Blog posts tagged with 'precious metals'

Gold extends to the downside as solid earnings and trade optimism sap the haven bid

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Risk appetite remains robust despite yesterday's weak advance Q1 GDP print. Amid generally strong corporate earnings, there is a growing belief that growth weakness in the first three months of the year was a one-off event associated with tariff front-running.

Thus far, the blended year-over-year earnings growth rate of the S&P 500 is 10.1%. That's above the 10-year average, and analysts remain optimistic about the whole year despite the intensified trade uncertainty that began early in Q2.

Three Senate Republicans joined Democrats in an attempt to thwart President Trump's tariff agenda by ending the "national emergency." They failed, but only after VP Vance broke a tie in favor of the White House.

Markets remain optimistic about trade deals that are in the works with some of America's key trading partners. There even seems to be some movement with China. "The U.S. has proactively reached out to China through multiple channels, hoping to hold discussions on the tariff issue," according to a Weibo post linked to Chinese state media.

"They sell us about five times more than we sell them. So their factories are closing down as we speak," said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. He reinforces a point that I've been making since the trade war kicked off: China needs access to our consumers more than we need access to theirs.

Massive numbers of idle workers in China create potential for political unrest. That's the last thing the CCP wants.

Bessent went on to point out that orders for the upcoming holidays are typically placed around this time. "If those orders aren't placed, it could be devastating for the Chinese," he said.

The U.S. is pushing for a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine to allow for progress toward a lasting peace. "We had 22 concrete terms that (Ukraine) agreed to. What they want... and what they have is a very comprehensive and permanent ceasefire that leads to a peace treaty. When I mean comprehensive, sea, air, land infrastructure for at least 30 days... It could build to an important peace initiative," said U.S. Special Envoy Keith Kellogg.

The U.S. and Ukraine signed a deal that grants America access to Ukraine’s vast strategic resources. The agreement is important to the U.S., as many rare earth minerals were previously imported from China.

While the deal does not include any specific security guarantee, it behooves the U.S. to protect those resources.  “This agreement signals clearly to Russia that the Trump administration is committed to a peace process centered on a free, sovereign, and prosperous Ukraine over the long term,” said Treasury Secretary Bessent.

Challenger Layoffs tumbled 62% to 105.4k in April, well below analyst expectations, versus 275.2k in March.  “Though the Government cuts are front and center, we saw job cuts across sectors last month. Generally, companies are citing the economy and new technology. Employers are slow to hire and limiting hiring plans as they wait and see what will happen with trade, supply chain, and consumer spending,” Andrew Challenger.

Initial Jobless Claims rose 16k to 241k in the week ended 26-Apr, above expectations of 225k, versus a revised  223k in the previous week. Continuing claims rose 83k to 1,916k in the 19-Apr week from 1,833k in the previous week.

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was revised down to 50.2 in the final April print, versus a preliminary read of 50.7, and unchanged from 50.2 in March. "Manufacturing continued to flat-line in April amid worrying downside risks to the outlook and sharply rising costs," said S&P Global.

Manufacturing ISM fell to a five-month low of 48.7 in April, above expectations of 47.8, versus 49.0 in March. Prices rose to 69.8 from 69.4 in March.

Construction Spending fell 0.5% in March, below expectations of +0.3%, versus a revised +0.6% in February (was +0.7%).


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: -$66.96 (-2.04%)
5-Day Change: -$137.58 (-4.11%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,285.07 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +41.85

Gold remains in corrective mode as heightened optimism on trade, robust corporate earnings, and perhaps a glimmer of hope for a ceasefire and ultimately peace in Ukraine sap the haven bid. The dollar index also rebounded to a three-week high, applying additional pressure to the yellow metal.



I also think speculative sellers took advantage of thin market conditions with parts of Asia and most of Europe closed for May Day/Labor Day holidays. There is scope to see at least some of these losses retraced.

While gold has retreated nearly $300 from the record high set just last week around $3,500, the yellow metal posted a 5.3% monthly gain for April. It was the fourth straight monthly gain of the year. It's worth noting again that gold hasn't seen more than two consecutive monthly losses in over two years.

Recent commentary suggested the breach of support at $3,269.62/65.55 would set up a test of the 20-day MA and the $3,200 zone. We can consider those corrective objectives satisfied, but a close below the 20-day at $3,241.80 would leave the downside vulnerable.

Trades below $3,200 would shift focus to Fibonacci support at $3,165.84 (61.8% of the rally from $2,961.83 to $3,495.89). Below that, the rising 50-day MA comes in at $3,087.73 and corresponds closely with the 78.6% Fibonacci level.

Former support at $3,265.55/69.62 now defines resistance. The halfway back point of the decline now comes in at $3,340.50 with an important chart point at $3,366.18 (25-Apr high). This area must be cleared to return confidence to the underlying uptrend.

I do think recent losses are indeed corrective. Billionaire John Paulson agrees, predicting "high $4,000 range" within three years. "As central banks and people look to put their money in a more stable source... I think gold will increase its position in the world," he said.

Silver fell to a three-week low, weighed by losses in gold and a stronger dollar. However, trade optimism provides some underpinning, and the white metal is already back above the midpoint of today's range and the 20-day moving average.



Important support at $31.715/711 marked by an important retracement level and the 100-day MA successfully contained the downside, but further losses can not be ruled out. A breach of $31.715/711 would bode well for a challenge of $31.110/086, where the halfway back point of the April rally corresponds with the 200-day MA.

Short-term action in silver is likely to be volatile as trade negotiations and gold's correction play out. A move back above $33 would ease pressure on the downside, but last week's high at $33.662 provides a significant barrier ahead of key highs from March and October at $34.543 and $34.853


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold continues to consolidate above short-term support

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: The first look at U.S. Q1 GDP came in weaker than expected, but not nearly as bad as the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicted (see yesterday's comment). Growth in the first three months of the year contracted by 0.3%, the first negative print since Q1 2022.

As expected, tariff front-running weighed significantly on growth. Imports jumped 41.3% in Q1, resulting in a huge $321.7 bln draw on net exports.

While the tariff situation remains fluid, the front-running is probably behind us, so it is likely that growth will rebound in Q2. Subsequent adjustments to Q1 could still result in positive growth.

Inflation indications within the GDP report were hotter than expected, but more important PCE inflation cooled to 2.3% in March, from 2.7% in February. The combination of weaker growth and some improvement in the Fed's preferred inflation measure casts a more dovish light heading into next week's FOMC meeting.

The Fed is still expected to hold steady in May, but prospects for a 25 bps cut in June edged up to 63.8% from 59.8% yesterday and 55.5% a week ago. The implied rate for year-end is 3.3875%, favoring just under 100 bps in easing.

Ukrainian sources say they expect to sign a deal with the U.S. to provide access to strategic minerals in exchange for ongoing military support. It's unclear at this point how the deal might impact progress toward a peace deal between Kyiv and Moscow.

MBA Mortgage Applications fell 4.2% in the week ended 25-Apr, following a 12.7% decline in the previous week. It was, in fact, the third straight weekly decline. The 30-year mortgage rate ticked down to 6.89% from a 9-week high of 6.90% in the previous week.

ADP Employment Survey showed a private payrolls increase of 62k in April, below expectations of 124k, versus a revised 147k in March (was 155k). The takeaway is a slight downside risk to Friday's NFP report.

Q1 GDP (advance) tumbled to -0.3%, below expectations of +0.4%, versus +2.4% in Q4'24. The chain price index jumped to 3.7%, above expectations of 3.1%, versus 2.3% in Q4.

Civilian ECI was steady at 0.9% in Q1, in line with expectations, versus +0.9% in Q4. Annualized ECI moderated to +3.6% from +3.8% in Q4.

Personal Income rose 0.1% in March, below expectations of 0.4%, versus 0.8% in February. 

PCE rose 0.6% in March, in line with expectations, versus +0.4% in February. The chain price index rose 0.1%, resulting in a 2.3% annualized rate, down from 2.7% in February.

Chicago PMI fell 3.0 points to 44.6 in April, below expectations of 45.5, versus 47.6 in March.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: -$44.97 (-1.36%)
5-Day Change: +$8.10 (+0.25%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,281.97 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +47.15

Gold remains defensive at the low end of the recent range, weighed by recent improvements in risk appetite and signs of moderating inflation. However, the downside is being limited by ongoing uncertainty on tariffs, a negative Q1 GDP print, heightened rate cut expectations, and a generally weak dollar.



The yellow metal is up nearly 6% in April, setting the stage for a fourth consecutive monthly gain. Gold is up nearly 27% year-to-date.

The World Goid Council reports that total demand reached a Q1 record of 1,206 tonnes, led by a resurgence in ETF inflows. "A sharp revival in gold ETF inflows fuelled a more-than-doubling of total investment demand to 552t (+170% y/y); its highest since Q1’22," according to the latest Gold Demand Trends report.

Central bank demand slowed to 244 tonnes from 365 tonnes in Q4'24, but was "comfortably within the quarterly range of the last three years," according to the WGC.

Jewelry demand also slowed, weighed by record-high prices.

Despite tariff uncertainty in Q1, technology demand remained strong at 80.45 tonnes, down slightly from 82.88 tonnes in Q4. While the Trump administration ended up exempting gold, who knows if that might change?

Bar and coin demand moderated slightly to 325.4 tonnes, versus 325.99 tonnes in the previous quarter. Demand from Chinese investors was especially strong.

Meanwhile, total supply tightened by 7% q/q to 1,206 tonnes on softer mine production and weaker recycling as consumers held out for higher prices.

While gold eked out a new low for the week of $3,271.82, the support zone defined by the recent lows at $3,274.47/69.62/65.55 is further reinforced. Should this area give way, a downside extension to the 20-day MA at $3,247.44 and $3,200 would become likely.

Today's post-GDP high at $3,314.89 protects the Asian high at $3,323.15. These additional tiers of resistance now stand in front of the high for the week at $3,351.87. A breach of the halfway back point of last week's decline at $3,380.72 must still be negated to return confidence to the uptrend.

Silver fell to a nine-session low of $32.219 just before this morning's data showed the U.S. economy contracted in Q1. The white metal subsequently recovered into the range, but worries about weak global growth and demand destruction continue to worry the markets.

 

Heightened expectations that the Fed will resume easing this summer are keeping the dollar on defense. That, along with hopes for more Chinese stimulus, is helping to underpin silver.

Support noted in yesterday's comment at $32.134/125 was left unthreatened. The still-falling 20-day MA is at $32.115 today, and still reinforces this area.

The failure to sustain gains above $33 and truly challenge key highs above $34 is already worrying to the bull camp. A short-term retreat below $32 from here would pave the way for further downside retracement toward $31.110/070, where the halfway back point of the April rally corresponds with the 200-day MA.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold continues to consolidate last week's runup to $3,500, awaiting fresh inputs

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: The first 100 days of Trump 2.0 are being assessed, and as you might imagine, the grades vary wildly. President Trump delivered quickly on border security, but fulfilling economic and geopolitical pledges has proven more difficult.

A ceasefire in Gaza earlier in the year could not be sustained, and the war in Ukraine rages on. Russian President Putin unilaterally declared a 72-hour ceasefire to begin on 08-May, but a permanent ceasefire, and ultimately the peace deal Trump wants, remains elusive. That's keeping geopolitical tensions elevated.

On the trade front, on-again-off-again tariffs have stoked uncertainty and frayed long-standing relationships. While Trump's goal is to reduce the trade deficit, massive front-running of tariffs has actually had the opposite effect.

The advance trade balance for March just came out today, and it was a record -$162.0 bln. That print was well outside market expectations and exceeded the previous record from January by -$7.4 bln.

More recently, some degree of optimism has surfaced about a handful of key trade deals. While this has resulted in improved risk appetite, the erratic implementation of tariffs and ongoing uncertainty about how tariffs will impact inflation, growth, and monetary policy are keeping global markets on edge.

The surge in imports has the market anticipating that growth slowed sharply in Q1.  Advance Q1 GDP comes out tomorrow, and median expectations are +0.4%, versus +2.4% in Q4'24.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow has been painting a much grimmer picture since mid-quarter, with the latest reading for Q1 at -2.7%. This is attributed to the widening deficit and weaker consumer spending, but inputs have been volatile, so there are some expectations that GDPNow is overstating the contraction.

If Wednesday's Q1 GDP print is closer to GDPNow than market expectations, doubt about Trump's policies will intensify. Stocks are likely to suffer even if rate cut expectations grow. At this point, Fed funds futures continue to predict 100 bps in easing by year-end, with the first 25 bps cut likely in June or July.

In an interesting turn, Trump may have inadvertently helped the liberal party remain in power in Canada. The country had been supremely dissatisfied with the previous liberal government of Justin Trudeau, prompting him to resign in January. The liberal party made Mark Carney their leader, and he served as Prime Minister until a snap election could be held. 

Canada seemed poised for a resounding swing to the right. However, Trump's tariffs, demands for more military spending, and gibes about making Canada the 51st state swung the polls back to the left. The liberals appear to have won yesterday's election by a slim margin. Carney won a seat in the House of Commons and is expected to remain as PM.

Balance of Trade (advance) -$162.0 bln in March, outside expectations of -$143.0 bln, versus a revised -$147.8 bln (was -$147.9 bln). 

FHFA Home Price Index rose 0.1% in February to 437.3, versus a revised 436.7 in January (was 436.5). It was the twelfth straight monthly increase.

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (20-cities) rose 0.7% in February to 335.1, versus a revised 332.7 in January (was 332.6). The record high was set in July at 335.8. The annual pace of appreciation decelerated slightly to 4.5% from 4.7% y/y in January.

Consumer Confidence continued to erode in April, falling 7.9 points to 86.0. That's below expectations of 87.2, versus a positive revised 93.9 in March (was 92.9). It was the fifth consecutive monthly decline to the lowest print since April 2020.

JOLTS Job Openings declined 288k in March to 7,192k, below expectations of 7,480k, versus a revised 7,748k in February (was 7,568k).


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: -$31.38 (-0.94%)
5-Day Change: -$74.15 (-2.19%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,281.97 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +47.80

Gold is trading lower within Monday's range, which was within Friday's range. The yellow metal appears to be consolidating last week's runup to $3,500 and awaiting new economic data and fresh info on tariffs.


 
If tomorrow's advance Q1 GDP print undershoots market expectations by a wide margin, haven interest in gold would reignite. However, be aware of the potential for another bout of deleveraging pressure if stocks tank.

Such a move would be seen as a buying opportunity, but the recent lows at $3,274.4, $3,269.62, and $3,265.55 are not secure yet. A test of the $3,200 zone would have to be considered.

Ongoing weakness in the dollar provides some underpinning for gold, and a weak GDP print would spark more dovish Fed expectations. Hotter than expected PCE inflation could see rate cut expectations trimmed somewhat, but probably not significantly.

A short-term rebound above the halfway back point of last week's decline at $3,380.72 would return a measure of confidence to the uptrend. Yesterday's high at $3,351.87 and Friday's high at $3,366.18 provide intervening barriers.

Silver set new highs for the week in early U.S. trading, but last week's highs at $33.662/655 remain well protected. A weak dollar and expectations of further Chinese stimulus provide some support, but the market is waiting for U.S. growth and inflation data before it takes a run at the key highs above $34.



Some significant breakthrough on the trade front, and perhaps specifically with China, is probably needed to truly set silver free. If that happens, the cycle high from last October at $34.853 would likely be exceeded.

A convincing move above an important Fibonacci level at $35.217 would shift focus to $37.430 initially, but $40 would look pretty attractive at that point.

On the downside, yesterday's low at $32.696 and the 50-day moving average at $32.651 protect more important support at 32.188/134/125, where the 20-day moving average and a couple of recent lows converge.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold is trading within Friday's range, awaiting fresh tariff and economic news

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Market angst is in retreat amid hints of progress on the trade front, underpinning risk appetite. China reportedly removed tariffs on some U.S. goods last week. “I’ve made 200 deals,” President Trump told Time Magazine.

That seems unlikely, and no details were provided. Bloomberg estimates that cargo shipments have plummeted 60% since the U.S. slapped tariffs on China earlier in the month. Top retailers are now warning that we could start seeing empty shelves and higher prices in May.

I'm anticipating another week of mixed messages on trade, which will keep uncertainty elevated. There is also a host of earnings and important economic releases. April jobs data, PCE inflation, and Q1 advance GDP are all on tap.

The market is only expecting 0.4% GDP growth for Q1. Expectations for nonfarm payrolls are 130k, but there are some risks of an undershoot as tariff front-running ebbed in April.

Dallas Fed Index plunged 19.5 points to a 59-month low of -35.8 in April, versus -16.3 in March. "Perceptions of broader business conditions continued to worsen notably in April. The general business activity index fell 20 points to -35.8, its lowest reading since May 2020. The company outlook index also retreated to a postpandemic low of -28.3. The outlook uncertainty index pushed up 11 points to 47.1," according to the Dallas Fed.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: -$27.38 (-0.83%)
5-Day Change: -$131.12 (-3.83%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,281.97 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +46.91

Gold eked out its third straight higher weekly close, despite last week's rejection from $3,500. While de-escalation on trade was a contributing factor to the retreat, the yellow metal was also quite overbought and therefore vulnerable to correction.



Gold firmed in early U.S. trading on the grim Dallas Fed Index print, suggesting there is indeed still haven interest out there. A breach of the halfway back point of last week's decline at $3,380.72 would return a measure of confidence to the underlying uptrend. Friday's high at $3,366.18 provides an intervening barrier.

With those resistances intact, it's premature to suggest the corrective low is in at Wednesday's low of $3,265.55. That level is fortified by subsequent lows at $3,269.62 and $3,274.47.

Global ETFs saw net inflows of 15.4 tonnes. It was the 13th straight week of net inflows.

Given last week's volatility, perhaps it's not surprising to see North American investors on hold. European investors recorded outflows of 8.8 tonnes. However, Asian investors picked up the slack, inspired by the lower price of gold and a weak dollar.

The COT report showed that net speculative long positions fell 26.8k last week to a more than one-year low of 175.4k contracts, versus 202.k in the previous week. It was the fifth consecutive weekly decline.

Silver notched a third straight higher weekly close last week. Friday saw the first daily close above $33 since 02-Apr.



With more than 78.6% of the decline from the late-March high at $34.543 now retraced, a fair amount of confidence has been returned to the uptrend. However, volatility in silver has been high this year, and wild gyrations on tariff news may well continue.

Friday's setback was extended in Asian trading, but the 50-day moving average successfully contained the downside. This leaves more important support at 32.134/125 protected, a level that is bolstered by the 20-day moving average at $32.215.

On the upside, a close back above $33 today would bode well for another run at last week's highs at $33.662/655. Above the latter, potential to the March high at $34.543 and the cycle high from October at $34.853 would be confirmed.

The latest COT report showed net speculative long positions rebounded 0.8k last week to 44.7k contracts, versus 43.9k in the previous week. Recent volatility is probably keeping the spec sidelined.

CFTC Silver speculative net positions

Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold consolidates recent losses on heightened geopolitical risk

I'm writing today from the bourse floor at the CSNS show in Schaumburg, booth 1404. We've got coffee! Stop by for a cup.

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Russia conducted a large missile and drone strike against the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv. The attack comes as the U.S. is trying to broker a peace deal, and prompted President Trump to demand that Putin "STOP."

“I am not happy with the Russian strikes on KYIV. Not necessary, and very bad timing. Vladimir, STOP! 5000 soldiers a week are dying. Lets get the Peace Deal DONE!” Trump wrote on TruthSocial.

The escalation of geopolitical tensions had a limited impact on risk appetite, with markets remaining optimistic about ongoing trade negotiations. Meanwhile, a dozen U.S. states have sued the Trump administration seeking a court order declaring that tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act are illegal.

Durable Orders surged 9.2% in March, well above expectations of +2.0%, versus +0.9% in February. Ex-trans was unch on expectations of +0.3%, versus +0.7% in February.

Initial Jobless Claims rose 6k to 222k in the week ended 19-Apr, in line with expectations, versus 216k in the previous week. Continuing claims fell 37k to 1,841k.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell 0.27 points to -0.03 in March from 0.24 in February.

Existing Home Sales fell 5.59% to 4.02M in March, below expectations of 4.13M, versus 4.27M in February.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: +$40.91 (+1.24%)
5-Day Change: +$7.89 (+0.24%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,281.97 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +48.02

Gold is consolidating within yesterday's range, buoyed by heightened geopolitical tensions. Despite the sharp sell-off from $3,500 earlier in the week, the yellow metal is clinging to a weekly gain.



Today's Asian high at $3,362.22 protects the halfway back point of this week's decline at $3,380.72. Penetration of the latter would bode well for renewed tests above $3,400.

On the downside, the Asian low at  $3,288.35 stands in front of yesterday's low at $3,265.55. Fresh lows for the week would signal additional downside potential to the $3,200 zone.   

Silver is consolidating at the high end of yesterday's range. The white metal jumped to a three-week high of $33.655 on Wednesday, and the ability of silver to sustain gains above $33 is seen as encouraging to the bull camp.



With more than 78.6% of the entire decline off the late-March high at $34.543 now retraced, that level, both $34.543 and the 22-year high from October at $34.853, are considered in play. However, upside prospects remain very much contingent on ongoing progress on trade negotiations.

A retreat below $33 would put the bullish scenario back on pause, favoring a return to the 20- and 50-day moving averages around $32.00 would become likely.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold continues to correct as trade optimism boosts risk appetite

I'm traveling today, so I'll keep it brief. I hope to see some of you at the Central States Numismatic Society Show in Chicago this week. We'll be at booth 1404.

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Talk of de-escalating trade tensions with China and progressing trade talks with India and Japan is the kind of news markets were desperate for. U.S. stocks are higher amid improved risk appetite.

According to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, neither the U.S. nor China sees the current trade war as sustainable. President Trump is “setting the stage for a deal with China,” said Bessent on Tuesday, and de-escalation should happen in the "very near future."

The President also dialed down pressure on the Fed, saying he had "no intention of firing" Chairman Powell and never did. “I would like to see him be a little more active in terms of his idea to lower interest rates,” Trump said Tuesday evening.

The dollar index firmed on Tuesday, but gains stalled well shy of 100. The greenback is lower today, and the overall bias remains bearish after falling to a three-year low on Monday.

MBA Mortgage Applications fell 12.7% in the week ended 18-Apr as 30-year mortgage rates rose to a nine-week high of 6.90%.

S&P Flash Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.7 in April, above expectations of 49.1, versus 50.2 in March. 

S&P Flash Services PMI fell to 51.4 in April, below expectations of 52.5, versus 54.4 in March.

New Home Sales rose to 0.724M in March, above expectations of 0.686M, versus a revised 0.674M in February (was 0.676M).


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: -$51.37 (-1.52%)
5-Day Change: -$23.52 (-0.70%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,281.97 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +47.74

Gold peaked just shy of $3,500 on Tuesday after positive news on the trade front sparked profit taking. Follow-through losses today pushed the yellow metal to new lows for the week.



While gold is nearly $200 off yesterday's record high, I still see losses as corrective. The next level of support is marked by the 17-Apr low at $3,290.51.

The $3,210.36/$3,198.36 zone offers more substantial chart support and should correspond with the 20-day moving average over the next several sessions. An additional intervening barrier is noted at $3,229.84 (16-Apr low).

Ongoing weakness in the dollar is seen as a limiting factor on the downside for gold. The market will also be monitoring events on the trade front. I categorize recent trade optimism as 'fragile,' particularly with regard to China.

A climb back above $3,400 would return confidence to the dominant trend, which is still very clearly bullish. As noted yesterday, some sources show highs above $3,500. It seems likely that the market will want to return to that level to confirm.

Silver is probing above $33 again, underpinned by heightened optimism on trade and a soft dollar. Gains above $33 have been a struggle recently, but this time might be the charm.



A breach of the previous highs at 33.050/053 would clear the way for a challenge of the $33.264 Fibonacci level. Above the latter, the late-March high at $34.543 and the cycle high from October at $34.853 would be in play.

An intraday chart point at $32.782 should keep today's Asian low at $32.276 at bay. The 50- and 20-day moving averages continue to be significant with respect to the close.

A short-term close below the 20-day MA at $32.334 would set up a test of chart support at $32.134/125, but I would suggest potential at that point would be back to the 100-day MA at $31.613.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

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