Morning Call
Friday, December 8, 2023
In retrospect, gold and silver bulls should be disappointed/discouraged by the lack of bullish response to what has been a consistently falling implied US treasury yields but that support has been aggressively countered by residual signs of strength in the dollar.
Yesterday the laser focus on the prospect of a US rate cut early next year was lost again as cumulatively this week's jobs reports have signaled slowing.
Perhaps the trade is waiting for ultimate confirmation of slowing from the most important jobs report of the cycle, the nonfarm payroll report on Friday...[MORE]
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Dec 7 (Reuters) - Gold prices climbed on Thursday, buoyed by a weakness in the dollar and Treasury yields, with investors awaiting crucial U.S. payrolls data that could help ascertain the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory.
Spot gold rose 0.4% to $2,032.90 per ounce by 1155 GMT. U.S. gold futures gained 0.1% to $2,050.20...[LINK]
Gold prices rallied overnight as bulls took advantage of the lull in the dollar. Although interest rates were up marginally overnight the bull camp was spurred on by continued hopes of a rate cut.
Bulls will be watching this morning's ADP data for evidence of further weakness in the US economy that might warrant Fed dovishness.
The Perth Mint reported that gold sales jumped 26.52%, to 53,520oz this month, as the demand for physical bullion surged...[MORE]
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Dec 6 (Reuters) - Gold prices inched higher on Wednesday buoyed by lower bond yields, while investors awaited for a crucial U.S. employment report that could set the tone for Federal Reserve's policy meeting next week.
Spot gold rose 0.2% to $2,023.62 per ounce by 1247 GMT. U.S. gold futures gained 0.3% to $2,041.60...[LINK]
Volatility is likely to continue in gold and silver as the trade continues to waffle back and forth from the ebb and flow of potential central bank policy bias changes.
In fact, today's US scheduled data window will likely add or subtract to the first quarter rate cut assumption (generally held by the trade), but we give the edge to the dollar bears/gold bulls from the potential for a softening US economy take away through this morning's US reports.
We must note the lack of a flight to quality surge in gold overnight following Moody's downgrade of Chinese credit especially with a lack of gold buying following a noted uptick in Chinese credit default swap rates...[MORE]
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Dec 5 (Reuters) - Gold prices edged lower on Tuesday, trading $100 below the record high level hit in the last session, as the dollar held firm and investors awaited more U.S. economic data this week that could influence the Federal Reserve's rate outlook.
Spot gold was down 0.3% at $2,024.30 per ounce by 1200 GMT. Bullion had climbed to an all-time high of $2,135.40 on Monday, before dropping more than $100 in a single day to close 2% lower...[LINK]
While the February gold contract exploded to all-time highs overnight the market recoiled aggressively and at times this morning gold was trading $79 off its high!
With the dollar showing early strength and US treasuries showing slightly higher yields, the gold and silver markets obviously received buying from something other than their recent focus.
It appears the markets garnered flight to quality buying from two separate issues related to military events. Flight to quality issues thought to be lifting precious metal prices overnight were the ballistic missile attack of two Israeli ships and Chinese accusations that the US Navy "seriously violated" their sovereignty after sailing into the South China Sea...[MORE]
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Gold prices notched a new record on Monday for a second day in a row — with spot prices touching $2,100 as the global rush for bullion appears set to continue.
Gold prices are on course to hit fresh highs next year and could remain above $2,000 levels, analysts said, citing geopolitical uncertainty, a likely weaker U.S. dollar and possible interest rate cuts...[LINK]