Zaner Precious Metals Commentary
Friday, October 2, 2026Gold and silver fail to sustain initial gains triggered by the NFP miss
Outside Market Developments: U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by a disappointing 29k in September, well below the consensus estimate of +90k. Backmonth revisions totaled -60k.
Healthcare and social assistance added roughly 43k jobs, meaning that without this single, publicly funded sector, total private-sector payrolls actually contracted. This underscores how narrowly based and vulnerable the broader labor market may be.
The unemployment rate edged up to 4.2% from 4.1%. Average hourly earnings rose just 0.1% on expectations of +0.3%; +3.0% y/y, versus expectations of +3.1%.
Today’s much weaker-than-expected jobs report dampens the labor market optimism that emerged just a month ago, and tamps down recent hawkish Fed leanings. Fed funds futures reflect further erosion of October rate hike expectations, now at 20.5%, versus 24.4% yesterday and 64.2% a month ago. Implied tightening for the remainder of the year stands at 20 bps.
Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar have pulled back from recent multi-decade and 18-month highs, respectively. Longer term, their direction will hinge on whether subsequent data confirm a sustained cooling in the labor market and inflation, or if resilience reemerges and forces policymakers to continue tightening.
Brent crude eased somewhat, weighed by the weak jobs report, signs of recovering Middle Eastern crude exports and reports that European nations may release strategic fuel reserves to ease supply pressures. However, Brent remains above $100 amid persistent Middle East tensions.
Russian President Putin warned that Moscow would deploy all weapons in its arsenal, including nuclear ones, if the exclave of Kaliningrad or other Russian territory faced a direct attack. Speaking at the Valdai Forum, he framed the remarks as a response to alleged NATO plans to isolate the Baltic region while insisting Russia has no intention of attacking Europe.
Kaliningrad is the headquarters of Russia's Baltic Fleet. The strategically critical ice-free port is separated from mainland Russia and provides Moscow a forward base to project power into northern and central Europe.
Markets are generally tilted toward risk-on on the reduced odds of a near-term Fed rate hike. The dovish surprise from today's NFP lifted equities, with the Nasdaq reaching record highs, as investors anticipate easier financial conditions ahead.
There's a relatively light data calendar next week centered on the U.S. services sector, FedSpeak, and consumer sentiment, alongside ongoing geopolitical and bond-market developments. Chinese markets remain closed for Golden Week, limiting trading activity and reducing liquidity in the early part of the week.
GOLD
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$5.42 (+0.13%)
5-Day Change: -$106.98 (-2.50%)
YTD Range: $3,945.52 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,838.64 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +0.81
Gold initially rallied on the NFP miss, but gains above $4,200 could not be sustained. Although yields eased today, they remain near levels last seen in 2002, while the dollar index is on track for a third consecutive solid weekly gain. As a result, gold is set to post a second straight weekly decline.
Resistance has been clarified by today's high at $4,225.02, which provides an important intervening barrier ahead of the high for this week at $4,284.54. The latter corresponds closely with the falling 100- and 20-day moving averages. The rising 50-day MA at $4,326.61 must be regained to ease pressure on the downside and suggest potential back to the August high at $4,696.31.
However, at this point, yield and dollar strength remain a significant headwind. A short-term breach of the lows for this week at $4,114.53/$4,111.49 and the $4,106.19 Fibonacci level would shift focus to congestive chart support around $4065/$4,0555.
SILVER
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.067 (+0.11%)
5-Day Change: -$3.391 (-5.27%)
YTD Range: $54.778 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $45.563 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +10.23
Silver popped briefly above $62 in the wake of today's jobs report as October rate hike odds eroded and yields and the dollar eased. However, the gains in the white metal could not be sustained, and the market subsequently fell to eight-week lows. Silver is poised for a second straight lower weekly close.
As noted earlier in the week, the drop below $60 leaves the $58.272 Fibonacci level vulnerable to a test. Below that, the 4-Aug low at $58.01 would be in play. Last month's low at $56.583 provides a decent intervening barrier ahead of July's cycle low at $54.778.
Today's intraday high at $62.079 now provides important resistance. If silver can muster a rebound to take out this level, a challenge of Monday's high at $64.289 would become likely. This area is bolstered by the convergence of the 20- and 50-day moving averages.
A climb back above the 100-day MA is needed to ease pressure on the downside and rehighlight the late-September highs at $67.513/529. Above that, the 9-Sep high at $68.314 provides a formidable barrier ahead of the August high at $71.104 and the 200-day MA at $72.961.
Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com
Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.