Blog posts tagged with 'platinum'

Gold and silver poised for third straight lower weekly closes

Outside Market Developments: U.S. consumer inflation data were largely in line with expectations. CPI rose 0.4% in August on expectations of the same, versus +0.1% in July. The annualized rate held steady at 3.4%. Core CPI rose 0.3%, above expectations of +0.2%, versus +0.2% in July; +2.4% y/y, unchanged from July.

The CPI data is benign but still sticky above target, and I expect higher energy prices to start percolating through to consumers this month. Headline PPI for August accelerated to 5.4%, above expectations of 5.3%, up from 4.8% in July.

Hotter inflation in August (and into September) was largely driven by the rebound in oil prices as fighting between the U.S. and Iran intensified. Brent crude hit a four-month high above $111 in earlier trading today, before retreating into the range.

Perhaps most significantly, diesel fuel prices in the U.S. have reached record highs above $6 per gallon. This will drive up shipping, grocery, and goods prices for months as higher freight costs cascade through the entire supply chain.

Taking the overall inflation picture into account, traders drove the probability of a rate hike next week to 85%. That's up from 72.4% yesterday, 59.4% a week ago, and 48.4% a month ago. Fed funds futures now imply 44 bps of tightening by year-end.

10-year Treasury yields traded above 5% for the first time in nearly three years. The dollar index jumped to new highs for the week before moderating later in the session. Yen strength in advance of next week's anticipated BoJ rate hike – and ongoing veiled threats of intervention – continues to pose a headwind for the dollar, as does America's worsening fiscal situation.

I maintain a healthy degree of skepticism about a rate hike at the September FOMC meeting, despite today's action in Fed funds futures. Given the 9-3 vote in July, are the subsequent data sufficient to garner four more hawkish votes? It strikes me as a heavy lift for the hawks. Even if Chairman Warsh is swayed this time, can he build the necessary consensus?

All that remains to be seen. I would suggest $6+ diesel could be a significant tipping point if the Fed is inclined to try and get out in front of those price pressures. Additionally, this week's ECB rate hike and the expected BoJ rate hike give the Fed a little more leeway for tightening.

Next week's focus will be squarely on policy decisions by the Fed (16-Sep) and the BoJ (18-Sep). Given this week's oil price surge and August's inflation data, the trade now favors a 25 bps Fed rate hike. The BoJ is widely expected to raise its policy rate from 1.00% to 1.25%, and signal that further tightening is likely. 


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$20.89 (+0.48%)
5-Day Change: -$2.363 (-3.57%)
YTD Range: $3,945.52 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,626.99 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +11.02

Gold initially dipped to a new low for the week below $4,300 in reaction to today's CPI print. While the yellow metal subsequently firmed to set fresh intraday highs above $4,400, a third straight lower weekly close appears likely.



Despite the market pricing in a strong likelihood of a Fed rate hike next week (85-90%), gold remains confined to the previous week's range when that probability was less than 60%. Persistent dollar weakness is providing some underpinning for gold. The dollar index is poised for a second consecutive lower weekly close amid yen strength and mounting fiscal concerns. 

Despite the rise in rate-hike jitters, gold may be quietly reasserting its classic role as an inflation hedge. Amid sticky inflation readings, ongoing geopolitical energy shocks, and rising worries that dollar devaluation is the "easy" path to address massive debt, the yellow metal may once again show its value when real purchasing power is under siege.

Metals Focus notes that official sector gold demand recovered in July and August "as diversification drivers persist." The Precious Metals Weekly went on to note that "expansionary US fiscal policy and concerns over the Fed’s independence have further undermined confidence in both the dollar and US Treasuries."

Gold as a reserve asset carries zero counterparty or default risk and cannot be debased by any government’s fiscal or monetary policies. Sounds pretty appealing. If such diversification is smart for global central banks, it's smart for individual investors as well.

A close today above the 100-day moving average at $4,335.49 would be somewhat encouraging. Today's early U.S. high at $4,402.05 protects the highs from earlier in the week, from $4,432.14 to  $4,442.87. Above that, more important resistances are marked by the 20-day MA at $4,463.19 and the previous week's high at $4,510.64.

Today's intraday low at $4,296.89 now provides a solid intervening barrier ahead of last week's low at $4,283.60. The latter will correspond closely with the rising 50-day MA early in the new week. If gold sets new lows for September, the $4,232.32 Fibonacci level would be back in play.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.268 (+0.42%)
5-Day Change: -$2.363 (-3.57%)
YTD Range: $54.778 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $41.142 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +29.35

Silver is trading higher on the day, but initially fell to a three-week low as rate ike expectations surged in the wake of today's CPI data. Despite the intraday rebound, the white metal is likely to notch a third straight lower weekly close.



Silver may be garnering some underpinning from the broad commodities rally that has pushed major commodity indexes to multi-year highs. The US-Iran conflict has certainly been a contributing factor, driving energy prices sharply higher and impeding the flow of other key commodities including fertilizers, helium and aluminum.

This is amplified by structural demand from the AI and energy-transition boom. Copper set a record high of $6.8073 in August and remains generally well bid amid growing demand from data centers and grids. Lingering supply constraints in both copper and silver play a role, and $6+ diesel will certainly keep upward pressure on mining costs.

Silver has formed an outside week, clouding the short-term picture somewhat. That range is likely to hold into the Fed decision on Wednesday. Today's low at $63.045 now provides an important barrier ahead of the midpoint of the Jun-Aug range at $62.941, the 19-Aug low at $62.574, and the 50-day MA at $62.541.

On the upside, Wednesday's high at $68.314 is the key to unlocking further tests above $70. An eventual breach of the late August high at $71.104 is needed to reestablish the Jul-Aug uptrend. I continue to believe the $80 level must be regained to revive confidence in the longer-term uptrend.  


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver higher, helped by a weaker dollar

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: The Iran war continues to escalate after U.S. forces struck five Iranian tanker ships near Kharg Island in response to Iran's ongoing attempts to hit U.S. warships with missiles. Iran retaliated by launching a barrage of ballistic missiles at a U.S. airbase in Jordan. This will assuredly beget retaliation from America, and the cycle continues.

Brent crude surged to four-month highs above $100. Ultimately, this feeds the inflation loop, but at this point the trade seems to be waiting for hard inflation data later in the week. August PPI comes out on Thursday, while CPI will be released on Friday. For now, the probability of a September rate hike is holding steady around 60%.

The dollar index slipped to a three-week low before rebounding modestly ahead of the August low at 98.56. The greenback is under pressure from a stronger yen, driven by rising expectations of a BoJ rate hike next week, comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent warning traders not to bet against the yen, hints of potential further intervention, and the related unwinding of yen-funded carry trades.



Mounting U.S. fiscal concerns are certainly a headwind for the dollar as well. The national debt is now in excess of $40 trillion, and debt servicing is over $1 trillion. This puts the Fed in the awkward position of having to weigh inflation-fighting against the risk of making Washington's fiscal math even worse.

If the Fed were inclined, it could "inflate away" the debt by allowing loose monetary policy and/or increasing the money supply. However, this shifts the cost onto anyone holding dollars, as inflation and a weaker currency eat into their purchasing power.

In encouraging the Fed to ease – or at least remain accommodating – the Trump administration hopes that growth will be enough to outrun the debt, since a bigger economy makes existing debt easier to carry relative to GDP. It is also a serious test of Fed independence. The risk, of course, is that cheap money without matching growth stokes inflation instead, leaving the debt burden and the dollar's value both worse off. 


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$44.12 (+1.01%)
5-Day Change: +$9.15 (+0.21%)
YTD Range: $3,945.52 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,614.69 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +13.45

Gold is rebounding, spurred by a weaker dollar and heightened haven interest amid escalating Middle East tensions. Price action remains confined to last week's range, with the trade shrugging off the inflationary implications of $100+ oil and awaiting PPI and CPI data later in the week.



There is some hope that the impending inflation data for August will provide some clarity about the Fed's next move when the FOMC convenes next week. Barring a major upside surprise, and despite the hawkish bias in Fed funds futures, I still think the Fed is most likely to remain on pause.

If that is indeed the case, the longer-term uptrend in gold should resume asserting itself. A climb back above the 20-day moving average would confirm potential for a challenge of last week's high at $4,510.64. Above that, the 200-day MA at $4,541.35 and the August high at $4,696.31 would be back in play.

Central bank buying, driven by reserve diversification (dedollarization), has been a major force behind the rally in gold. Movements of existing official-sector gold reinforce the rationalization.  

The Dutch central bank moved 86 tonnes of gold from New York and Ottawa to London between March and August, framing it as "crisis preparedness" amid rising geopolitical tensions. Gold held at the Bank of England is considered the world's most tradable and quickest to deploy if needed. However, some view the move as a sign that even close allies want their reserves further from U.S. jurisdiction.

France finished removing its gold from the NY Fed early this year, and all 2,437 tonnes (the world's fourth-largest reserve) is now on French soil. Germany repatriated all of its gold a decade ago.

Hot inflation prints could drive more hawkish Fed bets, underpin the dollar, and weigh on gold. Today's overseas low at $4,341.96 reinforces the significance of the 100-day MA. If this support area gives way, a retest of last week's low at $4,283.60 would become likely.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.480 (+0.73%)
5-Day Change: +$0.774 (+1.18%)
YTD Range: $54.778 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $40.734 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +35.76

Silver has reached fresh two-week highs, bouyed primarily by weakness in the dollar. The white metal is up more than 2% this week, whereas gold is still modestly lower on the week.



Last week's solid NFP print suggests a resilient labor market and implies persistent strength in the broader, consumer-driven economy. This durability may be sufficient to sustain household spending on electronics, jewelry, and other silver-containing consumer products, especially as Christmas buying ramps up, thereby supporting demand for the metal.

Today's tests back above the 100-day moving average are encouraging, but I still believe $80 must be regained to return confidence to the underlying uptrend. Last week's high at $71.104 and the rising 200-day MA at $73.130 provide key intervening barriers.

On the downside, I'm watching the 20-day moving average at $66.637 on a close basis. Today's Asian low at $65.521 and Monday's low at $65.414 protect Friday's low at $64.779 and last week's low at $63.325. 


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver rebound from initial NFP-inspired losses

Outside Market Developments: U.S. nonfarm payrolls jumped 162k in August, beating expectations (+58k) by a wide margin. July's negative print (-23k) was erased with a +44k revision. June was revised up to +31k from +20k. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.3%, in line with expectations, versus +0.2% in July; +3.1% y/y, down from 3.2% in July. The average workweek ticked up to 34.4 hours from 34.3 in July.

The labor force participation rate rebounded to a three-month high of 61.6%. The household survey recorded a 569k surge in the number of people reporting having a job, the largest monthly gain since January 2025.

Today’s data reverses a four-month weakening trend in payrolls and underscores the U.S. labor market’s continued resilience. Potential for a September Fed rate cut immediately rebounded from a 50/50 proposition to 60/40 based on Fed funds futures.

Treasury yields rose, particularly on the short end, while the dollar strengthened and major stock indexes traded mixed to slightly lower. Amid uncertainty stoked by the stronger-than-expected jobs data, and with key inflation data still ahead next week, investors are adopting cautious positioning and lighter risk exposure heading into the long Labor Day weekend.

President Trump added to the uncertainty with a post on Truth Social praising the solid jobs report and arguing that the stronger U.S. economy and creditworthiness mean the Fed should immediately lower interest rates to the lowest levels in the world. He warned the central bank and Chair Kevin Warsh to “get smart” and “BE PATRIOTS,” threatening to halt trade with countries running deficits with the U.S. if rates are not cut.

Fed Governor Waller said on Thursday he is leaning toward keeping interest rates unchanged at the September FOMC meeting if the forthcoming August inflation data continues to show progress toward the 2% target. He urged policymakers to “give disinflation a chance,” while noting he would support a rate hike if the data come in hotter than expected.

The Japanese yen posted its strongest weekly gain in over a month, rising roughly 2.2–2.5% against the dollar as USD/JPY dropped from near 160 to as low as 155.30 amid growing bets on a more hawkish Bank of Japan and speculation of intervention. This sharp yen strength contributed to broader pressure on the dollar, which will finish the week lower against a basket of currencies.

Renewed hostilities between the U.S. and Iran continued this week, with American strikes on Iranian targets and Iranian retaliatory strikes on U.S. positions in the region. Brent crude jumped to six-week highs and looks poised to end the week about 6% higher, adding to inflation concerns. In parallel, Israel reported capturing a strategic ridge in southern Lebanon from Hezbollah, further entrenching its presence there.

The Trump administration finalized a landmark oil agreement with Venezuela granting the U.S. significant control and offtake rights over more than 65 billion barrels of proven reserves. While the deal aims to boost Venezuelan output and secure a long-term, low-cost hemispheric energy supply, the news hasn't really provided any price relief yet.

Russian President Putin said on Thursday there is a chance of reaching a peace agreement to end the war in Ukraine, noting that countries including the U.S. and China are ready to support a settlement. He stressed, however, that the conflict must ultimately be resolved directly by Russia and Ukraine themselves, while accusing Kyiv of actions that complicate bilateral talks.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.52 (-0.01%)
5-Day Change: +$13.30 (+0.30%)
YTD Range: $3,945.52 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,540.30 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +17.45

Gold retreated initially in reaction to the NFP beat as September rate-hike bets were revived and the dollar firmed.  However, intraday losses below $4,300 could not be sustained, as the trade adjusted positions ahead of the long holiday weekend and looked ahead to key inflation data next week. A close below $4,454.11 would result in a second consecutive lower weekly close.



Those inflation reports are due late next week, so gold is likely to trade in a consolidative range until the PPI and CPI data provide a clearer signal on the Fed’s likely path at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. The 100-day and 200-day moving averages currently offer a reasonable trading range.

A climb above the 200-day MA at $4,538.78 would offer encouragement to the bull camp, returning focus to last week's high at $4,696.31. On the other hand, a retreat below the 100-day at $4,354.07 would suggest potential back to Wednesday's low at $4,283.60.

Long-term support for gold stems from its role as a hedge against persistent inflation, rising global debt levels, and the ongoing debasement of fiat currencies. Strong and sustained central-bank purchases, combined with structural demand from investors seeking portfolio diversification amid geopolitical uncertainty, further underpin the metal’s fundamental outlook.

Near-term headwinds for gold include the risk of sticky inflation readings next week that could reinforce expectations for a September Fed rate hike, supporting higher real yields and a stronger dollar. Stronger-than-expected economic data, such as today’s robust jobs report, may also sustain risk-on sentiment and reduce immediate safe-haven demand for the metal.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.145 (-0.22%)
5-Day Change: +$0.601 (+0.91%)
YTD Range: $54.778 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $40.547 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +41.30

Silver rebounded from intraday losses below $65 to reclaim the 20-day MA as the trade seemed disinclined to go short into the holiday weekend. A close above $66.327 is needed to avert a second straight lower weekly close.

 

As the 20- and 100-day MAs converge, the $66.429/$67.505 value area is worth noting for next week as the trade looks ahead to key inflation data that will set the tone heading into the September FOMC meeting. A convincing move above the 100-day would bode well for further short-term tests above $70.

Long-term support for silver stems from its dual role as both a monetary metal and a critical industrial commodity, particularly in solar panels, electric vehicles, and electronics amid the global energy transition. Structural supply constraints, combined with rising investment demand as a more affordable inflation hedge and portfolio diversifier, further underpin its fundamental outlook.

Like gold, evidence of sticky inflation next week would boost rate-hike bets, favoring higher real yields and a firm dollar. Stronger economic data may also boost risk appetite while raising concerns that higher rates could eventually weigh on industrial demand, adding volatility to the metal.

Below the 20-day MA, today's low at $64.779 protects the more important low for the week at $63.325. Below the latter, the halfway-back point of the July-August rally at $62.941 and the 19-Aug low at $62.574 are levels to watch.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver recover from multi-week lows on weak ADP print

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: The U.S. military continued to strike Iranian targets, including air defenses, radar, maritime assets, and mine-laying capabilities near the Strait of Hormuz. This prompted Iran to retaliate with ballistic missiles and drones targeting U.S. bases and assets in Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Iraq.

The heightened tensions have pushed Brent crude to six-week highs near $100. The rise in energy prices is amplifying inflation concerns and stoking more hawkish Fed expectations that were already on the rise in the wake of Fed chairman Warsh's Jackson Hole speech. "We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do," he said.

Prospects for a 25 bps rate hike this month stand at 66.2%, down slightly from yesterday, but up significantly from 36.6% a week ago. Fed funds futures suggest potential for 34.75 bps in tightening through year-end.

Private employers added 38k jobs in August according to the ADP National Employment Report, below expectations of +47k, versus an upward revised +46k in July (was +44k). It was the slowest pace of hiring since January. Job gains were heavily concentrated in education and health services, while manufacturing, professional services, and information sectors saw net job losses.

The ADP miss highlights ongoing labor market soft spots. Consequently, Friday’s August nonfarm payrolls report will move the needle on Fed policy expectations, based on which side of consensus (+58k) the print falls; a below-forecast reading would cool rate hike expectations, whereas signs of job market resilience could boost the likelihood of a rate increase at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting.

The Bank of Canada held its key overnight interest rate steady at 2.25% for the seventh consecutive meeting, maintaining a wait-and-see stance amid resilient Q2 growth. However, policymakers flagged heightened uncertainty and upside inflation risks stemming from rising Middle East tensions that are driving up energy prices, alongside newly introduced U.S. trade tariffs.

Financial markets widely anticipate the ECB to deliver a 25 basis point rate hike at its September 9-10 meeting, bringing the deposit facility rate to 2.50%. This expected tightening is primarily driven by persistent headline inflation – which rose to 3.3% in August – and concerns about ongoing energy price volatility.

At the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting in Asheville, North Carolina, global financial leaders underscored the resilience of the global economy while cautioning against rising debt risks, trade disruptions, and high borrowing costs. Under the U.S. presidency, discussions focused on easing regulatory burdens, securing energy supply chains, and fostering AI innovation, though the summit concluded without a joint communiqué due to sharp divides over language on non-market economic policies.

"Lowering debt risk" relies on voluntary frameworks and country-specific guidance. However, there are no mandatory debt-reduction targets, so reversal of the macro debt trend seems unlikely. Meanwhile, there was no joint communiqué because of China's rejected language targeting non-market economic policies, industrial subsidies, and massive export surpluses that the other 19 member nations condemned as unsustainable trade distortions.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$19.05 (-0.44%)
5-Day Change: -$263.84 (-5.74%)
YTD Range: $3,945.52 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,512.35 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +12.43

Gold fell to a four-week low below $4,300 in overseas trading as the trade continued to reprice Fed rate hike expectations in the wake of hawkish FedSpeak from Kevin Warsh last week and heightened Middle East tensions that pushed oil to six-week highs. However, today's soft ADP print sparked a recovery as the recent rally in the dollar index stalled well shy of 100.

 

More than half of the recent rally in gold was retraced, but more important Fibonacci support at $4,232.32 (61.8% retracement) remains protected. This level is bolstered by the rising 50-day moving average at $4,223.05.

A close back above the 100-day MA today would be mildly encouraging to the bull camp, although new highs for the week above $4,471.29 is really needed to return confidence to the scenario that had targeted the midpoint of this year's range at $4770.27. The rising 200-day MA at $4,536 and last week's high at $4,696.31 provide key intervening barriers.

The 100-day MA at $4,361.06 and minor chart support at $4325/23 protect the low for the day at $4,283.60. Below the latter, $4,232.32 and $4,223.05 would be vulnerable to tests.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.379 (-0.59%)
5-Day Change: -$3.761 (-5.52%)
YTD Range: $54.778 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $40.413 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +33.70

Silver is on the mend, recovering from four-week lows below $64 after the ADP miss sparked worries about continued labor market weakness ahead of Friday's NFP report. This shifts some of the recent focus away from inflation, tempering rate hike expectations somewhat.

   

Tuesday's fall below the 20-day moving average remains troubling, but the bull camp can take some comfort in that important supports at $62.941 (50% retrace of the Jul-Aug rally), $62.574 (19-Aug low) and $61.646 (50-day MA) were left unmolested.

The white metal must first regain the 20-day MA at $66.017 to take some of the pressure off the downside. Above that, Monday's high at $67.463 and the falling 100-day MA at $67.765 would be back in play. Above the 100-day, focus would return to last week's high at $71.104 and the rising 200-day MA at $72.890.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver poised for higher monthly closes, despite recent retreats

Outside Market Developments: In his first Jackson Hole speech as Fed Chair on Friday, Kevin Warsh struck a hawkish tone, emphasizing that inflation remains above the 2% PCE target (3.7% y/y in July), so the Fed’s predominant focus must be on prices and it “has work to do” if progress is insufficient. He described the economy as strong and resilient with labor markets at full employment, financial conditions not broadly restrictive, and potential productivity gains from AI, while rejecting traditional forward guidance in favor of a “quieter Fed” that avoids excessive policy predictions and lets markets assess the data.

“While this summer’s PCE and CPI readings were better than expected, they do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved,” said Warsh. Despite his aversion to forward guidance, he sure seemed to be guiding the trade away from its recent assessment that inflation is moderating and the potential for a September rate hike was waning.

Prospects for a 25 bps rate hike at the September FOMC meeting have jumped to 66.1%, up from 57.0% on Friday and 41.1% a week ago. That puts the probability back where it was about a month ago.

The vote in July was 9-3 to hold steady on policy. Warsh himself was one of the nine. Cleveland’s Beth Hammack, Minneapolis’s Neel Kashkari, and Dallas’s Lorie Logan were the dissenters who favored a 25 bps hike.

August CPI and PPI come out before the next FOMC meeting. Although oil prices have traded in a range and will end lower in August, the elevated energy prices from July could still produce modestly warmer inflation readings. Absent a significant hot surprise or a fresh energy shock, I believe the Fed remains on hold.

August jobs data comes out on Friday. Median expectations are +58k payrolls and a steady unemployment rate of 4.1%. Evidence of ongoing labor market weakness could absolutely derail the rebound in hawkishness.

The dollar index has been unable to sustain the two-week highs set on Friday, with the 100-day MA providing resistance.
Debasement worries prevail in the wake of U.S. debt exceeding the $40 trillion threshold and the Treasury's long-bond buyback plans, and focus shifts to upcoming data. The dollar appears poised for a second straight lower monthly close.

The U.S. conducted airstrikes on Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, ending a roughly one-month pause in direct attacks on Iranian territory. Washington said the limited operation targeted Revolutionary Guard forces preparing to launch rockets carrying sea mines into the strategic waterway.

Iran responded on Monday by firing ballistic missiles at U.S. military bases in Jordan and claiming strikes on targets in the UAE. Iranian President Pezeshkian stated that further war is not in Iran’s interest and called for dialogue, while President Trump vowed a strong American response.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$1.40 (-0.03%)
5-Day Change: -$207.14 (-4.45%)
YTD Range: $3,945.52 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,404.53 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +16.58

Gold starts the week lower, extending Friday’s decline after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks revived expectations of a September rate hike. Even so, the yellow metal is on track to finish August with a gain of more than 9%, its strongest monthly performance since January.



A setback in the dollar stemming from heightened debasement concerns provides some underpinning, as does heightened geopolitical risks, strengthening investor interest and seasonal influences. As noted last week, I expect setbacks to attract buying interest, especially given that a September rate hike still strikes me as a long shot.

Losses below the rising 20-day moving average at $4,429.84 have proven difficult to sustain thus far, leaving the more important 100-day MA at $4,370.19 well protected. Chart support at $4,325.73/$4,311.40 should keep the 50-day MA ($4,210.89) at bay.

Initial resistance is marked by today's Asian high at $4,471.29. The rising 200-day MA at $4,533.92 and the halfwayback point of the recent decline at $4,546.83 must be cleared to return confidence to the bullish objective at  $4,777.59.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.851 (+1.28%)
5-Day Change: -$2.340 (-3.39%)
YTD Range: $54.778 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $37.732 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +40.29

Silver continues to be weighted by the more hawkish tilt to Fed expectations that emerged on Friday. Despite the recent pressure, the white metal is on track for its first higher monthly close since May, and at +15% (currently) it would likely be the best monthly performance since January.



Geopolitical tension from the renewed U.S.-Iran exchanges and firmer oil have provided only limited support, while the modestly softer dollar today has not been enough to reverse the post-Warsh selling. The inability of silver to sustain the recent try above $70 is somewhat troubling, but I think calmer heads concerning a September rate hike will ultimately prevail.

Additionally, longer-term supply/demand dynamics remain constructive. Recent blockbuster AI and tech earnings have reinforced the structural demand story, as surging investment in data centers, semiconductors, and electrification continues to outstrip constrained supply.

A close back above the 100-day MA ($68.056) would be encouraging to the bull camp, although they may have to wait until after Friday's jobs data. Such a move would return focus to the rising 200-day MA at $72.767. The $70 zone and last week's high at $71.104 provide intervening barriers.

PGMs

Platinum and palladium also start the week under pressure, extending Friday’s declines after Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks lifted rate-hike expectations and weighed on non-yielding precious metals. Platinum’s longer-term fundamentals remain supportive, with multi-year market deficits expected to persist amid constrained South African and Russian mine supply and steady demand from autocatalysts (especially hybrids) and industrial uses. Palladium faces a more challenging path as the market is forecast to shift toward balance or surplus from 2027 onward, driven by the gradual decline in internal-combustion engine vehicles, rising recycling volumes, and platinum-for-palladium substitution – though near-term supply disruptions could still provide intermittent support.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold extends gains on rising haven interest

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: The week kicks off with heightened trade tensions after talks between the U.S. and Canada broke down late on Friday. The U.S. imposed 50% tariffs on about $20 bln in Canadian goods, and President Trump said automobiles, car parts, and steel could be tariffed beginning in January. Canada pledged retaliatory tariffs would take effect as soon as 8-Sep.

The market is also watching for clarity on further U.S. economic sanctions against Iran – and possibly its trading partners. Officials have described the planned measures as an “economic D-Day.”

The sanctions would almost assuredly further constrain Iranian oil exports and complicate global supply chains, which could support higher crude prices amid already elevated geopolitical premiums. At the same time, any Iranian retaliation – such as threats to disrupt flows through the Strait of Hormuz – would amplify volatility. Brent crude reached a four-week high above $95 last week, but is slightly easier today.

Ultimately, intensified economic pressure is designed to force Iran back to the bargaining table, and perhaps foment political unrest and regime change. By severely restricting Tehran’s oil revenues and access to global finance, the measures aim to undermine the regime’s ability to sustain its economy, proxies, and military posture, raising the domestic costs of continued defiance.

The market is still digesting last week’s troubling breach of the $40 trillion national debt threshold, which has intensified concerns about fiscal sustainability and long-term borrowing costs. In response, Treasury announced that it would at least double its planned buybacks of longer-dated bonds to help stabilize the market, ease pressure on yields, and support liquidity amid ongoing investor unease.

On Wednesday, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will release Personal Income, Spending, and PCE data, including the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. Markets will scrutinize the PCE data for signs of whether inflation is cooling or remains sticky, and the possible implications for the Fed's rate path.

The KC Fed's Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium begins on Wednesday. The theme is financial innovation and its implications for payments systems and monetary policy. Central bankers, academics, and policymakers from around the world will discuss how emerging technologies, digital currencies, and evolving payment infrastructures could reshape financial stability, cross-border transactions, and the broader conduct of central banking.

Policymakers will also address persistent challenges around inflation, growth, and global economic coordination. Fed Chairman Warsh is slated to speak on Friday. I'm also keen to hear what Isabel Schnabel of the ECB, BoC Governor Tiff Macklem, and BoE Governor Andrew Bailey have to say about balancing persistent price risks and mounting growth risks.

U.S. stocks are mixed to lower at the start of the week amid geopolitical and trade tensions, elevated bond yields, and a busy calendar. Key earnings this week include Nvidia on Wednesday, along with reports from Marvell Technology, Salesforce, and Intuit, which will provide important updates on AI spending and broader tech demand.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$39.62 (+0.86%)
5-Day Change: +$241.43 (+5.47%)
YTD Range: $3,945.52 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,351.54 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +28.13

Gold begins the week with a fresh round of 14-week highs as mounting global fiscal concerns, trade tensions, and persistent geopolitical worries spur haven demand. While the dollar is trading higher today, last week's slide to 14-week lows continues to provide a tailwind for the yellow metal.



Seasonal influences are beginning to ramp up in support of gold, with rising jewelry and investment demand typically strengthening in the second half of the year ahead of major festivals and wedding seasons in India and other Asian markets. These traditional buying patterns often provide a tailwind for prices during late summer and fall, complementing other supportive factors such as a weaker dollar and safe-haven flows.

Investor interest continues to grow with global ETFs seeing net inflows of 46.7 tonnes last week. It was the seventh straight week of net inflows, and the biggest inflow since the 30-Jan week. This signals sustained institutional and retail conviction in gold as a safe-haven asset, driven by persistent macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical risks.

“No one is above the reach of US sanctions. If they are part of the ecosystem that turns Iranian oil into money, they will be targeted,” warned Treasury Secretary Bessent. That dials up the heat on China, India, and Russia, but even those not buying Iranian oil may find that first part troubling. This could accelerate dedollarization and intensify official sector interest in gold.

The worsening overbought condition is seen as a potentially limiting short-term factor, but sights remain on the chart/Fibonacci resistance at $4,773.13/$4,777.59. This level is highlighted by the halfway back point of this year's corrective decline. Above that, the 13-Apr high at $4,886.18 would be in play.

Setbacks into the range will likely be viewed as buying opportunities. Today's Asian low at $4,640.63 marks initial support. More substantial support is found at $4,509.51 (Friday's low).


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.147 (-0.21%)
5-Day Change: +$3.483 (+5.29%)
YTD Range: $54.778 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $38.103 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +51.81

Silver is consolidating last week's gains after buying interest faltered around $70. However, strength in gold, a weak dollar and a broadly constructive supply/demand picture continue to provide underpinnings for the white metal.



Heraeus notes that "Indian silver imports are beginning to recover as traders obtain licences under the new import regime." India's bullion exchange saw roughly 90 tonnes of silver imports so far in August, breaking a six-month dry spell where the exchange saw no silver come through at all.

A convincing move above $70 would bode well for a challenge of the rising 200-day MA at $72.341. Above the latter, the critical $80 level would be in play, which must be exceeded to truly return confidence to the underlying uptrend.

Silver has returned to the 100-day MA in early U.S. trading, setting new intraday lows, suggesting Friday's low at $67.954 is vulnerable to a retest. More important support at $65.647 (20-Aug low) looks to be protected at this point.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver reach multi-week highs as fiscal concerns boost haven interest and dollar weakens

Outside Market Developments: America’s national debt exceeded the $40 trillion mark this week, a stark milestone that underscores how rapidly borrowing costs and fiscal pressures are mounting. With interest payments already devouring a growing share of federal revenue, the threshold is a flashing warning that the bill for decades of profligate borrow-and-spend policy is coming due.

This news, along with the U.S. Treasury’s surprise announcement on Wednesday that it will at least double the size of buybacks of longer-dated Treasuries over the next quarter, dominated this week's trading. "It could be more than the $4 billion per issue,” said Treasury Secretary Bessent.

Yields on the 30-year bond traded as high as 5.34% early in the week, a level not seen for nearly two decades. “All we’re trying to do is get people to focus on the fundamentals and not trade the headlines during a quiet period in a thin market,” he explained.

Treasury contends it's merely providing liquidity support at the long end of the yield curve during thin summer trading, but  I would suggest that the underlying fundamentals are pretty damning. As the debt has surged, so too has the supply of Treasuries, while demand has weakened. Investors are simply requiring higher yields (more compensation) to absorb the growing supply of longer-dated debt.

Private foreign net purchases of Treasuries have declined sharply in recent months, and official foreign holdings represent a much smaller share of the expanding market than in prior years. Competing high-yielding options, particularly from tech superscalers, are certainly sapping demand for Treasuries.

However, central banks – especially those in geopolitically sensitive or non-aligned countries – have become leary of Treasuries given the U.S. ability to freeze or sanction assets. This has become a growing concern since the 2022 Russian reserve freezes and asset seizures in the wake of the Ukraine invasion.

President Trump has declared an “Economic D-Day” of unprecedented economic warfare and isolation against Iran, aiming to sever its remaining oil, banking, and trade lifelines after stalled peace deal talks. The campaign threatens severe secondary sanctions and consequences on any country or entity that continues providing financial or commercial support to Tehran.

I’m not claiming the sanctions on Russia or Iran are unwarranted, yet other countries still weigh the potential risks of falling out of favor with the United States. Recent tariff measures and other pressure on allies for limited involvement in the Iran conflict or for falling short on NATO financial commitments only reinforce that caution.

July’s weak retail sales print (-0.6% m/m) signaled emerging consumer caution amid persistent affordability pressures, and this week’s retailer earnings largely reinforced that picture through Walmart’s notably soft U.S. comparable sales growth, the weakest in years despite overall revenue and earnings beats. At the same time, stronger results from Target (aided by tariff refunds), Ross Stores, Home Depot, and Lowe’s suggested the pullback is uneven, with value-oriented and selective categories holding up better than the broad government data implied.

Next week, markets will closely watch Wednesday’s key U.S. data releases – including the second estimate of Q2 GDP, personal income and spending, and the PCE price index – for fresh clues on growth and inflation. Attention will then shift to the Jackson Hole Symposium later in the week, where Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and other central bankers will hopefully provide policy cues amid elevated oil prices and geopolitical risks.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$69.33 (+1.53%)
5-Day Change: +$217.87 (+4.98%)
YTD Range: $3,945.52 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,322.00 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +28.01

Gold has climbed to fresh 14-week highs and is on track for its third consecutive weekly gain. The rally is being driven by falling long-term yields, a softer dollar, growing fiscal concerns that are stoking haven demand, and intensifying bullish seasonal influences.



Targets marked by the 200-day moving average at $4519.34 and Fibonacci/chart resistance at $4,584.68/$4,594.43 have been satisfied and exceeded. This returns additional confidence to the longer-term uptrend and bodes well for further retracement to the midpoint of this year's range at $4,777.59.

As noted above, concerns about dollar-denominated reserve assets are likely to perpetuate the rotation to supremely liquid hard assets like gold. Official-sector gold demand is widely expected to remain structurally elevated beyond 2030, as most central banks anticipate a rising share of gold in global reserves amid ongoing diversification away from the dollar and persistent geopolitical and fiscal risks.

It's worth noting that the yellow metal is now the most overbought it's been since late January during the push to record highs. Hotter-than-expected PCE inflation next week and/or hawkish musings from Warsh in Jackson Hole could trigger a setback in gold, but a retreat would likely attract further buying interest.

The early U.S. low at $4,563.82 marks initial support and protects the overseas low at $4,509.51. The latter is bolstered by the 200-day MA. Below that, watch the 100-day MA at $4,379.65. Next week, the rising 20-day MA will correspond closely with the lows from the past two weeks at $4.325.73/$4,311.40, providing a formidable downside barrier. 


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$1.413 (+2.08%)
5-Day Change: +$5.216 (+8.06%)
YTD Range: $54.778 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $37.705 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +56.56

Silver has traded above $70 for the first time in nine weeks, and like gold, is poised for a third straight higher weekly close. Weakness in longer-term yields and the dollar are the primary drivers.

 

Tests above the 100-day moving average offer further encouragement to the bull camp, and focus is now on the 200-day MA at $72.252. I continue to think $80 must be regained to truly return confidence to the underlying uptrend. This zone is highlighted by the 38.2% retracement level of this year's plunge at $80.315.

Today's early U.S. low at $68.931 defines initial support. Secondary support at $68.451 (100-day MA) protects today's low at $67.954. More substantial support is well defined by this week's low at $62.574, which corresponds closely with the rising 20-day MA.

Silver remains supported by a sixth consecutive year of structural supply deficit (projected at around 46 Moz in 2026), as inelastic mine production continues to lag robust industrial demand from solar, electronics, EVs, and AI infrastructure. Any short-term setbacks are likely to attract buying interest. 


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold surges to 11-week highs as Treasury ramps up bond buying and dollar tumbles

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Mounting fiscal concerns drove a global bond sell-off on Tuesday, sending long-term yields to multi-decade highs. U.S. 30-year Treasury yields hit their highest since 2007 around 5.33–5.34%; Japan’s 10-year reached a near-30-year high around 3%; German 10-year Bunds hit levels not seen since 2011.

The long end of the curve saw the most impact as the U.S. national debt nears $40 trillion, with elevated government debt in Japan, France, the UK, and elsewhere adding to the angst. Markets are increasingly skeptical that spending will be brought under control, pushing up the “term premium” required to hold long-dated government debt.

While governments issue large amounts of debt, tech "hyperscalers" are flooding the market with corporate bonds of their own. Competing for the same pool of buyers, higher yields on corporate issues are crowding out comparable Treasuries – helped by the fact that some of these issuers carry higher credit ratings than the U.S. itself, along with massive cash flow and actual fiscal discipline.

Additional contributing elements included sticky inflation, thinner summer trading volumes, and some uncertainty about the hawkish tilt of the Warsh Fed. I anticipate the minutes from the July FOMC meeting – slated for release this afternoon – will reflect ongoing inflation worries and reinforce those higher-for-longer expectations.

Treasury Secretary Bessent just announced that it will at least double the size of its liquidity-support buyback operations for longer-dated Treasuries (10- to 20-year and 20- to 30-year sectors), raising the maximum from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation starting 9-Sep. The move, aimed at providing greater liquidity amid recent market stress, triggered a sharp rebound in bonds, with the 30-year yield retreating nearly 10 basis points from multi-year highs and the 10-year yield declining as well.

The U.S. government currently spends about $1.17 trillion a year – more than $3 billion a day – on interest payments for its nearly $40 trillion national debt, making debt servicing one of the largest items in the federal budget. Not surprisingly, the Trump administration appears to view the recent rise in long-term yields as intolerable.

Whether Treasury's move is sufficient to reverse the steepening of the yield curve remains to be seen. I suspect not.

The dollar index is plumbing 13-week lows and is trading below its 200-day moving average for the first time since May. Nearly 50% of this year's rally has been retraced. If the midpoint of the range at 98.68 is violated, focus would shift to the next Fibonacci level at 97.94, with potential to the Apr/May lows at 97.63/62.



The nearly six-month U.S.-Iran conflict remains stalled after the MOU signed in June expired without a broader deal. President Trump has stated no talks are underway or scheduled while claiming the Strait of Hormuz is open under a continued U.S. naval blockade. Iran insists the waterway stays closed until Washington lifts the blockade, sanctions, and other measures, and seeks a full end to the war rather than a ceasefire.

Shipping traffic through the Strait remains sharply curtailed, with only single-digit vessel crossings recorded daily amid ongoing uncertainty and security risks. As a result, oil prices have climbed to three-week highs, with Brent crude trading near $91.50 a barrel and WTI around $85.50, supported by persistent supply concerns tied to the waterway.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$32.62 (+0.75%)
5-Day Change: -$44.29 (-1.00%)
YTD Range: $3,945.52 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,311.66 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +19.30

Gold surged to fresh 11-week highs, spurred by the surprise announcement that Treasury will at least double the size of its long-end liquidity buybacks. Yields have retreated from recent highs, and the dollar plunged in reaction.



The targeted 200-day MA $4,514.71 quickly came within striking distance. A breach of this level would bode well for a push to the $4,584.68 Fibonacci level (38.2% retracement of this year's correction). Beyond that, the midpoint of this year's range at $4,777.59 would be in play.

Evidence is building that the corrective low is in place at $3,945.52 and the underlying uptrend is reasserting itself as bullish seasonal factors kick in. Also note gold's resilience even as long yields recently hit multi-decade highs. This suggests to me that the underlying fiscal concerns are overshadowing the higher yield environment that has emerged, stoking safe-haven interest.

Today's U.S. session low at $4,362.33 is now protected by the highs from earlier in the week at $4,435.65/28.19. More substantial supports are marked by today's overseas low of $4,325.73 and last week's low at $4,311.40.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.025 (+0.04%)
5-Day Change: -$1.771 (-2.71%)
YTD Range: $54.778 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $36.976 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +37.38

Silver is recovering from a two-week low set overseas, helped by Treasury's announcement and the corresponding retreat in the dollar. Given the greater sensitivity to economic growth concerns and risk sentiment, the white metal is lagging on the rally and has yet to set new cycle highs.



I am cautiously encouraged by the 20-day moving average crossing above the 50-day for the first time since early June. However, chart resistances at $66.540/547 and $66.782 must be cleared to set a more favorable short-term tone, keeping focus on tests of the 100-day MA at $68.524 and 200-day MA at $72.073.

If gold continues to move higher, I think silver will indeed extend to new cycle highs. That being said, the trend in the gold-silver ratio remains moderately biased to the upside since the 43.573 low in January.

Silver continues to benefit from a multi-year structural supply deficit – now in its sixth consecutive year with a projected shortfall of around 46 Moz this year – as mine production remains largely inelastic and fails to keep pace with demand. On the demand side, industrial uses account for roughly 58% of consumption, fueled by strong growth in solar photovoltaics, electronics, electric vehicles, and emerging AI infrastructure needs, exacerbating the persistent supply shortfall.

Intraday supports at $65 and $63.334 (U.S. session low) protect the more important overseas low at $62.574. The latter now provides a solid intervening barrier ahead of the now uptrending 20- and 50-day MAs at $61.517/293.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver start the week on the bid

Outside Market Developments: The potential for a September Fed rate hike continues to erode amid recent concerning economic data and signs of tamer inflation. The probability of a 25 bps tightening at the next FOMC meeting has dipped to 30.6%, down from 33.1% on Friday and 52.2% a week ago.

The minutes from the July FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday, and the market will try to glean further insights into the likely policy path. I don't think they'll find much.

Steady policy in September is likely, and the higher-for-longer bias of the Warsh Fed prevails. Despite evidence of moderating inflation, the PCE price index (also out on Wednesday) will remain well above the Fed's 2% target.

In terms of guidance, we'll likely get something more meaningful from Chairman Warsh at next week's Jackson Hole Symposium. As his first major policy signal since taking the helm, his remarks could decide whether the recent less-hawkish tilt has legs – or whether a full-throated restatement of the Fed's inflation-fighting resolve revives rate hike expectations.

Walmart, Target, Home Depot, Lowe’s, and other retailers are slated to announce earnings this week. On the heels of Friday's July retail sales and consumer confidence misses, investors are hoping to get a better read on the health of U.S. consumers.

U.S. stocks are mixed to start the week, with the DJIA and S&P 500 under modest pressure, while the Nasdaq is flat to slightly positive. Technology and semiconductor shares continue to provide support amid optimism around AI-related forecasts, even as investors remain cautious ahead of those major retail earnings reports later in the week.

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed sharply amid the unresolved tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Brent crude rose just over 3% last week, but remains below the midpoint of this year's range.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$22.87 (+0.52%)
5-Day Change: +$162.60 (+3.83%)
YTD Range: $3,945.52 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,311.66 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +22.18

Gold is recovering from Friday's dip to a new low for last week as the market continues to price out the risk for a rate hike next month. Fresh 10-week lows in the dollar index are providing a tailwind for the yellow metal to begin the week.



Initial resistance is well defined by last week's high at $4,449.00. A breach of this level would keep gold on track for an upside extension to test the 200-day moving average at $4,512.28. Beyond that, Fibonacci/chart resistance at $4,584.68/$4,594.43 would attract.

Last week saw another solid week of global ETF inflows, suggesting gathering investor confidence in the underlying uptrend. It was the sixth straight week of net inflows, and the 23.6 tonne figure marks a 24-week high.



Gold is also heading into what's historically its strongest stretch of the year, with the August-through-November window driven by Indian festival and wedding-season buying (Navratri, Dhanteras, Diwali) layering on top of typical safe-haven demand. That said, seasonality is a backdrop, not a guarantee – price action for the remainder of the year will still hinge heavily on Fed policy signals.

Today's Asian low at $4,367.68 now provides an intervening barrier ahead of the more important lows from last week at $4.313.86/$4,311.40. Penetration of the latter would leave gold vulnerable to a retreat below $4,300 and a reversion to the rising 20-day MA (currently at $4,195.64).


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.912 (+1.41%)
5-Day Change: -$0.106 (-0.16%)
YTD Range: $54.778 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $36.976 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +43.66

Silver starts the week on the bid, buoyed by fading rate-hike expectations and a weaker dollar. While ongoing tech/AI optimism provides additional underpinning, the muted upside performance relative to gold is troubling.



Recent soft economic data, most notably July jobs data, retail sales, and consumer confidence, may be limiting the upside. These metrics can signal reduced willingness to spend on non-essential goods, and consumer electronics are among the categories that often feel the impact first.

Broader support comes from ongoing physical market tightness and multi-year supply deficits. However, some analysts note potential headwinds from softer industrial demand in key markets like China and India, plus thrifting in solar panels.

I still think the white metal needs to get back above $80 to reinvigorate the bull camp and get them leaning toward a return to the $100 zone. Intervening resistances are marked by last week's high at $66.782, $68.737 (100-day MA), and $71.951 (200-day MA).

While I can't rule out a short-term challenge of the $61 zone, where the 20- and 50-day moving averages are concerning, I'd view such a move as a buying opportunity. Intervening supports are well-defined at $64.710 (Monday's Asian low), $63.522 (Friday's low), $63.004 (last week's low).


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver poised for second straight higher weekly closes

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.6% in July to $763.6 billion, the largest monthly decline since May 2025 and well below expectations of +0.1%, versus +0.2% in June. The drop was driven in part by weaker spending at online retailers and auto dealers after the boost from tax refunds faded, though sales remained 5.0% higher than a year earlier.

This may not be as bad as the headline print might suggest. The shift of Amazon’s Prime Day into June pulled forward a significant amount of online and discretionary spending, contributing to the sharp 2.2% drop in nonstore retail sales, helping drive the overall 0.6% decline in July. Lower gasoline prices further weighed on the headline figure by reducing receipts at gas stations, even as core categories showed some underlying softness.

The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for August fell sharply to 51.0 from 55.2 in July, well below expectations of 54.5 and ending two months of gains amid concerns over the cost of living tied to the Middle East conflict. Current economic conditions dropped to 51.8 and consumer expectations to 50.6, while one-year inflation expectations edged up to 4.3% from 4.2%.

Today's data misses, along with cooler year-over-year CPI and PPI in July, and soft July jobs data, signal heightened growth risks that are already prompting markets to scale back expectations of near-term Fed tightening. The probability of a September rate hike has eroded to 30.6%, down from 44.4% a week ago, and 50% a month ago.

U.S. Treasury yields are mixed on Friday, with short-dated yields falling (the 2-year briefly dipping below 4.10%, its lowest since late June), while the 10-year yield edged slightly higher around 4.65–4.66%. The dollar index remains defensive below 100, within striking distance of the seven-week low set last week at 99.40.

The United Arab Emirates accused Iran of attacking two of its state-owned oil company vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, further disrupting already sharply reduced shipping traffic through the critical waterway amid stalled ceasefire talks. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that Washington can maintain its naval blockade of Iran indefinitely. 

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has outlined a plan for “economic isolation like the world has never seen before” against Iran, describing it as a two-pronged “one-two punch” that combines intensified financial pressure with the ongoing naval blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz. The financial component – framed as a shift to “Economic Fury” – involves targeting Iranian bank accounts, crypto wallets, and assets worldwide while cutting off payments to the regime’s leadership and government; full details of the new measures are expected to be announced next week.

Next week, markets will focus on the release of the July FOMC minutes for fresh clues on the Fed’s rate path, key U.S. housing and manufacturing data, and major retail earnings from companies such as Walmart and Target that will test the health of the consumer. Attention will also be on any new U.S. economic measures against Iran, along with ongoing developments in the Strait of Hormuz and their impact on oil prices.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$1.39 (-0.03%)
5-Day Change: +$34.73 (+0.80%)
YTD Range: $3,945.52 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,311.66 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +20.95

Gold is recovering from overseas profit-taking and appears on track for a second consecutive higher weekly close after the recent upside breakout from the descending wedge chart pattern. The yellow metal continues to be buoyed by less-hawkish Fed bets that have created headwinds for yields and the dollar.



While gold continues to straddle the 100-day moving average, recent price action has been encouraging to the scenario that suggests the corrective low is in place and focus will return to the dominant uptrend. Gold is moving into a seasonally strong period, and we continue to see solid official sector demand.

In Q2 2026, central banks made net gold purchases of 289 tonnes (a record for a second quarter), according to the World Gold Council. The largest reported buyer was the National Bank of Poland, which added 51 tonnes, followed by the People’s Bank of China with 33 tonnes; other notable buyers included the central banks of Uzbekistan (+16t), Kazakhstan (+15t), Jordan (+6t), and the Czech Republic (+6t).

The Bank of Korea made its first gold-related investment in 13 years during Q2, acquiring 679,765 shares of the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) worth about $250 million as of the end of June, according to a U.S. SEC filing. The central bank, which has held its physical gold reserves steady at around 104 tons since 2013, also recently announced plans to begin purchasing domestically produced gold to further diversify its foreign-exchange reserves and hedge against geopolitical and inflation risks.

Central banks remain firmly in buying mode, with a record 45% planning to add more gold over the next year and nearly 90% expecting global official holdings to keep rising. This reality lends further credence to the long-term uptrend.

The U.S. “Economic Fury” campaign of unprecedented financial isolation and a sustained Hormuz blockade would sharply escalate geopolitical and energy-market risks, reinforcing gold’s role as a crisis hedge and reserve diversifier. Central banks, already buying at elevated levels and citing geopolitical uncertainty as a key motive, would likely accelerate purchases to protect against sanctions spillover, oil-price volatility, and further erosion of confidence in traditional reserve assets that are clearly vulnerable to the long reach of the U.S. Treasury Department.

I'd like to see a close above the convergence of the 20- and 50-week moving averages at $4,387.47/$4,389.74 to bolster confidence in the short-term bullish scenario that targets the rising 200-day MA at $4,510.82. Beyond the latter, the 38.2% retracement level of this year's decline at $4,584.68 would be in play.

While today's overseas low at $4,311.40 was a new low for the week, we can now consider $4,313.86/$4,311.40 a solid short-term downside barrier. Secondary support is defined by the $4,230.25/$4,223.75 zone.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.171 (+0.27%)
5-Day Change: +$1.528 (+2.40%)
YTD Range: $54.778 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $36.976 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +44.74

Silver set a seven-week high on Wednesday, but upside momentum faded in the latter half of the week. Nonetheless, the white metal is poised for a second straight higher weekly close.



Signs of economic weakness perhaps tempered silver's benefit from less-hawkish Fed expectations this week. However, strong Q2 earnings in the tech/AI sector bode well for ongoing robust capex.

The four largest hyperscalers (Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta) collectively spent about $165 bln on capital expenditures in Q2 alone. These companies raised or reaffirmed full-year 2026 capex guidance to a combined roughly $730-$760 bln (up nearly 80% from 2025), with analysts expecting the aggressive infrastructure buildout to continue and potentially approach or exceed $1 trillion in 2027 as AI demand continues to outstrip available capacity.

This bodes well for a host of commodities like copper, aluminum, uranium, natural gas, and several other metals tied to power, electronics, and construction. That includes silver, although copper stands out as the clearest winner. Copper is just over 3% off the record high set last week at  680.73 and is on track for a fourth straight higher weekly close.

Silver really needs to get back above $80 to reinvigorate the bull camp. Key intervening barriers marked by the 100-day MA at $68.780 and 200-day MA at $71.874 are now protected by Wednesday's high at $66.782.

Friday’s overseas low at $63.522 protects the weekly low set Monday at $63.004. The converging 50- and 20-day moving averages will reinforce chart supports at $61.175 and $60.887 in the week ahead, providing a formidable downside barrier.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.