Blog posts tagged with 'silver'

Gold and silver poised for first higher weekly closes in three

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: U.S. and Iranian forces exchanged fire in the Strait of Hormuz on Friday as three U.S. Navy warships transited the waterway. "No U.S. assets were struck. U.S. Central Command eliminated inbound threats and targeted Iranian military facilities responsible for attacking U.S. forces including missile and drone launch sites; command and control locations; and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance nodes," according to CENTCOM.

Iran accused the U.S. of initiating the clash by targeting its vessels and coastal areas, calling it a ceasefire violation. President Trump described the incident as minor and said the fragile ceasefire remains in effect. “They trifled with us today. We blew them away,” said Trump.

Iran is still reviewing the latest U.S. peace proposal. Trump continues to say that talks are “going very well,” but need to conclude quickly.

April nonfarm payroll rose by 115k, beating consensus expectations of around 60k, with gains led by health care, transportation/warehousing, and retail trade. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, while wage growth remained modest at +0.2% m/m, painting a picture of a resilient labor market and underpinning risk appetite.

Job market resilience generally makes the Fed more comfortable holding interest rates steady, allowing it to continue focusing on fighting sticky inflation. The central bank can afford to wait for clearer signs that inflation is easing without risking a significant rise in unemployment.

Markets will be focused on inflation data in the week ahead. April CPI comes out on Tuesday, and PPI is up on Wednesday. These inflation readings, alongside housing data and FedSpeak, will shape expectations for the path of interest rates, while ongoing developments around the U.S.-Iran ceasefire and oil supply risks will keep geopolitical risks in play.

Additionally, the term of Fed chair Powell ends on 15-May. He is widely expected to be replaced by Kevin Warsh, pending final Senate confirmation. Powell could stay on as interim chair if necessary. I'm not expecting anything definitive on policy from Warsh until after he's presided over his first FOMC meeting.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$32.70 (+0.70%)
5-Day Change: +$100.86 (+2.19%)
YTD Range: $4,100.32 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,127.12 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +38.50

Gold heads into the weekend with a bit of a bid, and appears poised for its first higher weekly close in three. The yellow metal has been underpinned by optimism around Middle East de-escalation, lower oil, and a weaker dollar, allowing it to largely shrug off the most recent clash in the Strait of Hormuz and stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data.



The previous two closes have been right around the 20-day MA. I'd like to see a more convincing close above the 20-day to set up upside follow-through in the week ahead to challenge the 100-day MA at $4,783.91. Intervening resistance is noted at the convergence of this week's high and the 50-day MA at $4,764.57/$4,768.85.

An eventual convincing breach of the 100-day MA would bode well for a short-term retest of the mid-April high at $4,886.18. Penetration of that high would favor further retracement toward the $5,000 level.

However, price action will continue to hinge on Middle East headlines. If gold can't sustain the move above the 20-day MA, look for a retest of the $4,600 zone. A retreat below $4,600 would leave Monday's low at $4,503.02 vulnerable to a challenge.

While gold is entrenched within the range that formed earlier in the year, the long-term outlook remains structurally bullish. Most major banks are forecasting prices to climb toward $5,400 – $6,300 by the end of 2026 – 2027, with potential as high as $7,000 – $10,000 by 2030, driven by sustained central bank accumulation, investor diversification away from the dollar, elevated geopolitical risks, and persistent global debt and inflation concerns.

Incrementum noted in its latest IGWT Report: "[G]old ETFs recorded one of the largest monthly outflows in recent years, totaling 85 tonnes in March, while COMEX gold deliveries continued to decline from recent highs. Together, these dynamics point to easing speculative activity, a development that bodes well for the health and sustainability of the long-term gold bull market."


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$2.097 (+2.67%)
5-Day Change: +$5.091 (+6.76%)
YTD Range: $61.036 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $31.701 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +130.30

Silver continues to probe above the 100-day moving average and appears on track for its first higher weekly close in three. The white metal is being buoyed by the de-escalating situation in the Middle East and a weaker dollar, leading to a three-week high on Thursday, and what looks like it will be a more than 6% gain for the week.



Strong tech/AI earnings in recent weeks are contributing to the bid. They reinforce confidence in sustained heavy spending on cloud infrastructure, data centers, and AI hardware – sectors that are driving accelerating industrial silver demand for servers, electronics, connectors, and thermal management.

Industrial applications now make up nearly 60% of total silver demand (a record share). While overall industrial fabrication dipped slightly last year due to solar cutbacks, non-PV sectors continue showing structural, inelastic growth, contributing to persistent market deficits. This shift toward high-tech, hard-to-substitute uses underpins silver’s strong industrial floor.

While silver remains in the lower half of the wide $121.630/$61.036 range from Q1 of this year, the supply/demand equation remains broadly constructive. A convincing close above the 100-day at $80.633 would bode well for a retest of the mid-April high at $83.046. Above the latter, the midpoint of that wide range at $91.333 would be a logical attraction.

The convergence of the 50- and 20-day moving averages at the $76.798/$76.475 zone will be the important support zone to watch in the week ahead. Intervening supports are marked by today's low at $78.341 and Thursday's low at $77.005.

If silver can't hold above the 20-day, further consolidating in the lower half of the range would become likely. Potential would initially be back to this week's low at $72.264.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver rebound on de-escalation optimism, weaker dollar

Outside Market Developments: President Trump posted that Project Freedom in the Strait of Hormuz will be paused for a brief period to see if a final agreement to end the war can be achieved. "Great Progress has been made toward a Complete and Final Agreement," wrote Trump.

The post revived hopes that an end to the war may be near. This optimism is in sharp contrast to events earlier in the week when the fragile ceasefire seemed on the verge of collapse as both sides were shooting at each other.

Oil prices eased, moderating inflation risks. While Fed funds futures reflect a modestly more dovish tilt, expectations are still that the central bank is on hold for the remainder of the year. Nonetheless, the dollar index eked out a 10-week low.



Trump followed up with a fresh threat to resume the bombing of Iran "at a much higher level and intensity," if Tehran doesn't make a deal. This signals that the temporary de-escalation is conditional and that the U.S. is prepared to escalate significantly if talks fail.

Today's ADP report showed that U.S. private employers added 109k jobs in April, above expectations of +99k, versus a revised 61k in March. The report suggests continued labor market resilience and generates some optimism heading into Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, where consensus is +60k jobs.

Hopes for peace, lower energy prices, the ADP beat, and solid tech/AI earnings are all contributing to risk-on sentiment.
Markets will remain firmly in the grip of Middle East headlines.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$160.78 (+3.53%)
5-Day Change: +$145.29 (+3.20%)
YTD Range: $4,100.32 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,127.12 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +37.39

Gold jumped to new highs for the week on fresh optimism about progress toward a U.S.-Iran peace deal. Oil prices fell, relieving some inflationary pressure, and the dollar retreated.



The probe above the 20-day moving average is encouraging, but last week’s high at $4,729.72 remains intact, as early signs of de-escalation were quickly followed by threats of renewed bombing. Middle East headlines will remain the dominant driver of market direction.

A close above the 20-day and a breach of $4,729.72 would bode well for an upside extension to challenge the $4,776.75/$4.790.35 zone, where the 100- and 50-day MAs are converging. Above that, the mid-April high at $4,888.18 would be back in play.

On the downside, intraday support at $4,661.89 is bolstered by former resistance at $4,659.44. A move back below this area would suggest potential back below $4,600, leaving Monday's low at $4,503.02 vulnerable to a retest.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$4.791 (+6.58%)
5-Day Change: +$5.832 (+8.18%)
YTD Range: $61.036 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $31.701 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +117.50

Silver has surged more than 6% intraday, buoyed by optimism over Middle East de-escalation, a weaker dollar, and better-than-expected April jobs growth. Strong earnings from tech/AI companies provide additional support for the white metal, reinforcing the narrative of ongoing robust AI infrastructure spending.



While silver remains entrenched in the lower half of the broad range established earlier in the year, today's tests above the 20- and 50-day moving averages offer encouragement to the bull camp. A close above those key indicators would bode well for a short-term push back above $80 to challenge the rising 100-day MA at $80.372. Above the latter, focus would return to the 17-Apr high at $83.046.

The 20-day MA at $76.098 marks first support, which protects today's early U.S. low at $75.845. If silver can't hold above the latter, the lows for the week at $72.658/264 would be back in play, with potential for a challenge of the $70 zone.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver weighed by rising Middle East tensions

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: The week begins with heightened Middle East tensions. Iran claims that it struck a U.S. Navy warship in the Strait of Hormuz with missiles. CENTCOM confirmed Iran launched an attack, but said, “No U.S. Navy ships have been struck.”

U.S. forces retaliated, destroying six Iranian small boats that were involved in the attack. While the ceasefire has not been formally ended, with both sides firing on the other, the trade is understandably concerned.

 With passage through the Strait being actively challenged by Iran, and the U.S. continuing its blockade, oil prices remain elevated near four-year highs. Brent crude continues to test above $120 per barrel.

Persistent inflation concerns are keeping dovish Fed bets in check, underpinning yields and the dollar. The greenback is also garnering safe-haven interest. 

On Friday, President Trump threatened to raise tariffs on cars and trucks imported from Europe from 15% to 25%. This reamplifies trade uncertainty, adding to the bid in the dollar.

Markets will continue to react to Middle East headlines. Focus this week will also be on U.S. jobs data, culminating in Friday's nonfarm payrolls report for April. Consensus is currently +60k payrolls with the jobless rate steady at 4.3%.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$52.78 (-1.14%)
5-Day Change: -$158.01 (-3.38%)
YTD Range: $4,100.32 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,127.12 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +30.72

Gold is under pressure to begin the week amid heightened Middle East tensions, higher oil prices, and a stronger dollar. The yellow metal has notched a fresh four-week low but remains above the midpoint of the range that has emerged since the March low was established at $4,100.32.

 

With gold well below the 20-, 50-, and 100-day moving averages, the downside is seen as more vulnerable. If the midpoint of the range-within-the-range at $4,494.25 gives way, look for additional retracement to the 4,401.28 level. Below the latter, the rising 200-day MA at $4,299.85 and the $4,268.92 Fibonacci level would be in play.

While the short-term technical picture has deteriorated in recent weeks, the yellow is still up nearly 40% from a year ago. 
Longer-term bullish factors such as central bank buying, structural demand, and de-dollarization persist, leading many analysts to target significantly higher prices later in the year.

The World Gold Council noted last week that central banks bought 244 tonnes of gold on a net basis in Q1, a rise of 3% y/y. Bar and coin demand surged 42% y/y to 474 tonnes, the second-highest quarter on record. Global ETF buying increased by 62 tonnes, tempered by sizable outflows from U.S. funds in March. Demand for gold used in technology grew by 1% to 82 tonnes, "fuelled largely by the continued growth in AI infrastructure."

Investment demand for gold now significantly exceeds fabrication demand. Weaker jewellery consumption, combined with surging investor interest, has markedly shifted the composition of global gold demand in recent years, according to the WGC, with investors playing a much larger role relative to traditional fabrication uses.

Given the record-high gold prices, jewellery demand faced pressure with volumes declining 23% year-over-year. However, total consumer spending on gold jewellery rose sharply by 31%, indicating strong positive sentiment and a willingness among buyers to purchase higher-value pieces even at elevated prices.

Overall, gold demand (including OTC) rose 2% to 1,231 tonnes in Q1. "This modest growth in volumes combined with gold’s exceptional price rise, generated a 74% jump in the value of quarterly demand to a record US$193bn, said the WGC.

Gold must regain the 100-day MA at $4,770.43 to set a more favorable tone within the range. Intervening barriers are marked by today's overseas high at $4,628.92, Friday's high at $4,659.44, and the declining 20-day MA at $4,709.44


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$1.996 (-2.65%)
5-Day Change: -$2.385 (-3.16%)
YTD Range: $61.036 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $31.701 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +101.97

Silver has retreated, weighed by heightened inflation concerns, dimming hopes for a Fed rate cut later in the year, a firmer dollar, and multi-week lows in gold. Gains late last week were limited by the 20-day moving average, leaving the white metal well contained within its recent range.



Silver notched its second consecutive lower weekly close on Friday, and April was the second straight lower monthly close. Given that silver remains below the 20-, 50-, and 100-day MAs and the positioning of those indicators relative to each other, the market remains vulnerable.

A retest of last week's low at $70.893, and a downside extension to the $70 zone must be considered. However, revived hopes for the ceasefire and peace process between the U.S. and Iran could change that quickly. Middle East headlines will continue to drive the market.

A short-term close above the 20-day MA would shift focus to last week's high at $76.950. A breach of this level would bode well for a challenge of the 100-day MA at $80.172.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver hit multi-week lows with Iran war stalemate and Fed in focus

Outside Market Developments: The Fed held rates steady today, as was widely expected. The vote was 8-4, reflecting the highest number of dissenters in more than 30 years.

The dissent is a little complex, with only Governor Stephen Miran truly dissenting in favor of a 25 bps rate cut. The other three, Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan, supported a steady Fed funds rate but objected to the "inclusion of an easing bias in the statement at this time." That makes one dovish dissenter and three gently hawlish dissenters.

“In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks,” was the line in question for the hawkish dissenters.

Given the three consecutive rate cuts into year-end 2025, the word “additional” implies that the central bank is considering further rate cuts going forward, creating a subtle easing bias. The three dissenting members believed a more neutral stance was warranted, in light of persistent inflation concerns, especially rising energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict.

The FOMC did express concerns about elevated inflation and slow job growth, but acknowledged that "economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace" and the unemployment rate is "little changed." Despite the alleged "dovish tilt," I see the guidance as generally neutral and data dependent, largely unchanged from March and January.

In a highly unusual (although perhaps not unexpected) move, Chairman Powell revealed during today's presser that he will remain on the Board of Governors when his term as chairman ends on 15-May, citing the Trump administration's "unprecedented" political and legal attacks as the reason for his decision. The last Fed chair that stayed on was Marriner Eccles in 1948, for whom the Fed building is named, and the renovation of which has been the source of much conflict between Trump and Powell.

Middle East headlines and energy prices continue to be the bigger driving forces in the market, leading to today's risk-off sentiment. The Iran war is in a fragile stalemate under an extended ceasefire, with the U.S. and Iran engaged in a tense dual blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which continues to underpin oil prices.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$27.10 (-0.59%)
5-Day Change: -$195.49 (-4.12%)
YTD Range: $4,100.32 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,127.12 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +34.45

Gold fell to another round of four-week lows, weighed by rising pessimism about a speedy resolution to the war with Iran, which continues to underpin oil prices. The dollar is garnering the majority of the haven interest, amid inflation worries, putting additional pressure on the yellow metal.

 

Tuesday's push below $4,600 left gold vulnerable to the halfway back point of the March/April rally at $4,494.25. This level came within striking distance on Wednesday, and there is additional nearby support at $4,484.51 (31-Mar low). Penetration of these supports would shift focus to the next retracement level at $4,401.28.

The convincing move below the important 100- and 20-day moving averages erodes confidence in the longer-term recovery scenario. However, I still believe the market is more likely to continue consolidating within the broad range established earlier in the year than extend to the downside beyond the March low at $4,100.32.

I'd like to see the market regain the 100-day MA at $4761.79 to ease short-term pressure on the downside. Such a move would put the 17-Apr high at $4,886.16 back in play, returning focus to the $5,000 zone. 


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$2.744 (-3.63%)
5-Day Change: -$6.375 (-8.20%)
YTD Range: $61.036 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $31.701 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +99.60

Silver slid to a three-week low on Wednesday, weighed by persistent Middle East worries, higher oil prices, and a firm dollar. Today's Fed decision was largely a non-event as the hold was 100% priced in and the guidance was largely unchanged.



This week's convincing move below the 20-day moving average leaves the white metal vulnerable back to the $70 zone. More than half of the March/April rally has been retraced, adding to the technically bearish tilt. Secondary chart supports at $69.859, and $69.606 protect the $69.444 Fibonacci level (61.8% retracement of the rally off the March low at $61.036.

A climb back above the 20-day MA at $75.789 would revive a more favorable tone within the range. Wednesday's high at $73.949 provides an intervening barrier. 


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver are softer but confined to Friday's ranges amid mixed signals on Middle East conflict

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: U.S.-Iran peace talks remain stalled on core issues like reopening the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's nuclear program, and regional security guarantees. While mediators such as Pakistan are trying to get the two sides back to the negotiating table, regional tensions remain elevated.

Iran submitted a new proposal to reopen the Strait in exchange for the U.S. ending its blockade and postponing nuclear program talks, but no agreement has been reached yet. The blockade continues, and commercial traffic through the Strait is largely halted, underpinning oil prices. However, the ceasefire is holding, and elevated risk appetite is suggestive of lingering optimism.

The dollar index jumped to a three-week high on the initial reports that peace talks had stalled, but quickly reversed course when Iran proffered the new proposal to open the Strait. 

War/oil-related inflation risks will certainly be a hot topic at this week's FOMC meeting. The Fed is widely expected to hold steady on policy, with guidance continuing to reflect a “higher for longer” tilt. The market will hone in on any perceived shift in that generally hawkish bias.

This is expected to be Jerome Powell’s final FOMC meeting as Chair. His term expires on May 15, and Kevin Warsh has been nominated as his replacement. Warsh is anticipated to be confirmed by the Senate in the coming weeks.

While Kevin Warsh has adopted a more dovish tone in recent years, favoring lower rates, he has a longstanding reputation as an inflation hawk. It will be particularly interesting to see how Fed policy guidance evolves in the early months of a Warsh chairmanship, especially given President Trump’s strong pro-growth agenda. Tensions between the White House and the central bank could either intensify – heightening concerns over the fiscal outlook – or lead to lingering questions about Fed independence.

This weekend’s third reported assassination attempt on Donald Trump reinforces perceptions of deeply entrenched and escalating political and social tensions in the United States. With midterm elections approaching in November, concerns about further attacks and public safety at high-profile events are likely to intensify, raising fresh questions about the durability of America’s social fabric in this new era of media (social and otherwise)-fueled rage-baiting.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.12 (0.00%)
5-Day Change: -$142.95 (-2.97%)
YTD Range: $4,100.32 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,127.12 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +39.97

Gold began the week on defense after notching its first lower weekly close in four on Friday. The yellow metal was initially weighed by worries that peace talks had broken down, leading to higher oil prices and a haven bid in the dollar. While those concerns have moderated somewhat intraday, gold remains under pressure.



With the market back below the 100- and 20-day moving averages, some vulnerability for further losses is suggested. However, the market will continue to key off Middle East headlines, while looking ahead to the FOMC meeting later in the week.

As long as the ceasefire is holding, and at least diplomatic back-channels are open, I expect the market to continue coiling in the lower half of the broad range established earlier in the year. 

A close back above the 100-day MA at $4,4754.72 is needed to set a slightly more favorable short-term tone. Such a move would return focus to last week's highs at $4,827.49/32.70.

On the other hand, a breach of last week's low at $4,658.77 would favor a retreat to the $4.600 zone. The 13-Apr low at $4,645.10 provides a decent intervening barrier.

A New York Times investigation over the weekend revealed that the U.S. Mint has allegedly been sourcing gold through opaque intermediaries from illegal mines controlled by Colombia's Clan del Golfo drug cartel, a U.S.-designated terrorist organization. The Mint and the Treasury Department have yet to formally respond, although Treasury Secretary Bessent said he would investigate.

Calls for "clean" provenance standards are likely to intensify, requiring more stringent supply chain documentation and driving up compliance costs. This could lead to higher premiums on physical products. This is a developing story.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.216 (+0.29%)
5-Day Change: -$4.535 (-5.69%)
YTD Range: $61.036 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $31.701 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +114.83

Silver is consolidating within Friday's range, tracking the 20-day moving average, as the market looks ahead to this week's FOMC meeting. Last week, silver notched its first lower weekly close in five amid waning optimism about a U.S.-Iran peace deal. A firmer dollar poses an additional headwind, although broad supply/demand dynamics remain supportive.



Look for choppy price action to continue into Wednesday's Fed policy decision and presser, with Middle East headlines an ongoing wildcard. The downside is perhaps slightly more vulnerable given the market's inability to sustain recent gains above the 100- and 50-day moving averages.

A close below the 20-day MA would open up the possibility of a return to the $70 zone. Friday's low at $73.984, and the previous week's low at $72.792 mark intervening downside barriers.

A climb back above the 100-day MA at $79.627 would shift focus to the 17-Apr high at $83.046. Above the latter, the $90 zone, and the important halfway back point of this year's plunge at $91.333 would be back in play.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver retreat as Middle East tensions escalate

Outside Market Developments: De-escalation optimism surged late last week after both President Trump and Iran's Foreign Minister announced that the Strait of Hormuz was fully open. While the U.S. naval blockade of Iran remained in place, there were hopes that the combatants were progressing toward at least an extension of the ceasefire that is set to expire tomorrow evening, and perhaps a peace deal.

Those hopes quickly evaporated after Iran subsequently said the Strait would remain closed as long as the blockade continued. Each side is accusing the other of ceasefire violations, and the second round of peace talks in Pakistan is in jeopardy.

President Trump has threatened to initiate attacks on Iranian dual-use infrastructure. He has warned that if Iran does not accept a deal or reopen the Strait, the U.S. will "knock out every single power plant and every single bridge in Iran."

The situation in the Middle East remains highly fluid. Markets will continue to key off the headlines.

The trade is tilted toward risk-off to begin the week. Oil prices are up sharply, reviving concerns about inflation and dimming rate cut hopes. Nonetheless, the dollar remains defensive. Stocks have retreated from last week's highs.

The confirmation hearing for Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh is scheduled for Tuesday. Warsh is widely viewed as pragmatic with a hawkish tilt on inflation, though his views have shown some flexibility in recent years. Fed independence is likely to be a major focus of questioning from senators. While Warsh is widely expected to be confirmed and take the helm of the Fed sometime in May.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$35.74 (-0.74%)
5-Day Change: +$77.31 (+1.63%)
YTD Range: $4,100.32 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,127.12 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +44.13

Gold retreated to a five-session low in early Asian trading on Monday after Middle East tensions increased over the weekend. However, the downside was limited by lingering hopes for an extension of the ceasefire and another round of peace talks. Dollar weakness provides additional underpinning.



The yellow metal notched a third straight higher weekly close last week and four-week highs. More than 50% of the total decline from the January record high at $5,595.02 has now been retraced, returning a measure of confidence to the underlying uptrend.

A breach of Friday's high at $4,886.14 – which corresponds closely with the 50-day moving average – would bode well for tests of the $4,915.17 Fibonacci level and $5,000. Another important retracement level comes in at $5,024.04.

Investors continue to move back into gold, as evidenced by the latest ETF data. Net inflows to global ETFs last week totalled 21.7 tonnes, led by North American investors (13.9 tonnes). It was the third consecutive weekly inflow.

I have repeatedly noted this year that gold has been trading like a risk asset, ignoring key risk-off events like war and focusing instead on inflation implications and shifts in Fed policy expectations. The latest Heraeus Precious Appraisal is titled, Gold remains a safe haven despite 2026 price action.

"[This year's] moves do not reflect a change to the fundamental case for gold. Some repositioning and deleveraging during times of cross-asset volatility should be expected. The gold price responding to technical indicators is also an expected symptom of shorter-term speculative market participants. This volatility is likely to last for some time, but, in the long run, gold will retain its fundamental attraction as a way to retain purchasing power."

I agree – gold is likely to resume its long-term uptrend once near-term volatility subsides. The move higher would be supported by familiar core fundamentals that have driven the bull market: strong central bank buying, continued ETF inflows, and broad structural demand for gold as a hedge against geopolitical risks, currency debasement, de-dollarization efforts, and persistent U.S. fiscal deficits.

Subdued upside momentum remains a bit of a concern for the bull camp. Continue to watch the 100- and 20-day moving averages on the downside. Penetration of last week's low at at $4,645.10 would be troubling, putting the $4,601.77 (6-Apr) and $4.555.48 (2-Apr) lows in play.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$1.578 (-1.95%)
5-Day Change: +$4.662 (+6.17%)
YTD Range: $61.036 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $31.701 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +131.99

Silver is trading lower, but remains confined to Friday's range. While optimism about Middle East de-escalation and a soft dollar are generally supportive, the white metal has struggled above $80.



That being said, the 50- and 100-day moving averages are doing a good job of containing the downside. Volatility remains elevated, and price action will continue to hinge on headlines from the Middle East and Washington.

The fundamental demand picture remains quite bullish, and this year will mark the sixth consecutive year of a structural deficit. However, we continue to see indications that the market is trying to address the imbalance.

According to Heraeus, silver exploration has surged, becoming the "fourth most explored target in 2025," with a 37% increase in economically viable projects. While mined supply grew by 3% last year – led by Central and South America –secondary supply from recycling is also on the rise.

Heraeus also noted Indian demand skyrocketed through the end of its fiscal year on March 31, with imports increasing by 42% year-on-year to over 235 million ounces. This reflects silver's dual role as both a jewelry staple and a critical inflation hedge. While both silver and gold reached record highs this year, the former is increasingly considered a more accessible and cheaper alternative to the latter.

A sustained move above $80 would bode well for a push toward $84.183 (38.2% of the entire decline off the $121.630 all-time high). Beyond the latter, $90 and the halfway back point of this year's drop at $91.333 would be in play.

I'll continue to watch the 50- and 100-day moving averages on a close basis. Secondary support is marked by Friday's low at $77.828, penetration of which would shift focus to $75.400.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver jump to multi-week highs on rising de-escalation hopes

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: This morning, both President Trump and Iran's Foreign Minister said that the Strait of Hormuz is fully open. While the U.S. naval blockade continues, Trump believes a deal to end the war would come "soon." 

Arguably, Iran's credible threats against shipping in the Strait are its primary source of leverage, so the fact that it's open suggests there has been progress toward a peace deal, or at least an extension of the ceasefire. The U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and  Lebanon further moderates regional risks.

Risk-on sentiment prevails, as oil tumbled to multi-week lows. The tempering of inflation concerns saw prospects for a Fed rate cut later in the year rise.

Major U.S. stock indexes have extended gains. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have set new all-time highs, while the DJIA has moved back within striking distance of 50,000.

The dollar index slid to seven-week lows driven by revived rate-cut bets and diminished haven interest. A breach of support at 97.50/49 would favor additional retracement toward 96.64/49.



The March retail sales report is the highlight of next week's U.S. data. Median expectations call for a 1.3% m/m rise. With the calendar generally light next week, the market will continue to take its cues from Middle East and Washington headlines.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$3.23 (-0.07%)
5-Day Change: +$113.64 (+2.39%)
YTD Range: $4,100.32 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,127.12 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +46.70

Gold advanced to four-week highs on Friday and appears on track for a third straight higher weekly close. The yellow metal is being buoyed by Middle East de-escalation hopes, rebounding rate cut expectations, and a weaker dollar.



Ongoing progress in resolving the Iran conflict should support gold prices in the week ahead. That said, any major setback would likely cause gold to give back some of its recent gains.

The 50-day moving average at $4,892.81 has capped the upside thus far. Penetration is needed to clear the way for a challenge of the $4,915.17 retracement level. Above that, a move back above $5,000 would be likely, returning considerable confidence to the underlying uptrend.

On the downside, intraday congestion just below $4,800 protects the overseas low at $4,768.46. More substantial supports are marked by Tuesday's low at $4,740.30, and the low for the week from Monday at $4,645.10.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.870 (+1.12%)
5-Day Change: +$6.020 (+7.92%)
YTD Range: $61.036 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $31.701 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +144.73

Silver jumped to a five-week high in U.S. trading, driven by broad risk-on sentiment after news broke that the Strait of Hormuz was open. Revived hopes for a Fed rate cut this year, and a weaker dollar added to the bid. The white metal is poised for a fourth consecutive higher weekly close. 



The breach of a short-term Fibonacci objective at $82.887 and the decisive move above the 50-day MA bode well for additional retracement toward $84.183 (38.2% of the entire decline off the $121.630 all-time high). Beyond the latter, $90 and the halfway back point of this year's drop at $91.333 would be in play.

First support is the $80 area, which should keep intraday support at $79.617 at bay. Friday's overseas low at $77.828 now provides a good intervening barrier ahead of lows from earlier in the week at $75.400 and $72.792.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver ease intraday after setting four-week highs

Outside Market Developments: Revived hopes for Middle East de-escalation continue to underpin risk appetite. The two-week ceasefire is holding, and expectations are mounting that a second round of peace talks will commence in the days ahead.

U.S. Central Command reports that the naval blockade of Iranian ports is fully in place and actively being enforced. Seaborn trade, primarily oil, accounts for about 90% of the Iranian economy. The blockade will be economically devastating, with the U.S. hoping that it will drive the Iranians to accept its peace terms.

Yesterday's PPI data came in cooler than expected, moderating recent inflation concerns. Headline PPI rose 0.5% in March, below expectations of +1.1%, versus +0.5% in February; 4.0% y/y (highest since Feb'23), up from 3.4% y/y in February. Core PPI was up just 0.1% on expectations of +0.5%, versus +0.3% in February; +3.8% y/y, unchanged from February. 

Given that it's Tax Day, it's worth reiterating the well-known reality that government spending remains far greater than revenue. Through the first six months of FY2026, the U.S. federal government collected $2.48 trillion in revenue and spent $3.65 trillion. While the $1.17 trillion deficit for the period is modestly smaller than the $1.3 trillion deficit from H1 FY2025, it all keeps adding up.

The national debt is growing by $4-5 billion per day and currently stands at about $39 trillion. The $40 trillion threshold will be crossed well before year end, amplifying an already unsustainable trajectory.

Net interest payments are projected to exceed $1 trillion annually this fiscal year (roughly $88 billion per month!). This is now one of the largest single items in the federal budget, rivaling or surpassing defense and Medicare spending.

Massive government borrowing competes with businesses and households for capital, pushing up interest rates across the economy. This reduces private investment, slows productivity growth, and can lead to lower wages and slower long-term economic growth. It also threatens to further undermine confidence in the dollar as the global reserve currency, perpetuating – and perhaps accelerating – the dedollarization trend.

More than 50% of this year's rebound in the dollar index has been retraced, returning credence to the long-term downtrend. A breach of important Fibonacci support at 97.50 would bode well for an eventual retest of the four-year low set in January at 95.55.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$41.39 (-0.85%)
5-Day Change: +$93.61 (+1.98%)
YTD Range: $4,100.32 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,127.12 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +44.65

Gold reached a four-week high of $4,871.02 in overseas trading, buoyed by de-escalation optimism, tempered inflation worries, and a weaker dollar. While the yellow metal subsequently eased to trade lower on the day, intraday losses are likely being driven by short-term profit-taking.



While short-term market movements will continue to hinge on Middle East headlines, the U.S. fiscal situation noted above provides long-term support. In addition, central bank gold buying is a major component of the broader de-dollarization trend.

Gold is seen as a neutral, sanction-proof asset that doesn’t carry the same geopolitical or counterparty risk as dollar-denominated assets. The shift to gold accelerated after 2022 when Western sanctions froze Russian reserves, prompting many countries to view dollar holdings as vulnerable.

Central banks are on pace to buy 850 tonnes this year, roughly double pre-2022 levels. This year, gold has overtaken U.S. Treasuries as the largest reserve asset held by central banks in value terms. That is partially attributable to ongoing reserve diversification, but strong price appreciation is a significant contributing factor as well.

As long as gold is trading above the 100-day moving average, the technical bias remains tilted to the upside. With more than half of this year's plunge retraced, a measure of confidence has been returned to the underlying uptrend.

The 50-day MA was approached in earlier trading today, but was left intact as profit-taking pressure emerged. A breach of the 50-day would perpetuate the four-week rally, favoring tests above $5,000 for the first time since the mid-March plunge. Gold back above $5000 would go a long way toward reviving the bull camp's optimism.

On the downside, the 100-dau MA at $4,711.20 is protected by Tuesday's low at $4,740.30. The 20-day MA looks to be rotating and should bolster support marked by Monday's low at $4,645.10 as the week progresses. I'd like to see the 20-day climb back above the 100-day – perhaps as early as next week – to encourage additional technical buying.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.768 (-0.97%)
5-Day Change: +$4.786 (+6.46%)
YTD Range: $61.036 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $31.701 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +132.19

Silver set a four-week high above $80 in overseas trade. While the 80-handle could not be sustained, the technical picture continues to improve, albeit slowly.



The white metal is being underpinned by the same factors that are supporting gold. However, silver is garnering additional support from an industrial demand component provided by electrification/AI/data center demand, which is outstripping available supply. The silver market is expected to register its sixth straight annual deficit this year. 

Nearly a third of global silver production is a byproduct of copper mining. Copper supply is facing significant disruptions in both Indonesia, where the giant Grasberg mine has cut output by roughly 30-35% due to a major mudflow incident in September and ongoing operational issues, and in Chile, where labor strikes, declining ore grades, and maintenance delays at key mines have reduced production in early 2026. 

Eleven-week highs in copper indicate expectations for ongoing strong industrial demand, and an acknowledgement of persistent supply constraints. With more than 61.8% of this year's retreat now retraced, focus shifts to $6.3331 initially, with potential back to January's record high at $6.6230. The bullish outlook for copper should continue to provide indirect support for the silver market.

While short-term action will continue to be headline-driven and volatile, further tests above $80 seem likely. The next significant upside objective is the $82.887 Fibonacci level (61.8% of the leg down from $96.393 to $61.036). Above that, the $84.183 level (38.2% of the entire decline off the $121.630 all-time high) would be in play.

Continue to eye the 100-day MA on a close basis. Below that, $76.580 (trendline) and $75.400 (14-Apr low) protect the important $73.100/$72.792 zone, where the 20-day moving average corresponds with Monday's low.  


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver start the week slightly defensive after peace talks break down

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Middle East tensions are back on the rise, after peace talks between the U.S. and Iran broke down over the weekend. Each side is blaming the other for the failure to reach a deal.

While the fragile two-week ceasefire remains in place, the Trump administration moved quickly to ramp up economic pressure on Iran. The U.S. Navy has been ordered to blockade Iranian ports and interdict vessels entering and leaving the Strait of Hormuz that have paid the Iranian toll.

Oil prices have rebounded as prospects for a peace deal evaporated, reviving inflation worries and expectations that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer. Nonetheless, risk appetite is displaying some resilience, amid hopes that the blockade will force the Iranians back to the bargaining table.

Tuesday's PPI report is likely to reinforce inflation concerns ignited by last week's hot CPI print. Consensus for PPI is +1.2% m/m and 4.6% y/y, versus +0.7% m/m and 3.4% y/y in February. 

War headlines and inflation developments will dominate market attention this week. Q1 2026 earnings season also kicks off, led by major bank results and key reports from the technology and semiconductor sectors. Investors will closely watch how resilient these sectors are in the face of the recent oil shock. Volatility is expected to remain elevated all week.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$26.45 (-0.56%)
5-Day Change: +$76.94 (+1.65%)
YTD Range: $4,100.32 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,127.12 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +41.13

Gold retreated into the range after the U.S.-Iran peace talks in Pakistan collapsed after just 21 hours. However, persistent hopes for a speedy diplomatic resolution and a soft dollar provide some underpinning.



The 20-day moving average successfully contained overseas losses, and combined with the subsequent rebound back above the 100-day, there's some cause for technical optimism. I'd like to see a close above the 100-day today, followed by renewed tests above $4,800.

A breach of last week's high at $4,853.18 would clear the way for a challenge of the $4,900.07/$4,915.17 zone, where the 50-day MA closely aligns with an important retracement level. Beyond the latter, the $5,000 area would be back in play.

Investors expressed optimism last week with a second straight week of net inflows into gold ETFs. All regions were net buyers.

Monday's overseas low at $4,645.10 and the 20-day MA at $4,642.21 mark initial supports. Penetration of these levels would highlight the $4,600 zone, with potential to the 2-Apr low at $4,555.08.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$1.517 (-2.00%)
5-Day Change: +$1.093 (+1.50%)
YTD Range: $61.036 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $31.701 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +112.29

Silver begins the week on the back foot after rising in four of five sessions last week. While the failure of peace negotiations provides a headwind, the market is holding out hope that a deal will be reached in fairly short order.



A weaker dollar and optimism about tech sector earnings provide support. Silver is a critical industrial metal used heavily in semiconductors, electronic components, data center infrastructure, and high-efficiency solar panels. As investor enthusiasm around artificial intelligence grows, demand for powerful servers, advanced chips, and massive new data centers is surging.

At the same time, the enormous energy needs of AI are accelerating the deployment of renewable energy, particularly solar, for which silver is an essential material in photovoltaic cells. This dual demand (electronics + green energy) creates a strong fundamental tailwind for silver, even in uncertain macroeconomic environments.

The white metal needs to regain the 100-day moving average on a closing basis to return a measure of confidence to the underlying uptrend. Such a move would bode well for a rebound above $80. Fibonacci resistance at $82.887 is an important trigger for putting $100 back in play.

Monday's overseas low at $72.792 corresponded closely with the 20-day MA at $72.883. Secondary support is well defined by last week's low at $69.859.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.