Blog posts tagged with 'platinum'

Gold hits $3,000, silver trades with a 34-handle for the first time since October 

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Markets remain on edge as global trade tensions escalate. Uncertainty reigns amid threats of new levies, counter-threats of retaliation, and tariffs on one day and off the next. “I’m not going to bend at all,” Trump said.

Mounting risk aversion drove the S&P 500 into correction territory on Thursday. The other major indexes are hovering near the correction threshold as well.

Indications this week that inflation cooled in February did little to relieve market angst. Inflation expectations continue to surge as tariffs kick in. The preliminary one and five-year inflation expectation components of Michigan Sentiment rose to 4.9% and 3.9%.

Meanwhile, consumer sentiment and employment expectations continue to erode. The preliminary read on March consumer sentiment plunged 6.8 points to a 28-month low of 57.9.

The Fed is expected to hold steady when they announce policy next week. Amid heightened inflation worries, a June cut is no longer fully priced in. Fed funds futures are now only projecting 67 bps in cuts by year end.

Germany Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz announced a deal had been reached with the Green Party that likely clears the way for massive proposed defense and infrastructure spending. "Germany is back," said Merz.

China's policymakers will hold a news conference on Monday, presumably to announce new measures to boost domestic consumption. Chinese shares rebounded on hopes for additional stimulus.

Russian President Putin laid out his conditions for a ceasefire with Ukraine after dismissing the U.S.-brokered deal yesterday. “We agree with the proposal to cease hostilities but we have to bear in mind that this ceasefire must be aimed at a long-lasting peace and it must look at the root causes of the crisis,” said Putin.

Many of the Russian conditions are likely unacceptable to Ukraine and perhaps the U.S. as well. At least, negotiations are ongoing.

Michigan Sentiment (preliminary) fell 6.8 points in March to a 28-month low of 57.9, below expectations of 63.0 versus 64.7 in February. It was the third consecutive monthly decline. One-year inflation expectations surged to 4.9% from 4.3% previously. Five-year inflation expectations reached 3.9% versus 3.3% in February.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: +$4.68 (+0.16%)
5-Day Change: +$70.88 (+2.43%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,003.05
52-Week Range: $2,146.66 - $3,003.05
Weighted Alpha: +38.51

Gold extended to the upside on Friday to satisfy the $3,000 objective, buoyed by ongoing haven interest and a soft dollar. While the yellow metal has backed off the new record high at $3,003.05, a second consecutive higher weekly close appears likely.



The next Fibonacci objective is at $3,029.67. A measuring objective off the recent corrective phase highlights $3,049.34. The market is already talking about $3,500 as everyone adjusts expectations higher.

Chinese gold ETFs saw record inflows in February, rising 21 tonnes to 131 tonnes. The PBoC was also a buyer in February, adding 5 tonnes to reserves. It was the fourth straight month of purchases since the central bank's gold buying pause ended in November.

Goldman Sachs believes U.S. policy uncertainty will support investor demand for gold, and I'm anticipating solid ETF inflows this week. GS also expects that central bank buying "will remain structurally higher," creating upside risk to their $3,100 year-end forecast.

Record-high gold prices continue to weigh on jewelry demand. Reuters reported that Indian jewelers were offering discounts up to $39, the biggest in nearly eight months. India's gold imports plunged 85% y/y to 20-year lows in February, and demand appears destined to remain weak in March.

The former all-time high at $2,955.40 marks the first significant level of support. A minor intraday chart point from Thursday at $2,968.06/67.98 provides an intervening barrier.

Silver traded with a 34-handle in early U.S. trading, a level not seen since late October. The white metal is garnering support from news that the Greens won't oppose Germany's spending blitz and hopes that additional stimulus measures will be announced by China on Monday.



Fresh record highs in gold and ongoing weakness in the dollar are providing an additional boost. Silver is up more than 17% YTD and nearly 36% from a year ago.

Suddenly, the more than 22-year high set last year at $34.853 (22-Oct) is back in the market's sights. A minor intervening resistance is noted at $34.517 (30-Oct high).

A minor intraday chart point from Thursday at $33.396/394 bolsters former resistance now support at $33.340. Below the latter, the $33.000/$32.961 level stands in front of the 20-day MA at $32.462.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

3/12/2025

Gold rises to two-week highs as silver pressures the February high

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: The U.S. and Ukrainian negotiators have reached agreement on a proposal that includes a temporary ceasefire and plans to enter into immediate negotiations with Moscow to end the war. The ball is now in Russia's court, said U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

The U.S. has launched sweeping tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. The EU and Canada were quick to retaliate with levies of their own.

President Trump walked back his threat of even higher tariffs on Canada after Ontario temporarily suspended its plan to impose a 25% surcharge on electricity provided to several northern states. Ontario Premier Doug Ford and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick have agreed to talks.

U.S. consumer inflation slowed in February, helped by a 1% decline in gasoline prices. Core inflation dropped to a near four-year low of 3.1% y/y.

Attention now turns to tomorrow's PPI release. The market will be looking for confirmation of cooling inflation.

There is a realization that the February inflation data does not reflect tariffs that went into effect in early March. Dovish Fed expectations actually moderated somewhat as the latest trade tensions overshadowed the CPI undershoot.

The Fed is expected to remain on hold when the FOMC meets next week. Fed funds futures continue to suggest the next rate cut will come in June.

The Bank of Canada lowered its policy rate today by 25 bps to 2.75%. "Heightened trade tensions and tariffs imposed by the United States will likely slow the pace of economic activity and increase inflationary pressures in Canada," warned the BoC.

The House passed a continuing resolution to fund the government through September. The GOP is going to need some support from democrats to get the measure to the Senate floor.

MBA Mortgage Applications rose 11.2% in the 7-Mar week after a 20.4% gain in the previous week. 30-year mortgage rates edged lower by 4 bps to 6.67% from 6.73% in the previous week.

CPI rose 0.2% in February, below expectations of +0.3%, versus +0.5% in January; +2.8% y/y, versus +3.0% in January. Core +0.2% on expectations of +0.3%, versus +0.4% in January; +3.1% y/y, versus +3.3% in January.  


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: -$1.44 (-0.05%)
5-Day Change: -$0.69 (-0.02%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $2,955.40
52-Week Range: $2,146.66 - $2,955.40
Weighted Alpha: +34.45

Gold is on the bid at two-week highs. The yellow metal is being buoyed by rising trade tensions and an undershoot on U.S. consumer inflation that keeps the dollar on the defensive.



More than 78.6% of the recent corrective phase has now been retraced, returning focus to the all-time high at $2,955.40. New record highs would bode well for the long-awaited attainment of the $3,000 objective.

The Perth Mint reported a 35% m/m increase in gold coins and minted bar sales in February to 25,103 ounces. However, sales are down 47% from a year ago. "It is heartening to see the increase in sales on January levels given precious metals prices remain at record highs," said Neil Vance, Perth Mint's general manager of minted products.

Former resistance at $2,929.17/26.75 now marks first support and stands in front of the intraday low at $2,910.24. The latter corresponds closely with the 20-day moving average today.

Silver continues to outperform and has moved convincingly above $33 for the first time in three weeks. The long-awaited close above $33 appears to be in the offing.



The white metal has benefitted from rising trade tensions, Germany's planned spending bazooka, and expectations of further Chinese stimulus. Strength in gold and copper has also provided solid underpinnings to the silver markets.

Copper prices surged to nine-month highs on worries that it's the next metal in the Trump administration's crosshairs. Nearly half of U.S. copper needs are satisfied by imports. 

A breach of the $33.340 high from 14-Feb would bode well for a retest of the more than 22-year high at $34.853 (22-Oct'24). An additional intervening barrier is noted at $33.554 (78.6% retracement of the decline from $34.853 to $28.783).

First support is $33.00/$32.954 and will be important on a close basis. The overseas low at $32.728 provides a solid barrier ahead of the 20-day MA at $32.308.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver rebound from Monday's weakness

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Risk aversion remains elevated after stocks extended losses on Monday. While shares have stabilized somewhat today, ongoing uncertainty about tariffs and the impact of significant government downsizing continue to weigh on market sentiment.

Federal government employment declined by 10k in February, according to the nonfarm payrolls report that came out on Friday. However, the reality of the Trump administration's efforts to cut the size of government has yet to be fully reflected in the data.

There are many private sector companies reliant on government contracts and workers that have or will be rethinking their staffing needs. Certainly, service providers in the DC area will be considering cuts to headcount. 

President Trump recently warned there would be a "period of transition," which many have translated to mean "recession." As private sector hiring slows, absorbing former government workers in the private workforce will be increasingly challenging. 

President Trump said that he will double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum imports to 50% in response to Ontario's 25% price hike on electricity exported to a handful of northern states. Trade tensions continue to escalate.

Trade war concerns and increasingly dovish Fed expectations continue to weigh on the dollar. The dollar index has fallen to five-month lows.  

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 2.1 points to 100.7 in February, below expectations of 101.0, versus 102.8 in January. It was the second straight monthly decline but the fourth consecutive month above the 51-year average of 98. "Uncertainty is high and rising on Main Street," warned NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg.

JOLTS Job Opening rebounded 232k to 7,740k in January, above expectations of 7,630k, versus a downward revised 7,508k in December. Quits surged 171k to 3,266k.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: +$23.69 (+0.82%)
5-Day Change: +$49.46 (+1.73%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $2,955.40
52-Week Range: $2,146.66 - $2,955.40
Weighted Alpha: +33.33

Gold has recovered from yesterday's setback, buoyed by rising trade tensions and a weaker dollar. The yellow metal set a new high for the week, leaving last week's high at $2,929.17 vulnerable to a retest.



Today's rebound comes despite yesterday's close below the 20-day MA and the $2,900 level, which suggested short-term vulnerability. However, Trump's threat of a retaliatory tariff increase on Canada seems to have stoked haven interest once again.

Additionally, Fed funds futures now imply 82 bps in cuts by year end, even though a cut at this month's FOMC meeting still appears to be off the table. Lower interest rates increase the appeal of non-yielding gold.

The market will get February readings on consumer inflation tomorrow and producer inflation on Thursday. Signs of waning inflationary pressure could pull expectations for the next rate cut forward and provide a boost for gold.

If inflation comes in hotter than expected, it will temper dovish sentiment. However, worries about stagflation will intensify and perhaps provide a lift to gold's haven appeal.

All in all, gold appears to be in a pretty favorable position despite my concerns about some bearish chart features that have emerged in recent weeks. The greatest downside risk may be deleveraging pressures if the stock market sells off further, but gold held up fairly well on Monday.

A breach of chart/Fibonacci resistance at $2,929.17/68 would bode well for a retest of the $2,955.40 record high from 24-Feb. Beyond the latter, $3,000 remains a valid upside target.

Yesterday's low at $2,882.53 reinforces the midpoint of last week's rally at $2,882.20 as a short-term level to watch.  The 61.8% retracement level of the move from $2,835.23 to $2,929.17 comes in at $2,871.12.

Silver is outperforming today, surging to three-week highs above $32.750. The white metal is being buoyed by more dovish Fed expectations and a weaker dollar. Gold's resilience and strength in copper also offer support.

 

The bull camp has been encouraged recently by Germany's proposed defense and infrastructure spending blitz, as well as promises for more stimulus from China. This is all helping to highlight the underlying bullish supply/demand dynamics of the silver market.

Silver has traded above $33.00 several times since mid-February but has yet to register a close with a 33-handle. Such a close would bolster confidence in this year's uptrend, but the $33.340 high from 14-Feb must be negated to clear the way for a retest of the more than 22-year high at $34.853 (22-Oct'24).

Today's U.S. session low at $32.456 marks initial support and protects the 20-day MA at $32.249. Today's overseas low at $31.872 is now the important short-term level to watch.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver easier but poised for weekly gains after benign NFP print 

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: February nonfarm payrolls missed expectations, but the print was not as bad as some had feared after a weak ADP print and a surge in Challenger layoffs. I classify the NFP report as benign.

Payrolls rose by 151k on expectations of +160k. Net back-month revisions were -2k. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1% from 4.0% in January.

White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett was encouraged by the solid 10k increase in manufacturing jobs in February, most of which are well-paying auto sector jobs. He sees President Trump's policy resulting in "a massive amount of onshoring," including more than $1.5 trillion in commitments for new factories.

Earlier in the week, Treasury Secretary Bessent acknowledged signs of economic weakening. "There’s going to be a natural adjustment as we move away from public spending to private spending,” warned Bessent on CNBC. "We’ve become addicted to this government spending, and there’s going to be a detox period,” he added.

On the trade front, on-again/off-again tariffs are stoking market uncertainty. Weeks of erratic policy are making business planning difficult, and risk-off sentiment prevails. Markets want clarity, and stocks are likely to remain vulnerable until that need is satisfied.

President Trump says he is considering even harsher sanctions and tariffs on Russia as a means to drive them to the negotiating table. "To Russia and Ukraine, get to the table right now, before it is too late," he wrote on TruthSocial.

The EU unexpectedly revised Q4 GDP to +0.2% from +0.1% initially. Despite the doubling, it's still half of the +0.4% Q3 print. The EU economy remains on the ropes, and Brussels is probably eagerly awaiting Germany's planned spending blitz.

German manufacturing orders plunged -7.0% in February. The spending bazooka can't come soon enough to revive Europe's largest economy. But it comes at the expense of an estimated 5 percentage point increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio over the next two years.

Even with the new debt, German debt levels will remain well below EU and global averages. However, Bund yields surged on Wednesday by the most since the months after the Berlin Wall fell, reaching their highest since October 2023. This seems to fly in the face of the fiscal sensibilities of the German citizenry.

Nonfarm Payrolls rose 151k in February, below expectations of +160k, versus a downward revised +125k in January (was +143k). The unemployment rate edged up to 4.1% from 4.0%. Hourly earnings rose 0.3%, versus +0.5% in January. The average workweek was steady at 34.1 hours.

Median expectations for Consumer Credit, out this afternoon, is +$14.0 bln.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: +$8.09 (+0.28%)
5-Day Change: +$49.46 (+1.73%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $2,955.40
52-Week Range: $2,146.66 - $2,955.40
Weighted Alpha: +33.33

Gold is consolidating above $2,900 following a benign jobs report. While price action has been confined to last week's range, the yellow metal is poised for a higher weekly close. It would be the ninth higher weekly close of the last ten.

 

Trade uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, more dovish Fed expectations, and dollar weakness continue to provide support. However, the long side of gold remains a crowded trade, suggesting scope for a more protracted correction. A vulnerable stock market poses risks for another bout of deleveraging in gold.

Last week's weekly key reversal (higher high, lower low, close below the previous week's low) and bearish divergences remain troubling technical features. A breach of last week's record high at $2,955.50 is needed to ease my concerns and put the yellow metal back on track for attainment of the $3,000 objective.

The new high for the week today at $2,929.17 is encouraging, but Fibonacci resistance at $2,929.68 (78.6% retrace of the decline from $2,955.40 to $2,835.23) remains intact.

Incrementum AG reported that "Comex gold deliveries skyrocketed to the highest level ever recorded, even surpassing the levels seen during the COVID-19 panic."

Moderating lease rates and a smaller contango suggest market dislocation is ebbing, but the relocation of gold and silver continues. Speculation persists about the "real" reason for massive inflows to the U.S., beyond tariff front running and the simple arb opportunity.

The 20-day MA comes in at $2,911.68 today. I'd like to see a close above this level. Thursday's low at $2,893.31 protects Tuesday's more important low at $2,883.58.

Silver is under modest pressure after setting a two-week high at $32.750 on Thursday. The white metal is poised for a solid weekly gain of around 4%. Silver has notched only two lower weekly closes since the beginning of the year.



The 20-day moving average comes in at $32.191 today and has effectively contained the downside. A retreat below secondary support at $32.002/$31.809 would dishearten the bull camp yet again and could lead to another go at the 100- and 50-day MAs at $31.316/201.

The elusive close above $33 is needed to add credence to the bullish scenario that calls for a retest of October's cycle high at $34.853. This week's high at $32.750 and February's high at $33.340 provide solid intervening barriers.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.