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Haven demand drives gold to record highs above $3,200, silver follows to regain $32

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: The trade war between China and the U.S. continues to escalate. Beijing raised retaliatory tariffs on all U.S. goods to 125%.

President Trump lifted tariffs on Chinese goods to 125% on Wednesday, but that's on top of 20% fentanyl-related levies already in place. The White House confirmed that tariffs on Chinese goods currently stand at 145%.

Trump paused reciprocal tariffs on other countries for 90 days to provide time for ongoing negotiations. "USTR has informed us that there are maybe 15 countries now that have made explicit offers that we're studying and considering and deciding whether they're good enough to present the president," said White House Economic Advisor Kevin Hassett.

"Everybody wants to come and make a deal, and we're working with a lot of different countries, and it's all going to work out very well," predicted President Trump. Some are sceptical that all these new trade deals can get done in three months, but I believe progress will beget a longer pause if necessary.

Nonetheless, uncertainty prevails, which will continue to roil markets. "In the 129-year history of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the index has closed higher or lower by at least 1,000 points just 31 times. Four of those times happened in the past week," noted CNN.

Global uncertainty and concerns about the Trump administration's tactics have undermined the appeal of U.S. assets. While this week's Treasury auctions were fairly well received, the 10-year yield surged to eight-week highs above 4.5% amid evidence that foreign holders of U.S. debt are accelerating their retreat from Treasuries.

FX flows typically follow higher yields, but the dollar index has fallen to three-year lows. Haven interest in the foreign exchange market has shifted to the Swiss franc, yen, and to a lesser degree, the euro.

The franc has reached a 14-year high against the greenback, gaining nearly 8% since the beginning of April. The SNB is under increasing pressure to slow the franc's rise via a rate cut or direct intervention.

While U.S. inflation cooled in March, the needle hasn't moved much in terms of Fed policy expectations. Fed fund futures continue to price 75 bps in easing by year-end, with the first 25 bps cut likely to come in July.

PPI fell 0.4% in March, below expectations of +0.2%, versus a revised +0.1% in February (was unch); 2.7% y/y, down from 3.2% in February. Core -0.1% on expectations of +0.3%, versus +0.1% in February (was -0.1%); 3.3% y/y, versus 3.5% in February.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: +$36.83 (+1.16%)
5-Day Change: +$186.00 (+6.12%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,231.83
52-Week Range: $2,281.97 - $3,231.83
Weighted Alpha: +43.06

Gold marched to new record highs above $3,200, boosted by persistent haven flows and a weaker dollar. With a weekly range of more than $275, I think we can say it's been one heck of a week!



My takeaway is that gold remains the haven asset of choice, and that gets amplified when Treasuries and the dollar fall out of favor. However, those initial deleveraging sell-offs in gold make for a wild ride.

With other countries less inclined to hold dollars and Treasuries as reserve assets, the appeal of gold is heightened. Global central banks have been on a buying spree for nearly two years, and that trend seems likely to accelerate in light of recent events.

The 127.2% retracement level of this week's corrective plunge at $3,219.91 has been exceeded, shifting focus to the next Fibonacci level at $3,290.11. Beyond the latter, $3,300 attracts. Recent price action also lends additional credence to the longer-term target at $3,500.

While the dominant uptrend has fully reasserted itself, I wouldn't be surprised to see some profit-taking ahead of the weekend. Initial support is marked by the early U.S. low at $3,211.77, which protects the low for the day at $3,174.99, and the old record high at $3,264.72. I'd call $3,200.00 a minor downside barrier as well.

Silver is trading back above $32, pulled higher by resurgent gold, the plunge in the dollar, and perhaps some optimism that deals will get worked out with most of our trading partners. The white metal is poised to close higher on the week after initially plunging to a seven-month low on Monday.



Silver is back above the 200- and 100-day moving averages, and nearly 61.8% of the two-week plunge has already been retraced. A breach of $32.259 Fibonacci level would bode well for tests of the 50- and 20-day MAs, which are going to converge around $32.50 early next week. Above the latter, the next tier of Fibonacci resistance is at $33.264.

I have always maintained that gold is the best option for wealth preservation. Silver's volatility over the past two weeks puts an exclamation point on that position! I believe investors will be gun-shy when it comes to silver for some time to come. Caution remains warranted for both the bull and the bear camps.

Given the magnitude of the gains since Monday's low, it seems likely that we'll see some profit taking ahead of today's close. The early U.S. low at $31.267 is the first level of significant intraday support. The low for the day at $31.039 seems well protected, but I guess you really never know with silver these days. 


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold rebounds to approach $3,100, silver back above $31 on tariff pause

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Stocks remain volatile, swinging from the red to solid gains after President Trump announced a 90-day tariff pause for non-retaliating countries on TruthSocial.

China remains squarely in Trump's sights with another retaliatory escalation in response to Beijing's latest retaliation.

Countries like Japan and South Korea are reportedly progressing toward new trade deals. However, the overall trade situation remains fluid and fraught with uncertainty.

Earlier, Trump announced that his next target for tariffs is the pharmaceutical industry to encourage them to relocate manufacturing to America. “They will leave other places because they have to sell—most of their product is sold here, and they’re going to be opening up their plants all over the place in our country,” Trump said during a speech on Tuesday.

[The rest of this segment was written before President Trump's most recent announcement]

Wall Street has noticed that the normal inverse relationship between stocks and Treasuries may be breaking down. When stocks sell off, investors typically rotate to bonds as a haven, pushing yields lower and stoking investment.

The market will be closely watching today's $39 bln 10-year auction with particular interest in gauging foreign demand. There is also a $22 bln 30-year auction tomorrow.

Mounting trade angst is likely inversely impacting foreign demand for our bonds. There have been reports of foreign selling over the past week, suggesting this week's auctions may not be well-received.

Tensions are arguably highest with China, the second-largest holder of U.S. Treasuries ($760.8 billion as of January). Japan and the UK are number one and two.

With interest rates unnaturally rising in tandem with growth risks, recession becomes increasingly likely. JPM CEO Jamie Dimon believes ongoing trade turmoil does indeed make recession a likely outcome.

“Take a deep breath, negotiate some trade deals. That’s the best thing they can do,” said Dimon on CNBC. “But I think it could get worse if we don’t make some progress here,” he added.

Treasury Secretary Besset dismissed the sell-off in bonds as "normal deleveraging," but the market is not convinced. Haven seekers also seem to be eschewing the dollar in favor of the yen and Swiss franc.

The dollar index fell to a new low for the week in earlier trade before rebounding into the range. A six-month low was set last week at 101.27.

That leaves few safe haven options amidst the past week of market turmoil. See the gold comment below...

MBA Mortgage Applications surged 20% in the 04-Apr week, versus a decline of 1.6% in the previous weeks. Both purchases and refis jumped as the 30-year mortgage rate slipped to 6.61% from 6.70%.

Wholesale Sales surged 2.4% in February, well above expectations of +0.8%, versus -0.9% in January (was -1.3%). Inventories rose 0.3% in line with expectations, versus a 0.8% rise in January.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: +$62.01 (+2.08%)
5-Day Change: -$48.57 (-1.55%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,164.72
52-Week Range: $2,281.97 - $3,164.72
Weighted Alpha: +34.68

Gold surged to new highs for the week as the U.S. and China traded retaliatory strikes on the trade front. At one point, the yellow metal was up more than $100 and on the verge of regaining the $3,100 level.



The subsequently announced tariff pause spurred risk appetite and knocked gold off the intraday highs, but the market remains sharply higher on the day. With Treasuries and the dollar suddenly seen as less desirable havens, the appeal of the yellow metal has intensified.

The tariff pause allows for a deleveraging reprieve, removing a significant downside risk. However, Trump giveth and Trump taketh away. Who knows what this afternoon and tomorrow might bring?

With more than 61.8% of the recent decline now retraced, and gold back above the 20-day MA, a measure of confidence has been returned to the underlying uptrend. Under normal circumstances, I'd believe the corrective low is in place at $2,961.83. These are not normal times, so ongoing caution is advised.

Today's high at $3,092.59 now protects the next tier of Fibonacci resistance at $3,121.30 (78.6% retrace of the decline from $3,164.72 to $2,961.83). A retest of last week's record high at $3,164.72 is looking increasingly likely.

Watch the 20-day MA at $3,043.54 on a close basis. This level is bolstered by an intraday chart point at $3,040.05. A move back below $3,000 now would dishearten the bull camp.

Silver is setting new highs for the week, buoyed by risk-on sentiment stemming from the tariff pause. The white metal had already been tracking higher today, helped by strong safe-haven gains in gold.



Yesterday, I wrote that it was hard to look at the silver chart and not be bearish. Adding, "Sometimes that's the time to buy." With silver up more than 3% today, I wish I had!

I don't think this market is out of the woods yet, by any stretch. However, I am curious to see where we close relative to the 200-day moving average ($30.903) today. The 100-day MA is at $31.435, penetration of which would at least give the spec sellers some pause.

Silver swung from a five-month high of $34.543 to an eight-month low of $28.565 in just three weeks. A plunge of nearly $6 (17.3%) is enough to rattle the most ardent of silver bugs. I worry investors won't be back anytime soon.

First support is marked by a minor intraday chart level at $30.201. A retreat below $30 from here would keep focus squarely on the downside.

If you are a dealer, a refiner, or any business with physical precious metals in the vault, volatility like we've experienced recently can be very stressful. At Zaner Metals, we provide risk management solutions that help your business thrive even in the most uncertain of times. Call or email for details.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

4/8/2025

Gold upticks above $3,000 and silver tests above $30 are met with selling interest

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: China is refusing to kowtow to what it calls U.S. "blackmail" on trade, vowing to "fight to the end."  This comes in the wake of President Trump's threat to impose additional 50% tariffs on Chinese goods in retaliation for China raising its levies on U.S. goods.

Such rhetoric and actions are indicative of an intensifying trade war that is stoking worries about inflation and a global economic slowdown.

China also ramped up export controls on rare earths, threatening the technology supply chain. China accounts for roughly 60% of global rare earths production, essential components in data center storage systems, networking equipment, and semiconductors.

The EU Commission has proposed 25% retaliatory tariffs on some U.S. goods. Meanwhile, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has proposed a "zero-for-zero" tariff deal for industrial goods. That there are ongoing negotiations amid the retaliatory threats is somewhat encouraging.

Trump clearly telegraphed his intentions to deploy tariffs as a means to reduce the trade deficit and to be used as a cudgel in advancing a number of his administration's priorities. Yet markets seemed to have been caught completely off guard.

Uncertainty and panic prevailed over the previous three sessions. While U.S. shares are recovering today, investor confidence has been shattered, so this may just be the eye of the hurricane.

Fed funds futures continue to price in at least three 25-bps rate cuts this year. The first is likely to come in June or July, but the Fed is in a bit of a bind as tariffs have boosted both price and growth risks.

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 3.3 points to a five-month low of 97.4 in March, below expectations of 101.3, versus 100.7 in February. "The implementation of new policy priorities has heightened the level of uncertainty among small business owners over the past few months," said NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg. "Small business owners have scaled back expectations of sales growth as they better understand how these rearrangements might impact them," he added.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: +$25.38 (+0.85%)
5-Day Change: -$104.94 (-3.37%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,3,164.72
52-Week Range: $2,281.97 - $3,164.72
Weighted Alpha: +30.21

Gold was unable to sustain earlier tests above $3,000, and a more defensive intraday tone has emerged. While deleveraging pressure ebbed with stocks rebound, risk appetite is likely to remain subdued amid ongoing uncertainty. The market is worried there are more shoes to drop.



A rebound above the halfway back point of the decline from last week's record high is needed to return confidence to the underlying uptrend. That retracement level comes in at $3,063.27. Intervening barriers are noted at $3,017.52 (today's earlier high), $3,042.33 (Monday's U.S. high),  and $3,049.78 (Monday's London high).

The greenback remains generally weak, with the dollar index having fallen to a six-month low last week. Ongoing concerns about a recession and the attendant rise in rate cut expectations should limit the upside in the dollar and help underpin gold.

On the downside, today's Asian low at $2,979.73 protects yesterday's four-week low at $2,961.83. Below the latter, watch the 50-day moving average at $2,947.66 and the $2,926.55 Fibonacci level (38.2% retracement of the rally from $2,541.25 to $3,164.72).

Silver is consolidating within yesterday's broad range, but the downside for the industrial metal remains vulnerable in the face of mounting fears of a full-blown trade war, demand destruction, and recession. While the white metal is still higher on the week, that condition is tenuous at best.


Tests back above $30 have been lackluster thus far, suggesting the rout may not be over. The plunge to seven-month lows below $28.783 on Monday and negation of all the important moving averages since Thursday are pretty bearish technical harbingers.

The inability of gold to sustain gains above $3,000 further emboldens the bear camp. Fresh intraday lows shift attention to the halfway back point of yesterday's rebound at $29.653. A breach of this level would suggest further tests below $29 are in the offing. Friday's low at $29.341 provides a minor intervening barrier.

Today's earlier high at $30.486 now protects yesterday's high at $30.74. Above that, the 100-day MA at $31.439 must be cleared (ideally on a close basis) to suggest potential for a rebound above $32.00.

It's hard to look at that chart and not be bearish. Sometimes that's the time to buy. While I'm inclined to be cautious in light of the recent volatility, I give the edge to the bear camp. 


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold falls to new lows for the week as stock plunge triggers more deleveraging 

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Stock market losses are mounting amid increased concerns that a global trade war is underway. Shares had their worst day since the pandemic on Thursday and are under heavy pressure again.

The DJIA is down more than 1,500 points today. The S&P and NASDAQ are off more than 4%, with the latter poised to close in bear market territory.

China announced it will impose 34% tariffs on U.S. imports, mirroring the levies President Trump imposed this week. Canadian PM Carney said he would match Trump’s 25% auto tariffs.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the EU is preparing to "take firm countermeasures." French President Macron has suggested freezing investment in America. However, Bloomberg reports that negotiations between the EU and the U.S. to lower tariffs are underway.

Despite claims by his aides to the contrary, President Trump appears to be open to negotiations. "Tariffs give us great powers to negotiate," Trump said.

Trump posted on TruthSocial that he had a very productive call with To Lam, General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, "who told me that Vietnam wants to cut their Tariffs down to ZERO if they are able to make an agreement with the U.S." If that happens, presumably the U.S. would remove tariffs on Vietnam.

The President also took a swipe at the Fed Chair via TruthSocial for always being late. "This would be a PERFECT time for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to cut Interest Rates," wrote Trump.

Powell warned that the economic effects of tariffs are likely to include "higher inflation and slower growth” at a conference for business journalists. “While tariffs are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation, it is also possible that the effects could be more persistent,” he said.

Do to the recent turmoil, the market is increasingly leaning toward a June rate cut. Fed funds futures are now pricing in 105 bps in cuts by year-end, implying four 25 bps cuts in H2.

Stronger-than-expected job gains in March did little to brighten the mood on Wall Street. The jobless rate ticked up to 4.2%.

Nonfarm Payrolls climbed 228k in March, above expectations of 110k, versus a negative revised 117k in February (was 151k). The unemployment rate edged up to 4.2% from 4.1% in February. Hourly earnings were in line with expectations at +0.3%. The average workweek ticked up to 34.2 hours.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: -$3.29 (-0.11%)
5-Day Change: -$1.77 (-0.06%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,164.72
52-Week Range: $2,270.21 - $3,164.72
Weighted Alpha: +35.74

Gold fell to new lows for the week as plunging equities revived deleveraging pressures. The yellow metal is lower for a second straight session and is poised for its first lower weekly close in five, but last week's low doesn't seem to be in immediate jeopardy.



The 20-day moving average at $3,028.49 was slightly penetrated, but Fibonacci support at $3,017.62 (23.6% retracement of the rally from $2,541.42 to $3,164.72) has contained the downside thus far.

Key support is well defined at $3,003.62/$3,000.00. If this level gives way, risk would be to the 50-day MA at $2,938.01. This level corresponds closely with the 38.2% retracement level of the aforementioned rally at $2,926.62.

The halfway back point of this week's decline is at $3,092.84 and must be regained to return some confidence to the dominant uptrend. A breach of today's overseas high at $3,130.62 would clear the way for a run at the record high set on Thursday at $3,164.72.

Any indication that stocks have found a bottom would help the bullish cause for gold. At that point, deleveraging pressures would ebb, and haven flows into the yellow metal would resume.

Silver extended to the downside to trade below $30 for the first time since late January, amid ongoing tariff turmoil, rising concerns about a trade war, and global growth risks. The white metal is poised for its biggest weekly percentage decline since the 21-Sep'20 week.



That's a gruesome-looking chart if you're a bull. Gains stalled shy of last October's high, and now more than 78.6% of this year's rally has been retraced. All the key moving averages have been violated.

Silver is a small, thinly traded market known for its volatility, but this week's action is rather extraordinary. Investors are going to be gun-shy for some time to come.

The small double bottom from December at $28.802/783 is the next significant support. If this level also gives way, focus would shift to the $28.00 zone and the September lows at $27.739/732.

I think silver needs to rebound above $32 to revive interest in the upside. Look for short-term conditions to remain volatile as markets come to terms with the new trade regime.

If you have physical silver in the vault, I'd be pleased to talk to you about our hedging services. The horse is out of the barn on this one, but be assured, this is not the last double-digit percentage decline we'll see in silver. Protect your margins with ZMhedge.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Good morning. The precious metals are lower in early U.S. trading.

U.S. calendar features Nonfarm Payrolls.

FedSpeak due from Powell, Barr,  & Waller.