Good morning. The precious metals are sharply higher in early U.S. trading.
U.S. calendar features Balance of Trade, Initial Jobless Claims, Q3 Productivity and ULC (final), Factory Orders, Fed Balance Sheet.
Gold surges to new all-time highs, as silver takes a pause
Outside Market Developments: Focus today is on the Fed decision. While the central bank is widely expected to hold steady, the trade will still try to glean insight into future moves from the policy statement and Powell's presser.
Fed funds futures suggest the Fed may be on hold into H2, amid resilient growth and sticky inflation that remains above target. The next rate cut isn't fully priced until September.
Although unlikely to be mentioned today, there is still considerable concern about Fed independence. President Trump wil have the opportunity to replace Powell as chairman when his term ends in May.
BlackRock's Chief Investment Officer, Rick Rieder, lept passed "the Kevins" (Warsh and Hassett) as the new favorite to take over the helm of the Fed. Rieder has advocated for more aggressive rate cuts to get to a neutral Fed funds rate of 3%.
The market remains tilted toward risk-on, bolstered by persistent enthusiasm for tech and AI. Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla report earnings after the close today.
The potential for another partial U.S. government shutdown remains high as funding for several key agencies, including the Department of Homeland Security, expires at midnight on Friday. Senate Democrats have vowed to block that funding amid opposition to DHS/ICE deportation actions, including the recent shootings.
Shut-down risks are contributing to recent pressure on the dollar. Recent central bank jawboning and "rate checks" also weighed on the greenback. However, Treasury Secretary Bessent said on CNBC this morning that the U.S. is "absolutely not" intervening in the currency market to support the Japanese yen.
The dollar index tumbled to four-year lows on Tuesday. The breach of last year's low at 96.22 reestablishes the dominant downtrend in the greenback. While the DX is trading modestly higher within Tuesday's range today on Bessent's comments, the technical damage has been done. 
Scope is seen for a short-term test of the 95.09/00 level. Below that, a secondary retracement level at 94.67 would be in play.
MBA Mortgage Market Index fell 33.9 points to 363.30 in the week ended 23-Jan, versus 397.20 in the previous week. The 30-year mortgage rate rebounded to 6.24% from 6.16% in the previous week.
GOLD
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$80.50 (+1.55%)
5-Day Change: +$469.35 (+9.71%)
YTD Range: $4,310.83 - $5,311.38
52-Week Range: $2,745.87 - $5,311.38
Weighted Alpha: +100.25
Gold set new all-time highs for the eighth consecutive session, buoyed by relentless haven demand. While the dollar firmed today after Bessent's comments on intervention, yesterday's breach of key support should continue to provide a tailwind for the yellow metal.
Gold is outperforming silver today and is up nearly 10% over the last five sessions. Additionally, weighted alpha has cracked the 100 threshold for the first time in my memory. Upside momentum seems likely to carry the day, even as the market becomes increasingly overbought.
That overbought condition may lead to a corrective pullback, but at this point, the trade is disinclined to try to pick a top. They continue to view short-term setbacks as buying opportunities.
With Fibonacci objectives at $5,180.79 and $5,268.49 satisfied and exceeded, focus now shifts to the $5,400 psycholical barrier. Above the latter, additional b-g-round-numbers at $5,500 and $5,600 stand in front of the next Fibonacci level, which comes in at $5,674.97.
On the downside, intraday support at $5,242.07/41.12 protects today's Asian low at $5,157.93. Below that, congestion around $5,100 should help keep the more important $5,000 level at bay.
SILVER
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.413 (+0.37%)
5-Day Change: +$18.332 (+19.69%)
YTD Range: $71.429 - $117.705
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $117.705
Weighted Alpha: +343.64
Silver is taking a bit of a pause, allowing gold to play some catch-up. While the last record high was set on Monday, the white metal is still up nearly 20% over the past week!
The gold/silver ratio has stabilized somewhat after testing below 44 on Monday, a level not seen since August of 2011. That being said, there's nothing to suggest at this point that a low is in place. With more than 78.6% of the entire rally from 31.707 (Apr'11 low) to 126.433 (Mar'20 high), potential is in fact all the way back to that low.
Several more sessions of congestion in silver would go a long way toward calming the market. Maybe that's too much to ask for at this point.
The CME is raising margin rates once again from 9% to 11% for hedges, and 12.1% for spec trades. The CME is also attempting to address the market access issue by launching a 100-ounce silver contract.
Today's Asian high at $116.092 now provides an intervening barrier ahead of Monday's recod high at $117.705. Beyond the latter, psychological barriers at $118, $119, $120, etc protect the next Fibonacci projection at $128.721.
Today's earlier U.S. low at $110.582 protects the $110.00 zone. Below that more important supports are found at $105.086, $103.437, and $102.445.
Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com
Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.
Gold and silver continued their marches higher on haven interest and weaker dollar
OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Market focus this week is on the two-day FOMC meeting that begins on Tuesday. The Fed is widely expected to be on hold, amid signs of a resilient economy and sticky, but stable inflation.
The trade is no longer pricing 50 bps of additional easing in 2026. Futures imply a Fed funds rate of 3.1975% at year-end, or 42.75 bps of easing. The next 25 bps cut is not fully priced until September.
The unrelenting safe-haven-driven rally in the precious metals is going to be another highlight this week. Gold, silver, and platinum all start the week at record levels.
Precious metals are attracting haven demand as relations between the U.S. and NATO allies continue to deteriorate over President Trump’s desire for Greenland. Trump is also threatening 100% tariffs on Canadian imports after the Carney government agreed to a limited trade deal with China. Concerns about Fed independence persist as well.
The dollar index gapped lower on the open, reaching levels not seen since mid-September. The Fed was reportedly checking the USD-JPY rates late last week, suggesting that U.S. and Japanese policymakers were coordinating to stem recent yen losses, raising the risk of direct intervention.
GOLD
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$102.37 (+2.05%)
5-Day Change: +$401.71 (+8.60%)
YTD Range: $4310.83 - $5,110.24
52-Week Range: $2,732.23 - $5,110.24
Weighted Alpha: +88.58
Gold exceeded the $5,000 target in overseas trading, spurred by strong safe-haven demand, a weak dollar, and another dramatic surge in silver. If sustainable, today would mark the sixth straight daily gain.
Focus later in the week will be on the Fed policy announcement on Wednesday. A hold is widely anticipated. Perhaps only an exceptionally hawkish statement, suggesting the next move could be a hike, would be sufficient to trigger a much-needed correction in gold. That seems unlikely.
Gold-backed ETFs continue to attract investor interest. The ETFs saw inflows of 34.5 tonnes in the week ended 23-Jan. All regions were net buyers, but Asian investors led the charge last week. It was the twelfth straight weekly inflow.
The push above $5,000 shifted focus to the $5,180.79 Fibonacci objective. If this level also gives way, $5,200 and the next Fibonacci level at $5,268.49 would be in play. While the market remains quite overextended and vulnerable to correction, the trade seems inclined to remain focused on buying strategies.
On the downside, intraday support at $5,055.20/53.21 protects the more important $4,990.67/66 level. Secondary support is marked by Friday's low at $4,900.53.
SILVER
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$6.071 (+5.88%)
5-Day Change: +$14.717 (+15.60%)
YTD Range: $71.429 - $110.874
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $110.874
Weighted Alpha: +330.85
Silver surged dramatically right from the open, notching new all-time highs above $110. During the U.S. session, the white metal traded with a 170-handle before selling pressures surfaced.
One might argue that this market has become detached from reality, but one could also say that this is a market that is repricing reality after five years of supply deficits. The market accelerated dramatically to the upside after China imposed export controls at the start of the new year.
So, where is the price reality? Industrial users are already thrifting as best they can. Average silver loadings for photovoltaic cells, for example, were reportedly reduced 20% in 2024 alone. Further cuts likely occurred in 2025. However, because of silver's unique properties, substitution is not expected to make a meaningful dent in demand.
Even with today's more than $6 retreat from the highs, the white metal is still up nearly 6% today. The midpoint of today's massive $14 range is at $110.542. Despite the magnitude of the sell-off, I can't say with any degree of certainty that even a short-term high is in place. A lower close (below $103.419) would be a little more telling from a technical perspective.
Today's Asian low at $103.379 protects the $100 zone. More substantial support is marked by Friday's low at $96.184.
A close above $112 would be suggestive of further strength. Another round of new highs above $117.705 would favor a push to $120, with potential to the next tier of Fibonacci resistance at $128.721.
Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com
Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.
Gold nears $5,000, as silver surges above $100
Outside Market Developments: This week delivered a classic dose of market whiplash: early geopolitical jitters sparked by President Trump's aggressive push on Greenland and related tariff threats drove risk aversion before a swift de-escalation triggered a sharp two-day risk-on rally. Heading into the weekend, U.S. shares are little changed, but there's still enough uncertainty out there to keep safe-haven assets underpinned.
U.S. economic data this week were generally favorable, showing economic resilience and sticky, but steady inflation. BEA revised Q3'25 GDP to 4.4% y/y. Headline and core PCE inflation held around 2.8% y/y. Solid disposable income gains led to a 0.5% rise in consumer spending in November. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for January was revised up to a five-month high of 56.4.
Strength in the economy eroded dovish Fed bets in advance of next week's FOMC meeting. Fed funds futures are no longer pricing 50 bps of easing this year. The next 25 bps cut has been pushed to September.
The hawkish tilt hasn't done much to underpin the greenback. The dollar index tumbled to a 16-week low, returning considerable credence to the underlying downtrend as mounting worries about the unpredictability of the Trump administration stoked the "sell-America" trade.
The BoJ held its policy rate steady at 0.75% in a widely expected decision. The vote was 8-1 with one hawkish dissenter. Governor Ueda signaled readiness to monitor the rapid rise in JGB yields amid the snap election backdrop, though no immediate further tightening was indicated.
Japanese PM Takaichi dissolved the lower house of parliament on Friday in advance of a snap general election on 8-Feb, just three months after she became Japan's first female premier. Takaichi, a hard-line conservative, called for an early vote in hopes of leveraging her personal popularity to seek a fresh public mandate for her leadership and policies on economic revival, inflation control, defense enhancements, and security issues.
Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) experienced significant volatility this week, with long-end yields surging to record highs early on (40-year yield hitting over 4.2% and the 30-year above 3.9%) amid fiscal concerns from Prime Minister Takaichi's snap election announcement and proposed tax cuts/spending increases, before partially rebounding later in the week as the Bank of Japan held rates steady at 0.75% and signaled readiness to intervene if needed.
The yen fell to an 18-month low against the dollar last week, weighed by mounting fiscal worries. However, the yen jumped to two-week highs following the BoJ policy decision, spurred by heightened worries about intervention.
The WEF summit in Davos wraps up after a week of talks covering a wide range of global challenges like economic growth, geopolitics, technology, people, and the planet, while producing reports, fostering initiatives, and building trust across stakeholders. President Trump's assertive rhetoric on trade, Greenland, and alliances seemed to dominate discussions.
Additionally, leaders emphasized the urgent need to shift toward responsible AI deployment and execution, while addressing economic concerns like 3.3% global growth forecasts tempered by trade frictions, debt risks, asset bubbles, and the imperative to unlock new growth and energy sources.
GOLD
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$13.42 (-0.27%)
5-Day Change: +$345.80 (+7.52%)
YTD Range: $4,310.83 - $4,967.13
52-Week Range: $2,732.23 - $4,967.13
Weighted Alpha: +84.73
Gold reached record levels every day this week, moving within striking distance of $5,000 on Friday. The yellow metal is on track for its third straight higher weekly close of the year.
Safe-haven demand remains robust, driven by a myriad of geopolitical and trade tensions; the kerfuffle over Greenland is just the latest. Mounting worries about another U.S. government shutdown, and the deteriorating fiscal condition are adding weight to the dollar's sell-off and stoking the bid in gold.
Japan's fiscal condition is another source of concern, driving flight to quality. Takaichi's bid to consolidate power with a snap election is far from being a certainty.
According to the World Gold Council, the PBoC "announced gold purchases every month in 2025, ending the year with a 27t addition and pushing China’s official gold holdings to 2,306t, 8.5% of total reserves." However, that only ranks fourth in terms of the biggest addition to reserves last year. The National Bank of Poland ranks number one with 95 tonnes. The National Bank of Kazakhstan (49 tonnes) and Banco Central do Brasil (43 tonnes) also bought more gold.
China’s "official" gold holdings now stand at 2,306 tonnes, 8.5% of total reserves. Many believe them to be much higher.
The holdings of Chinese ETFs doubled in 2025 to 248 tonnes, and AUM surged 248%. Meanwhile, volume on the Shanghai Futures Exchange reached record levels.
The Reserve Bank of India slowed its gold buying in 2025 amid record-high prices, but domestic demand remained resilient, supported by investment demand. Inflows into Indian ETFs were "unprecedented," according to the WGC, while digital gold continues to gain popularity.
The key $4993.96/$5,000 came within striking distance on Friday before profit-taking emerged. A true test of this level is still considered likely, and penetration would shift focus to the next Fibonacci projections at $5,180.79 and $5,268.49.
Friday's intraday low at 4,900.53 marks first support. A minor level at $4,887.59 protects daily lows from the week at $4,773.50, $4,757.50, and $4,660.05. The low for the week set on Monday is well protected at $4,599.09, and the rising 20-day moving average is at $4,562.15.
SILVER
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$2.817 (+2.93%)
5-Day Change: +$9.603 (+10.65%)
YTD Range: $71.429 - $99.781
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $99.781
Weighted Alpha: +294.65
Silver remains quite volatile, but the bias remains unquestionably bullish. The white metal posted new all-time highs in four of five sessions this week, surging above $100 and $101 on Friday. Silver will notch its third straight higher weekly close and is up more than 40% since the first of the year!
The realities of supply and demand, desire for safe havens, a weak dollar, and good ol' FOMO continue to stoke the bid. Weighted alpha is above 300, reflecting unprecedented momentum.
There's not much on the upside until the next Fibonacci projections at $111.965 and $112.646. Can we get there without some kind of meaningful correction or period of consolidation? Nothing would surprise me at this point, but you still need to be prepared for extreme volatility.
Minor intraday support at $100.475 protects the $100 zone. Today's U.S. low at $98.650 is a more substantial barrier ahead of the low for the day at $96.184.
Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com
Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.
Good morning. The precious metals are mostly higher in early U.S. trading.
U.S. calendar features S&P Global Flash PMIs, Michigan Consumer Sentiment (final).
Gold reached a fresh record high before simmering tensions over Greenland ebbed somewhat
OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: President Trump's highly anticipated speech at the WEF in Davos is moving markets today. While Trump's comments certainly stoked the anger of many, he explicitly ruled out using military force to acquire Greenland.
Additionally, the President announced via Truth Social that the U.S. will not impose additional tariffs on Europe after "a very productive meeting" with Mark Rutte, Secretary General of NATO, in which they formed "the framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland and, in fact, the entire Arctic Region." We have not seen any specifics on the "framework" at this point, and Rutte has not commented publicly yet, but you can bet the press corps is after him.
Markets have swung decisively back to risk-on. A significant portion of yesterday's "sell-America" trade has been unwound today.
Adding to Tuesday's market turmoil was a rout in Japanese Government Bonds that caused long yields to surge to record highs. Investors fled Japanese debt amid fears over PM Takaichi's call for a snap election, and proposed fiscal stimulus, including a two-year suspension of the 8% consumption tax on food, which could worsen Japan's already massive debt burden.
Japanese markets calmed somewhat today, but 40-year yields remain above 4%, a handle that had never been seen before Monday. Volatility is likely to remain high ahead of the February 8 election.
Speaking in Davos, Ken Griffin, the founder and CEO of Citadel, warned that "the bond vigilantes are back" and could "come out and extract their price" if fiscal irresponsibility continues. Japan seems to be in the crosshairs currently, but the U.S. could be a ripe target too if we don't start making some inroads toward improving our fiscal situation.
While the U.S. economy remains resilient, there's plenty to be concerned about. The U.S. national debt is expected to exceed the $40 trillion threshold sometime this year, an ever-increasing drag on growth. Add to that the looming threat of another government shutdown, concerns about Fed independence, and a continuation of the macro de-dollarization trend seems likely.
MBA Mortgage Market Index jumped 14.1% in the week ended 16-Jan, versus +28.5% in the previous week. The 30-year mortgage rate dipped to a 16-month low of 6.16%, versus 6.18% in the previous week.
NAR Pending Home Sales fell 9.3% in December, well below expectations of -0.3%, versus +3.3% in November. The decline ended a four-month streak of gains and marked the steepest drop since April 2020 during the pandemic. “[T]he decline in pending home sales could be a result of dampened consumer enthusiasm about buying a home when there are so few options listed for sale,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.
Construction Spending rose 0.5% in October, above expectations of +0.1%, versus -0.6% in September.
GOLD
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$103.46 (+2.17%)
5-Day Change: +$219.13 (+4.74%)
YTD Range: $4310.83 - $4,887.59
52-Week Range: $2,732.23 - $4,887.59
Weighted Alpha: +79.85
Gold extended to a new record high of $4,887.59 in overseas trading on Wednesday amid ongoing safe-haven demand in advance of President Trump's speech in Davos. While I would hardly call his comments "calming," the assurance that Greenland would not be taken by force and the walking back of tariff threats eased tensions enough to knock the yellow metal off its highs. Nonetheless, gold is on track for a third straight higher close.
The breach of the $4,800 target and the approach to $4,900 bolsters confidence in the bullish scenario that calls for the attainment of the long-standing $5,000 objective, which happens to correspond closely with the next Fibonacci level at $4,993.96. Beyond that, focus would shift to $5,180.79.
With 2026 off to a gangbuster start, it's not surprising to see that gold-backed ETFs saw solid inflows of 35.8 tonnes last week, with 27.2 tonnes attributed to North American investors. It was the eleventh straight weekly inflow and the largest since 17-Oct'25.
Besides the technical overbought condition, there doesn't seem to be much to suggest we're close to a top in gold. While tensions over Greenland seem to have abated, there are still plenty of geopolitical hotspots to worry about. As noted above, the de-dollarization trade could gain traction amid concerns about another potential government shutdown and a politicized Fed. Meanwhile, the Fed is still expected to ease this year, perhaps as much as 50 bps, and the global central banks' buying spree is likely to continue.
The low for the day at $4,757.50 looks to be well protected heading into the close. This level protects lows from earlier in the week at $4,660.05 and $4,599.09.
SILVER
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.183 (+0.19%)
5-Day Change: +$0.155 (+0.17%)
YTD Range: $71.429 - $95.865
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $95.865
Weighted Alpha: +261.31
Silver was largely corrective on Wednesday, retracing from Tuesday's record high at $95.865 and registering its first lower close of the week. However, losses continue to be viewed as corrective and stalled shy of the $90 support zone. By the close, the white metal was nearly 3% off the intraday low as volatile conditions persisted.
Concerns about that volatility and profit taking ahead of the holiday weekend resulted in net outflows from SLV last week of $686.41M, or approximately 7.61 Moz. A sustained correction or period of consolidation would likely draw those investors back in, but it could just as easily be another bout of FOMO if the rally continues.
The next upside target is $96.571 based on a Fibonacci projection. Above that, $100 is very much in play.
Today's low at $90.446 bolsters the significance of the whole $90 zone. Below that, I'd be watching $86.439 and the rising 20-day MA at $82.970.
Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com
Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.
