Gold and silver extend losses but still poised for higher weekly closes 5-Day Change: +$49.63 (+1.24%) YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $4,381.21 52-Week Range: $2,556.18 - $4,381.21 Weighted Alpha: +58.49 Gold extended losses on Friday after tests back above $4,200 could not be sustained, and the dollar firmed. Nonetheless, the yellow metal is poised for its first higher weekly close in four.  Gold has traded below the 20-day moving average and the 50% retracement level of the rally from $3,887.03 (28-Oct low) to $4,244.81 (13-Nov high). Intraday buying interest developed, but a close above the 20-day at $4,073.77 is needed to ease pressure on the downside and open up potential for further attacks on the upside in the week ahead. On the other hand, a close below the 20-day would leave the yellow metal vulnerable to the $4,000 zone. Today's earlier low at $4,038.83 and Fibonacci support at $4,023.70 mark intervening barriers. As noted above, investors have been rotating out of high-valuation AI and growth stocks into defensive sectors. This risk-off tilt should also underpin gold. Gold is up over 50% this year, driven primarily by robust central bank purchases for reserve diversification (especially from China, Russia, and India), heightened geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty amid U.S. tariffs and de-dollarization trends, persistent inflation concerns, a weakening U.S. dollar, and safe-haven demand from investors hedging against stagflation and policy risks. For all of these reasons, I remain bullish. An eventual retest of the record high at $4,381.21 is favored. With potential to $5,000 in Q1. While I do think the corrective low is in, further consolidation seems likely before the uptrend resumes. SILVER OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.278 (-0.53%) 5-Day Change: +$1.996 (+4.13%) YTD Range: $28.565 - $54.465 52-Week Range: $28.565 - $54.465 Weighted Alpha: +76.67 Silver remains defensive heading into the weekend after Thursday's rejection from in front of the $54.465 record high. However, the white metal remains on track for a weekly gain of more than 5%.  This week's volatility is unnerving, but it's a common reality in the relatively small silver market. It is also likely to persist as the market continues to normalize after tariff and trade concerns created substantial dislocation earlier in the year. Silver is unique in that it holds a dual role as both a safe-haven asset and a key industrial metal. It was officially added to the U.S. Geological Survey's list of critical minerals this month. This designation elevates silver to a vital industrial resource, essential for economic and national security. This is likely to create a structural boost to demand through government-backed initiatives that prioritize domestic production and supply security, potentially exacerbating the existing global supply deficit. I remain a long-term bull, and key resistance is well defined by the potential double top at $54.390/465. Friday's Asian high at $53.549 marks an intervening barrier. An eventual move to new all-time highs would favor tests above $55, with potential to $56.886 based on a Fibonacci extension. Such a move would also boost confidence in the extended bullish scenario that targets $60. On the downside, the breach of Tuesday's low at $50.297 suggests a vulnerability to $50. Below that, the 20-day moving average at $49.204 protects the important $48 zone. Peter A. Grant Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist Zaner Metals LLC 312-549-9986 Direct/Text [email protected] www.zanermetals.com Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted. |