Blog posts tagged with 'silver'

Gold consolidates, awaiting fresh inputs

Outside Market Developments: The ongoing war in the Middle East, now in its 12th day, continues to drive uncertainty and risk aversion. The U.S. reportedly destroyed 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, in an effort to keep the critical oil chokepoint open. Meanwhile, Iran continued to launch missile and drone strikes on Israel, Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, and multiple commercial ships in or near the Strait.

While oil prices have moderated from Monday's spike high near $120, Brent crude is still trading more than $20 higher than a year ago, despite the IEA announcement of an emergency reserve release of 400 million barrels. This marked the largest coordinated stock release in the IEA's history, unanimously agreed upon by its 32 members to address unprecedented supply challenges caused by the ongoing U.S.-Iran war.

Securing and fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz is a primary objective of the U.S. military. "If Iran does anything that stops the flow of Oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far," President Trump posted on TruthSocial earlier in the week.

One might think that the huge reserve release would quell immediate supply concerns, but some argue that it's suggestive of preparations for a prolonged war. However, President Trump said today that the war will end "soon" because there is "practically nothing left to target."

Securing and fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz is a primary objective of the U.S. military. "If Iran does anything that stops the flow of Oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far," President Trump posted on TruthSocial earlier in the week.

Today's consumer inflation report was largely benign. Headline CPI rose 0.3% in February, in line with expectations, versus +0.2% in January. The annualized rate was steady at 2.4%. Core CPI was +0.2%, in line with expectations, versus +0.3% in January; +2.5% y/y, unchanged from January.

Focus now shifts to Friday's PCE report for January, which includes the Fed's favored measure of inflation. Market expectations for this pre-war period are generally neutral, even as price risks have soared more recently.

The dollar is trading higher today amid those inflation concerns and expectations that the Fed will remain on pause into Q4. The next 25 bps rate hike isn't fully priced until December.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$6.70 (-0.13%)
5-Day Change: +$34.74 (+0.68%)
YTD Range: $4,310.83 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $2,910.24 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +76.97

Gold is trading modestly lower with price action confined to Tuesday's range. The safe-haven bid associated with the war and broad trade and geopolitical uncertainty is being offset by inflation concerns that have dimmed prospects for Fed easing this year and lifted the dollar.



pent the majority of the week in the lower half of the range that was established on Monday and Tuesday. The inability to sustain those initial tests above $5,400 sets up the yellow metal's first lower weekly close in five weeks.

With the $5,000 support zone considered intact and the 20-day moving average continuing to attract buying interest, the technical bias remains bullish. As long as the war is ongoing, the downside is seen as limited.

Evidence that Iran's ability to project power and harass shipping in the Straits has been eliminated (or significantly degraded) would signal that U.S. military action in the Middle East could begin winding down. This would weigh on gold initially, potentially leading to a retest of the $5,000 level.

The midpoint of the range-within-the-range comes in at $4,912.76. This level protects the $4,847.74 low from 17-Feb, which corresponds closely with the 50-day MA. Below that, the $4,800/$4,793.33 would be in play.

However, signs that the war is wrapping up would also push oil prices lower, diminishing inflation risks. Fed easing expectations would rebound, and the dollar would retreat, ultimately providing renewed lift for gold.

A breach of last week's high at $5,418.84 and a minor chart point at $5,450.83 (30-Jan high) would clear the way for a retest of the record high at $5,595.02. Ultimately, the dominant trend is still seen as bullish, and the magnitude of the retracement already seen strongly suggests the corrective low is in at $4,406.69.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$1.782 (-2.02%)
5-Day Change: +$1.831 (+2.19%)
YTD Range: $64.14 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +165.81

Silver was unable to sustain tests in the Asian session above $90, as volatility persists. The white metal remains confined to last week's range, underpinned by haven interest, but with pared rate cut bets and a firmer dollar providing headwinds.



The market is still reeling from the extreme volatility seen earlier in the year, where the sharp run-up to record levels above $120 significantly disrupted the global supply chain. The subsequent near halving of the price over the course of just six sessions has everyone a little gun-shy.
 
Nonetheless, the fundamental backdrop remains bullish. The Silver Institute projects the market to post its sixth consecutive annual supply deficit of around 67 Moz this year, despite a stronger supply picture. An aproximately 1% rise in mine production to 820 Moz will help boost global supply by 1.5% to a decade-high of 1.05 Boz.

As the dust continues to settle, I expect the bulls to be increasingly emboldened as downside risk points within the broad range become more apparent. I continue to watch the rising 20-day MA on a close basis. The significance of the $80 zone was reinforced by Monday's low at $79.767, providing good protection in front of last week's low at $78.092.

A sustained move above $90 is needed to return focus last week's high at $96.393. The $90.980/$91.322 area now marks good intervening resistance.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver recover from overseas tests of the downside

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: The escalating Middle East conflict continues to weigh on risk appetite as the week begins. The U.S. continues to strike Iranian oil facilities, military sites, and cities like Tehran and Qom. In response, Iran has intensified retaliatory missile and drone barrages targeting Israel, Gulf states, and U.S. assets across the region.

Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was formally appointed as Iran's new Supreme Leader on Sunday. The new leader is widely regarded as an anti-Western hardliner who is even more ideologically rigid and confrontational than his father. He likely already has a target on his back.

Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz through threats and attacks on shipping, spiking global oil prices above $100–$120 per barrel and broadening the conflict into a multi-front regional energy and military crisis. Beyond the mounting geopolitical risks, soaring energy prices have stoked broader inflation concerns.

Mounting price risks have weighed on rate cut expectations, pushing the likelihood of further easing deeper into H2. Currently, a 25 bps cut isn't fully priced until October.

Prospects for U.S. yields to remain higher for longer and risk-off rotations out of stocks have buoyed the dollar. While the dollar index eked out a new 14-week high in Asian trading, selling interest emerged subsequently, leaving the 100 level protected. Note the potential double top.



Recent U.S. economic data show a slowdown in labor market momentum, with nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly declining by 92k in February, well below expectations of +59k, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. Persistently soft retail sales and the limited government shutdown pose growth risks and another level of uncertainty.

Focus this week will be on U.S. inflation data. Annualized CPI and core CPI inflation are expected to hold steady at 2.4% and 2.5% respective. However, PCE inflation readings are projected to accelerate modestly.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$85.54 (-1.65%)
5-Day Change: -$226.10 (-4.25%)
YTD Range: $4,310.83 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $2,882.53 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +73.19

Gold began the week on the offer, slipping to test the $5,000 zone in overseas trading, as dollar, inflation, and deleveraging dynamics eclipse ongoing haven interest. Last week, the yellow metal posted its first lower weekly close since the week ended 30-Jan.



Besides the war in the Middle East, there are plenty of other uncertainties that suggest the downside in gold is probably limited. The approach of $5,000 attracted some buying interest, with the 20-day MA continuing to generally hold on a close basis.

North American investors were big sellers of ETFs last week, accounting for 33.8 tonnes of outflows. However, investors in other regions took advantage of last week's initial price drop, adding to holdings. Asian investors bought 10.3 tonnes. Nonetheless, the -20.3 tonne net was the largest weekly outflow since May.

  

Today's overseas low at $5,016.24 reinforces the $5,000.00/$4,997.76 support level. Penetration of the latter would return focus to the rising 50-day MA at $4,881.85 and the more important 17-Feb low at $4,847.74.

If gold can hold above $5,000, further tests above $5,200 become likely. Penetration of $5,206.10 (4-Mar high) would bode well for additional retracement to $5,249.54 (24-Feb high), with potential back to last week's high at $5,418.84.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$1.321 (-1.56%)
5-Day Change: -$5.685 (-6.36%)
YTD Range: $64.140 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +158.49

Silver has recovered from the intraday drop below $80 to trade higher on the day, but inflation concerns, less dovish Fed expectations, and mounting worries about the overvaluation of tech/AI shares are seen as headwinds. The white metal remains quite volatile in the lower half of the broad $121.63/$64.140 range.



AI is extraordinarily energy-intensive, so the surge in energy costs assuredly has the finance teams doing some recalculating. Additionally, the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates could slow planned capex spending, impacting industrial demand for silver, copper, and a host of other commodities.

Today's intraday low at $79.767 lends significance to the $80 zone, providing a good interevening barrier ahead of last week's low at $78.092. Below the latter, the 61.8% retracement level of the rebound off the $64.140 low comes in at $74.461.

Heightened concerns about recession, and the AI theme will weigh more heavily on silver, so I do expect the white metal to underperform. Further tests above 70 in the gold/silver ratio seem likely.  However, the longer-term outlook for silver remains positive due to the persistent supply deficit, now in its sixth straight year.

If silver can mount a convincing move back above $90, a more favorable tone within the range would be evident. That would shift focus to the 3-Mar high at $91.322 and last week's high at $96.393. Obviously, we're still talking very wide ranges, so volatility will remain high. Keep an eye on the closes this week in relation to the 20- and 50-day moving averages for additional technical clues.  


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold notches its first weekly loss in five, while silver ends the week down nearly 10%

Outside Market Developments: Market uncertainty has intensified ahead of the weekend, driven by a surprisingly weak U.S. jobs report, the escalating Middle East conflict, which is pushing oil prices higher, and stoking inflation fears. This has triggered widespread risk aversion among investors, who are shifting away from equities toward safer assets as stocks decline sharply amid concerns about prolonged economic disruption from geopolitical tensions and rising energy costs.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly declined by 92k jobs in February, far worse than economists' expectations of around +59k. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, versus 4.3% in January. It was the first rise in the jobless rate since November.

Negative back-month revisions were significant once again, totalling -69k for January and December. December flipped from +48k to -17k jobs. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% from +0.3% in January.

Retail sales fell 0.2% in January, on expectations of -0.3%. Consecutive months of tepid retail sales prints are contributing to ongoing concerns about consumer spending resilience in a high-inflation, uncertain environment. The more recent rise in energy prices sets the stage for further retail sales weakness ahead.

I'd expected heightened calls for Fed easing in light of today's data. While U.S. yields end the week on a bit of a bid, Fed funds futures haven't moved much. The next Fed rate cut isn't fully priced until October.

The US-Israel war against Iran is on the verge of entering its second week with no signs of de-escalation. The U.S. intensified strikes on Iranian targets throughout the week, while Israel struck at Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran continued to launch drone and missile attacks across Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, halting nearly all tanker traffic through this critical chokepoint for global oil supplies. Spreading hostilities involving Hezbollah in Lebanon, retaliatory strikes on U.S. bases, and intercepted Iranian missiles near Turkey are raising fears of a broader multi-front war.

Concerns about overvaluation in the AI sector intensified as Oracle and OpenAI shelved plans to expand their flagship Texas data center due to prolonged financing negotiations and OpenAI's shifting computational needs. Meta is reportedly eyeing the site.

This development, combined with a recent Bank of America survey showing 23% of institutional credit investors viewing an "AI bubble" as their top worry, amid massive projected 2026 capex exceeding $700 bln. This is stoking doubts about whether the sector's lofty valuations can hold, adding pressure to the broader market.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$4.05 (-0.08%)
5-Day Change: -$160.91 (-3.05%)
YTD Range: $4,310.83 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $2,882.53 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +78.62

Gold spent the majority of the week in the lower half of the range that was established on Monday and Tuesday. The inability to sustain those initial tests above $5,400 sets up the yellow metal's first lower weekly close in five weeks.



Nonetheless, there are still some encouraging signs: The $5,000 support zone can be considered intact, and gold was unable to register a close below the 20-day moving average. I'm impressed by gold's resilience in the face of 14-week highs in the dollar index.

The escalating Middle East war has shifted some of the haven flows to the dollar. Additionally, stock market losses are probably putting some deleveraging pressure on gold. While these headwinds should not be dismissed, gold remains a key diversifying asset in times of uncertainty.

The midpoint of this week's range at $5,208.30 is reinforced by Monday's high at $5,206.10. Penetration of this area early in the week ahead would ease some of the pressure on the downside and bode well for another run at $5,400.

On the other hand, a breach of Thursday's low at $5,052.57, or a close below the 20-day MA, would shift focus back to $5,000.00/$4,997.76. Below the latter, a minor level at $4,960.86 protects the rising 50-day MA at $4,866.53 and the more important 17-Feb low at $4,847.74.

Persistent geopolitical tensions and global uncertainties from tariffs, sanctions, and policy risks remain broadly supportive for gold. Additional key drivers are strong central bank purchases (de-dollarization), expectations of lower U.S. interest rates, a weaker dollar, and inflation, all of which bode well for an eventual resumption of the long-term uptrend. In the meantime, volatility is expected to remain high.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.052 (+0.06%)
5-Day Change: -$10.079 (-10.75%)
YTD Range: $64.14 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +168.22

Silver is poised for its first lower weekly close in three, weighed by a stronger dollar and revived concerns about tech/Ai sector overvaluation. The white metal has erased the entire 10% gain notched in the previous week, highlighting ongoing volatility.



Today's weak jobs report and weak retail sales print are fostering growth concerns. This may ultimately lead to a more dovish tilt at the Fed, but for now anyway, the central bank remains on hold.

Safe-haven spillover from gold is likely to provide some underpinning, but I do expect silver to underperform in the short to near term. Further tests above 70 in the gold/silver ratio seem likely.

Silver ends the week above the 20-day moving average, but a sustained move back above $90 in the week ahead is needed to call for a move back into the upper half of the broad  $121.630/$64.140 range (above $92.885). That would shift focus to the high from Monday at $96.393. Above that, $100 would be back in play.

For now, further tests below $80 can not be ruled out. Thursday's low at $80.662 provides a modest intervening barrier. More important support is well defined by Thursday's low at $78.092. 


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver recover somewhat after Tuesday's sharp losses

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: The US-Israel war against Iran has entered its fifth day, with intensified airstrikes continuing overnight and into today.  Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that more U.S. forces are on the way to the region, as officials acknowledge the conflict could extend beyond initial projections.

A U.S. Navy fast-attack submarine sank an Iranian Navy frigate in the Indian Ocean off the southern coast of Sri Lanka, marking the first torpedo sinking of an enemy ship by a U.S. submarine since World War II. U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth described it as a "quiet death" for the warship.

The U.S. military has reported six service members killed in action during Operation Epic Fury, primarily from Iranian retaliatory strikes, including a drone attack on a facility in Kuwait. Israeli casualties from Iranian retaliatory missile and drone strikes stand at at least 11 civilians, with hundreds injured and no confirmed IDF military fatalities reported so far. Iranian state media reports over 1,000 deaths from strikes, and losses from the torpedoed frigate could be over 200.

President Trump is not ruling out deploying ground forces, although he doesn't believe it will be necessary. ‘There will be no boots on the ground.’ I don’t say it," adding that he believes troops "probably don’t need" to be sent but would consider it "if they were necessary."

Oil prices have surged sharply due to the effective halt of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and fears of prolonged supply disruptions. Brent crude was up much as 16% for the week in early trading, reaching levels last seen in July 2024. Continued upward pressure is likely amid the ongoing conflict and threats to regional exports.

Higher energy prices will boost inflation, which prompted the trade to pared expectations for two Fed rate cuts this year, pushing the dollar index 14-week highs. The next 25 bps rate cut is now not fully priced until October. Fed funds futures imply 41 bps of total easing for the remainder of the year.

Today's U.S. economic releases showed mixed but generally softer labor market signals amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. While the war may soften interest in domestic fundamentals in the short-term, the market will still be paying attention to Friday's jobs report. Consensus for February nonfarm payrolls is +59k. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.3%.

Risk appetite has rebounded as investors increasingly look past the war to focus on hopes for potential de-escalation. 
The New York Times reported that Iran's Ministry of Intelligence made contact with the CIA through another country's spy agency, offering to discuss terms for ending the conflict. The U.S. is treating that overture with a significant degree of skeptisism thus far.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$103.75 (+2.04%)
5-Day Change: +$22.28 (+0.43%)
YTD Range: $4,310.83 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $2,882.53 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +82.05

Gold has been quite volatile so far this week. Initial gains on Monday saw five-week highs above $5,400. However, selling interest emerged on Tuesday as rising concerns about oil prices – and broad inflation – weighed on Fed easing expectations. The dollar followed yields higher and gold ended the day down more than 4%.



However, tests below the 20-day moving average could not be sustained and the $5,000 support zone can be considered intact. A modestly more favorable tone is evident midweek as the trade assesses the most recent war developements and the yellow metal is consolidating in the lower half of this week's more than $400 range.

While I do maintain that the underlying fundamentals remain supportive, short to near term conditions are likely to remain quite volatile. Bulls will be quick to take profits on rallies, and look for limited risk opportunities to buy on dips. I'm not catching any longer-term bearish vibes out there, but sellers will absolutely step in when the right opportunity presents itself.

The 20-day MA comes in at $5,068.27 today and remains important on a close basis. The more important level to watch os $5,000/$4,997.76. Below that, a minor level at $4,960.86 protects the convergence of the low from 17-Feb at $4,847.74 and the rising 50-day.

A rise into the upper half of this week's range (so far) above $5,208.30 (reinforced by today's high at $5,206.10) would return a measure of credence to the bullish scenario that favors a retest if the record high at $5,595.02 and a resumption of the dominant uptrend. Additional upside barriers are marked by Tuesday's high at $5,379.89 and Monday's high at $5,418.84.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$4.161 (+5.07%)
5-Day Change: -$3.598 (-4.03%)
YTD Range: $64.140 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +177.12

Silver is consolidating amid broader risk-on sentiment and some degree of optimism that the U.S. and Israel have things well in hand when it comes to Iran. However, Tuesday's sharp drop stemming from inflation fears, expectations for delaying Fed rate cuts, and a stronger dollar, has the bull camp on edge.



The range for the week is more than $18, and it's only Wednesday. That's enough volatility to rattle the nerves of even the most ardent bull.

With the war raging, I do expect gold and the dollar to garner most of the haven interest. That means silver may continue to lag on rallies with scope for ongoing high levels of volatility from war headlines, interest rate and dollar dynamics, and technical action.

That being said, silver remains in a strong bull trend, up a massive 161% YoY, driven by strong supply/demand fundamentals. I'd be inclined to give a little more credence to buying strategies within the broad range, but I would keep a tight rein on risk.

The failure of silver to sustain gains into the upper half of the broad $121.630/$64.140 range is troubling, suggesting further tests below $80 could be in the offing. A short-term close back above $90 would temper that concern somewhat.

Monday's high at $96.393 now provides a key barrier ahead of the next retracement level at $99.699 (61.8%), and perhaps more importantly, $100. Penetration of the latter is needed to return confidence to the underlying uptrend and put the $121.630 record high back in play.

Even as I write this, I realize how far apart some of these levels are. What we are experiencing this year is absolutely unprecedented, and it will take the market (and me) some time to adjust to the profound structural change in the silver market.

Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver are poised for higher weekly and monthly closes amid persistent haven interest

Outside Market Developments: Hotter-than-expected PPI data for January reinforce expectations that the Fed is on hold into H2, weighing on stocks and generally sapping risk appetite. The next 25 bps rate cut is not fully priced until September.

The 0.8% monthly rise in core PPI is particularly concerning as it was well above expectations of +0.3%. Annualized core PPI accelerated to 3.6%, above expectations of 3.0%, versus 3.3% in December.

Initial jobless claims, released on Thursday, revealed a 4k increase to 212k for the week ended 21-Feb. While that was inside expectations of 215k, Block's announcement of massive layoffs (over 40% of its workforce) to pivot toward AI efficiency has amplified worries about workforce disruptions.

The February jobs report, slated for release next Friday, will be a highlight in the week ahead. Median expectations for nonfarm payrolls are +60k, on the heels of January's impressive beat. Although if history is any indication, negative back-month revisions are likely. The jobless rate is expected to hold steady at 4.3%, while the consensus for hourly earnings is +0.3%.

The latest round of Iran nuclear talks in Geneva did not result in any breakthroughs, heightening speculation of imminent U.S. and/or Israeli military action. The U.S. State Department has authorized the voluntary departure of non-critical personnel and family members from the embassy in Israel. Additionally, the USS Ford carrier strike group reportedly arrived on station off the coast of Israel today.

Given evidence of a recurring pattern where Trump acts on Fridays and over weekends, presumably to minimize market impact, tensions are high. "I'd love not to use [the U.S. military to attack Iran], but sometimes you have to," Trump said on Friday.



GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.51 (+0.01%)
5-Day Change: +$132.44 (+2.59%)
YTD Range: $4,310.83 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $2,835.23 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +88.53

Gold continues to retrace late-January/early-February corrective losses and is poised for its fourth consecutive higher weekly close. February will also mark the yellow metal's seventh straight higher monthly close.



According to Dillon Gage, it will be the "longest monthly rally streak in 50 years." BarChart shows a slightly lower close in July '25, which is also reflected in LBMA month-end data. Whether we're talking seven months or eight months, it's been an impressive run.

The World Gold Council released a report this week called, Why gold in 2026? A cross-asset perspective, showing the yellow metal significantly outperformed other major asset classes in 2025 and continues to do so in 2026.

 

"Risk assets are sitting at uneasy highs against a backdrop of a world in turmoil. Yes, there are a host of tailwinds that should support a revival in growth throughout the year, including easier monetary policy and the global fiscal boost. But the consensus narrative of a global economy that has proved “robust” in the face of tariffs and turmoil underestimates the very real risks that remain," according to the WGC.

Friday's upside extension to fresh four-week highs returns additional credence to the underlying uptrend. Sights remain on $5,300 and the 78.6% Fibonacci level at $5.340.72. An eventual breach of the latter would bode well for a push to new all-time highs.

A minor intraday support at $5,214.80 protects $5,200 and the overseas low at $5,132.43. More important support marked by the low for the week at $5,097.57 should help keep the once again rising 20-day moving average at $5,018.60.

The trade is likely to continue focusing on buying into corrective setbacks within the range. At this point, it would probably take material progress toward an Iran deal to temper the haven bid.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$1.704 (+1.93%)
5-Day Change: +$8.362 (+9.89%)
YTD Range: $64.14 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +225.34

Silver posted strong gains on Friday and is up more than 10% on the week, buoyed by ongoing haven interest amid mounting risk of military action against Iran, and signs of persistently sticky inflation. The white metal is poised for a second straight higher weekly close and its tenth consecutive higher monthly close.



Despite the stunning near halving of the price early in the month, conviction in the underlying uptrend seems to be growing, amid industrial demand tailwinds and ongoing supply tightness narratives. Silver moved back into the upper half of the massive $121.63/$64.14 range on Friday, trading at levels not seen since the plunge on 30-Jan.

While conditions are likely to remain quite volatile, the latest round of gains bolsters confidence in the scenario that calls for a return to the $99.669/$100 zone. The 20-day moving average will rotate higher for the first time since 4-Feb. If the 20-day can climb back above the 50-day in early March, it will provide additional encouragement to the bull camp.

Initial support is marked by an intraday low at $92.409. Below that, $92.000 and 91.602 should help keep the $90 level protected. A failure to sustain gains would suggest scope for further choppy consolidation within the range.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.