Zaner Daily Precious Metals Commentary
Tuesday, July 8, 2025Gold eases on trade and ceasefire optimism, firmer dollar
OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Israeli PM Netanyahu met on Monday with President Trump, stoking optimism about a ceasefire in Gaza. Both Israel and Hamas have reportedly accepted a US-sponsored framework that begins with a 60-day ceasefire, but progress toward a permanent end to the fighting remains elusive.
As long as the two combatants are talking in Qatar, there is reason for hope. “I don’t think that I can give any timeline at the moment, but I can say right now that we will need time for this,” said Qatar’s foreign ministry spokesperson.
With the July 9 tariff deadline looming, the White House has ramped up pressure on trading partners that have not yet struck deals, but also provided additional time for negotiation. President Trump sent letters to at least 14 countries on Monday, including Japan and South Korea, notifying them that tariffs will take effect on August 1.
More letters are expected to go out this week. And Trump has vowed that there will be no extensions beyond August 1. We'll see...
The EU is rushing to make a preliminary trade deal with the U.S. this week to avoid a jump in tariffs from 10% to 50%. However, there are some disagreements within the bloc, as some member countries will benefit more than others.
Markets seem optimistic about an EU deal and liked that the deadline was pushed back several weeks. However, a fair amount of uncertainty prevails.
That uncertainty factored into the RBA's decision to buck expectations and hold steady on rates. "While the final scope of US tariffs and policy responses in other countries remains unknown, financial market prices have rebounded with an expectation that the most extreme outcomes are likely to be avoided," according to the policy statement.
Fed rate cut expectations have been tempered since last week's release of better-than-expected U.S. jobs data for June. While easing is still likely to resume later in the year, 50 bps of cuts are no longer fully priced in for year-end.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index slipped 0.2 points to 98.6 in June, versus 98.8 in May.
Small business optimism remained steady in June while uncertainty fell. Taxes remain the top issue on Main Street, but many others are still concerned about labor quality and high labor costs. – NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg
GOLD
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$12.41 (-0.37%)
5-Day Change: -$11.52 (-0.35%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,352.28 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +36.65
Gold edged below $3,300, weighed by optimism on trade, potential for a ceasefire in Gaza, and a firmer dollar. However, price action remains well contained within last week's range and the broader consolidative pattern.
Secondary support at $3,256.02 (30-Jun low) may be the short-term attraction. The 100-day moving average has risen to the $3,200 zone, providing good intervening support ahead of the range low at $3,127.12 (15-May low).
However, ongoing central bank and investor demand underpins the market. Global ETFs saw 26.1 tonnes of inflows in the week ended 27-Jun. North American investors continue to lead the charge, adding 13.8 tonnes to holdings.

According to the World Gold Council, collective ETF holdings rose 397 tonnes to 3,616 tonnes in the first six months of the year. Total AUM surged 41% to $383 bln in H1.
Meanwhile, central banks bought a net total of 427 tonnes of gold in the first half of 2025. While that's slower than the record 483 tonnes bought in H1'24, official sector demand remains robust, and a recent survey of central bankers suggests that will continue.
A rebound above the midpoint of the range at $3,311.51 would return focus to today's overseas high at $3,344.27. Penetration of the latter would bode well for tests above $3,400. However, the 16-Jun high at $3,449.14 must be cleared to put the record high at $3,500 back in play.
SILVER
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.037 (+0.10%)
5-Day Change: +$0.691 (+1.92%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $37.288
52-Week Range: $26.524 - $37.288
Weighted Alpha: +24.23
Silver dropped back to the 20-day moving average, weighed by the retreat in gold and a firmer dollar. However, optimism on trade provides some underpinning, and price action has been confined to Monday's range thus far. The gold/silver ratio remains near recent lows, just above 90.
Yesterday's failure to sustain gains above $37 presents some risk of a double top, but the confirmation point for that pattern is well protected at $35.369 (24-Jun low). Intervening support is marked by Monday's low at $36.201, which is fairly close to the midpoint of the recent range.
A move back above today's overseas highs at $36.864 would favor further tests above $37. The more substantial $37.198/288 zone must be negated to bolster confidence in previously established upside objectives at $38.750 (Fibonacci) and $40 (psychological).
Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com
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