Blog posts tagged with 'platinum'

Gold and silver remain generally defensive near recent lows

Notice: I'll be on holiday from 22-Jul until 6-Aug. Newsletter distribution will resume upon my return.

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Markets remain squarely focused on the ongoing escalation of the US-Iran conflict. Iranian strikes killed several U.S. service members over the weekend, prompting U.S. Central Command to launch retaliatory airstrikes to “swiftly punish” Iranian forces responsible for the attack.

Iran has continued issuing threats of further escalation and launching strikes against U.S. targets and allies in the region. Commercial transit of the Strait of Hormuz remains severely restricted, prompting oil to climb back above $90 for the first time in five weeks. Gasoline prices in the U.S. are once again averaging $4 per gallon.

Revived concerns about inflation – even after tamer June CPI and PPI figures last week – have nudged up rate hike expectations. While steady policy remains likely for the July FOMC meeting (85.6% probability), Fed funds futures imply 31 bps of tightening by year's end.

The dollar index continues to trade comfortably above the 100 level, and is currently less than 1% off the more than one-year high of 101.80 set on 24-Jun. A short-term climb back above the 20-day moving average would return further credence to the uptrend that has dominated since late-January.



Leading indicators and housing data are highlights of this week's generally light U.S. economic calendar. Greater emphasis will be placed on earnings reports from key tech names like Alphabet, Tesla, Intel, and IBM, as Investors continue to seek assurance that massive AI spending is translating to revenue and profits.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$7.13 (+0.18%)
5-Day Change: +$24.52 (+0.61%)
YTD Range: $3,945.52 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,270.50 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +8.20

Gold is straddling the $4,000 level, but remains generally defensive as more hawkish Fed expectations, resilient yields and a firm dollar continue to offset haven demand. Gold also remains in a seasonally weak period (typically July – September), which historically sees reduced physical demand after the Indian wedding season and summer lull in jewelry buying.



Investment in global ETFs has been tepid since the big outflows in June (76.4 tonnes). European investors were cautious buyers last week, but selling in Asia and North America resulted in net outflows of 0.5 tonnes.

As long as gold remains below the declining 20-day moving average, scope remains for new lows for the year below $3,945.52 (30-Jun low). Such a move would favor a downside extension to chart/Fibonacci support at $3,887.03/$3,886.02. Below that, $3,800 would attract, and a push to the next tier of retracement levels at $3,613.42/$3,605.58 would have to be considered.

The 20-day MA comes in at $4,063.05 today. A close above this level would shift focus to last week's high at $4,107.71. Above that, $4,137.89 (9-Jul high) and $4,201.70 (6-Jul high) would be in play.

The reality is that a sustained bottom in the gold market will likely require either a meaningful drop in oil prices or a dovish pivot from the Fed. The former depends on de-escalation in the Middle East, while the latter looks unlikely given the hawkish lean of the Warsh-led Fed.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.711 (-1.21%)
5-Day Change: -$0.582 (-1.01%)
YTD Range: $54.778 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $36.287 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +21.17

Silver is trading higher for a second session after setting a new low for the year on Friday. Inflation worries, underpinned yields and a generally firm dollar, continue to pose a headwind.



Wall Street is looking for continued strong growth in cloud/AI infrastructure and evidence that the massive capex surge is beginning to generate meaningful revenue and returns, rather than just higher costs. While the bar is high for tech/AI names, optimism about industrial demand for silver may be at least sparking some short covering. 

Nonetheless, Friday's fresh lows leave the market vulnerable to a test of the Fibonacci objectives at $53.695/340. Below that, the lower boundary of the bear channel comes in around $52.30.

A short-term rise above the 20-day moving average at $58.881 would ease pressure on the downside somewhat, favoring further corrective gains toward $59.675 (13-Jul high), $60.762 (10-Jul high), and $63.267 (6-Jul high).

Similar to gold, silver is in the midst of a weak seasonal period. May through August is historically the softest period, with lower industrial activity, reduced jewelry buying in key markets like India, and a general summer lull in investment demand.

Silver often performs best in the fourth and first quarters. This window benefits from holiday/jewelry demand, year-end portfolio rebalancing, and safe-haven flows into the new year.

At this point, the dominant trend remains bearish. It would take a climb back above $90 later in the year to return a measure of confidence to the long-term uptrend.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver are poised for consecutive lower weekly closes

Outside Market Developments: The dominant theme this week has been renewed US-Iran geopolitical tensions, which drove oil prices higher, revived inflation worries, and pressured risk assets. Renewed strikes and threats around the Strait of Hormuz stoked market volatility, deflated recent ceasefire optimism, and clouded the Fed’s rate outlook.

Tame inflation data from June somewhat tempered hawkish Fed expectations. Prospects for a hike at the July FOMC meeting fell to 10.2%, from 34.2% a week ago. Fed funds futures continue to suggest potential for at least one 25-bps rate hike before the end of the year.

Brent crude is up more than 10% this week and is poised to notch a second straight higher weekly close. While oil is holding below $90 thus far, the upside remains vulnerable. A climb above $90 would shift focus to the halfway back point of the May-June decline at $95.702.

Regional mediators – primarily Qatar and Pakistan – are still actively engaged in de-escalation efforts. Technical and indirect negotiations continue, focused on salvaging the June Memorandum of Understanding.  Optimism seems pretty low at this point, but formal diplomacy has not been completely abandoned.

Markets will remain focused on the trajectory of the US-Iran conflict, its impact on energy prices, and inflation expectations in the week ahead. Any further escalation, de-escalation signals, or mediator updates on the Strait of Hormuz will dominate sentiment and keep volatility elevated. Investors will also watch incoming U.S. economic data (housing starts, leading indicators) and corporate earnings for clues on growth and Fed policy, while monitoring tech/semiconductor rotation and broader risk appetite. 


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$14.60 (+0.37%)
5-Day Change: -$115.13 (-2.80%)
YTD Range: $3,945.52 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,270.50 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +6.76

Gold reached a fresh two-week low in early U.S. trading before rebounding into the range. The yellow metal is on track for a second straight lower weekly close.



Escalating geopolitical tensions and this week's cooler-than-expected inflation prints provide some underpinning for gold. However, the rebound in oil, heightened inflation risks, a generally firm dollar, and Fed uncertainty provide an overwhelming headwind.

Scope remains for a short-term retest of the low for the year at $3,945.52 (30-Jun). A breach of this level would confirm potential for a downside extension to chart/Fibonacci support at $3,887.03/$3,886.02.

At this point. it would probably take a meaningful movement on peace talks to trigger a significant short-covering rally. The falling 20-day moving average at $4,071.62 is the initial resistance level I'm watching. A rebound and close above the 20-day would shift focus to $4,137.89 (9-Jul high) with potential to last week's high at $4,201.70.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.239 (-0.43%)
5-Day Change: -$4.269 (-7.15%)
YTD Range: $54.778 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $36.287 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +16.32

Silver slid to a new low for the year on Friday, below $55, amid heightened geopolitical risks and ongoing rotation out of tech/AI names. While profit taking lifted the white metal during U.S. trading, a second consecutive lower weekly close is on tap.



The fresh lows lend credence to the scenario that calls for a test of a pair of Fibonacci objectives at $53.695/340. Below that, the lower boundary of the bear channel comes in around $52.50.

Like gold, I'm watching the descending 20-day MA, which comes in at $59.295. Secondary resistances are found at $59.675 (13-Jul high), $60.762 (10-Jul high), and $63.267 (6-Jul high).


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver consolidate as optimism on inflation is tempered by ongoing conflict

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Inflation cooled noticeably in June, thanks in large part to the ceasefire that triggered a sharp drop in oil prices. However, with oil prices rising again amid renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities, optimism about disinflation has been significantly tempered.

The Consumer Price Index fell 0.4% for the month – the largest drop since April 2020 – cooling to 3.5% y/y, down from 4.2% in May. Core CPI also eased to 2.6%, signaling that price risks may be moderating even as energy volatility and geopolitical risks linger.

Wholesale inflation followed suit. The Producer Price Index declined 0.3% in June, slowing to 5.5% y/y, below expectations of 6.2% and down from 6.0% in May. Core PPI ticked up to 4.7% y/y from 4.6% in May, but came in well below expectations of 5.2%.

With both CPI and PPI coming in softer than forecast, hawkish Fed expectations have moderated. Prospects for a July rate hike have declined to 10.2%, versus 31% a week ago. A 25 bps rate hike by year-end is no longer fully priced in.

The dollar index has eased somewhat but remains within striking distance of the 13-month high set in late June. Haven interest continues to underpin the greenback amid persistent geopolitical risks and substantial uncertainty about the trajectory of energy prices. 

Tensions in the Middle East have escalated again as the U.S. and Iran exchanged further strikes and threats following a brief ceasefire. President Trump formally notified Congress that U.S. military operations have resumed against Iran under the War Powers Resolution. Iran continued to launch ballistic missiles and drones against U.S. bases in the region. 


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$24.73 (-0.61%)
5-Day Change: -$38.48 (-0.94%)
YTD Range: $3,960.16 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,270.50 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +8.47

Gold is consolidating above $4,000, with this week's cooler-than-expected inflation readings and diminished rate hike expectations providing a bit of a tailwind. However, Middle East reescalation and the rebound in oil prices are providing opposing pressure.

 

Probes back below $4,000 earlier in the week suggest the 30-Jun low at $3,945.52 remains vulnerable to a test. Fresh lows for the year would bode well for a downside extension to challenge chart/Fibonacci support at $3,887.03/$3,886.02.

I continue to eye the declining 20-day moving average as initial resistance, which corresponds closely with chart resistance at $4,100.00/$4,107.71. Several additional tiers of chart resistance are noted at $4,137.89 and $4,201.70 that protect the upper limits of the descending wedge pattern around $4,261.

It seems like it will take a new and sustained ceasefire, along with real movement toward a lasting peace, to create the opportunity for gold to form a bottom.  A rebound above $4,800 in really needed to return a measure of confidence to the long-term uptrend, and that level is a long way away.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.711 (-1.21%)
5-Day Change: -$0.104 (-0.18%)
YTD Range: $55.666 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $36.287 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +24.57

Silver is trading within the confines of the 22-Jun week for a fourth consecutive week. Despite the encouraging CPI and PPI prints for June, the trade is understandably not convinced that we're out of the woods on inflation and the possibility of a Fed rate hike.



While supply/demand dynamics remain broadly supportive of the long-term uptrend, the market continues to look like there's scope for additional short-term corrective losses. New lows for the week below $56.891 would clear the way for a retest of the small double bottom at $55.727/666. Below the latter, a pair of Fibonacci levels at at $53.695 and $53.340 would be in play.

Tech and AI sentiment remains broadly positive but increasingly selective. While enthusiasm for artificial intelligence infrastructure and long-term growth stays strong – fueled by continued capital spending on chips, data centers, and enterprise adoption – investors are showing more caution amid high valuations, mixed earnings results, and concerns over near-term returns on massive AI investments.

The declining 20-day moving average is approaching $60 and is protected by Monday's high at $59.675. A series of daily highs from the last couple of weeks stand in front of the more important $63.267 high from 6-Jul.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver pressured by reignited global energy security concerns

Outside Market Developments: Tensions between the United States and Iran escalated further over the weekend as Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed once again. The announcement has driven oil prices higher and reignited global energy security concerns.

Iran launched missile and drone attacks on U.S.-allied bases in the Gulf region, including sites in Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, and Oman. The U.S. conducted targeted strikes on Iranian military assets, including air defenses, radar sites, missile/drone capabilities, and small boats aimed at degrading Iran's ability to threaten shipping.

President Trump said today that he is “reinstating” the blockade on Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, positioning the U.S. as the "Guardian of the Hormuz Strait."  He added that a toll would be imposed on all cargo passing through the strait to cover U.S. security and operational costs.

Diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the conflict continue through backchannel talks and regional mediators, particularly Oman. The White House and Tehran are signaling willingness to negotiate on shipping security and broader issues – though significant trust gaps and competing demands make progress challenging.

Prospects for a 25 bps rate hike at the July FOMC meeting have risen to 39%, up from 34.2% on Friday and 25.7% a week ago. Fed funds futures now imply 37 bps of tightening by year-end.

This week, markets will closely watch key U.S. inflation data and the kickoff of Q2 earnings season. Tuesday brings June CPI figures, followed by PPI on Wednesday. Earnings begin with major banks like JPMorgan and Citigroup, with about 10% of S&P 500 companies reporting. Additional data on retail sales and housing will also be in focus, all set against ongoing Middle East geopolitical risks.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$47.75 (-1.16%)
5-Day Change: -$104.06 (-2.50%)
YTD Range: $3,945.52 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,270.50 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +9.29

Gold has retreated below $4,000, amid heightened Middle East tensions, attendant energy inflation worries, rising rate-hike expectations, and a firmer dollar. Lingering seasonal pressures persist as well.



The period through July historically sees the weakest average gold performance of the year. This stems primarily from seasonal weakness in global jewellery demand. Retail investors and traders in Western markets also tend to step away from their portfolios for vacations during this period.

With fewer retail buyers actively accumulating physical gold or trading ETFs, a natural lull in upward price momentum occurs. As noted in commentary last week, the yellow metal has not seen consecutive higher weekly closes since April. 

Beginning in August and September, the cyclical picture typically brightens with the start of the Indian wedding and festival season, which generates significant physical gold demand across South and Southeast Asia. Western investor liquidity tends to return around the same time as the vacation season winds down.

Global ETFs saw scant inflows of just 2.6 tonnes last week. It was only the third net weekly inflow since 01-May.

China, on the other hand, continued its gold-buying streak for the 20th straight month in June, with the PBoC adding another 15 tonnes to reserves. That’s their biggest monthly buy since October 2023, bringing China's total (officially acknowledged) stockpile to 2,346 tonnes.

The back below $4,000 puts the 30-Jun low at $3,945.52 back in play. New lows for the year would lend credence to the bearish scenario that suggests potential to chart/Fibonacci support at $3,887.03/$3,886.02.

On the upside, initial resistances at $4,050.00/54.75 and $4,080.35 protects today's overseas high at $4,107.71 and the falling 20-day moving average at $4,115.07. A close above the 20-day is needed to return focus to last week's corrective high at $4,201.70.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$1.282 (-2.15%)
5-Day Change: -$3.733 (-6.02%)
YTD Range: $55.666 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $36.287 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +24.95

Silver begins the week on defense as Middle East escalation revives inflation worries and bolsters hawkish Fed expectations and the dollar. Thus far, the white metal remains confined to last week's range.



If initial support at $57.248 gives way, it would leave the small double bottom at $55.727/666 vulnerable to a retest. Below the latter, a pair of Fibonacci objectives that correspond closely at $53.695/340 remain valid objectives.

Intraday resistance sits at $58.000/058, protecting the early U.S. session high of $58.752. Today's Asian high at $59.675 provides an additional intervening barrier ahead of the $60 level. Silver struggled to hold above $60 last week, keeping the near-term technical bias tilted to the downside.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver under pressure as revived inflation worries trump Middle East escalation

Outside Market Developments: The U.S. launched retaliatory strikes against Iran in response to attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Regarding the 60-day ceasefire formalized with the signing of the MOU on 17-Jun, President Trump said, "As far as I’m concerned, it’s over.” 

The U.S. quickly moved to revoke Iran's temporary license to sell its oil. It also reimposed broad secondary sanctions on anyone (including foreign companies and banks) buying, financing, or shipping Iranian oil. Brent crude is up more than 10% over the past two days, pressuring $80.

The status of the indirect negotiations in Doha is unclear at this point. While neither party has formally walked away from diplomacy, President Trump said further talks are a "waste of time."

This is restoking inflation concerns and hawkish Fed expectations. Bond yields are edging higher, and the dollar index set a new high for the week. Prospects for a rate hike at the July FOMC meeting are now at 30.5%, up from 26.7% yesterday and 14.5% a month ago.

Discussions at the NATO summit in Turkey have focused on “burden-sharing,” with the U.S. pushing Europe to take on more responsibility, while addressing ongoing security challenges in Ukraine and the Middle East. Emphasis is on implementing last year’s commitments, particularly the new 5% of GDP defense spending target by 2035. Overall, the tone has been one of unity. 

Chip/tech stocks are under pressure amid ongoing rotation out of AI names. Broader indices (DJIA, S&P 500) are seeing mild declines or consolidation after recent records.

It's a relatively quiet day for U.S. economic data. Wholesale inventories for May were weaker than expected. MBA data for the week ending 3-Jul saw mortgage applications fall 2.2%, with the refinance index dropping notably while purchase activity remained soft amid elevated rates.

Consumer credit for May comes out later. The Fed's June FOMC minutes are scheduled for release at 12:00 PM ET and will be the main focus, with markets watching for any clues on the rate path amid recent inflation and labor data.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$53.18 (-1.30%)
5-Day Change: +$14.24 (+0.35%)
YTD Range: $3,945.52 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,270.50 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +8.68

Gold is back under pressure amid rising Middle East tensions and the rebound in oil prices. Yields and the dollar are rising as well, applying additional pressure. More than half of the recent bounce has already been retraced.



Revived inflation risks associated with oil prices and the reinforcement of higher-for-longer Fed expectations are overwhelming any haven bid tied to heightened geopolitical tensions. Scope is seen for further retracement to the $4,000 zone, and below that, last week's low at $3,945.52 would be back in play.

I continue to believe new lows for the year, and a challenge of chart/Fibonacci support at $3,887.03/$3,886.02 is a short-term probability before we start seeing cyclical buying later in the summer. The outlook could certainly become more bearish if Middle East tensions escalate further, oil heads toward $100, and the trade starts pricing greater expectations of Fed tightening.

Despite global gold ETF holdings suffering a significant outflow of $8.9 bln in June, overall flows for the first half of 2026 managed to remain positive at $8 bln, according to World Gold Council findings. This H1 resilience was heavily anchored by record-breaking inflows into Asian funds, which successfully countered the largest H1 North American outflows since 2013 (-$7.7 bln).

The WGC also noted that global gold market liquidity surged to unprecedented heights in H1 2026, reaching an all-time high average of $488 bln per day. This historic trading activity was exceptionally broad-based, fueled by robust institutional over-the-counter (OTC) volumes and a massive 73% year-over-year jump in gold ETF trading.

If this flare-up between the U.S. and Iran is short-lived and they return to the bargaining table, causing oil prices to ease again, gold could go back on the bid. Initial resistance is at $4,093.00/$4,096.97, call it $4,100. Above that, today's overseas high at $4,133.73 – which now corresponds closely with the 20-day MA) protects highs from earlier in the week at $4,179.79 and $4,201.70. More substantial resistances are found at $4,218.41 (22-Jun high) and $4,318.41 (17-Jun high).


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$1.583 (-2.64%)
5-Day Change: -$0.743 (-1.26%)
YTD Range: $55.666 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $36.287 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +24.68

Silver has traded lower every day this week, despite the nine-session high set on Monday. More hawkish Fed expectations, a higher dollar, and the latest revival of tech/AI valuation worries are weighing on the white metal.



I noted earlier in the week that I was not impressed with the momentum of the recent rebound, and that the 20-day moving average successfully contained the upside. This suggested to me that upticks were corrective in nature. With more than 78.6% of that rally already retraced, a retest of the small double bottom at $55.727/666 seems likely.

Intraday highs from early in the U.S. session at $58.951/954 and $59.032 define initial resistance. Today's overseas high at $61.023 looks pretty well protected at this point.

Like in gold, swift de-escalation in the Middle East could change the picture quickly. Be prepared for ongoing volatility.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver ease as dollar rebounds modestly

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Risk sentiment is elevated to start the new week, supported by less hawkish Fed expectations in the wake of last week's nonfarm payrolls miss. Payrolls grew just 57k in June, below expectations of 110k. There were also -74k in back-month revisions.

While certainly disappointing, it was a fourth straight month of jobs growth. The jobless rate ticked down to 4.2%, the lowest in a year. However, that was primarily due to a drop in the labor force participation rate to 61.5% (lowest since March 2021).

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh spoke before the report came out on Thursday, calling the job market “steady” and once again emphasizing that the Fed’s priority is bringing inflation back to 2%. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly used the word “stable” to describe the labor market and went on to say that “one report isn’t going to break this view.”

This aligns with the Warsh-Fed’s vow to deliver price stability. Prospects for a 25 bps rate hike at the July FOMC meeting are edging back up, after falling to 18.8% on Thursday. Fed funds futures continue to price in at least one rate hike by year-end, underpinning the dollar.

The fragile US/Iran ceasefire continues to hold, and indirect negotiations in Doha are ongoing. Iran reportedly continues to push a toll scheme for the Strait of Hormuz. I can't imagine any situation in which President Trump would agree to that as part of a broader peace deal.

A major Russian missile and drone attack struck Kyiv overnight, killing at least 11 people and injuring dozens more.
Moscow framed it as payback for Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, reinforcing Putin’s narrative of fighting “NATO aggression” to his domestic audience. The attack comes just a day ahead of the NATO summit in Turkey.

The Fed's path is likely to remain the market's focus this week. Minutes from the June meeting come out on Wednesday. We'll also hear from the Fed's Waller, Williams, and Logan. The NATO summit will generate headlines, especially with President Trump in attendance. 


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$20.05 (-0.48%)
5-Day Change: +$138.09 (+3.44%)
YTD Range: $3,960.16 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,270.50 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +12.79

Gold starts the week modestly lower after briefly ticking above $4,200 in overseas trade. The yellow metal got a boost last week after the weak payrolls print led to short covering amid tempered expectations for a rate hike this year.



Arguably, the trade overreacted to the jobs number with the Fed still squarely focused on taming inflation. Fed funds futures continue to portend at least one 25-bps rate hike this year, which provides some support for the greenback.

With the rise above the 20-day moving average, there is scope for further corrective gains toward the trendline at $4,341. However, the $4,381.78 high from 17-Jun is likely to remain protected. Heightened geopolitical tensions could help that cause.

In other words, I'm not convinced that the low is in, and the recent gains are likely to be viewed as a selling opportunity. A breach of Friday's low at $4,121.57 would shift focus to the halfway back point of the recent rally at $4,073.61. Below the latter, look for a return to the $4,000 zone with potential for another run at the low for the year at $3,945.52.

Heightened belief that the Fed will remain on hold, or more importantly, that a rate cut is back on the table, would put the brakes on the recent dollar rally. That would return a measure of confidence to the underlying uptrend.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.306 (-0.49%)
5-Day Change: +$3.518 (+6.03%)
YTD Range: $55.666 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $36.201 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +35.17

Silver hit a three-week high in overseas trading before retreating into the range. The streak of higher daily closes seems likely to end at four sessions as the market shrugs off the jobs miss, and the dollar recovers somewhat.



The lack of momentum on the recent gains is suggestive of corrective activity. The bear camp will also be encouraged by the fact that the 20-day MA has contained the upside thus far.

A breach of Friday's low at $60.924 would favor a return to the $60 zone with potential to the 50% retracement level at $59.466. Below that, the small double bottom at $55.727/666 would be back in play.

While scope remains for fresh lows toward Fibonacci retracement levels at $53.695 and $53.340. Were seeing some renewed buying interest in the semiconductor sector amid reviving optimism that the AI investment boom has more room to run. This could boost capex expectations and brighten the picture for industrial demand for silver

The multiyear supply deficit and expectations for the ongoing expansion of industrial demand paint a long-term bullish picture. However, silver really needs to regain the $90 level to re-establish confidence in the dominant uptrend. That's a long way away.

Volatile trading below $75 is likely to prevail for the remainder of the summer, with many still smarting from silver's fall from grace earlier in the year. Given the supply/demand picture, a more than 50% plunge from the record high of $121.630 will be tempting when trading desks are fully staffed again after the summer holidays, and retail investors can look at the chart with some degree of confidence that the low is in.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver rebound modestly after posting sharp monthly and quarterly losses

Outside Market Developments: U.S. and Iranian teams continue to hold technical talks in Doha, Qatar, mediated by Qatar and Pakistan, focusing on restarting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and solidifying the ceasefire. Tensions persist over key issues like Iran's nuclear program, sanctions relief, and regional security.

Iran has ruled out direct face-to-face meetings with US envoys there, preferring indirect channels, while both sides insist they remain committed to implementing the MOD and advancing toward a broader peace deal. Consequently, oil remains under pressure near four-month lows.

In his speech today at the ECB Forum in Sintra, Portugal, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh acknowledged some recent cooling in inflation expectations. While he avoided providing forward guidance, he reaffirmed that the central bank will deliver price stability, with the goal of returning inflation to the 2% target.

"We've all looked around, and we've seen that prices are too high... If there were people... who thought that this central bank was going to be comfortable with an inflation objective above 2%, well, I guess they'd be disappointed. We're going to deliver price stability in the US," said Warsh.

Fed funds futures continue to price at least one 25 bps rate hike by year-end. About 40 bps of tightening is implied through June 2027.

The manufacturing sector continued to expand in June, but at a slower pace amid easing price pressures. ISM Manufacturing PMI printed 53.3 in June, below expectations of 54.0, versus 54.0 in May. Construction spending rose 0.1% in May,  below expectations of +0.2%, versus a revised +0.3% in April.

ADP private payrolls rose 98k in June, below expectations of +113k, versus +122k in May. Focus now shifts to Thursday's nonfarm payrolls report, where payroll growth of 110k is expected. The jobless rate is forecast to remain at 4.3%.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$9.39 (-0.23%)
5-Day Change: +$86.78 (+2.17%)
YTD Range: $3,945.52 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,270.50 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +10.89

Gold is recovering modestly after reaching a new eight-month low on Tuesday, ending June with a 12% loss. It was the fourth straight lower monthly close. The yellow metal ended Q2 with a 14% loss.

 

Mixed economic data ahead of tomorrow's big jobs report is perhaps bolstering safe-haven interest. However, Warsh reiterated the pledge to "deliver price stability" in a speech today, reinforcing higher-for-longer rate expectations that have been underpinning the dollar.

If June nonfarm payrolls significantly miss expectations on the downside, I'd expect the trade to start reversing out some of the recent hawkishness. On the other hand, if the labor market continues to display resilience, gold will likely remain under pressure.

Scope remains for a downside extension to chart/Fibonacci support at $3,887.03/$3,886.02. Tuesday's new low for the year at $3,945.52 provides intervening support that closely corresponds to the lower limit of the large descending wedge pattern.

Today's rebound to new highs for the week is mildly encouraging to the bull camp, suggesting scope for a challenge of the declining 20-day MA at $4,183.05. Additional resistance is marked by last week's high is $4,218.41. However, short-term upticks are still likely to be met with selling interest.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.338 (-0.58%)
5-Day Change: +$2.716 (+4.73%)
YTD Range: $55.666 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $35.918 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +34.25

Silver saw massive losses of 22% in June and Q2, as the market corrected from the relentless rally of 2025 that extended into January 2026. Besides simple profit taking, the white metal was weighted by war-related uncertainty, hawkish Fed expectations, and a firming dollar.



Consolidative to mildly corrective activity that has emerged since the seven-month low at $55.666 was established last week has not been terribly impressive. Prices remain confined to the 24-Jun range. While a case can be made for a small double bottom, the developing bear flag appears to be the more noticeable technical feature.

Scope remains for a downside extension to challenge Fibonacci levels at $53.695 and $53.340. Confidence in that scenario will be bolstered upon a short-term breach of the $55.727/666 lows.

If the $62.350 high from 24-Jun gives way first, a challenge of the declining 20-day MA at $64.512 would become likely. More substantial resistance in the $70 area is likely to remain well protected.

Tech/AI valuation worries seen earlier in the week appear to have faded, which bolsters industrial demand expectations. With the market in its sixth year of supply deficit, the realities of supply/demand are seen as structurally bullish. Eventually, the long-term uptrend should reassert itself.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver lower with focus on jobs data in the holiday-shortened week

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Middle East tensions flared over the weekend, testing the fragile US-Iran ceasefire/MoU signed just weeks ago. Iran attacked commercial vessels in or near the Strait of Hormuz as well as US-related targets in Bahrain and Kuwait. The U.S. conducted retaliatory airstrikes targeting missile/drone storage sites, coastal radar, air defenses, and military infrastructure near the Strait and on Qeshm Island.

Amid the weekend strikes, President Trump warned that if Iran doesn’t comply with the ceasefire and deal terms, “there may come a point when we are no longer able to be reasonable, and will be forced to militarily complete the job that we very successfully started.” On Sunday, both sides agreed to halt further attacks and resume talks, which have moved from Switzerland to Qatar, on Tuesday.

Israel continued limited strikes on Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon. The IDF stated the actions were in response to threats from Hezbollah operatives. A US-brokered framework deal between Israel and Lebanon faces rejection from Hezbollah.

Israel has made clear it will not fully withdraw from its security/buffer zone in southern Lebanon until Hezbollah is significantly degraded or disarmed. Continued activity complicates US-Iran peace talks and strains Lebanon’s fragile government and economy.

This week's focus will be on U.S. jobs data. The June nonfarm payrolls report comes out on Thursday. The market is expecting jobs growth of +110k and steady unemployment at 4.3%.

Evidence of ongoing resilience in the U.S. labor market will fortify higher-for-longer Fed expectations, underpinning yields and the dollar. A significant payrolls miss could prompt the trade to start pricing out the probability of a rate hike before year-end.

Housing market data is also on tap this week. Activity has been sluggish this year, with elevated mortgage rates continuing to weigh on affordability and demand.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$35.06 (-0.86%)
5-Day Change: -$146.19 (-3.49%)
YTD Range: $3,960.16 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,256.02 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +9.32

Gold starts the week on its back foot amid tempered market reaction to weekend hostilities in the Middle East and news that peace talks will continue this week. Market activity remains contained within the range that was established last Wednesday.  



With the yellow metal well below the major moving averages and new 13-month lows last week, the downside remains vulnerable. Cyclical pressure, diminished geopolitical and inflation risks, and a firm dollar continue to push investors to the sidelines.

Global ETFs saw net outflows of 38.3 tonnes last week. It was the biggest outflow since the 30-Sep'22 week.


Scope is seen for further tests below $4,000. Minor chart supports at $3983.74 and $3,964.23 protect the low for the year at $3,960.16. Penetration of the latter would lend credence to the bearish scenario that suggests potential to a pair of Fibonacci levels at $3,887.03/86.02.

A rebound above $4,114.73 (24-Jun high) would ease pressure on the downside somewhat, favoring further corrective gains toward the declining 20-day moving average at $4,225.13. More important resistance marked by the mid-June high at $4,381.78 and the 50- and 200-day MA's above $4,400 look to be well protected.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$1.133 (-1.92%)
5-Day Change: -$6.587 (-10.12%)
YTD Range: $55.666 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $35.610 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +29.19

Silver is consolidating recent losses below $60. The downside remains vulnerable in the face of higher-for-longer Fed expectations, a firm dollar, and the most recent rise in bearish tech/AI sentiment.

 

Short-term support is well defined by the recent low at $55.666/527. A breach of this level would clear the way for a downside extension to the Fibonacci retracement levels at $53.695 and $53.340.

On the upside, last Wednesday's high at $62.350 is protected by the previous lows at $61.036/533. Additional resistances are marked by the declining 20-day MA at $65.948, last week's high at $67.023, and the still rising 200-day MA at $69.929.

While silver has fallen more than 50% from the $121.630 record high that was set in late January, the realities of supply and demand remain structurally bullish for the long term. Persistent global supply deficits, combined with surging industrial demand from solar energy, electric vehicles, AI data centers, and electronics, are expected to lead to an eventual resumption of the bull trend.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver correct ahead of the weekend, but downside remains vulnerable

Outside Market Developments: U.S. markets showed notable divergence this week amid ongoing tech-sector pressure and shifting macroeconomic signals. The tech-heavy Nasdaq faced repeated selling, logging multiple down days as investors rotated out of high-valuation names amid AI monetization concerns, monetary policy uncertainty, and despite Micron's blowout quarterly earnings.

The broader S&P 500 posted modest net declines, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average proved more resilient with small gains on several sessions, highlighting strength in non-tech sectors. Key influences included a more hawkish Fed stance, still accelerating inflation in May, easing geopolitical tensions that drove sharp declines in oil prices, and mixed economic data. Overall, the week reflected a risk-off mood with continued rotation from mega-cap growth into more defensive and cyclical areas.

The trade continues to digest last week's more hawkish rotation of the Warsh-led Fed and the resulting higher yields and stronger dollar. However, the trade is probably anticipating some inflation relief in the short-term, thanks to the tumble in oil prices.

The probability of a 25 bps rate hike at the July FOMC meeting has declined to 29.9% from 38.5% a week ago. Fed funds futures are pricing just 28 bps of tightening by year-end, and 32 bps into next June.

While the trade is positioning for higher-for-longer rates, arguably, they overreacted to the Fed's vow last week to deliver "price stability." FedSpeak this week highlighted that inflation indeed remains the primary concern and that current policy is appropriate, but the speakers avoided signaling imminent rate hikes or cuts.

The market is curious to know what the Warsh Fed's communication policy will look like. During his post-FOMC presser, Warsh said something that I strongly agree with: “I think financial markets perform best when they react to incoming data. I think the financial markets work less efficiently when they ask the question: ‘How will the Federal Reserve react to that incoming information?’” Trade off the data, not on what you think the Fed might think of the data.

We'll likely have further clarity on what the new Fed will look like once Warsh's five task forces deliver their findings this Fall and into year-end. Details of the task forces are as follows:

1. Fed Communications: Reviewing how the Fed conveys information to markets and the public (including the dot plot and press conferences).
2. Fed’s Balance Sheet: Examining the size, composition, and policy around the Fed’s ~$6.7 trillion balance sheet and the ample reserves regime.
3. Use and Reliance on Existing Data Sources: Looking for better, more timely, and market-driven data to inform policy decisions.
4. Productivity and Jobs: Studying productivity trends (including the impact of AI) and the labor market in the current economy.
5. Fed’s Inflation Frameworks: Re-examining the Fed’s approach to understanding inflation and achieving price stability.

This week’s US-Iran talks continued to drive optimism about a potential peace deal. The parties reportedly agreed on a roadmap to reach a comprehensive deal within the next 60 days, including working groups on nuclear issues, oversight, sanctions relief, de-escalation in Lebanon, and stability in the Strait.

Iran reportedly carried out a drone attack on a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz today, which President Trump described as a "foolish violation" of the ceasefire agreement. Calmer heads seem to be prevailing, with peace talks expected to resume next week.

Besides Middle East headline, markets will focus mainly on housing data, labor market signals, and early-June employment indicators in the week ahead. Key releases include the S&P Case-Shiller home price index and consumer confidence on Tuesday, followed by JOLTS job openings, ADP private payrolls, and ISM manufacturing PMI mid-week.

These reports will help investors gauge the health of the housing market, consumer sentiment, and labor demand amid ongoing Fed uncertainty and the recent tech-led pullback in shares. Overall, it’s a moderately busy week for data that could influence rate expectations heading into the 250th anniversary of Independence Day. Most U.S. markets will be closed on Friday, July 3rd, although it is not a Fed/bank holiday.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$28.23 (+0.70%)
5-Day Change: -$110.71 (-2.66%)
YTD Range: $3,960.16 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,256.02 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +10.83

Gold is rebounding ahead of the weekend, buoyed by some profit-taking and perhaps some heightened haven interest amid rotation out of high-valuation stocks and the Iranian ceasefire violation. A tempering of hawkish Fed expectations has also knocked the dollar off the 13-month highs set on Wednesday. Nonetheless, the yellow metal is poised for its fourth straight lower weekly close – and likely its fourth consecutive monthly decline – a streak not seen since 2022.



Upticks over the last two sessions have been limited to Wednesday's range, suggesting downside risk remains. This week's tests below $4,000 continue to suggest potential to chart/Fibonacci support at $3,887.03/86.02. Intervening supports are marked by recent lows at $3983.74 and $3,964.23/$3,960.16.

If initial resistance at $4,114.73 gives way first, look for follow-through corrective activity to the $4,200 zone. The falling 20-day moving average should reinforce the latter in the week ahead.

In advance of the return of cyclical gold strength later this summer, evidence that central banks are taking advantage of the price drop to ramp up reserve building is probably the bull camp's best hope in the near term. The World Gold Council will report central bank purchase data for May early in July.

Investors were almost assuredly liquidating ETF positions this week. If confirmed, it would be the eighth week of outflows out of the last ten. Global investors are unlikely to return in force until we start seeing some price strength.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.634 (+1.10%)
5-Day Change: -$6.737 (-10.40%)
YTD Range: $55.666 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $35.610 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +30.23

Silver is trading higher within Wednesday's range on short-covering ahead of the weekend and a holiday-shortened but data-heavy week ahead. The setback in the dollar is providing some additional support. The white metal will post its seventh straight weekly decline.



This week's plunge below $58 and the 4-Dec’25 low at $56.509 leaves two important Fibonacci levels at $53.695 and $53.340 vulnerable to tests. The ongoing rotation out of tech/AI stocks is heightening concerns about sector capex and its impact on industrial silver demand.

That said, sector pessimism has historically been short-lived, as underlying technological progress continues at a rapid pace. Micron’s strong earnings helped ease some of the negativity, but next week’s light earnings calendar offers little near-term catalyst to rekindle optimism.

Short-term upticks are likely to attract further selling interest ahead of the previous lows at $61.036/533 and Wednesday's high at $62.350. The declining 20-day MA at $66.804 looks to be well protected and should keep the high for the week at $67.023 at bay.

Silver's long-term outlook remains structurally bullish over the next 5-10 years. Persistent global supply deficits, combined with surging industrial demand from solar energy, electric vehicles, AI data centers, and electronics, are expected to support significantly higher prices.

Most analyst consensus points to $80-$140+ per ounce by 2030, with base-case targets around $100, though forecasts vary widely depending on the pace of green energy adoption and monetary conditions. Short-term volatility from macro factors like interest rates and tech sector sentiment is likely, but the fundamental tailwinds favor the underlying uptrend.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver tumble as strong jobs data dims rate cut hopes, and Middle East tensions remain elevated 

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose 172k in May, well above market expectations of +85k. Back-month revisions were +93k. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. Average hourly earnings climbed 0.3% m/m, but the annual pace of earnings growth slowed to 3.4% y/y, versus 3.6% in April.

These data are reflective of ongoing resilience in the labor market and bode well for continued economic growth. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast for Q2 is +3.0%, while the latest Philly Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters projects more modest Q2 growth of 2.1%.

Hezbollah has rejected the terms of the latest ceasefire deal between Israel and Lebanon, further eroding hopes for a broader peace deal. Iran reiterated strong support for Hezbollah and is now demanding full Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon. That's not going to happen, and Israel is continuing drone/air strikes in southern Lebanon.

Iran claims it fired warning shots at a U.S. Navy destroyer in the Gulf of Oman, forcing it to withdraw. CentCom quickly disavowed the claim, saying, "Iran is lying. U.S. military assets at sea continue to fly, sail, and operate safely and unimpeded.”

President Trump continues to express optimism about a peace deal, but tensions persist and negotiations seem to have stalled. The U.S. maintains the ceasefire with Iran is holding but has conducted "self-defense" strikes. Tehran says talks are suspended or complicated by ongoing Israel-Hezbollah fighting. IDF actions in Lebanon raised the ire of President Trump, prompting a heated phone call with Benjamin Netanyahu earlier in the week.

While oil is well off the April/May highs, Brent crude is still up nearly 40% from a year ago and continues to stoke inflation worries. That, combined with ongoing signs of os a resilient economy, fosters higher-for-longer rate expectations, which is providing support for the dollar. The dollar index jumped to eight-week highs to pressure 100.

The Fed is still widely expected to hold steady at the June FOMC meeting, the first presided over by new chairman Kevin Warsh. However, Fed funds futures now reflect scope for 23.5 bps of tightening by year-end.

The market will be focused on U.S. inflation data in the week ahead. May CPI will be released on Wednesday, and the market is expecting acceleration to 4.2% (headline) and 2.9% (core) from 3.8% and 2.8% in April. May PPI comes out on Thursday. Headline PPI is expected to accelerate to 6.5% y/y, versus +6.0% in April, while core PPI is forecasted to hold steady at 5.2%.

Hot inflation readings could bolster Fed rate hike expectations next week, driving bullish moves in yields and the dollar. However, Middle East headlines continue to have the potential to override these fundamentals.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$8.84 (-0.20%)
5-Day Change: -$71.85 (-1.58%)
YTD Range: $4,100.32 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,256.02 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +27.03

Gold has tumbled to ten-week lows after strong jobs data further diminished hopes for a Fed rate cut this year, driving yields and the U.S. dollar higher. Persistent Middle East tensions added to the selling pressure. The yellow metal is heading for a roughly 3% weekly loss and its first close below the 200-day moving average since late 2023.



Good economic news is bad news for gold right now, as strong jobs data further reduces the odds of a Fed rate cut this year and even raises the possibility of a future hike. When combined with persistent Middle East tensions that are supporting oil prices and inflation expectations, today’s sell-off comes as little surprise – especially during a seasonally weak period for the metal.

Looking ahead, progress toward a Middle East peace deal or signs of cooling inflation could revive buying interest next week. The latter appears unlikely in the near term, meaning developments in the Middle East will likely dictate gold’s direction in the week ahead.

The convincing breach of the 200-day MA shifts focus to the $4,268.92 Fibonacci level initially, but a retest of the March low at $4,100.32 must now be considered. If the market sets new lows for the year, the $4,000 zone would be in play.

The falling 20-day moving average at $4,538.56 must be regained to ease downside pressure somewhat, favoring further consolidation within the $5,595.02/$4,100.3 range. Intervening resistances are noted at $4,367.12, $4,400.00, and $4,443.95.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$1.021 (-1.38%)
5-Day Change: -$2.164 (-2.87%)
YTD Range: $61.036 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $35.369 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +82.75

Silver plunged more than 7% on Friday, weighed by weakness in gold and a stronger dollar. The white metal is poised for about an 8% loss for the week, and its fourth consecutive lower weekly close.



There have been growing signs of AI fatigue in early June, which may be contributing to a bit of a headwind for silver.
While AI-related capex and data center buildout remain part of a broadly positive narrative, sky-high valuations pose risk, prompting investor rotation toward less aggressive stances heading into summer.

Silver has fallen to approach its 200-day moving average at $68.124 after failing to climb into the upper half of this year's range in May. A breach of the 200-day MA would highlight the $67.091 Fibonacci level. Below that, chart supports at 66.763 (26-Mar low) and $66.030 (24-Mar low) would be in play. While the March low at $61.036 still looks to be protected, bull camp confidence has certainly taken a hit today.

A rebound above $72.488/$72.630 is needed to ease downside pressure and reestablish a more consolidative tone within the lower half of the broad range. The probability of such a rebound will hinge on Middle East headlines and U.S. inflation data next week.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.