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Gold $3,302.88 $30.55 0.93% Silver $36.06 $0.11 0.31% Platinum $1,352.97 $14.59 1.09% Palladium $1,101.10 $(31.97) -2.82%
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Morning Metals Call
Monday, June 30, 2025
Good morning. The precious metals are higher in early U.S. trading.
 
Quote Board
 
U.S. calendar features Chicago PMI, Dallas Fed Index.
 
FedSpeak due from Bostic & Goolsbee.
Zaner Daily Precious Metals Commentary
Friday, June 27, 2025

Gold heads for a second straight lower weekly close on diminished haven bid

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS:  The U.S. and China have confirmed that the framework for a trade deal has been agreed to, further stoking risk appetite heading into the weekend.

Citing a Ministry of Commerce spokesperson, Chinese state media reports that "China will review and approve applications for the export of eligible controlled items in accordance with the law, and the US will remove a series of restrictive measures imposed on China accordingly."

Arguably, a deal with China significantly dials back trade war risks and creates momentum for the Trump administration. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that ten more trade deals are in the offing, with the President keen to finalize them by the July 9 deadline. 

The Israel/Iran ceasefire continues to hold, which has significantly diminished geopolitical risks this week. U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff said earlier in the week that the White House is seeking a “comprehensive peace agreement.” Economic incentives are reportedly being discussed to get Iran back to the negotiating table.

Witkoff also hinted that a number of additional Middle East countries would be joining the Abraham Accords, normalizing relations with Israel. Then, out of left field, the White House announced that it had brokered a peace deal between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

President Trump's “big, beautiful bill” has stalled in the Senate after the Parliamentarian determined that the provision that cuts billions of dollars in federal Medicaid payments violated the Byrd Rule. That means the legislation can no longer be passed with a simple majority.

Even if the Senate can pass its version of the bill, it's not clear if the House will sign off on the amended version. Getting the “big, beautiful bill” to President Trump's desk by Independence Day appears to be increasingly unlikely.

Personal income and PCE unexpectedly dipped in May. While the Fed's preferred measure of inflation ticked higher, price risks remain well anchored.

While geopolitical, trade, and growth risks have moderated, leading to risk-on sentiment every day this week, U.S. fiscal uncertainty remains a concern. On top of that, Fed easing later in the year is looking increasingly likely. 

Personal Income fell 0.4% in May, below expectations of +0.3%, versus a revised +0.7% in April (was +0.8%).

PCE -0.1% in May, on expectations of +0.2%, versus +0.2% in April.

PCE Price Index rose 0.1%, in line with expectations, versus +0.1% in April; 2.3% y/y, up from 2.3% in April. Core +0.2% on expectations of +0.1%, versus +0.1% in April; 2.7% y/y, up from 2.6% in April.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$42.62 (-1.28%)
5-Day Change: -$94.34 (-2.97%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,319.85 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +38.98

Gold has fallen to four-week lows as ebbing geopolitical, trade, and growth risks sap the haven bid. The yellow metal is poised for a second consecutive lower weekly close.



Rising expectations of Fed easing are further stoking risk-on sentiment, to the detriment of the yellow metal. Nonetheless, gold remains well within the range that has been in place since mid-May, with U.S. fiscal uncertainty and a weak dollar providing some underpinning.

The breach of support at $3,299.77/97.69 amounts to a convincing move into the lower half of the range. Secondary support at $3,251.28 (29-May low) was approached, but has contained the downside thus far. Penetration of this level would leave gold vulnerable to the $3,200 zone.

Despite today's setback, the dominant trend is still perceived to be bullish. A rebound into the upper half of the range, above $3,311.51 would return a measure of confidence to that trend.

Important resistances for the week ahead are noted at $3,355.11 (20-day MA), $3,391.95 (Monday's high), and $3,400.00/01.45 (minor). Last week's high at $3,449.13 marks a more important barrier that protects the record high around $3,500.00.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.660 (-1.80%)
5-Day Change: +$0.074 (+0.21%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $37.288
52-Week Range: $26.524 - $37.288
Weighted Alpha: +26.56

Silver fell back below $36, weighed by heightened risk appetite that knocked gold to four-week lows. However, the white metal is clinging to a weekly gain with help from continued signs of a resilient U.S. economy and a weak dollar.



The brief intraday probe below the 20-day moving average could not be sustained, leaving more important chart supports at $35.707 and $35.369 protected. I'll be watching the 20-day ($36.150) on a close basis today.

A rebound above Thursday's high at $36.759 is needed to clear the way for renewed tests above $37. The $37.288/430 zone must be cleared to perpetuate the uptrend and shift focus to the $38.750 Fibonacci objective. Beyond the latter, $40 attracts.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Morning Metals Call
Friday, June 27, 2025
Good morning. The precious metals are lower in early U.S. trading.
 
Quote Board
 
U.S. calendar features Personal Income, PCE, Michigan Sentiment Final, Ag Prices.
 
FedSpeak from Hammack & Cook.
Zaner Daily Precious Metals Commentary
Thursday, June 26, 2025

Gold stable near midrange as white metals surge

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Risk appetite remains elevated as the ceasefire between Israel and Iran continues to hold. President Trump has suggested that talks with Iran will resume next week, boosting market confidence that a longer-lasting peace deal may be struck.

Iran's Supreme Leader made his first appearance since the U.S. attacks. “The Islamic Republic was victorious," he claimed. Adding that the attacks "could not achieve anything significant.” 

U.S. Q1 GDP was revised down to -0.5% in the third report, from -0.2% previously. Overall growth was weighed by a significant downward adjustment in personal consumption expenditures to +0.5% from +1.2%. The GDP Price Index was revised up 0.1% to 3.8%, versus 2.3% in Q4.

The contraction is attributed to a surge in imports associated with tariff front-running. Growth is expected to rebound in Q2, with some estimates, including the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow, above 3%. Other data released this morning was seen as broadly favorable. 

"The economy is in a good place," said SF Fed President Mary Daly on Bloomberg. "The Fall looks promising for a rate cut," she added.

Prospects for a July or September cut continue to creep higher, but a 25 bps cut is still not fully priced until October. Fed funds futures are now implying 64 bps in total cuts by year-end.

Revived dovishness is weighing on yields and the dollar. The dollar index breached last week's low at 97.60, plumbing more-than three-year lows.

Q1 GDP Third Report -0.5% on expectations of -0.2%, versus -0.2% in the second report and 2.4% in Q4.

Durable Orders surged 16.4% in May, well above expectations of +9.0%, versus -6.6% in April. Transportation orders jumped 48.3% on strong Boeing orders from the Middle East. The ex-trans print was a much more modest +0.5%, versus unch in April.

Trade Balance widened to -$96.6 bln in May, outside expectations of -$91.0 bln, versus a revised -$87.0 bln in April (was -$87.6 bln).

Initial Jobless Claims fell 10k to 236k in the week ended 21-Jun, below expectations of 245k, versus 246k in the previous week. Continuing claims jumped 37k to a 43-month high of 1,974k in the 14-Jun week, versus 1,937k in the previous week.

Pending Home Sales Index rebounded 1.8% to 72.6 in May, versus 71.3 in April.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$11.03 (+0.33%)
5-Day Change: -$29.02 (-1.40%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,297.52 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +43.01

Gold was unable to sustain overseas upticks, leaving gold generally consolidative near the midpoint of the range. Haven interest remains muted as the ceasefire between Israel and Iran continues to hold.



Mounting rate cut expectations are pressuring yields and the dollar, providing an underpinning for the yellow metal. It is also widely believed that central bank demand for gold will remain robust, providing ongoing support.

"After years of record-high central bank gold purchases, reserve managers are doubling down on the precious metal," according to a report by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF). Meanwhile, interest in the dollar as a reserve asset continues to decline, dropping from the top spot to seventh over the past year.

The macro de-dollarization trend should continue to weigh on the greenback while simultaneously increasing the appeal of gold. The dollar index is seemingly poised to end the month of June below the 100-month moving average, which will bolster confidence in the longer-term upside objectives in gold at $4,000.

A rebound above the 20-day MA at $3,355.67 would bode well for renewed tests above $3,400.00/01.45. Good resistance marked by last week's high at $3,449.13 currently protects the record high around $3,500.00, but an eventual upside breakout remains favored.

On the downside, I'm watching the 50-day MA at $3,324.54 on a close basis.  Below that, more substantial support is marked by recent lows at $3,299.77/97.69. If this level gives way, scope would be seen for additional limited losses to $3,251.28 (29-May low).


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.342 (+0.94%)
5-Day Change: +$0.212 (+0.02%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $37.288
52-Week Range: $26.524 - $37.288
Weighted Alpha: +29.11

Silver jumped to new highs for the week above $36.351, spurred by risk-on sentiment, lower yields, and fresh three-year lows in the dollar index. White metal bulls were heartened by signs of a resilient U.S. economy, most notably a big jump in durable goods orders.



The 20-day moving average effectively contained corrective downticks this week, keeping focus squarely on the dominant uptrend. Scope is seen for renewed short-term tests above $37.

A push through the $37.288/430 zone is needed to clear the way a test of the next Fibonacci objective at $38.750. Beyond that, $40 is the attraction.

The gold/silver ratio is back below 91. A breach of the recent low at 90.30 (10-Jun) would bode well for a retreat below 90, favoring further silver overperformance, with potential to 87.50.

Today's Asian low at $36.255 now marks first support.  The 20-day moving average is at $35.910 today and should rise to the $36 zone by tomorrow, which will make for important support ahead of the weekend.

PGMs

Platinum has extended to fresh 11-year highs above $1,400, underpinned by strengthening demand and tight supply. Platinum is up a stunning 34% in June thus far. This year is expected to mark a third straight year of deficit.

Underpinned by platinum strength, palladium rose to an eight-month high.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Morning Metals Call
Thursday, June 26, 2025
Good morning. The precious metals are higher in early U.S. trading.
 
Quote Board
 
U.S. calendar features Trade Balance, Q1 GDP 3rd Report, Initial Jobless Claims, Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Pending Home Sales.
 
FedSpeak from Barkin, Hammack, & Barr.
Zaner Daily Precious Metals Commentary
Wednesday, June 25, 2025

Gold consolidates around the midpoint of the range

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Israel and Iran appear to be honoring the ceasefire agreement. While some degree of unease persists, oil below $65 is indicative of a market that is optimistic that the truce will hold. Investors remain tilted toward risk-on. The S&P is near record highs.

Reduced geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may now allow President Trump to focus on the ongoing war in Ukraine. Trump will meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky on the sidelines of the NATO summit in The Hague, where continued access to U.S. weapons will certainly be discussed.

Meanwhile, NATO members agreed to more than double defense spending, from 2% of GDP to 5%. This is a big win for President Trump as it reduces America's defense burden. Leaders, including President Trump, also reaffirmed their commitment to the central tenet of the alliance, “that an attack on one is an attack on all.”

Fed Chairman Powell is back on The Hill today to testify before the Senate. While inflation has cooled lately, the Fed is on hold amid ongoing worries that tariffs pose price risks. 

"We should start to see this over the summer, in the June number and the July number...If we don't we are perfectly open to the idea that the pass-through (to consumers) will be less than we think, and if we do that will matter for policy," Powell told the House on Tuesday.

The market seemed to read that as "so you're saying there's a chance," reflecting some level of optimism that trade deals will get worked out, and/or tariff costs won't be passed along to consumers. Prospects for a July rate cut have risen more than 10% over the past week, although it's still a long shot at 22.7%.

Fed funds futures continue to fully price a 25 bps cut for October. The implied Fed funds rate for year-end is 3.7825%, pricing nearly 60 bps in easing between now and then, suggesting that the market perceives heightened growth risks later in the year.

MBA Mortgage Applications rose 1.1% last week, versus -2.6% in the previous week. Purchases fell 0.4%, while refis jumped 3.0%. The 30-year mortgage rate edged up to 6.88% from 6.84%.

New Home Sales plunged 17.3% to a 623k pace in May, below expectations of 693k, versus a negative revised 722k in April (was 743k). 


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$1.01 (+0.03%)
5-Day Change: -$50.62 (-1.50%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,295.86 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +41.62

Gold is consolidating recent losses above $3,300 as the ceasefire between Israel and Iran holds, underpining risk appetite. Heightened easing expectations and a weak dollar are providing some support.



The yellow metal is trading right around the midpoint of the range that has been in place since mid-May, and straddling the 50-day moving average. Support at $3,297.69 (9-Jun low) successfully contained the downside on Monday, providing some encouragement for the bull camp.

A rebound above the 20-day MA at $3,355.56 would bode well for renewed tests above $3,400.00/01.45 and keep the technical bias tilted in favor of the dominant uptrend. Good resistance marked by last week's high at $3,449.13 protects the record high around $3,500.00.

If the yellow metal is unable to hold above $3,300, further consolidation in the lower half of the range becomes likely. Focus would shift initially to the $3,251.28 low from 29-May.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.175 (-0.49%)
5-Day Change: -$0.967 (-2.63%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $37.288
52-Week Range: $26.524 - $37.288
Weighted Alpha: +25.06

Silver has retraced all of Tuesday's losses and is now higher on the week. The white metal is being supported by an uptick in rate cut expectations and a generally soft dollar.

 

While silver is still more than 3% off the 13-year high set last week at $37.288, the failure to sustain corrective losses below the 20-day moving average and the subsequent rebound above $36 are encouraging to the underlying uptrend. A new high for the week above $36.351 would bode well for further tests above $37.

The February 2012 high at $37.430 is bolstered by last week's high at $37.288. A push through this area is needed to perpetuate the uptrend and shift focus to my next Fibonacci objective at $38.750. Beyond that, $40 would attract.

On the downside, keep an eye on the 20-day MA. Tuesday's low at $35.369 now protects the previous high at $34.853. Penetration of the latter would favor a deeper correction toward $33.988/949, where the 50-day MA corresponds with 38.2% retracement of the most recent leg higher.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Morning Metals Call
Wednesday, June 25, 2025
Good morning. The precious metals are mostly lower in early U.S. trading.
 
Quote Board
 
U.S. calendar features MBA Mortgage Applications, New Home Sales, EIA Data.
 
FedSpeak from Powell.
Zaner Daily Precious Metals Commentary
Tuesday, June 24, 2025

Gold slides on Israel/Iran ceasefire optimism

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: President Trump announced yesterday afternoon that a ceasefire between Israel and Iran would take effect over 24 hours. Since then, both combatants have accused the other of violating the terms of the deal, and Trump expressed his displeasure.

Nonetheless, markets are optimistic about de-escalating Middle East tensions. Oil prices have tumbled, and risk assets are back in vogue. 

Fed Chairman Powell is on The Hill today, testifying before the House Financial Services Committee. His prepared remarks highlight that the central bank remains on hold as members “wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy.”

Recent hints from Bowman or Waller that July is in play for a cut haven't gained much traction in the market. Fed funds futures continue to price the first 25 bps cut in October with a second in December. There will be additional FedSpeak from Hammack, Williams, Collins, Barr, and Schmid today.

The current account deficit blew out to a record wide -$450.2 bln in Q1. This was largely driven by a surge in the goods deficit stemming from tariff front-running early in the year. This is contributing to pressure on the dollar, driving the dollar index back within striking distance of the three-year low set last week.

Current Account deficit surged 44.3% to a record-wide -$450.2 bln in Q1, inside expectations of -$452.2 bln, versus a revised -$312.0 bln in Q4'24 (was -$303.9 bln).

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (20-city) rose 0.7% to a record high 341.5 in April,  versus 339.0 in March. The pace of gains slowed to 3.4% y/y from 4.1%.

FHFA Home Price Index declined 0.4% in April to 434.9 from 436.7 in March.

Consumer Confidence fell 5.4 points to 93.0 in June, below expectations of 99.8, versus a revised 98.4 in May (was 98.0). 

Richmond Fed Index rose 2 points to -7 in June, in line with expectations, versus -9 in May. It was the fourth straight negative print. There have only been three positive prints since May 2022.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$14.48 (-1.28%)
5-Day Change: -$43.28 (-2.45%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,295.86 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +40.88

Gold is under pressure as optimism about a ceasefire between Israel and Iran stoked risk appetite. The yellow metal traded briefly below $3,300 as safe-haven interest faded.



At this point, support at $3,297.69 (9-Jun low) remains intact, leaving gold right around the midpoint of the range that has dominated since mid-May. Renewed weakness in the dollar is helping to underpin the yellow metal.

I'm watching the 50- and 20-day moving averages on a close basis today, which are at $3,324.34 and $3,352.68. The latter seems out of reach, but a close above the 50-day would keep gold in the upper half of the range and be modestly encouraging for the bull camp.

A rebound above the 20-day would bode well for renewed tests above $3,400.00/01.45 and keep the technical bias is favor of the dominant uptrend. Good resistance marked by last week's high at $3,449.13 protects the record high around $3,500.00.

Despite the ceasefire, tensions in the Middle East will remain elevated. President Trump is on his way to a NATO summit in The Hague. He will likely be lauded briefly for his success with Iran (assuming the ceasefire holds), before focus shifts to the elusive ceasefire and peace deal in Ukraine.

If support at $3,299.77/97.69 gives way, focus will shift to secondary support at $3,251.28 (29-May low). I suspect buying interest will build ahead of the latter.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.020 (-0.06%)
5-Day Change: -$1.706 (-4.59%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $37.288
52-Week Range: $26.524 - $37.288
Weighted Alpha: +23.38

Silver reached a three-week low of $35.369 in early U.S. trading, weighed by the sharp losses in gold. The retreat in oil prices provided some additional pressure to the broader commodities market. However, renewed weakness in the dollar offset some of those pressures.



While white metal has traded lower in four of the last five sessions, the magnitude of the drop is well within expectations and is therefore considered corrective in nature. The 23.6% Fibonacci level at $35.225 has successfully contained the downside thus far. Additionally, the 20-day moving average was briefly penetrated, but the market seems likely to close above that indicator.

New highs for the week above $36.351 would constitute more than 50% retracement of the recent setback and restore a level of confidence to the underlying bull trend. After all, silver set new 13-year highs just last week.  

A retreat below the old high at $34.853 would suggest scope for a deeper correction into the previous range. At that point, the $33.949/915 level would be the likely attraction, where the next significant tier of Fibonacci support corresponds with the 50-day MA. 


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Zaner Daily Precious Metals Commentary
Monday, June 23, 2025

6/23/2025

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS:
 

  • President Trump's decision to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities marked a pivotal moment in U.S. foreign policy, aiming to eliminate a growing nuclear threat and restore regional deterrence. By dismantling key sites, the mission known as "Operation Midnight Hammer" dealt a severe blow to Iran’s nuclear ambitions and created an opening for long-term Middle East stability.
  • Despite multiple chances for diplomacy, Iran remained defiant, continuing enrichment and provoking conflict through proxies. The coordinated U.S.-Israeli operation not only crippled Iran’s nuclear infrastructure but also weakened its military posture and silenced several militant groups aligned with Tehran.
  • Though critics warned of escalating war, the strikes may have prevented one by removing a looming threat. President Trump’s actions showed a decisive break from past policies of delay, reinforcing U.S. credibility while offering Iran a final chance to choose peace over nuclear escalation.
  • Oil prices surged following the U.S. bombing of Iran, raising concerns that Tehran might try to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil route. While such a move could spike prices, it would also hurt Iran’s own economy and deepen its conflict with the U.S.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.69 (-0.0205%)
5-Day Change: -$9.59 (-0.52%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,295.86 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +45.01

Gold opened slightly lower than Friday's close at $3,367.60 then had a brief spike in the early hours of today's trading session. 


Image

Gold prices inched higher on Monday as geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel stirred safe-haven demand, though gains were capped by a rising U.S. dollar. Spot gold rose 0.1% to $3,369.80 an ounce, while U.S. futures held steady just above $3,385.

The dollar’s 0.6% climb made gold more expensive for international buyers, limiting its upward momentum. Analysts say that while gold remains supported by global uncertainty, a new record high is unlikely in the short term due to a potentially delayed Fed rate cut and stronger dollar.

The situation escalated as Iran threatened retaliation following U.S. strikes on its nuclear facilities, with President Trump hinting at possible regime change. Iran’s warning and missile exchanges with Israel added to investor anxiety heading into a week filled with economic reports and commentary from the Federal Reserve.

Gold remains supported by its 20-day EMA near $3,350 and trades within an ascending triangle pattern, hinting at potential volatility ahead. A sustained move above $3,500 could open the door to $3,550 and $3,600, while a break below $3,245 would signal weakness toward $3,200 or lower.



SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.135 (+0.375%)
5-Day Change: -$0.110 (-0.73%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $37.288
52-Week Range: $26.524 - $37.288
Weighted Alpha: +27.19

Silver is consolidating near the $36.00 level, struggling to break above key technical resistance at $36.31 amid cautious market sentiment and a stronger U.S. dollar. This resistance has limited bullish momentum despite rising geopolitical tensions that usually support safe-haven assets like silver.

Image
 

Silver faces opposing pressures from escalating geopolitical risks and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, which keeps the U.S. dollar strong and reduces appetite for non-yielding metals. As a result, silver has remained range-bound, with investors hesitant to push prices higher without clearer economic or risk signals.

Looking ahead, markets await important PMI data for further direction, while ongoing Middle East developments continue to add uncertainty. Until these catalysts emerge, silver is expected to trade within a narrow range between roughly $35.60 and $36.45, with key technical levels around $35.86 and $36.31 acting as support and resistance.

Iranian lawmakers have threatened to close the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz after U.S. forces joined Israeli strikes on Tehran’s nuclear sites. This narrow waterway is crucial for global energy supplies, with about 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passing through it daily, making any disruption a serious threat to global markets and energy prices.

While some analysts see the closure threat as a bargaining chip and a distant possibility due to Iran’s economic dependence on the strait, others warn it could provoke a swift and strong military response from the U.S. Iranian naval tactics, including swarms of small boats and potential use of mines, add complexity to the risk. Despite the saber-rattling, tanker traffic remains normal for now, though oil prices have risen amid fears of disruption.


Thomas Garland 
Vice President
Zaner Metals LLC
312-205-7906 Direct/Text
tgarland@zanermetals.com
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Morning Metals Call
Monday, June 23, 2025
Good morning. The precious metals are higher in early U.S. trading.
 
Quote Board
 
U.S. calendar features S&P Global Flash PMIs, Existing Home Sales.
 
FedSpeak due from Waller, Bowman, Goolsbee, Williams, & Kugler.