Blog posts tagged with 'silver'

Gold and silver set new weekly highs, despite dimmed hopes for an H1 Fed rate cut

Outside Market Developments: U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose 130k in January, above expectations of +70k, versus a revised +48k in December (was +50k). The jobless rate ticked down to 4.3% from 4.4%.

Despite recent weak data and mounting concerns about job growth, January saw the largest increase in jobs in 13 months. Job gains were primarily driven by sectors such as health care, social assistance, and construction, while the federal government and financial activities saw declines.

Federal government employment fell by 34k in January, pushing the cumulative decline since the start of the Trump administration to roughly -325k jobs. The White House was quick to tout that federal jobs now represent their smallest share of the total workforce since 1966, framing the reductions as a successful "rightsizing" of the bureaucracy.

Total back-month revisions of -17k painted 2025 as an exceptionally weak year for job growth, averaging just +15k per month. Nonetheless, January's surprise beat has some of the more optimistic analysts believing the worst of the labor market slowdown is behind us.

Fed funds future sold off on the news, reflecting an even less dovish bias for H1, sapping risk appetite. The market is still anticipating about 50 bps of easing this year, with the first 25 bps cut unlikely before September.

More broadly, U.S. yields are higher today, though the dollar remained defensive following the news early in the week that China accelerated its long-term de-dollarization efforts by urging domestic banks to limit purchases and gradually reduce holdings of U.S. Treasuries.  The dollar index fell to new lows for the week, and almost exactly 61.8% of the recent rally has now been retraced.

President Trump hinted that he might deploy a second carrier group to the Middle East if ongoing negotiations with the Iranian regime falter. Israeli President Netanyahu is meeting with Trump in Washington today to push for any deal to include Iran's missile program and Iranian proxies. Although both sides have engaged in saber-rattling that has heightened regional tensions, diplomatic efforts continue to move forward.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$87.08 (+1.73%)
5-Day Change: +$84.85 (+1.71%)
YTD Range: $4,310.83 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $2,835.23 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +80.92

Gold set new two-week highs, buoyed by persistent safe-haven demand, firmer silver, and dollar weakness. The yellow metal is also displaying some resilience in the face of today's solid NFP print and dimmed hopes for an H1 Fed rate cut.



With gold holding above the 20-day MA and the midpoint of the recent broad range, I suspect bull camp optimism is on the rise. However, the scale of the recent volatility likely still gives them some hesitation.

Today's early U.S. high at $5,117.94 now provides an intervening barrier ahead of the 61.8% retracement level of the recent plunge at $5,141.08. Penetration of the latter would bode well for tests above $5,200 and would go a long way toward confirming the corrective low is in place at $4,406.69. The next Fibonacci level on the upside is at $5,340.72 (78.6%).

Today's Asian low at $5,024.35 stands in front of the midpoint of the range at $5,000.85. Secondary supports marked by the lows from the previous two days at $4,992.10 and $4,966.62 protect the rising 20-day MA at $4,938.07.

At this point, I wouldn't rule out risk for tests below $4,800. However, short-term dips within the range are likely to be viewed as buying opportunities, given the broadly supportive underlying fundamentals; persistent central bank buying, ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, de-dollarization trends, and expectations of lower real interest rates over the medium term.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$5.307 (+6.57%)
5-Day Change: -$5.157 (-5.85%)
YTD Range: $64.14 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +179.59

Silver firmed to reach new highs for the week, above $86 in early U.S. trading, helped by a weak dollar and strength in gold. While the white metal retreated into the intraday range after the jobs report, I'm impressed by the resilience and the relative calm so far this week. I joked with my colleagues yesterday that the daily range was shockingly less than $4!



As noted above, gold has retraced nearly 61.8% of the recent correction, but silver has completed just a 38.2% retracement. Gold's relative strength is reflected in the gold/silver ratio, which is nearly 40% off the late-January low of 43.57.

Today's robust jobs report underscored economic resilience while sharply diminishing prospects for imminent Fed rate cuts, elevating Treasury yields. Increased borrowing costs, in turn, pressure valuations for growth-focused technology stocks and increase the financial burden of substantial capital expenditures planned by numerous AI firms.

Silver is an important component in electronics and AI infrastructure. If higher borrowing costs throttle AI capex, it could pose a headwind for demand.

Despite the stunning magnitude of the recent plunge (nearly 50%, high to low), the underlying fundamentals remain supportive. Those include strong and growing industrial demand – particularly in solar photovoltaics, electric vehicles, electronics, and green energy applications – persistent supply deficits, investor buying as a monetary hedge, and its dual role as both a precious metal safe-haven and an industrial commodity.

Today's gains bode well for short-term tests back above $90. The next significant resistances are at $90.392 (05-Feb high), $92.186 (4-Feb high), and, perhaps most importantly, the convergence of the 20-day MA with the halfway back point of the entire decline at $92.380/885.

The $80.018/00 support zone will be bolstered by the rising 50-day MA by the end of the week, but the bulls shouldn't be lulled into a false sense of security by the diminished volatility. If we've learned anything over the past three weeks, it's that the silver market can let go with little to no warning, and it is an extraordinarily unforgiving market when it does.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold trades back above $5,000 on revived haven flows, weaker dollar

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Chinese regulators have reportedly warned the country's financial institutions, particularly major banks, to rein in their holdings of U.S. Treasuries, according to a Bloomberg article. Citing risks and market volatility, officials urged banks to limit new purchases of U.S. government bonds and instructed those with significant exposure to gradually pare their positions.

While the directive did not specifically mention China's official state holdings of Treasuries, that trend is already in progress. Official holdings of U.S. Treasuries peaked at $1.3167 trillion in November 2013 and have steadily declined ever since. The most recent TIC data for November 2025 revealed China's mainland holdings had fallen to $682.6 bln, the lowest since 2008 and nearly a 50% reduction from the 2013 high-water mark. TIC data for December is scheduled for release next week.

These latest developments are consistent with the ongoing de-dollarization trend, where some countries and central banks are strategically reducing their reliance on the U.S. dollar as the dominant global reserve currency, opting instead for gold, local currencies, and alternative payment systems. Geopolitical tensions, concerns over dollar weaponization through sanctions and tariffs, and U.S. political and fiscal uncertainties are fostering this trend.

It seems unlikely that the U.S. will slow its deficit spending, and amid doubts that other countries will step in to pick up China's slack, worries are mounting that the Fed will have to start growing its balance sheet again. Kevin Warsh, President Trump's pick to replace Jerome Powell at the helm of the Fed, is strongly in favor of reducing the balance sheet. 

Further clouding the picture is a pending SCOTUS ruling – possibly as soon as 20-Feb  – on the legality of Trump's tariffs. Some legal analysts and administration officials, like Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, suggest it's "very unlikely" the court overturns Trump's signature policy. However, prediction markets are currently estimating a 70-80% chance that the tariffs will be struck down.

Adding to the fog is the possibility of another partial government shutdown. A short-term stopgap funding measure for DHS/ICE is set to expire on Friday, and negotiations have apparently stalled.

The earlier partial government shutdown delayed the January jobs report until Wednesday. Weak labor market data last week created some downside risk for the NFP print. Consensus is +70k, with the jobless rate expected to hold steady at 4.4%.

January CPI data comes out on Friday. Median expectations favor a slight cooling of inflation. 


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$44.31 (+0.89%)
5-Day Change: +$405.09 (+8.69%)
YTD Range: $4,310.83 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $2,835.23 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +81.69

Gold has rebounded back above $5,000, amid revived haven demand and a retreat in the dollar. The yellow metal is shrugging off higher yields and focusing more on the weak dollar aspect of "sell America" sentiment.



Despite last week's sharp downside extension, gold was able to muster a higher weekly close and a close back above the 20-day moving average. Both events were viewed as encouraging to the underlying uptrend.

Today's upside follow-through puts gold back above the midpoint of the large $5,595.02/$4,406.69 range. Last week's high at $5,091.85 has been approached, but remains intact thus far. A breach of this level would shift focus to 61.8% retracement level of the late-Jan/early-Feb plunge at $5,141.08. Above that, $5,340.72 would be in play.

I still feel a period of consolidation within the recent range would more clearly define downside risk, allowing the bull camp to retest the upside more seriously. Ongoing high volatility in the silver market remains a wildcard, but gold's comparative resiliency, reflected in a rebound in the ratio to the 70 zone, is a good sign.

Not surprisingly, last week's downside extension shook a lot of investors out of the ETFs. Net outflows were 30.5 tonnes, the largest decline in holdings since May. All regions were sellers, but European investors accounted for 21 tonnes, nearly 70%, of the outflows.

The PBoC confirmed it added approximately 1.24 tonnes to reserves in January, extending its buying streak to 15 straight months. We continue to hear rumors that other central banks have been actively buying during the price correction.

The World Gold Council reported that central banks' net gold purchases totaled 863 tonnes in 2025. While that's down 21% versus 1,092 tonnes in 2024, it's still well above the longer-term annual average of 473 tonnes. The WGC forecasts central bank buying of 850 tonnes this year, amid persistent safe-haven appeal and diversification trends.

On the downside, I'll continue to watch the 20-day MA at $4,894.20 on a close basis for suggestions of renewed weakness. Today's Asian low at $4,966.61 provides a good intervening barrier. More substantial chart support is marked by Friday's low at $4,656.30, which stands in front of the rising 50-day MA at $4,571.72, and last week's low at $4,406.69.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$1.315 (+1.69%)
5-Day Change: +$3.721 (+4.69%)
YTD Range: $64.140 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +179.39

Silver has moved decisively back above the 50-day moving average to start the week, buoyed by renewed weakness in the dollar and a resilient gold market. Silver may also be garnering support from diminished concerns about an overvalued tech/AI sector.



Fears about an AI bubble and excessive cap ex spending spurred a sharp sell-off in tech stocks last week. However, much of the losses were retraced by the end of the week after some analysts called the concerns overblown.

A close above the 50-day MA today would be a favorable signal, but the more important $92.885/$93.155 zone remains well protected for now. This level is defined by the halfway-back point of the two-week plunge and the 20-day MA and must be regained to re-instill some confidence in the underlying bull trend. The $86.101 Fibonacci level and last week's reaction high at $92.186 provide additional upside hurdles.

On the downside, keep an eye on the 50-day MA at $78.638 on a close basis. Below that, today's Asian low at $77.963, $74.083, $71.684, and $70.000 all protect last week's low at $64.140.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver retreat into their ranges as extreme volatility persists

Outside Market Developments: Concerns over overstretched tech valuations have intensified after Alphabet (Google's parent company) reported strong Q4 results but forecast $175–$185 billion in 2026 capex – roughly double last year's – to fuel AI growth. Markets are in risk-off mode, driving a rotation out of tech/AI names into value stocks.

President Donald Trump signed a major $1.2 trillion funding package on Tuesday, ending a brief partial government shutdown. The bill narrowly passed the House by a three-vote margin, 217-214. Twenty-one Republicans voted against the package, highlighting tensions within the party over compromise with Democrats on Homeland Security funding and a number of other conservative priorities.

DHS funding was stripped out of the legislation to avert another protracted government shutdown and will be debated separately during a two-week stopgap period. Democrats will demand significant reforms to immigration enforcement, while Republicans will seek to maintain or expand robust DHS/ICE capabilities without major new restrictions.

The BLS has already announced that the January jobs report, initially scheduled for release on Friday, will be delayed due to the brief partial shutdown. Median expectations for nonfarm payrolls are +68k, with a steady jobless rate at 4.4%.

The jobs data that did come out this week have been soft, stoking ongoing worries about job creation, suggesting potential downside risk to NFP, and contributing to overall risk aversion. The ADP employment report showed private sector employment increased by just 22k jobs in January, well below market expectations of +48k.

“Job creation took a step back in 2025, with private employers adding 398,000 jobs, down from 771,000 in 2024. While we've seen a continuous and dramatic slowdown in job creation for the past three years, wage growth has remained stable,” said Dr. Nela Richardson, ADP's chief economist.

U.S. employers announced 108,435 job cuts in January, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, more than triple the 35,553 cuts seen in December. That's the highest print for a January since 2009.

“Generally, we see a high number of job cuts in the first quarter, but this is a high total for January. It means most of these plans were set at the end of 2025, signaling employers are less-than-optimistic about the outlook for 2026,” said Andy Challenger.

JOLTs job openings tumbled 386k to 6.542M in December 2025, the lowest since September 2020 and well below market expectations of 7.2M. Total separations, including quits, layoffs, discharges, and other separations, were little changed at 5.3M.

Initial jobless claims jumped to an eight-week high of 231k in the 31-Jan week, above expectations of 212k, versus 209k in the previous week. Continuing claims rose 25k to 1,844k in the week ended 24-Jan, below expectations of 1,850k, versus 1,819k in the previous period.

Rising job-market jitters have lifted Fed easing bets, although Fed funds futures continue to suggest the Fed is on pause through H1. That could change if January NFP misses expectations as well. Currently, the next 25 bps cut is not fully priced until September, and the implied Fed funds rate for year-end is 3.0875%, suggesting potential for just over 50 bps in total easing this year.

Risk aversion has pushed the dollar index to new highs for the week, although rising rate-cut expectations pose a headwind. Last week's plunge to four-year lows suggests the greenback remains vulnerable.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$96.91 (-1.95%)
5-Day Change: -$498.96 (-9.29%)
YTD Range: $4,310.83 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $2,835.23 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +74.38

Gold is back on the defensive today, weighed by a firmer dollar and a bull camp cautious about recommitting to the upside in light of recent volatility. In Monday's commentary, I wrote, "I'd like to see the market stabilize between $4,400 and $5,000 for some period," which would allow the trade to catch its breath and reevaluate the fundamental and technical pictures.



I see the fundamentals as still broadly supportive. Persistent geopolitical and trade uncertainties, along with the deterioration of the U.S. fiscal condition, continue to provide a tailwind for the yellow metal.

Recent four-year lows in the dollar are indicative of the macro de-dollarization trend. As part of that, central bank demand for gold remains robust, and there are indications that they have been active on this dip. We won't know to what extent until the World Gold Council reports February data in early March.

I speculated on Monday that we would likely see intensified physical buying in Asia, given that we're at the tail end of the Indian wedding season, and the Lunar New Year is just around the corner (17-Feb). Both are auspicious times to gift gold. Reports from key markets like China, Singapore, and India indicate the price drop has indeed led to strong retail enthusiasm.

Gold traded briefly above $5,000 on Wednesday, completing a more than 50% retracement of the recent plunge. However, gains faltered ahead of $5,100, leaving the 61.8% retracement level of the decline protected at $5,141.08 for the time being. Penetration of the latter is needed to significantly improve the technical picture, with $5,000 and Wednesday's high at $5,091.85 now providing intervening barriers. 

I do believe losses are corrective within the long-term downtrend, and I'm encouraged by the fact that gold held the 50-day moving average on a close basis this week and then registered subsequent closes back above the 20-day. I'm watching to see if $4,851.59 will hold on the close today.

UBS and Chase remain quite bullish into year-end, forecasting $6,200 and $6,300, respectively. Beyond last week's all-time high at $5,595.02, my next objectives were $5674.97 (Fibonacci) and $6,000 (psychological). I'll be able to generate some additional targets once I'm confident the corrective low is in.

For now, I suspect we'll see further choppy consolidation within a fairly broad range as the bulls and bears hash things out. Ultimately, that range will likely prove to be a continuation pattern (flag or pennant), culminating in an upside breakout and continuation of the bull trend. While this is my preferred scenario, silver has the potential to drag gold to new corrective lows.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$9.727 (-11.04%)
5-Day Change: -$39.011 (-33.79%)
YTD Range: $71.429 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +153.64

Silver remains extraordinarily volatile, with another double-digit percentage move today, weighed by a stronger dollar and revived concerns about overvaluation of the tech/AI sector. The rebound seen earlier in the week was nearly fully retraced and the white metal appears poised to close below its 50-day moving average.



While Monday's low of $71.684 and the low for the year at 71.429 (02-Jan) remain intact at this point, the downside remains vulnerable. Penetration of these levels would shift focus to the $70 zone initially, but potential to the rising 100-day MA at $63.471 would have to be considered.

The gold/silver ratio has firmed to a seven-week high above 66, suggesting scope for further retracement to the 70 zone. If that's the way things unfold, it means gold could hold its current range even if silver were to drop another $10+.

A rise back above the 50-day MA at $77.825 would ease short-term pressure on the downside somewhat, but it sure seems like the wild ride in silver is going to continue.

Additional resistances are marked by an intraday level at $81.043 and the high for the day at $90.392. Wednesday's high at $92.186 provides a strong intervening barrier ahead of the important 20-day MA at $93.500, which is rotating lower. A close above the latter is needed re-instill some confidence in the longer-term bullish scenario.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.