Blog posts tagged with 'precious metals'

Gold and silver higher as dollar and oil weaken ahead of this week's inflation data

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: U.S. markets are trying to claw back some of last week’s AI-driven losses to start the week, as bargain hunters step in after the post-midterm tech sell-off. Investors continue to digest the Democratic midterm gains and the resulting uncertainty around potential AI regulation and tech oversight.

Nvidia is the clear outlier, sliding on news that its board has opened an independent investigation into CEO Jensen Huang, after reports surfaced alleging he had a relationship with a woman linked to Chinese intelligence efforts. The company has stated it has no reason to believe any company secrets were compromised and continues to express confidence in Huang’s leadership while the probe continues.

Oil prices remain under pressure after President Trump indicated further U.S. attacks on Iran were “highly unlikely” while diplomatic talks continue, reducing fears of fresh supply disruptions. The decline is helping ease broader inflation concerns, providing a modest tailwind for equities and supporting gold’s rebound as markets weigh the implications for the Fed's policy path.

Key U.S. inflation data takes center stage this week, with the October CPI due Tuesday and PPI on Friday. Markets will scrutinize the numbers closely after last week’s solid jobs report raised December rate-hike odds, as any signs of cooling – or persistent stickiness – could reshape expectations for the Fed’s next move.

With the market anticipating warmer headline CPI and PPI readings, Fed funds futures currently put the probability of a 25 bps rate hike in December at 82.2%. About 33 bps of tightening is implied through March 2027.

This week also features a busy slate of Federal Reserve speakers, including Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, Governor Christopher Waller, and Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, set to deliver remarks. Their comments mark the first major public appearances after the October FOMC meeting, the midterm lurch to the left, and Friday’s strong jobs report. Markets will be listening closely for any hints of forward guidance.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$42.56 (+1.05%)
5-Day Change: +$171.94 (+4.36%)
YTD Range: $3,870.47 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,870.47 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: -4.02

Gold begins the week with a bit of a bid at the high end of last week's range. The yellow metal is being buoyed by weakness in the dollar and oil, despite more hawkish Fed expectations.



Last week's high at $4,058.97 has yet to experience a true retest. A breach of this level is needed to open the door to probes of the $4,200 zone, where the 38.2% retracement level of the recent leg down corresponds closely with the falling 100- and 50-day moving averages.

A series of daily highs going back to late September above $4,200 is probably the more important resistance. If gold can muster six-week highs above $4,217.02/4,225.02, considerable credence would be lent to the scenario that suggests a significant low is in place at $3,870.47.

Global gold ETFs experienced a net outflow of 8.7 tonnes ($1.1 billion) last week—marking the second weekly contraction in three weeks. While recent price correction has prompted some unwinding of speculative long positioning and cross-asset deleveraging, the relatively modest scale of the outflows underscores underlying investor resilience.

Further stoking the tailwind for gold, central banks and other official institutions added 321 tonnes in the third quarter according to the World Gold Council – surpassing the five-year quarterly average of 227 tonnes by 42% and pushing year-to-date purchases to 675 tonnes. While disclosed country-level buying was led by China (63 tonnes) and Poland (40 tonnes), sustained central bank demand at historically elevated price levels underscores a broader, ongoing structural shift toward strategic reserve diversification.

In a comment last week, Johan Palmberg of the WGC identifies three key historical indicators that signal when a gold sell-off in a bear regime is reaching an interim bottom: gold trading well below its 200-day moving average (measuring market dislocation), a sharp rally in the U.S. dollar, and a washout of speculative futures positioning. Historically, when all three conditions were met, subsequent three-month gold returns were positive in every instance.

Currently, two of these three conditions are in place: gold is trading well below its trend, and the dollar has rallied. However, "speculative froth has not yet been fully cleared," according to Palmberg.  He believes a final shake-out may be needed before the recovery setup is fully complete.

Today's Asian low at $4,054.63 marks initial support and protects Friday's low at $4,030.51. A short-term retreat below $4,000 would leave the recent low at $3,870.47 vulnerable to further attacks.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.727(+1.40%)
5-Day Change: +$2.107 (+4.16%)
YTD Range: $48.624 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $48.335 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: -12.26

Silver is higher today, riding a softer dollar and falling oil prices that eased inflation worries. The metal is tracking gold higher ahead of Tuesday’s CPI report, which will shape near-term Fed expectations.



Last week's high at $53.474 remains intact thus far, with a minor retracement level at $53.924 and the falling 20-day moving average at $54.184 conspiring to block the upside. A short-term close above the 20-day is needed to embolden the bull camp and put the $58 zone in play.

However, concerns that a Democrat-controlled Congress will move early next year to limit AI development, thereby curbing near-term industrial demand for silver, pose a headwind. At the same time, heightened regulatory uncertainty and any resulting market volatility could support silver’s safe-haven appeal, proving some offsetting support.

Today's low so far at $51.419 provides initial support. A breach of Friday's low at $51.200 would suggest potential for a retest of last week at $48.624. Penetration of the latter would favor a downside extension to the $48 zone initially, although a push to the $45.563 low from last October would have to be considered.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver rebound post-midterms, helped by lower yields, dollar, and oil

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: U.S. markets awoke to a decisive political shift as Democrats secured control of both the House and Senate in the midterm elections. The result has weakened the dollar, pulled Treasury yields lower, lifted gold above $4,000, and sparked a rally in stocks.

The Democrat takeover of Congress is weighing on the dollar amid expectations of political gridlock and tighter regulation, especially around AI and data centers. Investors now expect less fiscal stimulus and a potential slowdown in the AI-driven investment boom that has attracted large foreign capital inflows into U.S. assets. That shift is prompting lower Treasury yields and reduced demand for the greenback.

Oil prices are lower as traders dial back the geopolitical risk premium on hopes of progress in U.S.-Iran peace talks mediated by Qatar, alongside potential talks between Russia and Ukraine. Mixed diplomatic signals and some recovery in Middle East crude flows have outweighed tighter U.S. inventory data, keeping downward pressure on crude even as supply risks in the Strait of Hormuz persist.

U.S. data this week continues to point to underlying economic resilience, with ADP private payrolls rising a solid 86k in October and weekly jobless claims remaining near historically low levels. Services activity is also expected to stay in expansion territory. Friday’s official jobs report is forecast to show nonfarm payrolls rising around 60k, with the unemployment rate holding steady near 4.2%. Such a reading would underscore a labor market that has cooled but not cracked.

One might expect that the potential for throttled growth might also tame inflationary pressures somewhat, reducing the likelihood of further Fed tightening. However, expectations for a 25 bps rate hike in December are back above 80% today. Fed funds futures imply 33 bps of tightening through March 2027. The October jobs report may clarify the picture.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$166.22 (+4.29%)
5-Day Change: -$22.75 (-0.56%)
YTD Range: $3,870.47 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,870.47 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: -5.20

Gold is up more than 3% in the wake of the U.S. midterm election, helped by lower yields, a weaker dollar, and easier oil. Some of the bid is likely attributable to safe-haven buying amid post-election uncertainty and bargain hunting after the yellow metal hit 52-week lows on Friday.



The rebound above $4,000 is encouraging for the bull camp, but last week's high at $4,081.08, fortified by the 20-day moving average at $4,075.62, has contained the upside this far. A close above this zone is needed to bolster a bottoming scenario and clear the way for renewed probes above $4,200.

The significance of the late-September and early-October highs above $4,200 is bolstered by the declining 100- and 50-day MAs. A short-term penetration of this area would bode well for further retracement toward $4,400.

Central banks remained a key source of gold demand in the third quarter, adding an estimated net 321 tonnes to reserves, +42% from a year earlier and the strongest quarterly total since late 2024. The buying lifted year-to-date purchases to 675 tonnes, 6% higher than the same period in 2025, as official institutions continued to prioritize portfolio diversification and risk management even at elevated prices. 

Central bank buying appears to have carried momentum into early Q4, with reported purchases in September remaining solid and key buyers such as China still active. The World Gold Council has raised its full-year 2026 forecast for official-sector demand to at least match 2025 levels, with the strong third quarter raising the possibility of a higher annual figure.

Looking into 2027, central banks are widely expected to remain significant buyers as diversification and risk-management motives persist. That structural support, alongside recent price stabilization, increases the likelihood that the recent soft patch in gold has marked a low.

The early U.S.-session low at $4,029.80 marks initial support ahead of the $4,000 level. Below the latter, previous lows at $3,976.53 and $3,934.52 now protect last week's low at $3,870.47.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$2.194 (+4.41%)
5-Day Change: -$1.908 (-3.54%)
YTD Range: $48.624 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $46.910 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: -11.36

Silver is leading the way higher, buoyed by declining yields, a softer dollar, and lower oil prices. The white metal is up more than 5% on the day, trading comfortably above $52.



At this point, the declining 20-day moving average is well protected above $55. A series of highs from late October at $54.593/725 provide a good intervening barrier.

A short-term close above the 20-day is needed to clear the way for a push to the 20-Oct high at $58.571. Above that, the $60 zone would be back in play.

Democrats have traditionally favored tighter limits on fossil-fuel expansion and stronger support for renewables. A shift in that direction would favor solar and other clean-energy projects. Because silver is a key input in photovoltaic panels, any acceleration in renewable buildout may support higher industrial demand for the metal.

On the other side of the coin, silver is also deeply embedded in data-center infrastructure and advanced manufacturing that power the AI buildout. If Democrats try to slow the AI and broader tech growth through tighter regulation or reduced fiscal support, it could remove one of the stronger structural underpinnings the market has enjoyed.

An intraday retreat below $52 would return focus to the early U.S. low at $51.642. Minor chart points at $51.258 and $50.890 stand in front of the $50 level and today's low at 48.977. It's too early to suggest that yesterday's low at $48.624 is a significant bottom.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver recover somewhat from Friday's drops

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Markets begin the week with a tentative rebound from last week’s tech-driven sell-off as investors brace for two pivotal catalysts that could set the tone for the rest of the year: Tuesday’s U.S. midterm elections and the upcoming jobs report. With control of Congress hanging in the balance and fresh labor-market data expected to shape Fed expectations, the week ahead promises heightened volatility as traders weigh political outcomes against economic resilience.

If Democrats take only the House, they gain powerful oversight tools – committee chairs, subpoenas, and investigations into the administration – while also complicating the passage of spending bills and forcing more negotiations on appropriations. However, President Trump would retain the ability to advance most of his agenda through the Republican-controlled Senate and his veto power.

Prediction markets put the probability of Democrats winning both chambers at ~74%. If that happens, the constraints on the Trump administration tighten significantly: new legislation becomes far harder to pass, judicial and executive nominations are likely to be blocked, funding for key priorities can be restricted, and Trump is left relying almost entirely on executive actions amid sustained Democratic investigations and gridlock.

Michael Hartnett of Bank of America warns that a Democratic sweep would mark “an electoral shift from populist capitalism to populist socialism,” with U.S. stocks potentially falling more than 10%. Hartnett and others fear a Democrat-controlled Congress could throttle AI and data-center investment, weighing on economic growth. However, historically, the S&P 500 has risen in the 12 months after every midterm since the post-World War II era, and the removal of election uncertainty itself often supports markets.

Oil prices dropped more than 6% on Monday as renewed diplomatic efforts between Iranian and Qatari officials raised hopes of progress toward ending the Iran conflict. The talks, including circulation of a draft proposal, eased immediate concerns over further Middle East supply disruptions, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude fell to an eleven-session low below $109, and WTI probed below $100, reversing some of the recent gains that had pushed prices to six-month highs amid fears of post-midterm escalation.

The probability of a Fed rate hike in December has rebounded to 76.8%, versus 70.7% on Friday, 72.8% a week ago, and 67.3% a month ago. The October jobs report on Friday will hopefully provide some clarity going into year-end after the Fed delivered a hawkish hold last week. The market is expecting a NFP increase of 65k and a steady jobless rate of 4.2%.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$25.83 (+0.67%)
5-Day Change: -$109.85 (-2.73%)
YTD Range: $3,870.47 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,870.47 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: -9.59

Gold is recovering from Friday's sharp drop to new lows for the year, helped by the retreat in oil, an easier dollar, and perhaps some bargain hunting. The yellow metal remains confined to Friday's range thus far, and that may be the case through tomorrow's session, awaiting the outcome of the midterms. 



Considerable technical damage was done last week, and the downside remains vulnerable at this point. Fresh lows for the year below $3,870.47 would suggest potential to the $3,800 zone, with potential to the $3.741.31 Fibonacci projection. Below the latter, the halfway-back point of the post-COVID rally at $3,605.58 would attract.

However, longer-term bullish projections prevail. A late-October Reuters poll slightly trimmed the 2026 average forecast to $4,495 while lifting the 2027 median to $4,650, and major banks such as UBS, Goldman Sachs, and others have largely held firm on targets of $5,000–$5,400 by mid-to-late 2027. Most view the roughly 30% retreat from January’s record as a healthy correction and accumulation opportunity, supported by ongoing central-bank buying and structural demand, rather than a signal of a sustained bear market.

A rebound above $4,000 would provide some mild encouragement for the bull camp, shifting focus to the declining 20-day moving average at $4,090.52. A close above the 20-day would suggest potential for renewed probes above $4,200. Those October highs above $4,200 are now reinforced by the declining 100- and 50-day moving averages.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.996 (+2.03%)
5-Day Change: -$3.862 (-7.15%)
YTD Range: $48.871 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $46.885 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: -15.84

Silver has rebounded more than 3% to start the week, buoyed by a drop in oil prices and a softer dollar. However, gains at this point must be viewed as corrective within the recently reestablished downtrend.



Tomorrow's midterms could intensify headwinds for silver and industrial metals if Democrats gain control of Congress.  This may increase scrutiny and constraints on AI data-center expansion, tempering demand for copper, aluminum, and related metals. Silver faces milder indirect effects via slower tech demand, plus sensitivity to fiscal gridlock and rates.

Silver's dual role as a precious and industrial metal may provide some cushioning, along with the persistent supply imbalance. Long-term drivers of demand like electrification will remain intact, where a divided government is mainly seen as creating uncertainty rather than major disruption.

Today's early U.S. low at $49.926 marks initial support, protecting Friday's low at $48.871. Below the latter, there's a minor chart point at $48.643 (21-Nov'25 low). More substantial support is provided by the low end of the bear channel, just below $45, and the 161.8% retracement level of the summer rally at $44.689.

Today's early U.S. high at $51.258 now protects Friday's high at $52.224. Penetration of the latter would bode well for short-term attacks on the series of daily highs above $54. However, the declining 20-day moving average at $56.328 must be regained on a close basis to ease pressure on the downside.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver tumble to new lows for the year

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Wall Street is ending October under pressure as a deepening tech selloff – sparked by disappointing results from Amazon and Intel – reignites investor doubts about the massive AI spending binge and whether those investments will deliver adequate returns anytime soon.

Risk-off sentiment is triggering broader deleveraging, with forced selling spilling into precious metals, crypto, and other risk assets, while Treasuries emerge as the clear beneficiary of safe-haven flows. The 10-year Treasury yield fell about 6 bps to 4.93%.

Oil prices remain elevated on Friday, with WTI crude trading around $104 and Brent at five-month highs above $118, supported by persistent Middle East supply risks tied to the Iran conflict. Rumblings of possible renewed U.S. military actions after next week’s midterms are providing additional lift, even as intermittent diplomatic signals have provided periodic relief

High oil prices, along with this week's hot PCE and strong Q3 GDP prints, mean the higher-for-longer rate scenario prevails. The Fed, ECB, and BoJ all delivered hawkish holds, while the BoC hiked by 25 bps.

“While overall financial conditions are tighter, I’m unwilling and unable to call them tight,” Fed Chairman Warsh said during Wednesday’s press conference. Though he reiterated that he doesn't believe in forward guidance, the remark signals he still views policy as insufficiently restrictive and is open to further tightening.

The October pause and the expressed desire to see more data suggest the Fed is comfortable making decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis. As a result, the probability of a December hike actually moderated somewhat to 76%, from more than 80% pre-FOMC.

Markets next week will primarily focus on the U.S. midterm elections on Tuesday, which could reshape control of Congress and influence fiscal policy expectations. Alongside the political drama, key economic data will draw attention, including the ISM manufacturing and services surveys, JOLTS job openings, ADP employment figures, and Friday’s October nonfarm payrolls report, all of which will help shape views on growth, the labor market, and the Fed’s path ahead of year-end.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$42.27 (-1.05%)
5-Day Change: -$39.15 (-0.98%)
YTD Range: $3,945.52 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,929.37 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: -8.18

Gold fell to new lows for the year and new 52-week lows, amid higher oil prices that continue to stoke inflation worries and expectations of further central bank rate hikes. Deleveraging pressures stemming from stock market losses are adding additional pressure. The yellow metal is poised for its third straight lower weekly close, and the second consecutive monthly loss.



Gold has been trading more like a risk asset, selling off alongside equities amid rising real yields, a stronger dollar, and shifting rate expectations, rather than acting as a reliable hedge in the current environment. Treasuries seem to be garnering the bulk of the safe-haven interest, although today's softer yields and setback in the dollar have failed to provide much support.

This is discouraging to investors who have relied on the historic inverse correlation with equities to provide cushioning when stocks sell off. I expect significant gold ETF outflows will be confirmed this week and may continue next week.

The rising 100-week moving average at $3,869.40 is the next support level I'm watching. It's been three years since gold traded below this indicator. If the 100-week MA gives way, the $3.741.31 Fibonacci objective would be the next attraction.

The trade is on the hunt for the much-touted central bank bid. The downside will remain vulnerable until it's found. Potential may be as low as the halfway-back point of the post-COVID rally at $3,605.58.

Today's U.S. high at $3,955.01 marks initial resistance. Above that, previous lows at $3,976.53/$3,978.82 protect today's high at $4,026.15, the high for the week at $4,081.08, and the falling 20-day MA at $4,100.60.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$1.637 (-3.14%)
5-Day Change: -$3.844 (-7.13%)
YTD Range: $50.129 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $46.885 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: -16.78

Silver plunged nearly 6% to trade below $50 for the first time since last November amid ramped-up higher-for-longer rate expectations, heightened worries about the tech/AI sector and broad deleveraging pressures. The white metal is on track for a third lower weekly close and its second straight monthly loss.



With the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement projection at $50.337 negated along the way, the 150% retracement level at $46.618, which corresponds closely with the 52-week low at $46.885, may be the next attraction. Below that, the low end of the bear channel will be just above $45 next week and protects the 161.8% retracement level at $44.689.

The gold/silver ratio rebounded more than 15% in October to trade at 11-month highs above 79. The 80 level is the next attraction for the ratio, suggesting silver weakness may continue into next week.

Like with gold, I think investors are becoming increasingly disillusioned with silver. This risks further outflows from silver ETFs and physical holdings, potentially prolonging price weakness even as the structural supply imbalance persists.

That's a lot of gloom and doom, which is sometimes indicative that a bottom is near. While I wouldn't recommend trying to catch the falling knife, silver hasn't been this oversold in more than three years. Scope is seen for a corrective bounce, but we're a long way from levels that would return any confidence to the long-term uptrend.

I'd call first resistance $50. Above that, the U.S. high at $50.571 and the high for the day at $52.224 stand in front of this week's high at $54.593 (28-Oct).

PGMs

This week both platinum and palladium extended their declines amid sticky U.S. inflation data and rising expectations of further Fed rate hikes, which kept real yields elevated and weighed on non-yielding precious metals. Platinum slipped more than 7%, to reach 12-month lows just shy of $1,400. Meanwhile, palladium fell nearly 6% to trade below $1,000 for the first time since June  2025. Near-term pressure on the PGMs is likely to persist from elevated rates and soft auto demand, though platinum’s tighter supply balance leaves it better positioned for a recovery than palladium if industrial conditions improve.

Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver easier ahead of Fed decision

Outside Market Developments: Markets are focused on the Fed’s policy decision due this afternoon, with a hold on rates widely expected, while tech stocks continue to draw strength from strong AI-related earnings and momentum out of Asia. Oil prices are climbing amid renewed Middle East tensions, Treasury yields remain elevated, and major results from Microsoft and Alphabet are set to land after the close.

Fed funds futures put the likelihood of an October pause at more than 90%, with an 84% chance of a 25 bps hike at the final FOMC meeting of 2026 in December. There will be no economic projections today, so the trade will try to read between the lines in the statement and hope the press can get Chairman Warsh to reveal some forward-guidance clues. I don't expect they'll be successful, so the higher-for-longer expectations will persist.

The Bank of Canada raised its key overnight interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% already today, in line with expectations. This marks its first rate hike in nearly three years and aims to curb the risk of elevated energy prices spreading more broadly into inflation, which is now projected to average around 3% through much of 2027 before returning near the 2% target by mid-2028.

The ECB is scheduled to announce policy tomorrow, and the BoJ is up on Friday. Both are expected to deliver hawkish pauses that leave the door open for further tightening as soon as December.

Solidifying that expectation, Japan’s nationwide core CPI rose 2.1% y/y in September, while the core-core measure excluding fresh food and energy accelerated to 2.4%. The Bank of Japan’s preferred underlying gauge, which further strips out special factors such as energy subsidies, jumped more sharply to 3.2%, highlighting stronger persistent price pressures.

Similarly, Euro area annual inflation accelerated to 3.8% in September, its highest level since September 2023 and up from 3.2% in August. The rise was driven primarily by a sharp jump in energy prices to 18.9%, while core inflation edged higher to 2.5%.

Israel’s parliamentary elections have produced no clear winner, with partial results and exit polls showing both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc and rival Gadi Eisenkot’s opposition alliance falling short of the 61 seats needed for a Knesset majority. Voter turnout hit a two-decade high of 77.7%, and prolonged coalition negotiations are now expected as both sides claim a mandate. At the same time, Arab parties could win as many as 20 seats and emerge as potential kingmakers.

Oil prices are firmer today, recovering from recent mild weakness. Persistent Middle East supply risks and geopolitical tensions continue to support elevated levels, keeping a significant risk premium embedded in the market.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$15.38 (-0.38%)
5-Day Change: -$85.10 (-2.05%)
YTD Range: $3,945.52 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,915.82 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: -4.97

Gold is easier in advance of today's Fed decision. While steady policy is widely expected today, persistent worries about energy-led inflation are keeping yields and the dollar elevated near their recent highs, and providing a headwind for the yellow metal.



Markets in general remain on edge in the wake of last week's risk-off/deleveraging event. Marex was convinced that  "Gold tested $4,000 on long liquidation, not fresh shorts." However, the proximity to the low for the year at $3,945.52 (30-Jun) is a likely attraction for the bear camp as there are likely some longer-term stops down there. There's also considerable curiosity about where, exactly, the much-touted central bank bid is.

Any hint of a more hawkish tone from the Fed – or any of the other central banks for that matter – could embolden the bears. The fact that silver has already set new lows for the year bolsters their case.

New lows for the year would shift focus to the rising 100-week moving average at $3,870.82. If that level were to give way as well, a 50% retracement of the dramatic rally from the post-COVID low at $1,616.14 would have to be considered, highlighting $3,605.58. That still strikes me as a low probability at this point because I think the official sector bid lies somewhere ahead of that level.

Initial resistance is marked by Friday's high at $4,033.01. Above that, the previous lows at $4,067.07/$4,073.90 provide a more formidable barrier. The falling 20-day MA at $4,131.12 really needs to be regained on a close basis to truly ease pressure on the downside.

Today's Asian high of $4,070.43 reinforced resistance marked by the previous lows at $4,067.07/$4,073.90. The falling 20-day MA at $4,119.01 must be cleared on a close basis to relieve pressure on the downside. However, a sustained push above $4,200 is needed to revive confidence in the scenario that suggests the low for the year was set at the end of June. 


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.676 (-1.24%)
5-Day Change: -$3.930 (-6.78%)
YTD Range: $52.678 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $46.873 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: -7.22

Silver set a new low for the year on Tuesday, but managed a higher close, resulting in a key reversal. However, upside follow-through is needed to confirm the bullish technical pattern. The white metal is lower today, awaiting the Fed decision.

 

The rising 100-week moving average comes in at $53.247, bolstering the recent lows. Should this area give way, a downside extension to the $50.337 Fibonacci level would have to be considered.

On the upside, Friday's high at $54.725 and the July low at $54.778 are still the short-term levels to watch. Penetration would shift focus to the mid-October lows at $55.409/498. Above that,  the declining 20-day moving average at $57.835 and last week's high at $58.571 would attract.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver fall to nine-week lows amid persistent yield and dollar strength

Outside Market Developments: Markets are in a risk-off mode today with bond yields and the dollar back on the bid, oil prices higher amid renewed Middle East tensions, and caution ahead of today's release of the September FOMC minutes. Stocks (especially growth/tech names) are pulling back from recent record highs.

Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz had nearly returned to pre-war levels in recent weeks, with crude exports reaching a seven-day average of about 13.5 million barrels per day – matching the pre-conflict baseline – and overall regional Middle East crude flows even exceeding pre-war averages on multiple days in late September. However, a recent surge in Iranian attacks on vessels in and around the strait has heightened shipping risks and insurance costs, preventing a full normalization of supply security and helping keep global oil prices elevated above $100 per barrel.

Today’s FOMC minutes from the September meeting are likely to reveal a broader internal debate, despite the unanimous 25 bps suggested, highlighting divergent views among officials on the need for further tightening versus a more patient approach. They are expected to underscore persistent inflation risks that supported the median projection for one additional hike in 2026, while also reflecting discussions of solid economic growth and balanced labor-market risks at the time. Evidence of some degree of reluctance among the dovish-tilted members could spark a rally in Fed funds futures.

Global bond yields have climbed sharply in recent sessions, with the U.S. 10-year note yield rising to around 5.33-5.35% and the 30-year bond yield hitting approximately 5.70-5.73%, both marking their highest levels since 2002. The sell-off has been broad-based, with U.K. 30-year gilt yields surging to a 28-year high near 6.03% and European yields, particularly in France and Italy, also advancing amid persistent inflation concerns and elevated oil prices. For heavily indebted countries, the sharp rise in global yields translates into soaring debt-servicing costs that threaten to strain already fragile budgets and amplify fiscal stress.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$47.03 (-1.13%)
5-Day Change: -$32.96 (-0.79%)
YTD Range: $3,945.52 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,887.03 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: -3.20

Gold slid to nine-week lows, weighed by expectations that the Fed will tighten at least one more time this year, which is underpinning yields and the dollar. The bear camp seemed disinclined to press the technical advantage ahead of this afternoon's release of the FOMC minutes from the September meeting.

 

Minor chart support at $4,065.84 (5-Aug low) has contained the downside thus far, but tests of secondary supports at $4,043.54 (4-Aug low) and $4,022.62 (3-Aug low) must now be considered. As noted earlier in the week, I still believe the low for the year is in at $3,945.52 (30-Jun), but my confidence in that scenario has eroded somewhat with today's downside extension.

Former lows at $4,124.23/$4,125.55 now mark first resistance. Above that, today's overseas high at $4,169.88 protects the high for the week at $4,183.65. A breach of the latter would clear the way for renewed tests above $4,200, where the highs from late last week and the declining 20- and 100-day moving averages come into play.

Not surprisingly, the World Gold Council's Gold Return Attribution Model (GRAM) confirmed that "a rise in yields and a stronger US dollar were major contributors to September’s drop in [gold] prices." The WGC went on to note that while COMEX positioning contracted sharply, global gold ETFs "recorded US$10bn (67t) of inflows across regions. North America led the charge, followed by Europe and Asia."



I found this paragraph from the WGC report interesting as I've had some difficulty justifying how the current market conditions warrant multi-decade high yields in government bonds, unless concerns about massive and growing debt loads are quietly (for now) ramping:

"Rising government bond yields have generated intense debate this year. Explanations range from stronger growth and a return to historical norms, to fiscal risk and a weakening safe-haven premium. Europe’s surge in gold ETF inflows, led by the UK and exceeding US inflows over the past three months, suggests some investors may see the rise in yields as a warning rather than a healthy normalisation." 

China’s central bank continued gold purchases for a 23rd consecutive month in September, providing some structural demand. Longer-term forecasts from the LBMA conference in Sorrento, Italy still point to potential upside toward $5,000 over the next 12 months, while near-term sentiment is cautious with a downside bias until there's some clarity on the Fed's policy intentions. I'm not expecting to get that from the FOMC minutes today.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$1.292 (-2.11%)
5-Day Change: -$0.139 (-0.23%)
YTD Range: $54.778 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $45.563 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +5.50

Silver fell to a nine-week low of $59 in early U.S. trading, amid persistently high yields and renewed dollar strength. The trade is eagerly anticipating the September FOMC minutes, although I'm doubtful any new insights will be revealed.



Additional losses with potential to the $58.272 Fibonacci level must now be considered. Below that, the late-July lows at $56.681/583 would be in play.

A close back above $60 today would ease pressure on the downside somewhat, but the 20-, 50-, and 100-day moving averages must be regained to allow for a retest of recent highs at $62.021/079. Further out, the $70 level is the key to unlocking more significant retracement of this year's losses toward $80.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver continue to face headwinds from dollar strength and elevated yields

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: The market has significantly reduced expectations of another rate hike in October, following last week's disappointing jobs report for September. Additionally, the Fed's favored measure of inflation for August came in cooler than expected.

Fed funds futures suggest the probability of steady policy at the next FOMC meeting now stands at 78.4%, that's up from 29.1% a week ago. While diminished, the market still sees a strong probability (84.8%) of at least one 25 bps rate hike by year-end.

U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated today, with the 10-year note hovering near 5.25-5.28%, close to multi-year highs amid ongoing fiscal and inflation concerns. The dollar index hit fresh 18-month highs in overseas trading before moderating somewhat. The greenback is supported by relative U.S. economic strength, the still-hawkish Fed tilt, and generally attractive interest rate differentials.



Iranian Foreign Minister stressed on Sunday that there is “no military solution” and only fair negotiations can end the war, while warning of a stronger response to any renewed confrontation. Meanwhile, Washington is maintaining its focus on economic pressure and a blockade of Iranian ports amid stalled diplomacy.

Brent crude is modestly easier to start the week but is still above the pivotal $100 level amid the diplomatic stalemate between the U.S. and Iran and ongoing attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. However, gains have been capped by potential coordinated releases of emergency crude reserves by G7 nations.

ISM Services PMI eased to 54.9 in September 2026 from 55.4 in August, signaling continued expansion in the service sector but at a slightly slower pace than expected. While key sub-components like business activity and new orders remained resilient, rising input cost measures indicated persistent inflationary pressures.

The market is also looking forward to the release of the September FOMC minutes for clues on the path of interest rates after soft jobs data reduced October hike odds. Attention will also turn to the early stages of earnings season, ongoing movements in elevated Treasury yields and oil prices, and other data such as jobless claims and consumer sentiment.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$2.94 (+0.07%)
5-Day Change: +$45.80 (+1.11%)
YTD Range: $3,945.52 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,884.61 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: -2.00

Gold has been unable to sustain intraday gains and remains generally defensive in the wake of Friday's weaker-than-expected jobs report. While another rate hike in October is looking less likely, the probability for further tightening before year-end remains elevated, keeping yields and the dollar underpinned.



A breach of last week's low at $4,111.49 would put the $4,106.19 Fibonacci level to the test. If the latter gives way, scope would be for a downside extension to the August low at $4,022.62. Minor intervening barriers are noted at $4,065.84 and $4,043.54. While I still believe the summer low at $3,945.52 will remain intact, amid structural underpinning, confidence in that scenario will erode with each successive breach of support.

On the upside, Friday's high at $4,225.02 must be cleared to return focus to the late-September congestion band around $4,300, where important moving averages have converged. A close above the still-climbing 50-day MA at $4,327.72 is needed to confirm a more favorable short-term tone.

Metals Focus forecasts that despite near-term headwinds from high U.S. inflation and rising interest rates, gold will reach new record highs in 2027 with an annual average price of $5,330. They believe strong investment demand, U.S. debt concerns, persistent geopolitical risks, and sustained central bank buying will remain the key drivers supporting gold.

According to Nikkei Asia, Asian gold-producing countries are taking steps to keep more of their domestic gold supply within their borders following recent price surges. Driven by a mix of "resource nationalism," waning confidence in the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency, and fears of international sanctions, governments are moving to increase domestic refining, restrict exports through taxes, and build up their central banks' official reserves.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$1.447 (+2.40%)
5-Day Change: +$0.914 (+1.51%)
YTD Range: $54.778 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $45.563 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +8.64

Silver is maintaining intraday gains, but remains within Friday's range. The white metal is displaying comparative strength versus gold amid AI optimism and risk-on sentiment, which has pushed the Nasdaq to new record highs.



A rebound above the 20-, 50-, 100-day moving average complex is needed to take pressure off the downside and shift focus to the late-September highs at $67.513/529 and the more important 9-Sep high at $68.314. The latter is the key to unlock the $70 zone.

Metals Focus (MF) projects silver to strengthen over the next 12 to 18 months by tracking gold higher before eventually outperforming it as renewed price momentum attracts investor interest. They anticipate this growth will be driven primarily by investment demand rather than physical tightness, as weakening demand in physical markets, jewelry, and industrial fabrication caps immediate support.

Friday's low at $59.708 stands in front of the $58.272 Fibonacci level. Below that, the late-July lows at $56.681/583 would be in play.

PGMs

The outlook for platinum remains constructive despite significant volatility this year, which saw prices hit a record high near $2,900 before pulling back. Supply is heavily concentrated in South Africa (with notable contributions from Russia and elsewhere) and has faced persistent constraints from operational challenges, while demand has generally outpaced production in recent years. This has led to multi-year market deficits that have significantly depleted above-ground stocks.

Platinum is currently trading just above $1,700. Looking ahead, even with forecasts of a modest surplus or near-balance in 2026 (partly tied to investment flows), inventories remain critically low (around a few months of demand cover), supporting a constructive longer-term outlook driven by structural supply tightness and resilient industrial/jewelry demand. Metals Focus projects platinum will average $1,930 in 2026 (up 51% year-over-year) and rise further to an annual average of $2,060 in 2027.

The palladium market has shifted from prolonged deficits toward balance or surplus conditions amid rising recycling, production adjustments, and pressure on automotive demand from the gradual shift toward electric vehicles. Prices are currently around $1,170-1,200. The near-to-medium-term outlook is more subdued than platinum’s, with potential for continued softness or range-bound trading as vehicle electrification and thrifting weigh on consumption, though supply disruptions or slower EV uptake could provide some support.

Metals Focus tilts more bullish, expecting strong performance in 2026 – averaging $1,440 – driven by strategic demand, risks surrounding Russian anti-dumping investigations, and potential U.S. mine supply disruptions. However, they anticipate the market will soften and move toward balance in 2027, with annual average prices dropping 7% year-over-year to $1,330.

Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver fail to sustain initial gains triggered by the NFP miss

Outside Market Developments: U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by a disappointing 29k in September, well below the consensus estimate of +90k. Backmonth revisions totaled -60k. 

Healthcare and social assistance added roughly 43k jobs, meaning that without this single, publicly funded sector, total private-sector payrolls actually contracted. This underscores how narrowly based and vulnerable the broader labor market may be.

The unemployment rate edged up to 4.2% from 4.1%. Average hourly earnings rose just 0.1% on expectations of +0.3%; +3.0% y/y, versus expectations of +3.1%.

Today’s much weaker-than-expected jobs report dampens the labor market optimism that emerged just a month ago, and tamps down recent hawkish Fed leanings. Fed funds futures reflect further erosion of October rate hike expectations, now at 20.5%, versus 24.4% yesterday and 64.2% a month ago. Implied tightening for the remainder of the year stands at 20 bps.

Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar have pulled back from recent multi-decade and 18-month highs, respectively. Longer term, their direction will hinge on whether subsequent data confirm a sustained cooling in the labor market and inflation, or if resilience reemerges and forces policymakers to continue tightening.



Brent crude eased somewhat, weighed by the weak jobs report, signs of recovering Middle Eastern crude exports and reports that European nations may release strategic fuel reserves to ease supply pressures. However, Brent remains above $100 amid persistent Middle East tensions.

Russian President Putin warned that Moscow would deploy all weapons in its arsenal, including nuclear ones, if the exclave of Kaliningrad or other Russian territory faced a direct attack. Speaking at the Valdai Forum, he framed the remarks as a response to alleged NATO plans to isolate the Baltic region while insisting Russia has no intention of attacking Europe.

Kaliningrad is the headquarters of Russia's Baltic Fleet. The strategically critical ice-free port is separated from mainland Russia and provides Moscow a forward base to project power into northern and central Europe.

Markets are generally tilted toward risk-on on the reduced odds of a near-term Fed rate hike. The dovish surprise from today's NFP lifted equities, with the Nasdaq reaching record highs, as investors anticipate easier financial conditions ahead.

There's a relatively light data calendar next week centered on the U.S. services sector, FedSpeak, and consumer sentiment, alongside ongoing geopolitical and bond-market developments. Chinese markets remain closed for Golden Week, limiting trading activity and reducing liquidity in the early part of the week.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$5.42 (+0.13%)
5-Day Change: -$106.98 (-2.50%)
YTD Range: $3,945.52 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,838.64 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +0.81

Gold initially rallied on the NFP miss, but gains above $4,200 could not be sustained. Although yields eased today, they remain near levels last seen in 2002, while the dollar index is on track for a third consecutive solid weekly gain. As a result, gold is set to post a second straight weekly decline.



Resistance has been clarified by today's high at $4,225.02, which provides an important intervening barrier ahead of the high for this week at $4,284.54. The latter corresponds closely with the falling 100- and 20-day moving averages. The rising 50-day MA at $4,326.61 must be regained to ease pressure on the downside and suggest potential back to the August high at $4,696.31.

However, at this point, yield and dollar strength remain a significant headwind. A short-term breach of the lows for this week at $4,114.53/$4,111.49 and the $4,106.19 Fibonacci level would shift focus to congestive chart support around $4065/$4,0555.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.067 (+0.11%)
5-Day Change: -$3.391 (-5.27%)
YTD Range: $54.778 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $45.563 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +10.23

Silver popped briefly above $62 in the wake of today's jobs report as October rate hike odds eroded and yields and the dollar eased. However, the gains in the white metal could not be sustained, and the market subsequently fell to eight-week lows. Silver is poised for a second straight lower weekly close.



As noted earlier in the week, the drop below $60 leaves the $58.272 Fibonacci level vulnerable to a test. Below that, the 4-Aug low at $58.01 would be in play. Last month's low at $56.583 provides a decent intervening barrier ahead of July's cycle low at $54.778.

Today's intraday high at $62.079 now provides important resistance. If silver can muster a rebound to take out this level, a challenge of Monday's high at $64.289 would become likely. This area is bolstered by the convergence of the 20- and 50-day moving averages.

A climb back above the 100-day MA is needed to ease pressure on the downside and rehighlight the late-September highs at $67.513/529. Above that, the 9-Sep high at $68.314 provides a formidable barrier ahead of the August high at $71.104 and the 200-day MA at $72.961.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver fail to sustain intraday gains, despite tamer inflation readings

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: The PCE price index – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – rose 0.3% in August, below expectations of +0.4%, versus +0.1% in July; 3.4% y/y, unchanged from July and below consensus of 3.7%. Annualized core inflation was steady at 3.0% on expectations of 3.4%. The softer-than-expected inflation readings were aided in part by the BEA’s annual methodological revisions.

Personal consumption expenditures rose a robust 0.9% ($190.8 billion), driven by gains in both goods and services spending, while real (inflation-adjusted) PCE increased 0.6% – the strongest monthly advance in about a year. Personal income grew 0.2% and disposable personal income rose 0.3%, leaving the personal saving rate at 4.1%.

The final revision to Q2 GDP showed the U.S. economy grew at a revised 2.2% annualized rate, up sharply from the prior 1.5% reading and above expectations of 1.5%. Stronger consumer spending, business investment, and exports drove growth. Q1 growth was also revised up to 2.5% from 2.1%, painting a more robust picture of economic activity in the first half of the year.

Private-sector employers added 90k jobs in September according to the ADP National Employment Report, above expectations of 70k and a sharp rebound from the downward-revised +36k in August. Strength was concentrated in education/health services and leisure/hospitality. The stronger-than-expected reading points to resilient private hiring and raises the odds that Friday’s BLS nonfarm payrolls report will meet or beat the consensus estimate of 82k.

Evidence of resilient growth alongside cooler inflation takes near-term pressure off the Fed, supporting a more patient policy stance even as inflation remains above the 2% target. Fed funds futures are now suggesting the probability of an October Fed rate hike is down to 37.1% from 50.9% yesterday and 70.9% a week ago. However, the likelihood of at least 25 bps of tightening by year-end, while lower, remains quite high at 88.2%.

Brent crude is trading more than 3% higher today as lingering geopolitical risk from the ongoing conflict with Iran and stalled efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz outweigh recent signs of a recovery in Middle East oil exports. Uncertainty around US-Iran negotiations – particularly after President Trump rejected reports of offering sanctions relief – has supported prices, keeping a war-risk premium in the market despite Saudi Arabia’s partial restart of its East-West pipeline and higher regional shipment volumes.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$2.94 (+0.07%)
5-Day Change: -$79.42 (-1.85%)
YTD Range: $3,945.52 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,820.24 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +1.79

Gold briefly probed above $4,200 in early U.S. trading, lifted by the softer-than-expected PCE inflation data that tempered market bets on another Fed rate hike in October. However, the intraday gains could not be sustained amid still-elevated Treasury yields and a firm dollar. Focus now shifts to Friday's jobs report.



The earlier high at $4,218.99 now provides an additional barrier, along with $4,235.99, ahead of the important 100-, 20-, and 50-day moving averages. Those MA's really need to be regained to ease short-term pressure on the downside and provide some encouragement to the bull camp.

Support is well defined by the $4,111.49/$4,106.19 chart/Fibonacci area. If this zone is violated, a challenge of the August low at $4,022.62 would have to be considered, with potential for tests below $4,000. That being said, I still think the June low at $3,945.52 is likely to contain the downside.

One under-appreciated dynamic in today’s gold market is the divergence between Western investment flows and official-sector demand. While gold is down roughly 25% from its January peak amid elevated real yields and a firm dollar – prompting caution among ETF and speculative investors – central banks have kept buying aggressively.

China alone has reported purchases for 22 consecutive months (with actual buying likely higher than official figures), and global central-bank demand remains well above pre-2022 averages. This sovereign accumulation, driven more by reserve diversification and geopolitical risk management than by short-term rate expectations, is quietly providing a structural floor for the market.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.674 (-1.10%)
5-Day Change: -$3.314 (-5.14%)
YTD Range: $54.778 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $45.563 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +10.77

Silver has fallen to fresh eight-week lows, despite more moderate inflation readings this morning, as the broader macro backdrop (high yields, strong dollar) continues to dominate. Higher borrowing costs can slow manufacturing, capital spending, and investment in silver-intensive sectors such as solar, electronics, and EVs, thereby weighing on industrial demand for the metal.



With silver setting new lows and below key moving averages, tests below $60 are increasingly likely. Such a move would encourage a challenge of the $58.272 Fibonacci level. Below that, the 4-Aug low at $58.01 would be in play. Last month's low at $56.583 provides a decent intervening barrier ahead of July's cycle low at $54.778.

Today's earlier high at $61.703 now protects the previous range lows at $62.331/346. A move back into the range that held for most of September would bode well for a challenge of the key moving averages (50, 20, 100), which are converging above $64.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver tumble on hawkish Fed expectations, firm yields and dollar

Outside Market Developments: President Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal related to reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the conflict. While there have been indications that talks would continue this week, oil starts the week on the bid.

The rebound in oil is keeping inflation concerns and expectations for further Fed tightening elevated. Last week's hawkish FedSpeak is certainly contributing to those expectations and rising yields. More Fed speakers are on tap for this week, and the tone will likely be similarly hawkish.

Fed funds futures put the probability of an October rate hike at 65.9%, versus 64.2% on Friday, 57.6% a week ago, and 17.7% a month ago. The probability of at least one 25 bps rate hike before year-end remains above 90%.

The Fed's favored measure of inflation comes out on Wednesday. Headline PCE inflation for August is expected to hold steady at 3.7%. Core inflation is expected to edge up to 3.4%, from 3.3% in July.

The trade will also be focused on the September jobs report on Friday. The consensus estimate is +84k nonfarm payrolls. The jobless rate is anticipated to remain unchanged at 4.1%.

Five men were arrested early Sunday near RAF Fairford in England on suspicion of planning a terrorist attack with explosives after suspicious vans were reported approaching the base, which the U.S. has used for strikes on Iran. A local tip-off led to the arrests; investigators are probing a possible Iranian link.

Iran’s embassy in the UK has categorically rejected and strongly condemned any claims of its involvement as unfounded and malicious speculation. However, counter-terrorism police are pursuing “multiple new lines of enquiry.” Security has been raised to the highest level at RAF Fairford, and elevated at other sites as well. The UK’s national threat level remains SEVERE.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$130.24 (-3.04%)
5-Day Change: -$177.96 (-4.10%)
YTD Range: $3,945.52 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,760.05 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +0.37

Gold has tumbled to seven-week lows amid expectations of another Fed rate hike, which are buoying yields and the dollar. The lack of diplomatic progress last week toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz has caused oil to rebound, raising inflation concerns.



Today's breach of chart/Fibonacci support at $4,235.99/$4,232.32 triggered stop losses, clearing the way for a challenge of the next Fibonacci level at $4,106.19 (78.6% retrace of the late-summer rally). Below the latter, congestive chart support around $4065/$4,0555 would be the likely attraction.

With the yellow metal well below the important moving averages, the downside is indeed looking vulnerable. However, haven interest from elevated geopolitical tensions and the very inflation worries that are driving yields and the dollar higher should provide some underpinning ahead of the June low at $3,945.52.

India’s weak monsoon season could reduce gold demand during the festival/wedding season. Current monsoon rainfall is around 15% below average, highlighting negative implications for crop yields and farm incomes."Rural consumers account for over half of Indian gold demand, reflecting gold’s long-standing role as a store of wealth in areas where access to financial products has historically been more limited," according to the Heraeus Precious Appraisal.

Global ETFs saw net outflows of 1.6 tonnes, ending the string of consecutive weekly inflows at eleven. It was the first net outflow since the week ended 3-Jul.

A short-term climb back above the key moving averages is needed to take pressure off the downside and reinforce the notion that the low for the year was established in June. Intervening resistances are found at $4,235.99 and today's overseas high at $4,284.54.

Sustained central bank buying (especially from emerging markets seeking reserve diversification) and elevated global debt levels, which raise questions about fiat currency stability, are long-term supportive factors. Persistent geopolitical risks and gold’s role as an inflation and crisis hedge further underpin its structural demand beyond short-term rate and dollar pressures.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$1.863 (-2.78%)
5-Day Change: -$4.456 (-6.75%)
YTD Range: $54.778 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $45.563 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +11.89

Silver is extending last week’s losses to plumb seven-week lows, pressured by hawkish Fed expectations along with the resulting strength in yields and the dollar. The white metal has fallen more than 4% to begin the new week.



With the $61.015 Fibonacci level negated, tests below $60 must be considered. The next tier of Fibonacci support comes in at $58.272. Below that, challenges of the August low at $56.583 and the cycle low from July at $54.778 would have to be considered.

The rising 50-day moving average at $63.866 must be regained to set up further consolidation within the recent range. Secondary resistance is marked by today's overseas high at $64.289 and stands in front of the falling 20- and 100-day moving averages.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

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