 marks initial support and stands in front of the midpoint of the three-month range at $3,313.56. Below that, the convergence of the 100-day moving average and the lower limit of the triangle pattern at $3,307.16/$3,300.00 protects important lows at $3,270.50 (30-Jul) and $3,256.02 (30-Jun).
A rebound above the 20-day moving average at $3,356.43is needed to set a more favorable tone within the range. Thursday's high at $3,373.02 must be cleared to allow for renewed tests above $3,400.
SILVER
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.202 (-0.53%)
5-Day Change: -$0.497 (-1.30%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $39.517
52-Week Range: $27.732 - $39.517
Weighted Alpha: +32.26
Silver was unable to sustain the push to three-week highs on Thursday and appears on track for a lower weekly close. Unexpectedly weak economic data out of China is weighing on both copper and silver. 
The breach of Wednesday's low at $37.862 and convincing dive below the 20-day moving average leaves Tuesday's low at $37.567 vulnerable to a test. Below that, a challenge of the 50-day MA at $37.307 would become likely.
A rise back above the 20-day MA at $38.082 would ease short-term pressure on the downside somewhat. Thursday's high at $38.728 now protects the previously targeted $38.826 Fibonacci level. Above the latter, the 14-year high at $39.517 (23-Jul) and $40 would be back in play.
Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com
Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.
Gold retreats to new lows for the week as hot PPI trims rate cut expectations, lifts dollar
OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Producer price inflation accelerated more than expected in July. Headline and core PPI jumped 0.9% m/m, the hottest since March 2022.
Tariffs, especially on imported food like fresh and dry vegetables (+38.9%), were a major driver of the July 2025 PPI surge. Services costs (+2.0%) were also a significant contributing factor.
Some sources suggest that businesses have been absorbing much of the tariff costs, which has thus far limited the impact on consumer prices. However, PPI data shows tariffs are inflating wholesale prices; at least some of that is likely to be passed along to the consumer eventually.
While Treasuries came under pressure and the dollar firmed, the trade continues to believe the Fed is poised to ease next month. Prospects for a 25 bps rate cut in September were pared to 90.6%, versus 94.3% yesterday, but up from 91.9% a week ago. The implied Fed funds rate for December is 3.8225%, 55 bps lower than the current rate.
The market has priced out the slight potential for a 50 bps cut that developed after Treasury Secretary Bessent's comments on Wednesday. Bessent subsequently clarified that he was merely saying various economic models suggest 150 to 175 of easing is needed to achieve a neutral rate. "I didn't tell the Fed what to do," he said.
The national debt surpassed the $37 trillion milestone this week. Back in 2020, the CBO projected we wouldn't see $37 trillion until 2030, but COVID-era spending and surging debt servicing costs accelerated the timeline.
The debt will continue to grow after tax cuts and increased spending were passed as part of the 1BBB. Despite the heightened price risks implied by today's PPI data, it seems unlikely that the White House will dial back pressure on the Fed to ease.
Russian President Putin is slated to meet face-to-face with President Trump on Friday in Alaska. The two will discuss a potential ceasefire in Ukraine and try to move toward a lasting peace deal.
Putin called U.S. efforts to reach an agreement to end the war in Ukraine "quite energetic and sincere." Trump suggested that Ukrainian President Zelenskyy could join him and Putin for a second meeting in Alaska. Zelenskyy has vowed not to cede any territory to Russia.
GOLD
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.39 (-0.01%)
5-Day Change: -$44.30 (-1.30%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,435.86 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +32.44
Gold has slipped to new lows for the week after the hot PPI print trimmed rate cut expectations for September and lifted the dollar. However, the specter of higher inflation should help limit the downside.
The next tier of support is marked by the midpoint of the three-month range at $3,313.56. Below that, the convergence of the 100-day moving average and the lower limit of the triangle pattern at $3,304.59/$3,300.00 protects the lows at $3,270.50 (30-Jul) and $3,256.02 (30-Jun).
A close above the 20-day moving average at $3,356.99 is needed to set a more favorable tone within the range. Today's Asian high at $3,373.02 must be cleared to allow for renewed tests above $3,400.
The market will continue to digest the PPI data and the implications for Fed policy. While the range in gold continues to hold, an eventual breakout to the upside remains favored.
SILVER
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.182 (-0.47%)
5-Day Change: -$0.075 (-0.20%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $39.517
52-Week Range: $27.505 - $39.517
Weighted Alpha: +34.07
Silver retreated from a three-week high of $38.728, as heightened price risks trimmed rate cut expectations. A firmer dollar and easier gold also weigh.
A breach of yesterday's low at $37.862 would put the low for the week at $37.567 in jeopardy. Below the latter, the 50-day MA at $37.268 would attract.
A close above the 20-day MA at $38.096 would ease short-term pressure on the downside somewhat. Overseas gains came within a dime of the previously targeted $38.826 Fibonacci level. Above that, the 14-year high at $39.517 (23-Jul) and $40 attract.
Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com
Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.
Gold remains range-bound as heightened risk appetite saps haven interest
OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: China was granted another 90-day extension to continue negotiations toward a durable trade deal. The reprieve underpins risk appetite, suggesting the two sides are committed to reaching an agreement, but it also extends the period of uncertainty.
Headline CPI rose 0.2% and core was up 0.3% in July, in line with expectations. The annualized rate was unchanged at 2.7%. While core inflation accelerated to a five-month high of 3.1% y/y from 2.9% in June, and concerns about tariff impacts persist, price risks were perceived to be largely in check.
The rate cut probability for September rebounded to 94.2% from 85.9% yesterday. Fed funds futures are pricing 59 bps of easing by year-end.
Fed governor Michelle Bowman made the case over the weekend for three rate cuts this year. "A proactive approach in moving policy closer to neutral, from its current moderately restrictive stance, would help avoid a further unnecessary erosion in labor market conditions and reduce the chance that the Committee will need to implement a larger policy correction should the labor market deteriorate further," she said.
Risk assets like the extension of the China trade truce and the prospects for the Fed to resume its easing campaign. Optimism about the Trump/Putin summit on Friday, even as Russia steps up attacks in Ukraine, is contributing to risk appetite. U.S. shares are broadly higher, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ reaching record highs.
GOLD
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$2.22 (+0.07%)
5-Day Change: -$33.38 (-0.99%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,435.86 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +32.18
Gold remains defensive within the range as heightened risk appetite weighs on safe-haven interest. However, lower yields and a softer dollar provide some underpinning.
President Trump confirmed on Monday that "Gold will not be Tariffed!" This calmed concerns that surfaced last week after a Customs and Border Enforcement ruling and coding raised questions.
The retreat below the 20- and 50-day moving averages leaves the yellow metal vulnerable back to the midpoint of the three-month range at $3,313.56. Below that, the 100-day MA at $3,298.37 corresponds with the lower limit of the triangle pattern, and protects recent lows at $3,270.50 (30-Jul) and $3,256.02 (30-Jun).
Nonetheless, gold is holding up pretty well, trading less than 5% off the record highs set in April around $3,500. An eventual upside breakout and resumption of the dominant uptrend remain favored.
Gold ETFs saw net inflows of 14.7 tonnes last week. There have only been four weekly outflows this year, and twelve over the last 52 weeks, suggesting investment interest remains robust. The World Gold Council notes that "global inflows are currently on pace for their second strongest year on record."
In Q2, gold-backed ETFs saved the day according to the WGC. Overall, U.S. demand fell 34% q/q as near-record-high prices weighed on jewelry and bar and coin demand.
UBS projects total gold demand to rise 3% to a 14-year high of 4,760 metric tonnes this year, driven largely by investment flows. “ETF demand is now expected to exceed 600 metric tons for 2025, revised upward from 450 metric tons,” according to the bank.
UBS cited geopolitical risks, fear of sanctions, worries about Fed independence, and ongoing de-dollarization trends as factors underpinning the gold market. Central bank demand has slowed, but remains structurally strong. “Almost all respondents—69 of 73 central banks—expect to increase or maintain their gold reserves,” UBS reported.
A close back above the 20-day moving averages at $3,356.90 would favor further attacks on the $3,400 zone. Successive highs at $3403.42 (08-Aug), $3,435.01 (23-Jul), and $3,449.13 (16-Jun) must all be cleared to allow for a retest of record highs around $3,500 and return confidence to the $4,000 objective.
SILVER
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.092 (+0.24%)
5-Day Change: -$0.123 (-0.33%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $39.517
52-Week Range: $27.237 - $39.517
Weighted Alpha: +31.59
Silver is recovering from Monday's losses, boosted by reduced trade tensions and a weaker dollar. The white metal remains lower on the week, trading in the upper half of last week's range.
A close above the 20-day moving average at $38.074 would encourage the bull camp, returning focus to last week's high at $38.475 and the $38.826 Fibonacci level. Beyond the latter, the 14-year high set on 23-Jul at $39.517 and the $40 objective would be back in play.
Today's Asian low at $37.567 now provides an intervening barrier ahead of last Tuesday's low at $37.337 and the 50-day moving average at $37.142. Last week's low at $36.770 and the more important $36.287 low from 31-Jul now look to be well protected.
Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com
Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.
