Gold and silver continued their marches higher on haven interest and weaker dollar
OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Market focus this week is on the two-day FOMC meeting that begins on Tuesday. The Fed is widely expected to be on hold, amid signs of a resilient economy and sticky, but stable inflation.
The trade is no longer pricing 50 bps of additional easing in 2026. Futures imply a Fed funds rate of 3.1975% at year-end, or 42.75 bps of easing. The next 25 bps cut is not fully priced until September.
The unrelenting safe-haven-driven rally in the precious metals is going to be another highlight this week. Gold, silver, and platinum all start the week at record levels.
Precious metals are attracting haven demand as relations between the U.S. and NATO allies continue to deteriorate over President Trump’s desire for Greenland. Trump is also threatening 100% tariffs on Canadian imports after the Carney government agreed to a limited trade deal with China. Concerns about Fed independence persist as well.
The dollar index gapped lower on the open, reaching levels not seen since mid-September. The Fed was reportedly checking the USD-JPY rates late last week, suggesting that U.S. and Japanese policymakers were coordinating to stem recent yen losses, raising the risk of direct intervention.
GOLD
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$102.37 (+2.05%)
5-Day Change: +$401.71 (+8.60%)
YTD Range: $4310.83 - $5,110.24
52-Week Range: $2,732.23 - $5,110.24
Weighted Alpha: +88.58
Gold exceeded the $5,000 target in overseas trading, spurred by strong safe-haven demand, a weak dollar, and another dramatic surge in silver. If sustainable, today would mark the sixth straight daily gain.
Focus later in the week will be on the Fed policy announcement on Wednesday. A hold is widely anticipated. Perhaps only an exceptionally hawkish statement, suggesting the next move could be a hike, would be sufficient to trigger a much-needed correction in gold. That seems unlikely.
Gold-backed ETFs continue to attract investor interest. The ETFs saw inflows of 34.5 tonnes in the week ended 23-Jan. All regions were net buyers, but Asian investors led the charge last week. It was the twelfth straight weekly inflow.
The push above $5,000 shifted focus to the $5,180.79 Fibonacci objective. If this level also gives way, $5,200 and the next Fibonacci level at $5,268.49 would be in play. While the market remains quite overextended and vulnerable to correction, the trade seems inclined to remain focused on buying strategies.
On the downside, intraday support at $5,055.20/53.21 protects the more important $4,990.67/66 level. Secondary support is marked by Friday's low at $4,900.53.
SILVER
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$6.071 (+5.88%)
5-Day Change: +$14.717 (+15.60%)
YTD Range: $71.429 - $110.874
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $110.874
Weighted Alpha: +330.85
Silver surged dramatically right from the open, notching new all-time highs above $110. During the U.S. session, the white metal traded with a 170-handle before selling pressures surfaced.
One might argue that this market has become detached from reality, but one could also say that this is a market that is repricing reality after five years of supply deficits. The market accelerated dramatically to the upside after China imposed export controls at the start of the new year.
So, where is the price reality? Industrial users are already thrifting as best they can. Average silver loadings for photovoltaic cells, for example, were reportedly reduced 20% in 2024 alone. Further cuts likely occurred in 2025. However, because of silver's unique properties, substitution is not expected to make a meaningful dent in demand.
Even with today's more than $6 retreat from the highs, the white metal is still up nearly 6% today. The midpoint of today's massive $14 range is at $110.542. Despite the magnitude of the sell-off, I can't say with any degree of certainty that even a short-term high is in place. A lower close (below $103.419) would be a little more telling from a technical perspective.
Today's Asian low at $103.379 protects the $100 zone. More substantial support is marked by Friday's low at $96.184.
A close above $112 would be suggestive of further strength. Another round of new highs above $117.705 would favor a push to $120, with potential to the next tier of Fibonacci resistance at $128.721.
Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com
Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.
Gold nears $5,000, as silver surges above $100
Outside Market Developments: This week delivered a classic dose of market whiplash: early geopolitical jitters sparked by President Trump's aggressive push on Greenland and related tariff threats drove risk aversion before a swift de-escalation triggered a sharp two-day risk-on rally. Heading into the weekend, U.S. shares are little changed, but there's still enough uncertainty out there to keep safe-haven assets underpinned.
U.S. economic data this week were generally favorable, showing economic resilience and sticky, but steady inflation. BEA revised Q3'25 GDP to 4.4% y/y. Headline and core PCE inflation held around 2.8% y/y. Solid disposable income gains led to a 0.5% rise in consumer spending in November. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for January was revised up to a five-month high of 56.4.
Strength in the economy eroded dovish Fed bets in advance of next week's FOMC meeting. Fed funds futures are no longer pricing 50 bps of easing this year. The next 25 bps cut has been pushed to September.
The hawkish tilt hasn't done much to underpin the greenback. The dollar index tumbled to a 16-week low, returning considerable credence to the underlying downtrend as mounting worries about the unpredictability of the Trump administration stoked the "sell-America" trade.
The BoJ held its policy rate steady at 0.75% in a widely expected decision. The vote was 8-1 with one hawkish dissenter. Governor Ueda signaled readiness to monitor the rapid rise in JGB yields amid the snap election backdrop, though no immediate further tightening was indicated.
Japanese PM Takaichi dissolved the lower house of parliament on Friday in advance of a snap general election on 8-Feb, just three months after she became Japan's first female premier. Takaichi, a hard-line conservative, called for an early vote in hopes of leveraging her personal popularity to seek a fresh public mandate for her leadership and policies on economic revival, inflation control, defense enhancements, and security issues.
Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) experienced significant volatility this week, with long-end yields surging to record highs early on (40-year yield hitting over 4.2% and the 30-year above 3.9%) amid fiscal concerns from Prime Minister Takaichi's snap election announcement and proposed tax cuts/spending increases, before partially rebounding later in the week as the Bank of Japan held rates steady at 0.75% and signaled readiness to intervene if needed.
The yen fell to an 18-month low against the dollar last week, weighed by mounting fiscal worries. However, the yen jumped to two-week highs following the BoJ policy decision, spurred by heightened worries about intervention.
The WEF summit in Davos wraps up after a week of talks covering a wide range of global challenges like economic growth, geopolitics, technology, people, and the planet, while producing reports, fostering initiatives, and building trust across stakeholders. President Trump's assertive rhetoric on trade, Greenland, and alliances seemed to dominate discussions.
Additionally, leaders emphasized the urgent need to shift toward responsible AI deployment and execution, while addressing economic concerns like 3.3% global growth forecasts tempered by trade frictions, debt risks, asset bubbles, and the imperative to unlock new growth and energy sources.
GOLD
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$13.42 (-0.27%)
5-Day Change: +$345.80 (+7.52%)
YTD Range: $4,310.83 - $4,967.13
52-Week Range: $2,732.23 - $4,967.13
Weighted Alpha: +84.73
Gold reached record levels every day this week, moving within striking distance of $5,000 on Friday. The yellow metal is on track for its third straight higher weekly close of the year.
Safe-haven demand remains robust, driven by a myriad of geopolitical and trade tensions; the kerfuffle over Greenland is just the latest. Mounting worries about another U.S. government shutdown, and the deteriorating fiscal condition are adding weight to the dollar's sell-off and stoking the bid in gold.
Japan's fiscal condition is another source of concern, driving flight to quality. Takaichi's bid to consolidate power with a snap election is far from being a certainty.
According to the World Gold Council, the PBoC "announced gold purchases every month in 2025, ending the year with a 27t addition and pushing China’s official gold holdings to 2,306t, 8.5% of total reserves." However, that only ranks fourth in terms of the biggest addition to reserves last year. The National Bank of Poland ranks number one with 95 tonnes. The National Bank of Kazakhstan (49 tonnes) and Banco Central do Brasil (43 tonnes) also bought more gold.
China’s "official" gold holdings now stand at 2,306 tonnes, 8.5% of total reserves. Many believe them to be much higher.
The holdings of Chinese ETFs doubled in 2025 to 248 tonnes, and AUM surged 248%. Meanwhile, volume on the Shanghai Futures Exchange reached record levels.
The Reserve Bank of India slowed its gold buying in 2025 amid record-high prices, but domestic demand remained resilient, supported by investment demand. Inflows into Indian ETFs were "unprecedented," according to the WGC, while digital gold continues to gain popularity.
The key $4993.96/$5,000 came within striking distance on Friday before profit-taking emerged. A true test of this level is still considered likely, and penetration would shift focus to the next Fibonacci projections at $5,180.79 and $5,268.49.
Friday's intraday low at 4,900.53 marks first support. A minor level at $4,887.59 protects daily lows from the week at $4,773.50, $4,757.50, and $4,660.05. The low for the week set on Monday is well protected at $4,599.09, and the rising 20-day moving average is at $4,562.15.
SILVER
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$2.817 (+2.93%)
5-Day Change: +$9.603 (+10.65%)
YTD Range: $71.429 - $99.781
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $99.781
Weighted Alpha: +294.65
Silver remains quite volatile, but the bias remains unquestionably bullish. The white metal posted new all-time highs in four of five sessions this week, surging above $100 and $101 on Friday. Silver will notch its third straight higher weekly close and is up more than 40% since the first of the year!
The realities of supply and demand, desire for safe havens, a weak dollar, and good ol' FOMO continue to stoke the bid. Weighted alpha is above 300, reflecting unprecedented momentum.
There's not much on the upside until the next Fibonacci projections at $111.965 and $112.646. Can we get there without some kind of meaningful correction or period of consolidation? Nothing would surprise me at this point, but you still need to be prepared for extreme volatility.
Minor intraday support at $100.475 protects the $100 zone. Today's U.S. low at $98.650 is a more substantial barrier ahead of the low for the day at $96.184.
Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com
Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.
Good morning. The precious metals are mostly higher in early U.S. trading.
U.S. calendar features S&P Global Flash PMIs, Michigan Consumer Sentiment (final).
Gold reached a fresh record high before simmering tensions over Greenland ebbed somewhat
OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: President Trump's highly anticipated speech at the WEF in Davos is moving markets today. While Trump's comments certainly stoked the anger of many, he explicitly ruled out using military force to acquire Greenland.
Additionally, the President announced via Truth Social that the U.S. will not impose additional tariffs on Europe after "a very productive meeting" with Mark Rutte, Secretary General of NATO, in which they formed "the framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland and, in fact, the entire Arctic Region." We have not seen any specifics on the "framework" at this point, and Rutte has not commented publicly yet, but you can bet the press corps is after him.
Markets have swung decisively back to risk-on. A significant portion of yesterday's "sell-America" trade has been unwound today.
Adding to Tuesday's market turmoil was a rout in Japanese Government Bonds that caused long yields to surge to record highs. Investors fled Japanese debt amid fears over PM Takaichi's call for a snap election, and proposed fiscal stimulus, including a two-year suspension of the 8% consumption tax on food, which could worsen Japan's already massive debt burden.
Japanese markets calmed somewhat today, but 40-year yields remain above 4%, a handle that had never been seen before Monday. Volatility is likely to remain high ahead of the February 8 election.
Speaking in Davos, Ken Griffin, the founder and CEO of Citadel, warned that "the bond vigilantes are back" and could "come out and extract their price" if fiscal irresponsibility continues. Japan seems to be in the crosshairs currently, but the U.S. could be a ripe target too if we don't start making some inroads toward improving our fiscal situation.
While the U.S. economy remains resilient, there's plenty to be concerned about. The U.S. national debt is expected to exceed the $40 trillion threshold sometime this year, an ever-increasing drag on growth. Add to that the looming threat of another government shutdown, concerns about Fed independence, and a continuation of the macro de-dollarization trend seems likely.
MBA Mortgage Market Index jumped 14.1% in the week ended 16-Jan, versus +28.5% in the previous week. The 30-year mortgage rate dipped to a 16-month low of 6.16%, versus 6.18% in the previous week.
NAR Pending Home Sales fell 9.3% in December, well below expectations of -0.3%, versus +3.3% in November. The decline ended a four-month streak of gains and marked the steepest drop since April 2020 during the pandemic. “[T]he decline in pending home sales could be a result of dampened consumer enthusiasm about buying a home when there are so few options listed for sale,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.
Construction Spending rose 0.5% in October, above expectations of +0.1%, versus -0.6% in September.
GOLD
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$103.46 (+2.17%)
5-Day Change: +$219.13 (+4.74%)
YTD Range: $4310.83 - $4,887.59
52-Week Range: $2,732.23 - $4,887.59
Weighted Alpha: +79.85
Gold extended to a new record high of $4,887.59 in overseas trading on Wednesday amid ongoing safe-haven demand in advance of President Trump's speech in Davos. While I would hardly call his comments "calming," the assurance that Greenland would not be taken by force and the walking back of tariff threats eased tensions enough to knock the yellow metal off its highs. Nonetheless, gold is on track for a third straight higher close.
The breach of the $4,800 target and the approach to $4,900 bolsters confidence in the bullish scenario that calls for the attainment of the long-standing $5,000 objective, which happens to correspond closely with the next Fibonacci level at $4,993.96. Beyond that, focus would shift to $5,180.79.
With 2026 off to a gangbuster start, it's not surprising to see that gold-backed ETFs saw solid inflows of 35.8 tonnes last week, with 27.2 tonnes attributed to North American investors. It was the eleventh straight weekly inflow and the largest since 17-Oct'25.
Besides the technical overbought condition, there doesn't seem to be much to suggest we're close to a top in gold. While tensions over Greenland seem to have abated, there are still plenty of geopolitical hotspots to worry about. As noted above, the de-dollarization trade could gain traction amid concerns about another potential government shutdown and a politicized Fed. Meanwhile, the Fed is still expected to ease this year, perhaps as much as 50 bps, and the global central banks' buying spree is likely to continue.
The low for the day at $4,757.50 looks to be well protected heading into the close. This level protects lows from earlier in the week at $4,660.05 and $4,599.09.
SILVER
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.183 (+0.19%)
5-Day Change: +$0.155 (+0.17%)
YTD Range: $71.429 - $95.865
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $95.865
Weighted Alpha: +261.31
Silver was largely corrective on Wednesday, retracing from Tuesday's record high at $95.865 and registering its first lower close of the week. However, losses continue to be viewed as corrective and stalled shy of the $90 support zone. By the close, the white metal was nearly 3% off the intraday low as volatile conditions persisted.
Concerns about that volatility and profit taking ahead of the holiday weekend resulted in net outflows from SLV last week of $686.41M, or approximately 7.61 Moz. A sustained correction or period of consolidation would likely draw those investors back in, but it could just as easily be another bout of FOMO if the rally continues.
The next upside target is $96.571 based on a Fibonacci projection. Above that, $100 is very much in play.
Today's low at $90.446 bolsters the significance of the whole $90 zone. Below that, I'd be watching $86.439 and the rising 20-day MA at $82.970.
Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com
Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.
Gold and silver reach fresh records for a third day this week
OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: This week's inflation data were mixed. Both headline and core CPI held steady in December, at 2.7% y/y and 2.6% y/y, respectively. Meanwhile, PPI warmed to 3.0% y/y in November, versus 2.8% in October and 2.7% in September. Core CPI also rebounded to a four-month high of 3.0%.
Perhaps not surprisingly, the White House was quick to celebrate the CPI print as evidence that "inflation is firmly under control," dialing up the pressure on Jerome Powell to deliver a meaningful rate cut. However, the rise in PPI may indicate ongoing upstream wholesale price pressures that could feed into future consumer inflation.
Ongoing pressure from the White House and the recent DoJ subpoenas are stoking concerns that the Fed could lose its independence. Powell's term as Fed Chair ends in May, and it's safe to assume Trump will appoint an ardent dove to helm the central bank.
Rate cut bets for this year remain little changed based on Fed funds futures. The trade continues to anticipate 50 bps of easing this year, but further cuts aren't expected until H2.
Reports are circulating that President Trump has decided on U.S. military intervention against Iran in response to the regime's deadly crackdown on anti-government protests, which has killed over 2,400 demonstrators. Multiple sources, including Reuters and European officials, suggest that strikes could occur within the next 24 hours.
Trump continues to push for U.S. control or annexation of Greenland, declaring that "anything less than" full U.S. ownership is "unacceptable" for national security reasons. Greenland and Denmark have firmly rejected these overtures, and concerns about fracturing NATO unity are mounting.
MBA Mortgage Applications Index surged 28.5% to a 16-week high of 348 for the week ended 9-Jan. The 30-year mortgage rate fell to 6.18%, nearly a three-year low.
PPI rose 0.1% in October, below expectations of +0.2%, versus +0.6% in September; 2.8% y/y, versus 3.0% in September. Core +0.3% m/m; 2.9% y/y, steady versus September.
PPI rose 0.2% in November, in line with expectations, versus +0.1% in October; 2.8% y/y, versus 3.0% in September. Core UNCH, below expectations of +0.2%, versus +0.3% in October; 3.0% y/y, versus 2.9% in October.
Retail Sales rose 0.6% in November, above expectations of +0.4%, versus -0.1% in October.
Existing Home Sales rose 5.07% to a 4.35M pace in December, above expectations of 4.21M, versus 4.14M in November.
GOLD
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$43.81 (+0.96%)
5-Day Change: +$181.19 (+4.07%)
YTD Range: $4310.83 - $4,642.74
52-Week Range: $2,670.32 - $4,642.74
Weighted Alpha: +73.51
Gold extended its run to new all-time highs for a third consecutive day this week, as expectations of U.S. military action in support of Iranian protesters boosted safe-haven demand. The yellow metal also continues to be underpinned by silver's explosive rally.
While the dollar is catching some haven interest as well, I don't see it as much of a headwind for gold. The dollar index is trading near six-week highs. A breach of 99.26/31 would suggest potential for a return to the 100 zone.
Existing Fibonacci objectives at $4,686.61 and 4719.43 are within striking distance for gold. Beyond that, $4,800 and $4,900 would attract, with the long-standing $5,000 target very much in play.
The $4,600 zone marks initial support. Additional supports at $4,586.66 and $4,571.16 protect the low for the week set on Monday at $4,509.87.
SILVER
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$3.635 (+4.18%)
5-Day Change: +$14.674 (+18.77%)
YTD Range: $71.429 - $92.909
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $92.909
Weighted Alpha: +265.63
Silver continues to press deeper into uncharted territory as its remarkable rally continues. The white metal is up more than 30% YTD, +16% this week so far, and more than 7% just today.
Chinese export controls on silver, which went into effect at the beginning of the year, added to persistent supply concerns in a market that has faced a structural supply deficit for five years. China ranks second in terms of global mine output, but they control 60-70% of the world's refined silver trade.
Add to that the current geopolitical tensions, domestic political unrest, expectations for further Fed easing, worries about Fed independence, mounting fiscal concerns, and ongoing de-dollarization, and it becomes a bit of a perfect storm. Silver remains "cheap" when compared to the other precious metals, but has the added benefit of robust and growing industrial demand.
Technical objectives at $88.297, $90, and $91.009 have been satisfied and exceeded this week. Additional gains toward $100 are a real possibility, although conditions are likely to remain volatile. Intervening targets are noted at $95 and $96.571.
Initial support is at the $92 zone, which protects $90 and the earlier U.S. low at $89.727. The overseas low $86.940 looks to be well protected at this point, but when the longs finally believe this market has gone far enough and requires correction, silver can go down just as fast (if not faster) than it went up.
Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com
Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.