Blog posts tagged with 'palladium'

Gold trades at new record highs above $3,600 as cooling labor market spurs haven demand

Outside Market Developments: The much-anticipated jobs report reflects ongoing cooling in the labor market, amid uncertainty on tariffs and the fiscal situation. Only 22k new payrolls were recorded in August, and there were back-month revisions totaling -21k. June was revised down to -18k, the first negative NFP print since the pandemic.

Weakness in the jobs data has likely sealed the deal for at least a 25-bps rate cut on September 17-Sep. There is now a 10% probability for a 50 bps cut.

Market focus now shifts to next week's inflation data. Median expectations are +0.3% m/m for both August CPI and PPI. At this point, we'd have to see a significant acceleration in inflation to raise doubts about a September rate cut. That seems unlikely.

I've suggested in recent commentary that some FOMC members may be inclined to assert the Fed's independence at the next meeting in the face of significant White House pressure to ease. I still think there is some risk, but less so in light of today's jobs data and the absence of any pre-blackout Fedspeak to temper dovish market expectations.

Nonfarm Payrolls rose 22k in August, well below expectations of +83k, versus a revised +79k in July (was +72k). The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3% from 4.2% in July. Hourly earnings rose 0.3%, in line with expectations. The average workweek was unchanged at 34.2 hours.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$6.04 (+0.17%)
5-Day Change: +$150.94 (+4.38%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,598.89
52-Week Range: $2,487.06 - $3,598.89
Weighted Alpha: +44.81

Gold surged to new record highs above $3,600 after a second month of weak jobs data spurred haven interest. The yellow metal is poised for a third straight higher weekly close.



Signs of further labor market cooling boosted September rate cut expectations, weighing on yields and the dollar. This provided additional lift for gold.

The $3,601.32 Fibonacci objective was satisfied and slightly exceeded. The next levels to watch on the upside are $3,700 (psychological), $3,730.44 (Fibonacci), and $3,743 (measuring objective).

Minor support at $3,578.40/73.70 protects the intraday low at $3,540.30. Thursday's corrective low at $3,512.35 will be an important level to watch in the week ahead.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.069 (+0.17%)
5-Day Change: +$1.346 (+3.39%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $41.459
52-Week Range: $27.732 - $41.459
Weighted Alpha: +50.28

Silver is trading higher, buoyed by fresh all-time highs in gold, more dovish Fed expectations, and a softer dollar. The white metal is underperforming, as the weaker jobs picture suggests potential for diminished industrial demand. Nonetheless, silver is still up more than 3% this week and will record a third straight higher weekly close.



Important resistance at $41.513/$41.610 was approached on Wednesday, but was left intact. This area must be cleared to lend credence to the extended bullish scenario and put record highs around $50 in play.

Today's intraday low at $40.558 stands in front of Thursday's corrective low at $40.413. Additional support is noted at $40.148 down to $40.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Good morning. The precious metals are higher in early U.S. trading.

U.S. calendar features Nonfarm Payrolls.

Payrolls increased by a mere 22k in August, below expectations of +83k. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.3%.

Gold and silver pull back from recent highs, awaiting tomorrow's jobs report

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Further signs of a cooling labor market continue to stoke expectations of a rate cut this month. The probability for a 25 bps cut at the next FOMC meeting has risen to 97.4%, versus 86.4% a week ago.

The ADP Employment Report indicated private payrolls grew by just 54,000 in August, below the expected 75,000. Initial jobless claims rose to 237,000 last week, above the forecast of 230,000. Challenger layoffs rose 23,900 to 86,000. These data suggest downside risk for tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls report.

The revisions to Q2 productivity and ULCs suggest improved efficiency and reduced inflationary pressure from labor costs.

Markets remain on edge over tariff uncertainties. A federal appeals court ruled last week that most of Trump's global tariffs, imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), are illegal. The ruling is stayed until October 14, giving the Trump administration time to appeal to the Supreme Court.

Challenger Layoffs rose 23.9k to 86k in August, versus 62.1k in July.

ADP Employment Survey showed private payrolls rose 54k in August, below expectations of 75k, versus a revised 106k in July (was 104k).

Initial Jobless Claims increased 8k to 237k in the week ended 30-Aug, above expectations of 230k, versus 229k in the previous week. Continuing claims eased to 1,940k in the 23-Aug week, versus a revised 1,944k in the previous week (was 1,954k).

Q2 Productivity was revised up to +3.3%, above expectations of +2.6%, versus a preliminary reading of +2.4% and -1.8% in Q1. ULC was revised down to +1.0%, below expectations of +1.4%, versus a preliminary reading of +1.6% and +6.9% in Q1.

Trade Deficit widened to -$78.3 bln in July, inside expectations of -$78.6 bln, versus a revised -$59.1 bln in June (was -$60.2 bln).

S&P Global Services PMI was revised down to 54.5 for August, versus a preliminary print of 55.4 and 55.7 in July.

Services ISM rose 1.9 points to a six-month high of 52.0 in August, above expectations of 51.0, versus 50.1 in July.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$18.32 (-0.51%)
5-Day Change: +$131.18 (+3.84%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,578.40
52-Week Range: $2,487.06 - $3,578.40
Weighted Alpha: +42.04

Gold 

Gold turned modestly corrective in overseas trading after setting a fresh record high of $3,578.40 on Wednesday. The yellow metal had notched seven straight sessions of gains, and today may mark the eighth if a close above $3,559.26 is recorded. 



Intraday dowticks met renewed buying interest ahead of the $3,508.20/$3,500.00 zone, leaving the downside well protected. More substantial supports are noted at $3,470.62 (Tuesday's low) and $3,437.31 (Monday's low). The rising 20-day moving average is at $3.398.37.

Tariff uncertainties, geopolitical risks, rate cut bets, heightened worries about inflation and the fiscal situation are all contributing to haven interest. The recent rise in yields and a firmer dollar pose modest headwinds.

Amid ongoing White House pressure on the Fed to resume its easing campaign, Goldman Sachs has warned that a politicized central bank could have dire consequences for the broader market and drive gold toward $5,000. “A scenario where Fed independence is damaged would likely lead to higher inflation, lower stock and long-dated bond prices, and an erosion of the dollar’s reserve-currency status,” Goldman analysts said in a note.

“In contrast, gold is a store of value that doesn’t rely on institutional trust,” they added. It would take just a small allocation shift from Treasuries to gold to drive the price significantly higher.

My next upside target is $3,601.32 based on a Fibonacci objective. Above that, a measuring objective off the symmetrical triangle breakout suggests potential to $3,743. This week's gains also bolster confidence in the long-standing target of $4000.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.239 (-0.58%)
5-Day Change: +$1.860 (+4.76%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $41.459
52-Week Range: $27.732 - $41.459
Weighted Alpha: +49.41

Silver has pulled back from Wednesday's 14-year high at $41.459, consolidating the last five days of gains. Setbacks are likely to attract buying interest as signs of weakness in the labor market bode well for a rate cut later this month.



With haven interest driving gold to all-time highs this week, the white metal is often viewed as a less expensive alternative. Silver is still more than 20% below its record high.

Yesterday's gains stalled just shy of targeted Fibonacci levels at $41.513 and $41.610. An eventual breach of the latter would lend considerable credence to the bullish scenario that calls for a run at the record highs around $50.

Today's intraday low at $40.413 protects more important supports at $40.148 (Tuesday's low) and $39.574 (Monday's low).  The rising 20-day moving average is well protected below $39 through the end of the week.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold surges to record highs as silver reaches 14-year highs near $41

Outside Market Developments: U.S. markets begin September with sentiment tilted toward a risk-off stance. 
Tariff uncertainties, Fed rate cut expectations, sticky inflation, and upcoming economic data are all contributing to diminished risk appetite.

A federal appeals court ruled on Friday that most of the Trump administration's tariffs are illegal. The levees remain in place as the White House looks to the Supreme Court to settle the matter. If SCOTUS agrees to hear the case, initial arguments likely won't be heard until early 2026.

If SCOTUS refuses to hear the case or upholds the appeals court ruling, the $172.1.bln of tariff revenue collected thus far may have to be refunded. Treasuries are under pressure as the trade prices in heightened fiscal risks, and stocks are under pressure.

"[W]ith the help of the United States Supreme Court, we will use [tariffs] to the benefit of our Nation, and Make America Rich, Strong, and Powerful Again," wrote President Trump on TruthSocial. Negotiations with several key trading partners are ongoing, although the appeals court ruling throws a new wrinkle into the talks, stoking uncertainty.

The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI composite index reached a new high for the year in August, although other data today were less than encouraging to the narrative of a resilient U.S. economy. There were also troubling signs of reviving inflation within the PMI data. "Tariffs caused sharply higher costs that led to the steepest rise in average selling prices in three years," according to S&P.

"Companies have passed tariff-related cost increases through to customers in increasing numbers. The resulting rise in selling prices for goods and services suggests that consumer price inflation will rise further above the Federal Reserve's 2% target in the coming months."

At this point, Fed funds futures continue to reflect a market belief that the Fed is poised to resume its easing campaign this month, having been on pause since the beginning of the year. That could change if further signs of accelerating inflation become evident. PPI and CPI for August will be released next week, and median expectations for both are for modestly warmer readings.

The trade is currently focused on Friday's jobs report. More weak jobs data could seal the deal on a 25 bps rate cut in September. While the pre-FOMC blackout period is underway, I still see some risk that the Fed asserts its independence by holding steady. Upcoming data may provide them cover to do just that.

Before the next FOMC meeting, President Trump will try to get Stephen Milar confirmed to the Fed governor seat vacated by Adriana Kugler's resignation. Meanwhile, Governor Lisa Cook remains in her position, pending a hearing today in U.S. district court, where she could be granted injunctive relief.

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was revised down to 53.0 in August from a preliminary reading of 53.3, versus 49.8 in July.  That's still the highest print since May 2022.

Manufacturing ISM rebounded 0.7 points in August to 48.7 on expectations of 48.8, versus 48.0 in July. Prices moderated to 63.7, versus 64.8 in July.

Construction Spending fell 0.1% in July, inside expectations of -0.2%, versus -0.4% in June.

RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index retreated 2.2 points to 48.7 for September, well below expectations of 51.8, versus 50.9 in August. “Concerns about inflation and the impact of tariffs remain high, with food prices standing out as the leading economic worry,” according to the report.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$9.45 (+0.27%)
5-Day Change: +$87.93 (+2.59%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,508.20
52-Week Range: $2,474.08 - $3,508.20
Weighted Alpha: +38.38

Gold has extended to new all-time highs above $3,500, spurred by heightened tariff uncertainties, inflation worries, rumors about President Trump's health, and a technical breakout. The yellow metal is trading higher for a sixth straight session and is now up nearly 35% year-to-date, shrugging off higher yields and a stronger dollar.



Late-August/early-September is also when gold typically sees a seasonal increase in volatility as the summer doldrums wind down. The symmetrical triangle that formed over the summer months was viewed as a continuation pattern, favoring an eventual upside breakout of the range. 

Sights are now on the $3,601.32 Fibonacci objective. Above that, a measuring objective off the symmetrical triangle breakout suggests potential to $3,743. Considerable credence has also been returned to the long-standing target of $4000.

Former resistance at the $3,508.20/$3,500.00 zone now marks initial support, and should keep today's overseas low at $3,470.62 at bay. The yellow metal has really pulled away from the 20-day moving average, which is well protected at $3,380.77.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.213 (-0.52%)
5-Day Change: +$1.707 (+4.42%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $40.849
52-Week Range: $27.732 - $40.849
Weighted Alpha: +46.43

Silver has extended to fresh 14-year highs near $41, after cracking the $40 threshold on Monday. The technicals and fundamentals remain broadly supportive.



The breach of the $40.396 Fibonacci objective bolsters confidence in the scenario that calls for a challenge of the $41.513/$41.610 zone. Above that, record highs near $50 would very much be in play. The $43.352 (Sep'11 high) and $44.167 (Aug'11 high) mark important intervening chart barriers.

Minor support at $40.885/754 protects today's early U.S. low at $40.148. Additional downside barriers are noted at $40 and $39.574 (Monday's low).


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

8/29/2025

Gold reaches 10-week highs, bolstered by heightened risk aversion, rate cut hopes, weaker dollar

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Today's U.S. economic data reinforces the narrative of a resilient economy with inflation in check. This is keeping expectations for a 25 bps rate cut in September elevated near 90%.

Personal income rose 0.4% and PCE rose 0.5% in July, indicating sustained consumer-driven growth. While buoyant household spending underpins economic growth, worries about the potential detrimental impacts of tariffs, the potential for revived inflation, and troubling signs revealed in the July jobs report linger.

As noted in yesterday's comment, good growth and above target inflation suggest there is no urgency for the Fed to ease. Additionally, I feel some voting members may be inclined to assert Fed independence by holding steady in the face of considerable White House pressure to cut rates.

That being said, while Fed independence signalling is a bit of a wildcard for the upcoming meeting, policymakers are generally disinclined to intentionally surprise the market. Recent FedSpeak has tilted dovish, so there hasn't been any concerted effort to trim market expectations for a cut.

The market remains quite optimistic about a September rate cut, but I see it more as a 50/50 proposition at this point. We'll see another payrolls report next week and additional inflation data ahead of the September FOMC meeting. It would take a bad August NFP report and/or a significant tempering of inflation to drag me into the consensus camp.

With inflation still elevated, consumer confidence ebbing, and a weak Chicago PMI print, the stock market is under pressure on the last trading day of August amid heightened risk-off sentiment.

The dollar index has fallen more than 2% in August, although price action has been confined to the range established in July.

Trade Balance widened to a -$103.6 bln deficit in July, outside expectations of -$90.2 bln, versus a revised -$84.9 bln in June (was -$86.0 bln).

Personal Income rose 0.4% in July on expectations of +0.5%, versus +0.3% in June. PCE rose 0.5%, in line with expectations, versus a revised +0.4% in Jube (was +0.3%). Headline PCE inflation rose 0.2% m/m, leaving the annualized rate unchanged at 2.6%. Core inflation rose 0.3%, leading to an uptick in the annualized rate from 2.8% to 2.9%.

Chicago PMI fell to 45.0 in August, below expectations of 46.0, versus 47.1 in July.

Michigan Sentiment Index (final) was revised down to a three-month low of 58.2 for August, versus a preliminary print of 58.6 and 61.7 in July. Inflation expectations were revised down to 3.5% (was 3.9%) versus 3.4% in July.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$11.61 (-0.34%)
5-Day Change: +$43.89 (+1.30%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,474.08 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +35.15

Gold advanced to a ten-week high on the last trading day of August, buoyed by persistent expectations of a September rate cut, a weaker dollar, and an uptick in risk aversion. While the range remains intact, the yellow metal is poised for a second straight higher weekly close and the strongest monthly close since April, when the all-time high was set.

The breach of resistance at $3,435.01 (23-Jul high) prompted a challenge of the 16-Jun high at $3,449.13, the last significant barrier ahead of the all-time high from 22-Apr at $3,500. While we may still see some profit-taking ahead of the holiday weekend, this week's gains are consistent with expectations for a range breakout to the upside as the summer doldrums wind down.

While multi-week highs may keep jewelry demand subdued, Indian jewelers are starting to stock up ahead of the festival season. Demand tends to increase in advance of Diwali and the Indian wedding season, contributing to increased volatility.

Fresh record highs would bolster confidence in the previously established $3,601.42 Fibonacci objective. A measuring objective off the symmetrical triangle breakout suggests potential to $3,743.

I still like the $4,000 target as well, although in light of the prolonged consolidation this summer, getting there this year now seems unlikely. We could see $4,000 gold in Q1'26 as dedollarization continues, central banks continue to increase their holdings, and investor interest increases.

On the downside, the earlier U.S. low at $3,411.30 now protects the more important $3,403.42/$3,400.00 level. The market has pulled away nicely from the 20- and 50-day moving averages, which are now well protected at $3,368.25 and $3,349.64, respectively.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.213 (-0.55%)
5-Day Change: +$0.041 (+0.11%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $39.517
52-Week Range: $27.732 - $39.517
Weighted Alpha: +37.08

Silver has surged to new 14-year highs to move within striking distance of $40. The white metal is on track for a second straight higher weekly close and a fourth consecutive winning month.



Beyond $40, there's a Fibonacci objective at $40.396 and an important retracement level at $41.610 that corresponds closely with a measuring objective off the triangle breakout.

An eventual breach of $41.610 would mean $50 is very much in play. Robust demand and an impending sixth straight year of a structural supply deficit in 2026 bode well for the bullish scenario.

Former resistance at $39.517 now defines initial support. Below that, intraday levels at $39.127/123 protect the $39.00 zone.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.