Zaner Daily Precious Metals Commentary
Friday, June 13, 2025Gold jumps back above $3,400 on haven bid as Israel launches attacks on Iran
OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Israel has launched attacks against Iranian nuclear facilities, program scientists, and military leadership. The initial strikes came a day after the UN's nuclear watchdog confirmed that Iran was not complying with its nonproliferation obligations.
"I've made it clear time and again: Israel will never allow those who call for our annihilation to develop the means to achieve that goal," said Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. "We will not let the world’s most dangerous regime get the world’s most dangerous weapons. And Iran plans to give those weapons -- nuclear weapons! -- to its terrorist proxies," he added.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that America was not involved in the attacks. However, Iran did threaten to strike back at U.S. bases in the Middle East if it were attacked. President Trump is meeting with the National Security Council today, and U.S. military assets are being repositioned in the region.
At this point, it's unclear if planned talks in Oman this weekend between the U.S. and Iran will proceed. President Trump indicated via TruthSocial that there's still an opportunity for Iran to make a deal.
However, Iran has vowed a 'powerful response' to Israel's attacks, so the risk of escalation seems considerable. CBS reports that Tehran launched more than 100 drones against Israel, but Iranian retaliation has been limited thus far.
Markets don't appear to be terribly concerned. While initial reports of the attacks swung market sentiment to risk-off, risk appetite has since rebounded.
The dollar got an initial boost on haven interest, but those gains have since moderated. While still higher on the day, the dollar index is poised for a significantly lower weekly close after reaching three-year lows on Thursday.
Michigan Sentiment rebounded to a four-month high of 60.5 in the preliminary reading for June, above expectations of 52.5, versus 52.2 in May. "All five index components rose, with a particularly steep increase for short and long-run expected business conditions, consistent with a perceived easing of pressures from tariffs," according to the survey.
GOLD
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: +$6.47 (+0.19%)
5-Day Change: +$120.12 (+3.63%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,295.86 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +49.61
Gold surged to a seven-week high of $3,444.29 overnight as IDF strikes on Iran sparked a strong haven bid. The yellow metal is poised for a third straight daily gain and a second consecutive higher weekly close.
Gold's response to Israel's attack was arguably pretty tepid, perhaps because of Iran's limited retaliation thus far, and the bounce in the dollar. However, as long as the current Iranian regime remains in power, more aggressive retaliation seems likely.
That would stoke already elevated geopolitical risk. If retaliation includes attacks on U.S. bases in the region, the situation could become very spicy, very fast.
Today's price action constitutes an upside breakout of the symmetrical triangle formation, and more than 78.6% of the correction has been retraced. This shifts the technical focus decisively back in favor of the dominant uptrend.
Fresh record highs would shift focus to the $3,596.20 Fibonacci objective initially, while also lending additional credence to the $4,000 target. The early-U.S. high at $3,444.29 marks first resistance.
An intraday low at $3,411.08 marks first support, which protects $3,401.81/$3,400.00. A breach of today's low at $3,381.08 after this significant uptick in Middle East risks would leave gold vulnerable back to the $3,300 zone.
SILVER
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: -$0.156 (-0.43%)
5-Day Change: +$0.237 (+0.66%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $36.875
52-Week Range: $26.524 - $36.875
Weighted Alpha: +26.62
Silver is consolidating above $36 and is on track for a second straight higher weekly close after reaching a 12-year high of $36.875 on Monday. The white metal is being underpinned by gold's strength, a generally weak dollar, heightened expectations for easing, optimism on trade, and improved consumer sentiment.
In the wake of last week's range breakout, the focus remains squarely on the upside with sights now on the February 2012 high at $37.430. A breach of this level would bode well for a push to the next Fibonacci projection at $38.750. Such a move would bring $40 within striking distance.
On the downside, $36.00/$35.948 defines first support and protects the low for the week at $35.656. The 20-day moving average is well protected at $34.452.
Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com
Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.