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Gold notches its first weekly loss in five, while silver ends the week down nearly 10%

Outside Market Developments: Market uncertainty has intensified ahead of the weekend, driven by a surprisingly weak U.S. jobs report, the escalating Middle East conflict, which is pushing oil prices higher, and stoking inflation fears. This has triggered widespread risk aversion among investors, who are shifting away from equities toward safer assets as stocks decline sharply amid concerns about prolonged economic disruption from geopolitical tensions and rising energy costs.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly declined by 92k jobs in February, far worse than economists' expectations of around +59k. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, versus 4.3% in January. It was the first rise in the jobless rate since November.

Negative back-month revisions were significant once again, totalling -69k for January and December. December flipped from +48k to -17k jobs. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% from +0.3% in January.

Retail sales fell 0.2% in January, on expectations of -0.3%. Consecutive months of tepid retail sales prints are contributing to ongoing concerns about consumer spending resilience in a high-inflation, uncertain environment. The more recent rise in energy prices sets the stage for further retail sales weakness ahead.

I'd expected heightened calls for Fed easing in light of today's data. While U.S. yields end the week on a bit of a bid, Fed funds futures haven't moved much. The next Fed rate cut isn't fully priced until October.

The US-Israel war against Iran is on the verge of entering its second week with no signs of de-escalation. The U.S. intensified strikes on Iranian targets throughout the week, while Israel struck at Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran continued to launch drone and missile attacks across Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, halting nearly all tanker traffic through this critical chokepoint for global oil supplies. Spreading hostilities involving Hezbollah in Lebanon, retaliatory strikes on U.S. bases, and intercepted Iranian missiles near Turkey are raising fears of a broader multi-front war.

Concerns about overvaluation in the AI sector intensified as Oracle and OpenAI shelved plans to expand their flagship Texas data center due to prolonged financing negotiations and OpenAI's shifting computational needs. Meta is reportedly eyeing the site.

This development, combined with a recent Bank of America survey showing 23% of institutional credit investors viewing an "AI bubble" as their top worry, amid massive projected 2026 capex exceeding $700 bln. This is stoking doubts about whether the sector's lofty valuations can hold, adding pressure to the broader market.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$4.05 (-0.08%)
5-Day Change: -$160.91 (-3.05%)
YTD Range: $4,310.83 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $2,882.53 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +78.62

Gold spent the majority of the week in the lower half of the range that was established on Monday and Tuesday. The inability to sustain those initial tests above $5,400 sets up the yellow metal's first lower weekly close in five weeks.



Nonetheless, there are still some encouraging signs: The $5,000 support zone can be considered intact, and gold was unable to register a close below the 20-day moving average. I'm impressed by gold's resilience in the face of 14-week highs in the dollar index.

The escalating Middle East war has shifted some of the haven flows to the dollar. Additionally, stock market losses are probably putting some deleveraging pressure on gold. While these headwinds should not be dismissed, gold remains a key diversifying asset in times of uncertainty.

The midpoint of this week's range at $5,208.30 is reinforced by Monday's high at $5,206.10. Penetration of this area early in the week ahead would ease some of the pressure on the downside and bode well for another run at $5,400.

On the other hand, a breach of Thursday's low at $5,052.57, or a close below the 20-day MA, would shift focus back to $5,000.00/$4,997.76. Below the latter, a minor level at $4,960.86 protects the rising 50-day MA at $4,866.53 and the more important 17-Feb low at $4,847.74.

Persistent geopolitical tensions and global uncertainties from tariffs, sanctions, and policy risks remain broadly supportive for gold. Additional key drivers are strong central bank purchases (de-dollarization), expectations of lower U.S. interest rates, a weaker dollar, and inflation, all of which bode well for an eventual resumption of the long-term uptrend. In the meantime, volatility is expected to remain high.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.052 (+0.06%)
5-Day Change: -$10.079 (-10.75%)
YTD Range: $64.14 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +168.22

Silver is poised for its first lower weekly close in three, weighed by a stronger dollar and revived concerns about tech/Ai sector overvaluation. The white metal has erased the entire 10% gain notched in the previous week, highlighting ongoing volatility.



Today's weak jobs report and weak retail sales print are fostering growth concerns. This may ultimately lead to a more dovish tilt at the Fed, but for now anyway, the central bank remains on hold.

Safe-haven spillover from gold is likely to provide some underpinning, but I do expect silver to underperform in the short to near term. Further tests above 70 in the gold/silver ratio seem likely.

Silver ends the week above the 20-day moving average, but a sustained move back above $90 in the week ahead is needed to call for a move back into the upper half of the broad  $121.630/$64.140 range (above $92.885). That would shift focus to the high from Monday at $96.393. Above that, $100 would be back in play.

For now, further tests below $80 can not be ruled out. Thursday's low at $80.662 provides a modest intervening barrier. More important support is well defined by Thursday's low at $78.092. 


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver recover somewhat after Tuesday's sharp losses

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: The US-Israel war against Iran has entered its fifth day, with intensified airstrikes continuing overnight and into today.  Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that more U.S. forces are on the way to the region, as officials acknowledge the conflict could extend beyond initial projections.

A U.S. Navy fast-attack submarine sank an Iranian Navy frigate in the Indian Ocean off the southern coast of Sri Lanka, marking the first torpedo sinking of an enemy ship by a U.S. submarine since World War II. U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth described it as a "quiet death" for the warship.

The U.S. military has reported six service members killed in action during Operation Epic Fury, primarily from Iranian retaliatory strikes, including a drone attack on a facility in Kuwait. Israeli casualties from Iranian retaliatory missile and drone strikes stand at at least 11 civilians, with hundreds injured and no confirmed IDF military fatalities reported so far. Iranian state media reports over 1,000 deaths from strikes, and losses from the torpedoed frigate could be over 200.

President Trump is not ruling out deploying ground forces, although he doesn't believe it will be necessary. ‘There will be no boots on the ground.’ I don’t say it," adding that he believes troops "probably don’t need" to be sent but would consider it "if they were necessary."

Oil prices have surged sharply due to the effective halt of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and fears of prolonged supply disruptions. Brent crude was up much as 16% for the week in early trading, reaching levels last seen in July 2024. Continued upward pressure is likely amid the ongoing conflict and threats to regional exports.

Higher energy prices will boost inflation, which prompted the trade to pared expectations for two Fed rate cuts this year, pushing the dollar index 14-week highs. The next 25 bps rate cut is now not fully priced until October. Fed funds futures imply 41 bps of total easing for the remainder of the year.

Today's U.S. economic releases showed mixed but generally softer labor market signals amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. While the war may soften interest in domestic fundamentals in the short-term, the market will still be paying attention to Friday's jobs report. Consensus for February nonfarm payrolls is +59k. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.3%.

Risk appetite has rebounded as investors increasingly look past the war to focus on hopes for potential de-escalation. 
The New York Times reported that Iran's Ministry of Intelligence made contact with the CIA through another country's spy agency, offering to discuss terms for ending the conflict. The U.S. is treating that overture with a significant degree of skeptisism thus far.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$103.75 (+2.04%)
5-Day Change: +$22.28 (+0.43%)
YTD Range: $4,310.83 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $2,882.53 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +82.05

Gold has been quite volatile so far this week. Initial gains on Monday saw five-week highs above $5,400. However, selling interest emerged on Tuesday as rising concerns about oil prices – and broad inflation – weighed on Fed easing expectations. The dollar followed yields higher and gold ended the day down more than 4%.



However, tests below the 20-day moving average could not be sustained and the $5,000 support zone can be considered intact. A modestly more favorable tone is evident midweek as the trade assesses the most recent war developements and the yellow metal is consolidating in the lower half of this week's more than $400 range.

While I do maintain that the underlying fundamentals remain supportive, short to near term conditions are likely to remain quite volatile. Bulls will be quick to take profits on rallies, and look for limited risk opportunities to buy on dips. I'm not catching any longer-term bearish vibes out there, but sellers will absolutely step in when the right opportunity presents itself.

The 20-day MA comes in at $5,068.27 today and remains important on a close basis. The more important level to watch os $5,000/$4,997.76. Below that, a minor level at $4,960.86 protects the convergence of the low from 17-Feb at $4,847.74 and the rising 50-day.

A rise into the upper half of this week's range (so far) above $5,208.30 (reinforced by today's high at $5,206.10) would return a measure of credence to the bullish scenario that favors a retest if the record high at $5,595.02 and a resumption of the dominant uptrend. Additional upside barriers are marked by Tuesday's high at $5,379.89 and Monday's high at $5,418.84.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$4.161 (+5.07%)
5-Day Change: -$3.598 (-4.03%)
YTD Range: $64.140 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +177.12

Silver is consolidating amid broader risk-on sentiment and some degree of optimism that the U.S. and Israel have things well in hand when it comes to Iran. However, Tuesday's sharp drop stemming from inflation fears, expectations for delaying Fed rate cuts, and a stronger dollar, has the bull camp on edge.



The range for the week is more than $18, and it's only Wednesday. That's enough volatility to rattle the nerves of even the most ardent bull.

With the war raging, I do expect gold and the dollar to garner most of the haven interest. That means silver may continue to lag on rallies with scope for ongoing high levels of volatility from war headlines, interest rate and dollar dynamics, and technical action.

That being said, silver remains in a strong bull trend, up a massive 161% YoY, driven by strong supply/demand fundamentals. I'd be inclined to give a little more credence to buying strategies within the broad range, but I would keep a tight rein on risk.

The failure of silver to sustain gains into the upper half of the broad $121.630/$64.140 range is troubling, suggesting further tests below $80 could be in the offing. A short-term close back above $90 would temper that concern somewhat.

Monday's high at $96.393 now provides a key barrier ahead of the next retracement level at $99.699 (61.8%), and perhaps more importantly, $100. Penetration of the latter is needed to return confidence to the underlying uptrend and put the $121.630 record high back in play.

Even as I write this, I realize how far apart some of these levels are. What we are experiencing this year is absolutely unprecedented, and it will take the market (and me) some time to adjust to the profound structural change in the silver market.

Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver are poised for higher weekly and monthly closes amid persistent haven interest

Outside Market Developments: Hotter-than-expected PPI data for January reinforce expectations that the Fed is on hold into H2, weighing on stocks and generally sapping risk appetite. The next 25 bps rate cut is not fully priced until September.

The 0.8% monthly rise in core PPI is particularly concerning as it was well above expectations of +0.3%. Annualized core PPI accelerated to 3.6%, above expectations of 3.0%, versus 3.3% in December.

Initial jobless claims, released on Thursday, revealed a 4k increase to 212k for the week ended 21-Feb. While that was inside expectations of 215k, Block's announcement of massive layoffs (over 40% of its workforce) to pivot toward AI efficiency has amplified worries about workforce disruptions.

The February jobs report, slated for release next Friday, will be a highlight in the week ahead. Median expectations for nonfarm payrolls are +60k, on the heels of January's impressive beat. Although if history is any indication, negative back-month revisions are likely. The jobless rate is expected to hold steady at 4.3%, while the consensus for hourly earnings is +0.3%.

The latest round of Iran nuclear talks in Geneva did not result in any breakthroughs, heightening speculation of imminent U.S. and/or Israeli military action. The U.S. State Department has authorized the voluntary departure of non-critical personnel and family members from the embassy in Israel. Additionally, the USS Ford carrier strike group reportedly arrived on station off the coast of Israel today.

Given evidence of a recurring pattern where Trump acts on Fridays and over weekends, presumably to minimize market impact, tensions are high. "I'd love not to use [the U.S. military to attack Iran], but sometimes you have to," Trump said on Friday.



GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.51 (+0.01%)
5-Day Change: +$132.44 (+2.59%)
YTD Range: $4,310.83 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $2,835.23 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +88.53

Gold continues to retrace late-January/early-February corrective losses and is poised for its fourth consecutive higher weekly close. February will also mark the yellow metal's seventh straight higher monthly close.



According to Dillon Gage, it will be the "longest monthly rally streak in 50 years." BarChart shows a slightly lower close in July '25, which is also reflected in LBMA month-end data. Whether we're talking seven months or eight months, it's been an impressive run.

The World Gold Council released a report this week called, Why gold in 2026? A cross-asset perspective, showing the yellow metal significantly outperformed other major asset classes in 2025 and continues to do so in 2026.

 

"Risk assets are sitting at uneasy highs against a backdrop of a world in turmoil. Yes, there are a host of tailwinds that should support a revival in growth throughout the year, including easier monetary policy and the global fiscal boost. But the consensus narrative of a global economy that has proved “robust” in the face of tariffs and turmoil underestimates the very real risks that remain," according to the WGC.

Friday's upside extension to fresh four-week highs returns additional credence to the underlying uptrend. Sights remain on $5,300 and the 78.6% Fibonacci level at $5.340.72. An eventual breach of the latter would bode well for a push to new all-time highs.

A minor intraday support at $5,214.80 protects $5,200 and the overseas low at $5,132.43. More important support marked by the low for the week at $5,097.57 should help keep the once again rising 20-day moving average at $5,018.60.

The trade is likely to continue focusing on buying into corrective setbacks within the range. At this point, it would probably take material progress toward an Iran deal to temper the haven bid.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$1.704 (+1.93%)
5-Day Change: +$8.362 (+9.89%)
YTD Range: $64.14 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +225.34

Silver posted strong gains on Friday and is up more than 10% on the week, buoyed by ongoing haven interest amid mounting risk of military action against Iran, and signs of persistently sticky inflation. The white metal is poised for a second straight higher weekly close and its tenth consecutive higher monthly close.



Despite the stunning near halving of the price early in the month, conviction in the underlying uptrend seems to be growing, amid industrial demand tailwinds and ongoing supply tightness narratives. Silver moved back into the upper half of the massive $121.63/$64.14 range on Friday, trading at levels not seen since the plunge on 30-Jan.

While conditions are likely to remain quite volatile, the latest round of gains bolsters confidence in the scenario that calls for a return to the $99.669/$100 zone. The 20-day moving average will rotate higher for the first time since 4-Feb. If the 20-day can climb back above the 50-day in early March, it will provide additional encouragement to the bull camp.

Initial support is marked by an intraday low at $92.409. Below that, $92.000 and 91.602 should help keep the $90 level protected. A failure to sustain gains would suggest scope for further choppy consolidation within the range.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold rebounds from Tuesday's setback, buoyed by haven interest, softer dollar, surging silver

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Last night's State of the Union address added to already high levels of uncertainty, particularly in financial markets and among investors. The lengthy speech – the longest on record at nearly 1 hour 48 minutes – focused heavily on touting economic victories, immigration enforcement, and patriotism while defending aggressive tariff policies amid recent legal setbacks. The address offered no major surprises to calm nerves, instead reinforcing an unpredictable policy landscape ahead of midterms.

President Trump reaffirmed his plan to impose temporary global tariffs of 15% under an alternative authority after the Supreme Court struck down the prior broader regime. This has amplified existing trade policy volatility, with analysts noting renewed jitters over potential higher costs for businesses and consumers, supply chain disruptions, and retaliatory actions from trading partners.

Trump emphasised his desire for a diplomatic resolution with Iran, but his address was laced with threats and red lines. A third round of indirect talks begins in Geneva on Thursday. Meanwhile, the U.S. continues to build up military forces within striking distance of Iran, described as the most significant since the 2003 Iraq invasion 

Nonetheless, the market is in risk-on mode today as attention turns to NVIDIA's highly anticipated earnings report after the market close. NVIDIA is viewed as a bellwether for the AI sector, and analysts are anticipating massive profit growth, perhaps as high at +70% y/y. This would bolster broader AI sentiment, at least temporarily alleviating overvaluation concerns as a headwind.

Yesterday's better-than-expected consumer confidence report is helping the cause. “Confidence ticked up in February after falling in January, as consumers’ pessimistic expectations for the future eased somewhat,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board.

This week's chaos in Mexico – stemming from the killing of a cartel kingpin and that cartel's retaliation – has largely subsided, with flights resuming, public transportation reopening, and the U.S. State Department declaring conditions "returned to normal." However, experts are warning of potential lingering instability stemming from ongoing power struggles within the cartel.

Japan PM Takaichi has nominated two dovish academics to the Bank of Japan board, which heightened concerns that further interest rate hikes by the BOJ would be delayed or limited. This put additional pressure on the yen, after Takaichi expressed reservations earlier this week about further rate increases.

Yen weakness is helping to underpin the dollar. Nonetheless, gains in the dollar index since the late-January low are still seen as corrective within the longer-term downtrend.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$37.67 (+0.73%)
5-Day Change: +$224.66 (+4.51%)
YTD Range: $4,310.83 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $2,835.23 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +86.67

Gold has rebounded from Tuesday's setback amid ongoing trade and geopolitical risk, with help from a softer dollar and soaring silver. The yellow metal remains confined to yesterday's range at this point, but the underlying fundamentals and technicals are broadly positive.

 

While dollar strength poses a short-term headwind, a breach of Tuesday's high at $5,259.54 would bode well for an upside extension to $5,300 and the $5,340.72 Fibonacci level (78.6% retracement). An eventual penetration of the latter would go a long way toward confirming potential for new all-time highs above $5,595.02.

Previously established objectives at $5,675.25, $5,700, $5,800 remain valid. A newer Fibonacci projection at $5,918.25 would draw gold within striking distance of $6,000. 

With gold tracking above the important moving averages, setbacks within the well-established range are likely to be viewed as buying opportunities. However, short to near-term volatility is likely to remain a challenge.

Today's overseas low at $5,127.41 marks first support. The more important levels to watch are the low for the week from Tuesday at $5,097.51 and the 20-day moving average at $5,011.75.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$3.323 (+3.81%)
5-Day Change: +$13.431 (+17.40%)
YTD Range: $64.140 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +214.41

Silver has surged to trade back above $90 for the first time in four weeks, spurred by persistent haven interest, revived optimism about the tech/AI sector, unrest in Mexico, and a weaker dollar. The white metal is already up nearly 8% this week, on the heels of a more than 9% gain last week.


 
Strong earnings from NVIDIA after the close today will likely perpetuate the rebound in silver, which favors a challenge of $92.885, the midpoint of the huge $121.630/$64.140 range. The high for February at $92.186 provides an intervening barrier.

If silver can clear the halfway back point of the January/February plunge, a return to the $100 zone becomes likely. This level is reinforced by the 61.8% retracement level at $99.668.

According to Heraeus, the Perth Mint’s sales of silver bars and coins surged 188% m/m in January, to 1.7Mmoz, while gold sales fell by 19% to 29koz. This is "consistent with price-sensitive retail buyers jumping into silver as it outperformed gold during the price rally."

Certainly, those retail customers were rattled by the subsequent rout, but physical buyers tend to have more conviction than investors in paper (digital) representations of precious metals. They are likely to be reemboldened upon a rebound above $100.

Heraeus also noted that Hecla Mining Company "is leaning harder into its 'silver-first' positioning." Hecla agreed to sell its 
Casa Berardi gold mine in Quebec, Canada, along with nearby exploration properties, to Orezone Gold Corporation. Hecla CEO Rob Krcmarov described it as an "important milestone" to concentrate capital and operations on "world-class silver assets" for better returns on invested capital and long-term value creation.

There seems to be a growing commitment to continued silver outperformance. The rebound in the gold/silver ratio stalled above 70, and signs of renewed weakness are evident. The ratio is trading below 58 today. A move below 50 would bode well for a retest of the January low at 43.573, with potential as low as the 31.707 low from 2011.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Good morning. The precious metals are higher in early U.S. trading.

U.S. calendar features MBA Mortgage Market Index, EIA Data. FedSpeak due from Barkin and Musalem.